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Thread: Pitching Underperformance or Lack of Talent?

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    Pitching Underperformance or Lack of Talent?

    Offense has been down around the league but you may not know it if you only watched teams play against the Reds. I don't think I'm being hyperbolic in saying the pitching staff, to this point, has been an abject disaster.

    Starters
    Castillo (who looked like himself in his one start) and Minor would almost certainly help this staff. However, Mahle (6.46 ERA) was going to be in the rotation and 2 of Greene (7.62), Lodolo (5.52), Gutierrez (8.86) and Sanmartin (13.78) would be, as well. Mahle, Gutierrez and Sanmartin (small 2021 sample) have all taken a step back and it has been very bumpy for the rookies. Overton has been a nice surprise but I think it's safe to say it's unlikely to persist.

    Bullpen
    As we all predicted, Alexis Diaz (0.64 ERA) and Jeff Hoffman (1.62 ERA) have been fantastic. Wilson was good before the injury. The rest of the bullpen has been somewhere between "meh" (Cessa) and "woof" (everyone else). Sims (9.45 ERA) has had one really rough outing (5 ER) so I think his ERA will be ugly for a while but will be fine. Santillan was supposed to be the high leverage Antone replacement. It has not gone well. Strickland (6.59 ERA) was our prized bullpen acquisition. He has been better in May but it has been sketchy overall. Warren (7.20 ERA) was supposed to be a high leverage guy but has been pretty bad. Moreta (6.59) can't seem to replicate his 2021. The rest of the bullpen chaff has been predictably "chaff-y"

    Long story short, what gives here? DJ has earned a lot of rope but the results have been poor, even for established players. Has this staff just flat out underperformed? Were we sold a bit of a bill of goods about how good this staff would be? Are we still in small sample territory? Different stories for the Starters and Bullpen?

    What say you, Redszone?

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    Re: Pitching Underperformance or Lack of Talent?

    Quote Originally Posted by MoneyInTheBank View Post
    Offense has been down around the league but you may not know it if you only watched teams play against the Reds. I don't think I'm being hyperbolic in saying the pitching staff, to this point, has been an abject disaster.

    Starters
    Castillo (who looked like himself in his one start) and Minor would almost certainly help this staff. However, Mahle (6.46 ERA) was going to be in the rotation and 2 of Greene (7.62), Lodolo (5.52), Gutierrez (8.86) and Sanmartin (13.78) would be, as well. Mahle, Gutierrez and Sanmartin (small 2021 sample) have all taken a step back and it has been very bumpy for the rookies. Overton has been a nice surprise but I think it's safe to say it's unlikely to persist.

    Bullpen
    As we all predicted, Alexis Diaz (0.64 ERA) and Jeff Hoffman (1.62 ERA) have been fantastic. Wilson was good before the injury. The rest of the bullpen has been somewhere between "meh" (Cessa) and "woof" (everyone else). Sims (9.45 ERA) has had one really rough outing (5 ER) so I think his ERA will be ugly for a while but will be fine. Santillan was supposed to be the high leverage Antone replacement. It has not gone well. Strickland (6.59 ERA) was our prized bullpen acquisition. He has been better in May but it has been sketchy overall. Warren (7.20 ERA) was supposed to be a high leverage guy but has been pretty bad. Moreta (6.59) can't seem to replicate his 2021. The rest of the bullpen chaff has been predictably "chaff-y"

    Long story short, what gives here? DJ has earned a lot of rope but the results have been poor, even for established players. Has this staff just flat out underperformed? Were we sold a bit of a bill of goods about how good this staff would be? Are we still in small sample territory? Different stories for the Starters and Bullpen?

    What say you, Redszone?
    They certainly knee-capped Johnson by removing the two best starters from last year's rotation. But yeah, he hasn't really done much to improve the pen.

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    Re: Pitching Underperformance or Lack of Talent?

    Quote Originally Posted by MoneyInTheBank View Post
    Long story short, what gives here? DJ has earned a lot of rope but the results have been poor, even for established players. Has this staff just flat out underperformed? Were we sold a bit of a bill of goods about how good this staff would be? Are we still in small sample territory? Different stories for the Starters and Bullpen?

