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Thread: The Great Red Surge: Top 10

  1. #16
    Member mth123's Avatar
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    Re: The Great Red Surge: Top 10

    I'll Take a shot

    1. de la Cruz
    2. McLain
    3. Abbott
    4. Torres
    5. Boyle
    6. Siani
    7. Allen
    8. McGarry
    9. Ashcraft
    10. Bonnin
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH


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  3. #17
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    Re: The Great Red Surge: Top 10

    Quote Originally Posted by Mitri View Post
    How much of this is park factors, though? Just asking, I truly have no idea how Chattanooga and the other parks in that league play.
    Left Field: 330 feet Center Field: 400 feet Right Field: 325 feet. Very high HR wall pretty much all over.


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  5. #18
    Member Tuff Nut's Avatar
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    Re: The Great Red Surge: Top 10

    Nice write ups, BZ. One thing about your top 10 is that you now have (2) #5s...Ashcraft and Torres. Guess they are 5a and 5b. Just nitpickin'.

  6. #19
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    Re: The Great Red Surge: Top 10

    McLain’s K% is starting to frighten me a little. Just a little, though.
    What would you say.....ya do here?

  7. #20
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    Re: The Great Red Surge: Top 10

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post
    Woo, I don't know about that one.

    I think he's likely a multi-inning relief arm in the majors. I get some Antone vibes from him, though his stuff isn't quite that good.

    Maybe a poor man's Lucas Sims?
    I had forgotten about Ashcraft, and would need to slot him in my top 10. But I think I’d keep Spiers in there too. 4-pitch mix, good offspeed stuff, FB sitting at 94-95 now. Doesn’t give up a lot of free passes or HRs, and his stuff just seems to get better as he progresses through the system. His makeup reminds me of Mahle a bit.

    I like them both better than Bonnin/Roa based on health/consistency alone.

  8. #21
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    Re: The Great Red Surge: Top 10

    Quote Originally Posted by icehole3 View Post
    Left Field: 330 feet Center Field: 400 feet Right Field: 325 feet. Very high HR wall pretty much all over.

    I was thinking more mountain air vs. humid, sea-level air. Isn’t the FSL a notorious pitcher’s league? I wonder if some of Allen’s power potential is being sapped in Daytona.

    I trust your eyes, and appreciate all the updates.

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  10. #22
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    Re: The Great Red Surge: Top 10

    Quote Originally Posted by Mitri View Post
    I was thinking more mountain air vs. humid, sea-level air. Isn’t the FSL a notorious pitcher’s league? I wonder if some of Allen’s power potential is being sapped in Daytona.

    I trust your eyes, and appreciate all the updates.
    Allen's swing is more like TJ Friedl, line drives hits some in the gap. Siani is swinging for the fences.

  11. #23
    Member Bourgeois Zee's Avatar
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    Re: The Great Red Surge: Top 10

    Quote Originally Posted by Mitri View Post
    Isn’t the FSL a notorious pitcher’s league? I wonder if some of Allen’s power potential is being sapped in Daytona.
    Historically, that' absolutely been the case. The FSL, due to humidity, saps power.

    Chattanooga's home park is a hitter's haven, by comparison.

  12. #24
    Member Bourgeois Zee's Avatar
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    Re: The Great Red Surge: Top 10

    End of May Surge Top 10 (Hype only):

    1. Elly De La Cruz
    Kid attracts eyeballs. He's hitting really well and showing signs of progress in pitch recognition. The key stat here is that BB rate-- and whether the K rate can stay below 25. The 143 wRC+ looks fantastic-- but it's the way he gets there that's so tantalizing. As the weather heats up, I'm guessing so will his bat. And it's already pretty warm.

    2. Graham Ashcraft
    Finally, the rest of baseball took notice. Extreme groundball tendencies tend to result in good things, even if he hasn't yet found the putaway pitch he showed in the minors. Regardless, he made the Giants look foolish-- and that team can hit.

    3. Matt McLain
    Serious pop, but the K rate worries. So does the BA (at least to me). That 134 wRC+ is tasty, but it's driven by old man skills. Love to see a run of .330 BA in June.

    4. Joe Boyle
    Boyle was, for most of us, an outlier in the top 30. He might have been mentioned by the end. There were the requisite worries about control and just not enough innings to get a handle on his progression. Well, he's still an outlier, but for a completely different reason. The former Notre Dame Golden Domer has flat-out dominated High A batters. He's putting up numbers that are straight-up ridiculous. How does 1.6 H/9 even happen?

    5. Rece Hinds
    His May-- .406/ .487/ .703/ 1.190-- hints at Hinds' immense upside. The ball is carrying-- that in itself might make him incredibly dangerous as a hitter. Realizing he can pick his own pitch might as well. Love the BA here-- that's been his weakness overall in his young professional career. Carry forward some of that, and he's the best OF prospect in the system.

