The Great Red Surge: Top 10

[Bourgeois Zee]

Thought it might prove interesting to chart the top Red prospects over the course of the season as to their production, helium, et al, as it relates to their relative rankings on the list. I'll provide a consensus ranking of the prospects not on the Red major league roster from a variety of sources (Fangraphs, BA, Doug Gray, MLB, et al.) and we can argue the relative production they've put up over a period of time. Let's start with an Opening Day top 10 list. Those graduated to the majors/ not to be ranked include Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, Jose Barrero, and Tony Santillan.

1. Elly De La Cruz
Most prognosticators had De La Cruz either third or fourth in the Reds' top 10. His massive upside and power/ speed potential at a premium defensive position made him the early talk of the Red backlots and generated Dayton buzz not seen in a long time.

2. Brandon Williamson
The top prospect brought over in the Winker/ Suarez deal, Williamson was largely seen as a back of the top 100 starting pitching prospect with good stuff, a solid clue as to how to pitch, and a good bet to begin the season in the upper minors. The future looked bright.

3. Matt McLain
McLain was largely seen as an honorable mention guy amongst most top 100 lists. There were questions about his toolset and whether he had carrying tools or was merely a second division starter. Fangraphs was particularly down on him, grading him as a 45 FV infielder and 7th in the Red system. (Already, Fangraphs' list looks super suspect.)

4. Jay Allen
This is where the rankings begin to really differ. Allen was largely ranked just behind McLain in most lists. Fangraphs ranked him 12th. (Again, that Fangraphs' list? Ugh.)

5. Graham Ashcraft
Again, most prospect evaluators really liked him, but Fangraphs did not. 17th on their list, while the others had him well inside the top 10 (with a couple inside the top five).

6. Chase Petty
Some of the sites had already published when Petty was acquired, but for most, he ranked right around Ashcraft. The added risk of a young hurler in the low levels slid him to 6th in our list.

7. Austin Hendrick
Based here nearly completely on the potential for thunder in his bat, Hendrick had worries about his K rate and the holes in his swing.

8. Rece Hinds
Based on short PAs in Daytona and Arizona wherein he mashed, Hinds was viewed as a power guy with similar tools to Hendrick, but a troubling penchant for getting hurt. A move to RF hurt his value a bit, but the hope was that he'd remain healthy enough to show off that power.

9. Daniel Vellojin
Based almost entirely on Fangraphs' view of him as a top prospect, Vellojin ranked 9th overall. Solid defender with a great eye at the plate and some power he hadn't yet proven, the hope was that he'd blossom in Daytona or Dayton.

10. Tyler Callihan
The 10th spot on the list could belonged to the oft-injured Callihan. A plus hit tool and lots of hurts, dings, and surgeries kept him off the field and on the mind of talent evaluators.

Honorable Mention:

- Bryce Bonnin
- Christian Roa
- Mat Nelson
- Andrew Abbott
- Jose Torres

[WrongVerb]

Thought it might prove interesting to chart the top Red prospects over the course of the season as to their production, helium, et al, as it relates to their relative rankings on the list. I'll provide a consensus ranking of the prospects not on the Red major league roster from a variety of sources (Fangraphs, BA, Doug Gray, MLB, et al.) and we can argue the relative production they've put up over a period of time. Let's start with an Opening Day top 10 list. Those graduated to the majors/ not to be ranked include Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, Jose Barrero, and Tony Santillan.

1. Elly De La Cruz
Most prognosticators had De La Cruz either third or fourth in the Reds' top 10. His massive upside and power/ speed potential at a premium defensive position made him the early talk of the Red backlots and generated Dayton buzz not seen in a long time.

2. Brandon Williamson
The top prospect brought over in the Winker/ Suarez deal, Williamson was largely seen as a back of the top 100 starting pitching prospect with good stuff, a solid clue as to how to pitch, and a good bet to begin the season in the upper minors. The future looked bright.

3. Matt McLain
McLain was largely seen as an honorable mention guy amongst most top 100 lists. There were questions about his toolset and whether he had carrying tools or was merely a second division starter. Fangraphs was particularly down on him, grading him as a 45 FV infielder and 7th in the Red system. (Already, Fangraphs' list looks super suspect.)