    What say you, Redszone?
    If you strip mine the team of talent the coaching doesn't make up for it.
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    Re: Pitching Underperformance or Lack of Talent?

    Lack of talent

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    Re: Pitching Underperformance or Lack of Talent?

    I'll go rushed/underperforming rotation guys. Partially because of injury (Castillo, Minor, Lodolo), partially because some guys were taken out of the oven a bit too soon and we're looking for improvement as the year goes on (Greene, Lodolo), a couple guys who just aren't very good (Vlad, SanMartin) and one mystery (Mahle). My purely speculative theory is Mahle is putting too much pressure on himself to be the man. Last year he was surrounded by solid to very good vets with Gray, Miley and Castillo, Without them so far this year, he became the default opening day starter and "the man" everyone was looking to when order needed to be restored. I really wonder if that has been in his head. It will be interesting to see how he improves now that Castillo is back to take that burden. Of course he could just get better because he's better than he's pitched and it would have nothing to do with any of that. Still I wonder if it's having an effect. I also wonder if it's effecting Greene as well.

    In the bullpen, I just think they need better guys. Warren is a 29 year old who has been a minor league shuttle guy his whole career. He shows flashes, but I'm not trusting that he's suddenly a late inning reliever. at age 29 when he couldn't stick in the big leagues until now. It happens, but not something to plan on IMO. . Maybe worth a shot as the 8th guy in the pen to see what happens, but his 20 good innings or so last year don't make him a fireman or closer. Same goes for Sims. Other than 25 or so innings in the Covid year, he's been a 5+ ERA guy his whole career. I'd need a lot more than 25 innings in a weird year to convince me of anything different. Moreta is a minor league reliever. That already makes him a lesser pitcher than a minor league starter. These guys are the longest of shots. Most good big league relievers are guys who were solid starting prospects in the minor leagues. Santillan is a first year guy (not sure if he still qualifies as a rookie). I think he has the stuff, but guys breaking in have bumps in the Road. Cessa seems to be pitching to what he is, which is OK as a multi-inning guy for the middle innings. Hoffman was a highly regarded starting prospect once upon a time. Maybe he's figured it out as a reliever, but its too soon to trust it. Diaz, so far, so good, but see comments about Moreta. Wilson was doing well before he was injured. He has many solid seasons before last year's debacle. He may be Ok when he's back, but I like him better as the second lefty. This team lacks a proven, "can face all comers and doesn't need to be matched up" closer, a late inning lefty and maybe another late inning fireman type.

    All these guys are potential big leaguers, but none are proven high leverage guys and forcing them into that role is gong to lead to a lot of trial and error. That's what we are seeing.
    Last edited by mth123; 05-11-2022 at 11:33 AM.
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    Re: Pitching Underperformance or Lack of Talent?

    The team last year was not very good but incredibly lucky. They got nearly 15 bWar out of a 37 year old 1st baseman, a likely career year from Mahle, and a 34 year old journeyman lefthander. It was, IMO, a bad team that got lucky enough to be a mediocre one and had no reason to think it was going to be any better than a 70-75 win team this year (and witness what Votto, Gray, and Miley have done thus far this year). They may end up no worse, but less lucky, by the end of this year, but where they have signally failed, in my view, is again to take the bullpen seriously enough. That's the place where a couple of high quality acquisitions could have made an extraordinary difference and they didn't get it done. One question I'd ask at this point is whether it would be better to move Santillan back to the rotation--after a long stint at Louisville. Which is more likely: that he become a serviceable 5th starter or an effective reliever? I don't know but I think it's worth considering. The Strickland acquisition seems just like another blunder.

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    Re: Pitching Underperformance or Lack of Talent?

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    I'll go rushed/underperforming rotation guys. Partially because of injury (Castillo, Minor, Lodolo), partially because some guys were taken out of the oven a bit too soon and we're looking for improvement as the year goes on (Greene, Lodolo), a couple guys who just aren't very good (Vlad, SanMartin) and one mystery (Mahle). My purely speculative theory is Mahle is putting too much pressure on himself to be the man. Last year he was surrounded by solid to very good vets with Gray, Miley and Castillo, Without them so far this year, he became the default opening day starter and "the man" everyone was looking to when order needed to be restored. I really wonder if that has been in his head. It will be interesting to see how he improves now that Castillo is back to take that burden. Of course he could just get better because he's better than he's pitched and it would have nothing to do with any of that. Still I wonder if it's having an effect. I also wonder if it's effecting Greene as well.

