The Great Red Surge: Top 10

[krm1580]

Boyle is a guy that needs to move up. Blowing pitches by overmatched hitters is not going help his development. At some point guys start laying off pitches out of the zone and he is either going to have to improve his command or figure out how to consistently get guys out front from 3-1 or 3-0 counts

[Bourgeois Zee]

Boyle is a guy that needs to move up. Blowing pitches by overmatched hitters is not going help his development. At some point guys start laying off pitches out of the zone and he is either going to have to improve his command or figure out how to consistently get guys out front from 3-1 or 3-0 counts

Or conversely, he's so difficult to square up that he's actually pitching backwards, making him really hard to figure out.

[RED VAN HOT]

Mid-June Surge Update

The Top 10 (Performance-based):

1. Elly De La Cruz
If De La Cruz could occupy the entire top five, that'd be how much he's dominated over the past few weeks. Kid's young, ultra-talented, plays the most demanding position on the diamond, and is actually (finally) learning to take a walk. .337/.385/.674/ 1.060 over the last month and seven walks in his last eight games hint at the game-changing talent The Kid possesses. RTG is right: Elly De La Cruz is likely going to be a top 10 prospect as early as the halfway point of this season.

2. Alex McGarry
Since the move to AA, he's gone .333/ .389/ .576/ .965 and gotten at least one hit in all but one game. He's K'ed 10 times in those 36 PAs, but the BA and power look legit. At 24, he's a bit old for AA, but he'll be 25 or 26 if he continues to play this way during his major league debut. That'll work. Still waiting for the league to figure him out, so there may be a swoon coming, but at this point, McGarry looks like a legitimate breakout candidate.

3. Joe Boyle
An ERA of 0.78 seems impossible. As ERA that low with so little prospect excitement seems impossibler. Throw in his 80 fastball, 80 slider, and relative youth (22), and it's the impossiblest situation of all. Boyle has been awe-inspiring all season, yet remarkably few Red fans (let alone national pundits) have seemed to take notice or care. Why is that? Dunno. I'm enjoying it. Kid's turned himself into a top 100 prospect in my eyes. Even if he goes about getting outs completely differently than anyone else in the game. (Which may be why... Nah, let's not overthink it...)

4. Tyler Callihan
Back from the injury scrapheap. Again. Callihan's a plus hitter who's been inendiary lately-- four multi-hit games in his last five overall and a .309 BA in June show he's finally getting enough PAs to see that tool work. He just need at-bats, IMO, to cement himself as a viable plus hitter. The question is whether he'll hit for any power. Seven doubles (including five since the calendar switched to June) indicate he might...?

5. Carlos Jorge
You know the best thing about old crushes? When they hit right, they're forever. So it is with Jorge. He shows up just over a week ago in the ACL, and it's like he never left my brainpan. It helps that he's gone off for a .306/ .432/ .667/ 1.099 line as an 18-year-old. Add in 6 SB without getting caught and the fact that he plays SS (and so far at least, profiles to stick there), a premium defensive position. What's not to love?

6. Yassel Pino
The Reds shifted 1B throughout the system and Pino was the beneficiary in low A. He moved up from the ACL and has hit very well in Daytona. He's 20, so he's slightly younger than league average, but it's nice to see, at any rate. Pino showed both patience and pop last year in the Dominican. If he can "skip" the ACL, that augers well for his development. One to watch, at this rate.

7. Ruben Ibarra
Speaking of one to watch, Ibarra is hard to miss. Ibarra got moved up to High A after a torrid last month in low A. He's a massive mountain of a man who's easy to root for. Like to see that power show through in Dayton a bit more now that he's escaped the Florida State League. We'll see.

8. Connor Phillips
The Dragons have needed Phillips to show out as they've struggled to finish the first half. Instead, he's been... adequate. His peripherals looks shiny. He's young. It'll be intereting to see how he reacts to the "pennant race" just ahead of him, wherein every pitch matters. That's good stress, IMO, and telling.

9. Javi Rivera
Solid numbers, but the peripherals are even better. He's not walking anyone (1.6/9) and still K'ing quite a few (9.6/9). That'll work. He's old for the league, but this is his first taste of pro ball. And his last month has built on the one before that. A call-up to Dayton at the halfway point might be in his future.

10. Chase Petty
See Rivera. Subtract three years. The Reds are really limiting his innings. Which is good for his health, but makes it difficult to get a read on his development. Like Rivera, he's K'ing batters at a high rate and limited the free passes. He's also been hard to hit. At this point, that's super convenient.

The Bottom Five (Who's Struggled?)

1. Austin Hendrick
Is he still considered a prospect? The hole in his swing is LARGE. He's Samone Peters with better defense at this point. I'm hoping this is the impetus to re-work that swing completely.

2. Jose Torres
As good as he looked early this year, Torres has struggled for a month plus at this point. And he's playing down a league based on his Power 5 pedigree. Ah well, at least we still have Elly.

3. Matt McLain
What happened to the plus hit tool guy the Reds drafted? Dunno. He's scuffling. Thankfully, McLain has other tools-- including enough pop to keep opposing pitchers honest-- that can be worked on while he gets untracked at the plate. Not a great month.

4. Brandon Williamson
Perhaps it's not fair to lump him in with the others on this august list, but Williamson's been no more than cromulent in a league he should be dominating. Way, way too many walks. And he doesn't appear to be getting any better at limiting them.

5. Jose Barrero
I'm giving him a bit of a free pass because he didn't have a Spring Training, but the K's are a concern. As they are up and down the Red system. The low BA is too. The power's back and will play, but he needs to find that bat that say him tear up Lousiville last year before I want him promoted.

Nice write-up.

Thanks for bringing Pino to my attention.

Many of the position players are not accustomed to the grind of 6 games a week. Nagging minor pains and injuries could be expected to take a toll.

I would add Siani to the list of unexpected surprises. I think he needs a mid-season promotion. Plus defense with speed a little pop as well. He gets an audition if Senzel doesn't come around in the second half.
Despite somewhat disappointing performance, I would promote Williamson at mid-season also. The Reds will need him to audition for starter spot next year.
Cerda has shown some life as well. Callahan needs to move up now. Let's see what he has.
Jorge has played 2B this season; the ACL SS has been Balcazar. He has been good too.
Add Roa to the disappointing list.
K's have been a problem all around for the hitters. I wonder if the Reds are emphasizing control of K rate at the lower levels.

[krm1580]

Or conversely, he's so difficult to square up that he's actually pitching backwards, making him really hard to figure out.

Honestly I have not seen him pitch so I guess that is possible. Where did you see his slider getting an 80 grade? I have seen his fastball as 70-80 but his slider I have always seen as average. If it’s improved that much that is exciting

[Ron Madden]

Bobby Nightengale
@nightengalejr

Good stretch of the season for Reds pitching prospect Chase Petty. He entered the year as the third-youngest pitcher in the Florida State League.

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Justin Rocke
@JustinRocke

He’ll have to settle for another no-decision, but more brilliance from the 19-year-old RHP Chase Petty tonight.

His final line: 5.0 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 4 SO, 1 HBP, 1 GDP, 58 pitches (38 strikes)

Now holds a 2.49 ERA (7 ER in 25.1 IP) over his last 6 outings.

[Tony Cloninger]

They need to develop some relievers because I see very little ready ones now.

[WrongVerb]

They need to develop some relievers because I see very little ready ones now.

It's the rare successful reliever that was developed as such. Most are failed starters.