4. Jay Allen
This is where the rankings begin to really differ. Allen was largely ranked just behind McLain in most lists. Fangraphs ranked him 12th. (Again, that Fangraphs' list? Ugh.)

5. Graham Ashcraft
Again, most prospect evaluators really liked him, but Fangraphs did not. 17th on their list, while the others had him well inside the top 10 (with a couple inside the top five).

6. Chase Petty
Some of the sites had already published when Petty was acquired, but for most, he ranked right around Ashcraft. The added risk of a young hurler in the low levels slid him to 6th in our list.

7. Austin Hendrick
Based here nearly completely on the potential for thunder in his bat, Hendrick had worries about his K rate and the holes in his swing.

8. Rece Hinds
Based on short PAs in Daytona and Arizona wherein he mashed, Hinds was viewed as a power guy with similar tools to Hendrick, but a troubling penchant for getting hurt. A move to RF hurt his value a bit, but the hope was that he'd remain healthy enough to show off that power.

9. Daniel Vellojin
Based almost entirely on Fangraphs' view of him as a top prospect, Vellojin ranked 9th overall. Solid defender with a great eye at the plate and some power he hadn't yet proven, the hope was that he'd blossom in Daytona or Dayton.

10. Tyler Callihan
The 10th spot on the list could belonged to the oft-injured Callihan. A plus hit tool and lots of hurts, dings, and surgeries kept him off the field and on the mind of talent evaluators.

Honorable Mention:

- Bryce Bonnin
- Christian Roa
- Mat Nelson
- Andrew Abbott
- Jose Torres

Wither Siani?

[Bourgeois Zee]

Mid-May Surge Rankings:

1. Elly De La Cruz (<-->)
Still tantalizes with potential. Still has a penchant for jaw-dropping power. Still playing a premium defensive position. Elly De La Cruz is now showing more patience. (It would be hard to show less.) An 8.1 BB% isn't world-beating, but it's nearly double his BB rate last season. So far, he's got a 126 wRC+ as a 19 year old in High A. That's solid enough. Combine it with a capable SS glove, and he's still a premium prospect. We'll need to see more as the weather heats up, but he's almost 2 1/2 years younger than the average High A player.
New ranking: Based on upside and youth, still the king.

2. Brandon Williamson ()
In a slight surprise, Williamson began the year in AA, not AAA. Even worse, instead of dominated, he was absolutely drilled. He couldn't find the plate. It's been a struggle, but there are slight signs he's coming out of it. We'll see.
New ranking: 7

3. Matt McLain ()
McLain has been consistently good and shown a power bat most prospect evaluators didn't see coming. His .593 SLG and 8 HR have been a pleasant surprise, even as he's been pushed rather aggressively to AA. The 144 wRC+ so far has proven the Reds correct. Even better, it looks like he might well be able to stick at SS or at least be a real defensive asset up the middle.
New ranking: 2

4. Jay Allen ()
Allen isn't hitting the ball as hard as De La Cruz, but he's showing that his speed is a weapon. Not only that, he's got a 15+% BB rate and is only King on 20.2% of his PAs. That's really solid for a 19 year old. He needs to show more power, but part of what might be hindering him is the league-- it's notorious for suppressing pop. Overall, he's a true CF with serious wheels and an idea at the plate. That 142 wRC+ shows some nice peripherals.
New ranking: 3

5. Graham Ashcraft ()
Elite groundball tendencies still remain, but the K rate has positively dried up. Still has really, really good stuff, but it's playing down. Really struggled throwing strikes early, but has shown some signs of breaking out a bit. Still, he's put up an elite ERA over short innings.
New ranking: Same as the old one, steady eddy five.

6. Chase Petty
Petty's been very solid in Daytona. As a 19-year-old, he's throwing strikes and keeping the ball in the yard. He's also solidifying his pre-season ranking. Nothing bad to report. He just needs innings-- and luck as to not get injured.
New ranking: Same, 6.