    In the bullpen, I just think they need better guys. Warren is a 29 year old who has been a minor league shuttle guy his whole career. He shows flashes, but I'm not trusting that he's suddenly a late inning reliever. at age 29 when he couldn't stick in the big leagues until now. It happens, but not something to plan on IMO. . Maybe worth a shot as the 8th guy in the pen to see what happens, but his 20 good innings or so last year don't make him a fireman or closer. Same goes for Sims. Other than 25 or so innings in the Covid year, he's been a 5+ ERA guy his whole career. I'd need a lot more than 25 innings in a weird year to convince me of anything different. Moreta is a minor league reliever. That already makes him a lesser pitcher than a minor league starter. These guys are the longest of shots. Most good big league relievers are guys who were solid starting prospects in the minor leagues. Santillan is a first year guy (not sure if he still qualifies as a rookie). I think he has the stuff, but guys breaking in have bumps in the Road. Cessa seems to be pitching to what he is, which is OK as a multi-inning guy for the middle innings. Hoffman was a highly regarded starting prospect once upon a time. Maybe he's figured it out as a reliever, but its too soon to trust it. Diaz, so far, so good, but see comments about Moreta. Wilson was doing well before he was injured. He has many solid seasons before last year's debacle. He may be Ok when he's back, but I like him better as the second lefty. This team lacks a proven, "can face all comers and doesn't need to be matched up" closer, a late inning lefty and maybe another late inning fireman type.

    All these guys are potential big leaguers, but none are proven high leverage guys and forcing them into that role is gong to lead to a lot of trial and error. That's what we are seeing.
    You make a lot of good points here but a few I would like to push back on:

    Not sure I can get on board with a blanket statement than Minor League relievers are the longest of shots
    I think you are seriously underselling Sims. By no means elite but he's under 4.50 as a reliever
    If Art Warren is a complete nothing, a lot of smart baseball people (here and elsewhere) will have been wrong about him
    I would be remiss if I didn't point out still "breaking in" Tony Santillan has more MLB innings than Warren and Moreta

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    Re: Pitching Underperformance or Lack of Talent?

    The starting staff should have included Castillo, Minor, and perhaps Lodolo. I don’t think you one can evaluate the SP staff without a heavy emphasis on injuries. The Reds have had an extraordinary number of injuries this season.

    The bullpen has some talent but is limited by an absence of proven back-end relievers. So I view the major deficiency there to be personnel.

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    Re: Pitching Underperformance or Lack of Talent?

    Quote Originally Posted by MoneyInTheBank View Post
    You make a lot of good points here but a few I would like to push back on:

    Not sure I can get on board with a blanket statement than Minor League relievers are the longest of shots
    I think you are seriously underselling Sims. By no means elite but he's under 4.50 as a reliever
    If Art Warren is a complete nothing, a lot of smart baseball people (here and elsewhere) will have been wrong about him
    I would be remiss if I didn't point out still "breaking in" Tony Santillan has more MLB innings than Warren and Moreta
    I think just the opposite of Warren. The cumulative big league book on him is that he's a AAA shuttle guy. He's 29 and still not an established big leaguer.

    A 4.50 ERA as a reliever is terrible. relievers have all the advantage. They don't go through the line-up multiple times and even if they work back to back days, its rarely the ssme guys they faced the day before. An average releiver shiuld have an ERA a full run better than an average starter IMO.

    As far as minor league relievers go, these are guys that management has determined while still in the minors that they are lesser pitchers not capable of being a starter. IMO, they are already starting way behind other guys they compete with for bullpen jobs (guys who made it to the majors as a starter and were converted to the pen).

    Agree about Warren and Moreta having less innings than Santillan. Exactly why its crazy to designate them as guys to hold down key roles in the first place. They are last guy in the bullpen types until they earn a more important role. The Reds gave them those roles by default. You need high leverage guys. The Reds built an entire pen out of low leverage guys, reclamation projects and unproven journeyman. Get three or four high leverage guys and pick the best of what's left and this pen would be vastly improved.
    All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!