    6. Andrew Abbott
    Still pitching well in AA, if not dominating as he did in High A. That shows the leap prospects have to make, IMO, and perhaps slows the Abbott roll a bit until he figures it out. Which he likely will. The BB rate is exceptional, as is the K rate. He's giving up a lot of hits, but it's only three starts and 14 innings. We can be patient.

    7. Alex McGarry/ Robbie Tenorowicz/ Blake Dunn/ Isiah Gilliam/ Cristian Santana
    Every stop on the ladder has an older guy knocking the snot out of the ball. Dunn's a relative newcomer to Daytona, and he's stepped into being perhaps their best hitter. Already nine SB on the season speaks to his aggressiveness. The BA is good, the BB rate is exceptional, the K rate is solid, the power looks dynamite-- there's nothing wrong with that stat line aside from age. McGarry is the early leader for High A MVP and has an outside shot at the league's Triple Crown. After a slow start, Bird Tenorowicz has established himself once again as a middle of the order hitter in AA. Gilliam has as well. Santana is hitting .375/ .421/ .477/ .898 this month in AAA. They might not earn prospect praise, but they can be recognized on The Surge. Well done, lads.

    8. Bryce Bonnin
    A perfect 15 up and 15 down in his last start. He's the mini-Boyle, but with more pedigree.

    9. Connor Phillips
    The third Dragon starter on the list so far. His May looked an awful lot like his April-- same BAA in fact. The only difference? A few more Ks (4) and a few less BBs (4). That works out to a .541 OPSA. Which is, like, really good. He's got an exceptional 2.53 ERA, and he's been unlucky so far this season. For a kid two years younger than the league average, that's good to see.

    10. Brandon Williamson
    Finally, a run of adequacy in AA. He's still walking too many people and might end up an Amir Garrett type, but for now, he's showing some signs of life. Needs a serious run in June to show his stuff and stay in the top 100 prospect lists.

    Honorable Mention: Jose Barrero, Max Schrock, Mike Minor, and Jake Fraley
    Returning major leaguers mean fewer AAAA types and a bit more hope in what was a month without hope. It's just more fun to see guys who you know should be able to help at the major league level getting ready. Barrero is going to start at SS. Schrock and Fraley are going to get some serious time as bench bats with upside to be more. Minor is at least serviceable as a starter. More importantly, they will replace largely ineffective players and make the parent club much more interesting soon. Soon.

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  14. #25
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    Re: The Great Red Surge: Top 10

    I'll take a semi educated stab at a top 10

    1. Elly - potential difference making superstar nearly half his hits are of the extra base variety
    2. McLain - .361 obp .555 slg 11 for 12 in SB and a .974 fld% at SS.
    3. Ashcraft - Excellent ERA in AAA and looks like he belongs in bigs
    4. Abbott - the best control of any of our top SP prospects still adjusting to AA but doing well
    5. Phillips - he's two years younger than any of our other top SP in A+ and AA and is pitching as well as any of them. top 10 in MILB in SO
    6. Williamson - his May was similar to his 2021 and I expect we'll see him make his MLB debut before the end of 2022.
    7. Boyle - unhittable guy who walks 6 1/2 batters per 9 innings I really don't know what to make of him yet lol
    8. Hinds - had about as good a month of May as you could ask for now we'll see if he can keep it going
    8. Bonnin - late start to the year but rounded into form with 5 1/3 no hit innings his last start.
    10. Allen/Petty - hard to get a read on 19 year old low A guys, but I like these two long term. Allen is still walking nearly as much as he K's with 20 SB, and Petty has a fine BB/SO ratio for such a young pitcher.
    Last edited by JCM11; 05-31-2022 at 12:11 PM.

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    Bourgeois Zee (05-31-2022)

  16. #26
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    Re: The Great Red Surge: Top 10

    Mid-June Surge Update

    The Top 10 (Performance-based):

    1. Elly De La Cruz
    If De La Cruz could occupy the entire top five, that'd be how much he's dominated over the past few weeks. Kid's young, ultra-talented, plays the most demanding position on the diamond, and is actually (finally) learning to take a walk. .337/.385/.674/ 1.060 over the last month and seven walks in his last eight games hint at the game-changing talent The Kid possesses. RTG is right: Elly De La Cruz is likely going to be a top 10 prospect as early as the halfway point of this season.

    2. Alex McGarry
    Since the move to AA, he's gone .333/ .389/ .576/ .965 and gotten at least one hit in all but one game. He's K'ed 10 times in those 36 PAs, but the BA and power look legit. At 24, he's a bit old for AA, but he'll be 25 or 26 if he continues to play this way during his major league debut. That'll work. Still waiting for the league to figure him out, so there may be a swoon coming, but at this point, McGarry looks like a legitimate breakout candidate.