7. Austin Hendrick
Still has holes in his swing, as attested by near 40% K rate. Not walking as much, but showing more power. Old man skills already. That's worrying. Lack of success in Florida State League also worrying. 123 wRC+ feels much different than De La Cruz's 126. Part of it is the two-year age gap. Part of it is how they get there.
New ranking: 9th

8. Rece Hinds
Woof. Not a great start of the season for Hinds. Pushed to Dayton, he's struggled to find much of anything positive so far this season. The move to the OF has been pretty easy. He needs to get it going in a hurry.
New ranking: Outside the top 10

9. Daniel Vellojin
Hurt apparently, he hasn't played so far this year.
New ranking: Outside the top 10.

10. Tyler Callihan
See Vellojin.
New ranking: Outside the top 10

New to the top 10:
Andrew Abbott
Abbott could be the Midwest League's Pitcher of the Year. He's been dominant in just about every fact of the game. As a result, he was pushed up to AA. So far in his first real taste of professional baseball, he's showing three really solid pitches, including a deceptive fastball that Danny Graves absolutely loves. That curve was nearly unhittable in A Ball. We'll see what he's made of starting tonight with his first taste of AA.
New ranking: 4

Jose Torres
All he's done since being drafted is hit. That 148 wRC+ in High A looks especially good when it's supplemented with solid defense at a premium position. Torres is showing real pop and a solid hit tool so far. He's tough to K too. That's going to need to prove true as he moves up the ladder-- it doesn't look like he's going to take many walks. His 8 SB are a really nice "soft skill" too. Can't ask for more than he's given.
New ranking: 5

Joe Boyle
If Abbott's not the Midwest League PotY, Boyle undoubtedly is. He's doing it so differently than anyone else that it's hard to know what the Reds have with him. He's been virtually unhittable all season long-- how does a 1.2 h/9 even compute? Those are video game numbers. He K's a ton of hitters too, but his BB rate is equally ridiculous at 7.9. A 22, it's not like Boyle is dominating due to age, but it'd be great to see what he could do against more advanced hitters. At worst, he's a Tanner Rainey type in the pen. Most likely, he's a solid relief option as long as he comes in with a clean inning. But I really want to see what he might be able to do just because what he's doing is so unique.
New ranking: 8

Mike Siani
Siani was the forgotten guy, largely. He's already been labeled a bust by a couple RedsZone would-be experts. Most of us pegged him as a fifth OF at best. But he changed his approach in the AFL last year and so far this season has shown that might not be a mirage. So too has he added some power to his swing. The speed and CF defense are still there. Now, he's King far, far less. As a result, he's got a 122 wRC+ in AA as a 22-year-old and is showing that he might have developed a hit tool over the break. That's enough to make him a really useful guy-- if these numbers stick.
New ranking: 10

[RED VAN HOT]

Not sure why some were so quick to relegate Siani to fifth outfielder status. He was obviously hurt last year as evidenced by his lack of playing time in CF to start the season. I'm a big believer in CF defense. A good SS can turn singles into outs. A good CF'er turns xbh's into outs. Further, he steals bases and has a low K rate. He may not be the type of player that draws all star accolades, but he is the type of player on winning teams.

[texasdave]

I like Carson Spiers as a sleeper.

[Bourgeois Zee]

Not sure why some were so quick to relegate Siani to fifth outfielder status. He was obviously hurt last year as evidenced by his lack of playing time in CF to start the season. I'm a big believer in CF defense. A good SS can turn singles into outs. A good CF'er turns xbh's into outs. Further, he steals bases and has a low K rate. He may not be the type of player that draws all star accolades, but he is the type of player on winning teams.

Before this season, Siani hadn't posted a 700 OPS since his professional debut in 2018. 1000-ish minor league PAs with a 650 OPS doesn't inspire much confidence that he'd hit at all.

While it's been a welcome change, the assumption that he'd hit has always been a questionable one. Scouts who saw him in HS questioned his bat even as he was drafted. It's great that he's found something that's worked so far in AA, but I'm not sure I'd be down on RedsZone for the collective take, as it were.

[RED VAN HOT]

Before this season, Siani hadn't posted a 700 OPS since his professional debut in 2018. 1000-ish minor league PAs with a 650 OPS doesn't inspire much confidence that he'd hit at all.