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    Re: Pitching Underperformance or Lack of Talent?

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    I think just the opposite of Warren. The cumulative big league book on him is that he's a AAA shuttle guy. He's 29 and still not an established big leaguer.

    A 4.50 ERA as a reliever is terrible. relievers have all the advantage. They don't go through the line-up multiple times and even if they work back to back days, its rarely the ssme guys they faced the day before. An average releiver shiuld have an ERA a full run better than an average starter IMO.

    As far as minor league relievers go, these are guys that management has determined while still in the minors that they are lesser pitchers not capable of being a starter. IMO, they are already starting way behind other guys they compete with for bullpen jobs (guys who made it to the majors as a starter and were converted to the pen).

    Agree about Warren and Moreta having less innings than Santillan. Exactly why its crazy to designate them as guys to hold down key roles in the first place. They are last guy in the bullpen types until they earn a more important role. The Reds gave them those roles by default. You need high leverage guys. The Reds built an entire pen out of low leverage guys, reclamation projects and unproven journeyman. Get three or four high leverage guys and pick the best of what's left and this pen would be vastly improved.
    My point is either all 3 are breaking in or all 3 are scrap heap guys. I don't see how Santillan gets more rope despite having more MLB innings. I don't dispute the fact that the Reds management malpractice pushed them up in role.

    Never said Sims was great. I'm saying lumping his starter stats in to make him look worse isn't telling the story

    You have every right to feel that way about Warren but he has "stuff" (like Santillan), so I just don't see the dismissiveness due to a late breakthrough

    It seems ludicrous to me to dismiss a player, not on merit, but because he pitched in the bullpen in the minors.

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    Re: Pitching Underperformance or Lack of Talent?

    It’s hard enough to pitch in the equivalent of the Baker Bowl. Then you have lack of talent. Talented but unable to pitch to that talent pitchers. And you have this 1930s style pitching staff.

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    Re: Pitching Underperformance or Lack of Talent?

    I think this pen would be better if they had more consistent use of the more talented arms Santillan Warren they started out well because they were used regularly in spring training and at the start but they have been seldom used during the 1-20 streak at it shows with their inconsistent command. I think buy saving them for high leverage situations got them rusty. They are relievers having 4 or 5 days rest is foolish.

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    Re: Pitching Underperformance or Lack of Talent?

    Pitching Underperformance or Lack of Talent?

    Yes.
    Baseball is like church. Many attend, few understand

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    Re: Pitching Underperformance or Lack of Talent?

    Quote Originally Posted by MoneyInTheBank View Post
    My point is either all 3 are breaking in or all 3 are scrap heap guys. I don't see how Santillan gets more rope despite having more MLB innings. I don't dispute the fact that the Reds management malpractice pushed them up in role.

    Never said Sims was great. I'm saying lumping his starter stats in to make him look worse isn't telling the story

    You have every right to feel that way about Warren but he has "stuff" (like Santillan), so I just don't see the dismissiveness due to a late breakthrough

    It seems ludicrous to me to dismiss a player, not on merit, but because he pitched in the bullpen in the minors.
    Because Warren is 29 and has proven to be a shuttle guy for several year and because Moreta is a minor league reliever who was already determined to be a lesser pitcher than Santillan who started his entire minor league tenure. That's why Santillan gets more rope. Same Reason Hunter Greene will get more rope that Reiver SanMartin. He's younger, with a better scouting report and has more promise.
    All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!

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    Re: Pitching Underperformance or Lack of Talent?

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Because Warren is 29 and has proven to be a shuttle guy for several year and because Moreta is a minor league reliever who was already determined to be a lesser pitcher than Santillan who started his entire minor league tenure. That's why Santillan gets more rope. Same Reason Hunter Greene will get more rope that Reiver SanMartin. He's younger, with a better scouting report and has more promise.
    I reject your hypothesis that being a minor league reliever makes you a lesser pitcher than a starter with no regard for performance or pitch quality. Moreta wasn't some middle of the road reliever. He had an ERA of 1.00 in 53 innings at AA & AAA. Warren's 2022 7.20 ERA has pushed his career ERA to 2.72 and was quite good in the minors. But if performance doesn't matter, only if you are a young-ish starter, I guess I'm just doing it wrong

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