    3. Joe Boyle
    An ERA of 0.78 seems impossible. As ERA that low with so little prospect excitement seems impossibler. Throw in his 80 fastball, 80 slider, and relative youth (22), and it's the impossiblest situation of all. Boyle has been awe-inspiring all season, yet remarkably few Red fans (let alone national pundits) have seemed to take notice or care. Why is that? Dunno. I'm enjoying it. Kid's turned himself into a top 100 prospect in my eyes. Even if he goes about getting outs completely differently than anyone else in the game. (Which may be why... Nah, let's not overthink it...)

    4. Tyler Callihan
    Back from the injury scrapheap. Again. Callihan's a plus hitter who's been inendiary lately-- four multi-hit games in his last five overall and a .309 BA in June show he's finally getting enough PAs to see that tool work. He just need at-bats, IMO, to cement himself as a viable plus hitter. The question is whether he'll hit for any power. Seven doubles (including five since the calendar switched to June) indicate he might...?

    5. Carlos Jorge
    You know the best thing about old crushes? When they hit right, they're forever. So it is with Jorge. He shows up just over a week ago in the ACL, and it's like he never left my brainpan. It helps that he's gone off for a .306/ .432/ .667/ 1.099 line as an 18-year-old. Add in 6 SB without getting caught and the fact that he plays SS (and so far at least, profiles to stick there), a premium defensive position. What's not to love?

    6. Yassel Pino
    The Reds shifted 1B throughout the system and Pino was the beneficiary in low A. He moved up from the ACL and has hit very well in Daytona. He's 20, so he's slightly younger than league average, but it's nice to see, at any rate. Pino showed both patience and pop last year in the Dominican. If he can "skip" the ACL, that augers well for his development. One to watch, at this rate.

    7. Ruben Ibarra
    Speaking of one to watch, Ibarra is hard to miss. Ibarra got moved up to High A after a torrid last month in low A. He's a massive mountain of a man who's easy to root for. Like to see that power show through in Dayton a bit more now that he's escaped the Florida State League. We'll see.

    8. Connor Phillips
    The Dragons have needed Phillips to show out as they've struggled to finish the first half. Instead, he's been... adequate. His peripherals looks shiny. He's young. It'll be intereting to see how he reacts to the "pennant race" just ahead of him, wherein every pitch matters. That's good stress, IMO, and telling.

    9. Javi Rivera
    Solid numbers, but the peripherals are even better. He's not walking anyone (1.6/9) and still K'ing quite a few (9.6/9). That'll work. He's old for the league, but this is his first taste of pro ball. And his last month has built on the one before that. A call-up to Dayton at the halfway point might be in his future.

    10. Chase Petty
    See Rivera. Subtract three years. The Reds are really limiting his innings. Which is good for his health, but makes it difficult to get a read on his development. Like Rivera, he's K'ing batters at a high rate and limited the free passes. He's also been hard to hit. At this point, that's super convenient.

    The Bottom Five (Who's Struggled?)

    1. Austin Hendrick
    Is he still considered a prospect? The hole in his swing is LARGE. He's Samone Peters with better defense at this point. I'm hoping this is the impetus to re-work that swing completely.

    2. Jose Torres
    As good as he looked early this year, Torres has struggled for a month plus at this point. And he's playing down a league based on his Power 5 pedigree. Ah well, at least we still have Elly.

    3. Matt McLain
    What happened to the plus hit tool guy the Reds drafted? Dunno. He's scuffling. Thankfully, McLain has other tools-- including enough pop to keep opposing pitchers honest-- that can be worked on while he gets untracked at the plate. Not a great month.

    4. Brandon Williamson
    Perhaps it's not fair to lump him in with the others on this august list, but Williamson's been no more than cromulent in a league he should be dominating. Way, way too many walks. And he doesn't appear to be getting any better at limiting them.

    5. Jose Barrero
    I'm giving him a bit of a free pass because he didn't have a Spring Training, but the K's are a concern. As they are up and down the Red system. The low BA is too. The power's back and will play, but he needs to find that bat that say him tear up Lousiville last year before I want him promoted.

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  18. #27
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    Re: The Great Red Surge: Top 10

    Andrew Abbott?
    "It is better to grasp the universe as it really is than to persist in delusion, however satisfying & reassuring." - Carl Sagan

  19. #28
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    Re: The Great Red Surge: Top 10

    Quote Originally Posted by WrongVerb View Post
    Andrew Abbott?
    Seems to be getting roughed up at AA.

  20. #29
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    Re: The Great Red Surge: Top 10

    Quote Originally Posted by WrongVerb View Post
    Andrew Abbott?
    This isn't meant to be a top 10 prospect list-- it's a list of helium, hype, and relative hot takes.

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  22. #30
    TyrannoSuarez Wrecks WrongVerb's Avatar
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    Re: The Great Red Surge: Top 10

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post
    This isn't meant to be a top 10 prospect list-- it's a list of helium, hype, and relative hot takes.
    Ah. Gotcha.
    "It is better to grasp the universe as it really is than to persist in delusion, however satisfying & reassuring." - Carl Sagan


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