While it's been a welcome change, the assumption that he'd hit has always been a questionable one. Scouts who saw him in HS questioned his bat even as he was drafted. It's great that he's found something that's worked so far in AA, but I'm not sure I'd be down on RedsZone for the collective take, as it were.

If he played a corner, I'd be there with you. I'm slow to give up on those that play a premium CF.

[JCM11]

Connor Phillips has some really good looking numbers in Dayton. 3.30 ERA, 4.8 H/9, 14.1 K/9 in 30 innings, and is a full two years younger than league average.

[Bourgeois Zee]

If he played a corner, I'd be there with you. I'm slow to give up on those that play a premium CF.

Were Siani to have put up a major league line like his minor league numbers, he'd have to be the greatest outfielder in the history of the game to sniff even part-time status.

[icehole3]

Call me crazy but from what I've seen Siani is no different than Jay Allen except Allen is younger but Siani has way more power. Both cover the same ground in center and both are equal in base stealing, they're so fast sometimes they don't even draw throws.

Joe Boyle IMO is trying to control his breaking ball so I could see him staying in Dayton all year but other than that Boyle is taking the league by storm. In road games the other team announcers have shown admiration for Boyle.

McLain and Cruz have shown impressive power both have light tower power. Even Cruz's foul shots draw raves from announcers. This kid can hit it out of sight. McLain as well, haven't seen blasts like McLain and Cruz since the Jay Bruce days.

I am not a scout but my eyes tell me that both Conner Phillips and Bonnin are more impressive than Abbott, Williamson and Ashcraft. Seen Petty once he can throw hard as well probably belongs in Dayton.

Carson Spiers last start raised an eyebrow, worked his breaking ball for about 3 innings and then came back with a sneaky FB in later innings but it was just 1 start. Ashcraft last start was the first time I saw him control the fastball so I can see him in Cincy soon if that FB stays under control.

Torres looks like a major leaguer right now. High baseball IQ, hitting breaking balls for HRs, love this kid. A few guys that caught my eye were Alex McGarry, Austin Hendrick (surprised with his athletic ability), TJ Hopkins and Isiah Gilliam. I've watched about 90 % of Dragon and Lookout games this season and 3 Daytona games so these are just my thoughts. I've posted some gifs to back up some of my sightings.

[RED VAN HOT]

Were Siani to have put up a major league line like his minor league numbers, he'd have to be the greatest outfielder in the history of the game to sniff even part-time status.

I don't want to argue about it. Let's both hope he continues to put up more AA numbers and go from there.

[Bourgeois Zee]

Call me crazy but from what I've seen Siani is no different than Jay Allen except Allen is younger but Siani has way more power. Both cover the same ground in center and both are equal in base stealing, they're so fast sometimes they don't even draw throws.

Allen's three years and a bit younger.

By the time Allen is Siani's age, he's likely in the major leagues. (Assuming they both follow similar arcs and progress one level at a time.)

[icehole3]

Allen's three years and a bit younger.

By the time Allen is Siani's age, he's likely in the major leagues. (Assuming they both follow similar arcs and progress one level at a time.)

I’ll need to see Allen hit with some power, he can get it to the gaps. Siani has legit power to all fields right now. He matches Allen step for step speed wise. I can pull some clips of both.

[Mitri]

I’ll need to see Allen hit with some power, he can get it to the gaps. Siani has legit power to all fields right now. He matches Allen step for step speed wise. I can pull some clips of both.

How much of this is park factors, though? Just asking, I truly have no idea how Chattanooga and the other parks in that league play. I feel like we might be comparing dudes who hit in vastly different environments. That said, I love what both CFs are doing. Allen is a stud, but Siani has been perhaps the best story of the minors season so far.

I agree with texasdave, Spiers might crack my top 10 at this point.

Elly
McLain
Allen
Torres
Abbott
Phillips
Siani
Spiers
Boyle
Petty

[Bourgeois Zee]

Spiers might crack my top 10 at this point.

Woo, I don't know about that one.

I think he's likely a multi-inning relief arm in the majors. I get some Antone vibes from him, though his stuff isn't quite that good.

Maybe a poor man's Lucas Sims?