Extending Castillo

[fondfoat]

I agree with a couple of other posters. Castillo will leave because he wants to go. He has spent long enough here. No matter what, he will get a nice payday, and good luck to him. In the end, it will just be what can the Reds get for him. That is the "fingers crossed" part.

[missionhockey21]

How I fear this will go.

[JFLegal]

best-case scenario is castillo and mahle both pitch well until close to the deadline, putting their trade value high (especially since they would be under team control for relatively cheap through 2023 and wouldn't just be a 2-month rental). then the reds could really get a nice haul if they play their cards right.

but hey, if a team wants to take a chance right now on castillo and mahle, of course you listen. as many others have mentioned in this thread, it's why the peter gammons blurb (i almost had forgotten about him) is not newsworthy at all. of course the reds will listen to offers. but the smart play is to wait it out until a team (really teams plural since we're talking about two starting pitchers who will likely be traded to different clubs) is ready to give the reds a nice haul of prospects. and maybe not even a haul. perhaps a one-for-one trade involving either castillo or mahle for their top overall prospect or something. give me quality over quantity for sure.

[Mitri]

I could see Castillo getting moved soon. Teams know what they’re getting, as long as he looks healthy it wouldn’t surprise me to see a team get ahead of the market and snatch him up. His value isn’t likely to waver much between now and then, but an injury could derail things, so I’d be fine with trading him ASAP.

Mahle needs time to regain form.

[Kc61]

If Reds are set to trade one or both of Castillo and Mahle, it will be a good test of Krall’s trade making ability.

He’s got to get the timing right, trade the guy(s) as close to max value as possible. And be prepared to walk away of he’s only given “salary dump” type offers.

It’s also another test for ownership - to get out of the way. They should not require a trade, Krall must be free to walk away. They also should not require that Moustakas be moved in the deal.

[757690]

My guess is that the Reds have been listening to offers on Castillo and Mahle this whole time. The offers just started to get interesting now that Castillo healthy.

[JFLegal]

If Reds are set to trade one or both of Castillo and Mahle, it will be a good test of Krall’s trade making ability.

He’s got to get the timing right, trade the guy(s) as close to max value as possible. And be prepared to walk away of he’s only given “salary dump” type offers.

It’s also another test for ownership - to get out of the way. They should not require a trade, Krall must be free to walk away. They also should not require that Moustakas be moved in the deal.

they usually fail at tests. i don't like their test-taking ability.

[Kc61]

they usually fail at tests. i don't like their test-taking ability.

Agree, but this is a test nevertheless.

I mean, fans have to be realistic too. Most teams don’t trade uber prospects in these deals.

But we’re now in a similar position as with guys like Cueto, Chapman, Frazier - though those were arguably stronger situations for the Reds.

So expectations would and should be relatively high.

[mth123]

I think we've seen enough seasons of not having a chance because the starting pitcher was blown out by the 4th inning day after day. I think good starting pitchers who can actually pitch in GABP are the key to this team moving forward and how quickly the rotation is stabilized will be the determining factor in how quickly this "rebuild" brings the team back to contention. I would be talking to Castillo about an extension, if it's clear that he wants out, of course you deal him for a solid return, but if he's willing to stay I'd discuss extension with him and would need to be blown away to deal him.

I'm not really into counting on secondary pitching prospects like Williamson, Phillips and Ashcraft as guys to stabilize the rotation. Even if Greene and Lodolo fulfill their potential (still a massive question IMO) and you bring in all the All Star caliber outfielders in the world, this is still a sub .500 team without another above average starting pitcher or two. They should be counting on Williamson, Ashcraft and Phillips to compete for one spot until proven otherwise, They are already counting on question marks by counting on Greene and Lodolo. Hopefully 2 or 3 of those guys can establish themselves and they can have one spot for the next wave (Abbott, Boyle, Bonin etc). Trying to fill multiple spots in the rotation at the same time is a much taller task than patching together the position side IMO. I'm in favor of signing Castillo as long as the deal isn't huge or for more than 4 years. If they could get him for 4 years, $75 Million, I'd sign him.

[Old school 1983]

I’m not a doctor, let alone one who examined Castillo, so I don’t know the extent of his shoulder injury, but from being a baseball fan, I do know they can be career killers. I’d not extend him. I’d be looking to move him and looking to move him fast. He could bring a huge return, and you’ll always be one tweak away from disaster. Get the return. It could set the team up for the next 5 years.

[WildcatFan]

It's like folks get MIB memory-wiped every time the Reds make an underwhelming trade for prospects that don't pan out.

Stop overvaluing everybody else's prospects. It basically never works. Sign and extend good major leaguers. This isn't hard.

[CaiGuy]

It's like folks get MIB memory-wiped every time the Reds make an underwhelming trade for prospects that don't pan out.

Stop overvaluing everybody else's prospects. It basically never works. Sign and extend good major leaguers. This isn't hard.

I see what you mean for sure about keeping good players around, but the same could be said for memories of being stuck with guys who contribute basically nothing during their decline years because of LTC's.

I wouldn't hate to see Castillo get paid by the Reds stick around, as I am a fan of his game. But it would of course depend on the length of the contact and details. If it were me, I would be pretty wary of giving him a really long-term or massive deal. He will be 30 this year, so what you get from him over the next 4-5 years or so will probably not be as good as the last 4-5 years.

[Old school 1983]

It's like folks get MIB memory-wiped every time the Reds make an underwhelming trade for prospects that don't pan out.

Stop overvaluing everybody else's prospects. It basically never works. Sign and extend good major leaguers. This isn't hard.

I’d be looking to move him to a contender with a crowded outfield or possibly finding a 3rd team to get involved so some MLB talent comes back too.

It’s not impossible to trade for good prospects or close/fresh MLB talent too. They just have to act intelligently.

[WildcatFan]

I see what you mean for sure about keeping good players around, but the same could be said for memories of being stuck with guys who contribute basically nothing during their decline years because of LTC's.

I wouldn't hate to see Castillo get paid by the Reds stick around, as I am a fan of his game. But it would of course depend on the length of the contact and details. If it were me, I would be pretty wary of giving him a really long-term or massive deal. He will be 30 this year, so what you get from him over the next 4-5 years or so will probably not be as good as the last 4-5 years.

I can understand the debate about Castillo specifically, but he's got fewer than 1,200 professional innings on his arm and has a fairly easy delivery.

But the idea that he must be traded for a hypothetical return of major league contributors is misguided. Prospects are basically always a gamble, and this Reds front office has not shown any ability to gamble well. How many times has your LTC scenario burned the Reds? Homer and maybe Suarez, any others? Compared to how many times a pool of prospects has flamed out, it's not particularly close.

[Old school 1983]

Expecting all prospects that were acquired in trades to pan out is a fools errand. However, that shouldn’t be the goal. The goal should be to consistently reload your system, and determine which guys will make it and let them move up, while determining what others are magic beans, and moving them for MLB pieces. We need to stop thinking of it as they traded so and so for such and such prospect per se. just that they reloaded the system, and we know some will flame out, some will be trade bait and others will be MLB players. IMO the Reds have done a decent job of trading the right prospects.