Luis Castillo he's 'getting better and better'

[Coopdaddy67]

How is he significantly better than Wheeler at time he left Mets
Wheeler had 3.77 ERA (career) 3.71 FIP
Castillo 3.70 ERA (career) 3.73 FIP

One got to pitch primarily at Citi Field, the other in GABP. Look at their adjusted stats.

I'll just use ERA+ because it's easier to break down stats by team on baseball reference than it is fangraphs: Castillo is 124. Wheeler with the Mets is 100.

[InsaneinthBrame]

Castillo has been noticeably better than Wheeler was during their rookie deals, pitching primarily in one of the toughest parks in baseball.

There's a realistic chance that Castillo could get $25-30+ mil a year over a long-term contract, provided he remains healthy and continues pitching at (or above) his expected level the next 1.5 years. Wouldn't be that surprising at all to see him enter his peak during that time period either, further inflating his value.

He and his agent are going to want teams to pay for a few more seasons and not bank on him still being great when he hits the FA market again at age 34-35. For legit #1 starters, you're either going to spread money over more years or pay a premium for a short-term deal a la Bauer's when guys are in their primes.

The only way I could see an extension fitting into the Reds' payroll payroll is if they give him opt outs, which is becoming more common. Would he prefer flexibility to hit the market again or one large guaranteed contract? Who knows.

Personally, I just can't see the Reds keeping him beyond the 2022 deadline if he keeps pitching like he did last night. The trade market for him would be insane and hopefully the Reds would play it correctly.

Go look at what FA starters got this off season examples Gausman, Ray and Rodan 22M per year range who had monster years and I would consider better than Castillo at the moment. That is likely the best Castillo will get.
He pitches poorly on the Road 4.24 ERA career struggles in April May and August there is a lot not to like about Castillo. These are all things that will hurt his contract.

[InsaneinthBrame]

One got to pitch primarily at Citi Field, the other in GABP. Look at their adjusted stats.

I'll just use ERA+ because it's easier to break down stats by team on baseball reference than it is fangraphs: Castillo is 124. Wheeler with the Mets is 100.

ERA+ is a lousy stat

Too much is getting made about ball parks. Castill has a 3.21 ERA in GABP and 4.24 ERA on the road if it is so hard to pitch in GABP explain that stat. This is what skews thing like ERA plus.

[Kc61]

Some think Wheeler’s deal is too low for Luis. Some think it’s too high. So probably it’s a decent base line for consideration. In any event, I doubt Reds will go there. The question is whether they can come up with a championship rotation in-house. Or whether some major FA or trade move will need to be made at some point.

[RiverRat13]

The Reds have zero long term dollars on the books starting in 2024. If you trade Castillo, you're looking at a Pirates/Guardians like payroll.

[mth123]

I’m sure I’m in the minority but I would like to see them lock him up with a 3 year extension.

Let him be the lone veteran anchor in a rotation with Greene, Lodolo, and whoever emerges from the Ashcraft/Abbott/Williamson/Phillips bunch.

Trade Mahle (and Gutierrez et al) for the best OF prospects you can get.

4 years $75 Million with an option for a 5th year.

2023 - $14 Million
2024 - $17 Million
2025 - $20 Million
2026 - $22 Million

2027 option $25 Million with a $2 Million buy-out. $75 Million guaranteed could go to $98 Million if they take the option. The 5th year could become guaranteed based on performance in the 2 years prior. (IP etc).

To me, that's a very fair deal.

[Bourgeois Zee]

4 years $75 Million with an option for a 5th year.

2023 - $14 Million
2024 - $17 Million
2025 - $20 Million
2026 - $22 Million

2027 option $25 Million with a $2 Million buy-out. $75 Million guaranteed could go to $98 Million if they take the option. The 5th year could become guaranteed based on performance in the 2 years prior. (IP etc).

To me, that's a very fair deal.

That would insult Castillo and his camp.

[Coopdaddy67]

Go look at what FA starters got this off season examples Gausman, Ray and Rodan 22M per year range who had monster years and I would consider better than Castillo at the moment. That is likely the best Castillo will get.
He pitches poorly on the Road 4.24 ERA career struggles in April May and August there is a lot not to like about Castillo. These are all things that will hurt his contract.

You mean when veterans were scrambling to agree to deals hours before a lockout when they had no clue how the financials would look months from then? Yeah, that's not really comparable.

Gausman had exactly one great season (2021) headed into free agency. He took $100 mil and ran. Ray had an elite season after a few average years while also getting an opt out in the middle of his deal to reevaluate things post-CBA deal. Worst case is he'd be locked into a 2 year/$50 mil deal. Stroman's on a 2-year/$50 mil deal (or a 3-year/$71-75 mil if he chooses), so he could look at things again too.

If you don't think teams would be lining up to throw big money to Castillo, I don't know what to tell you. You may not value park adjusted stats, but I guarantee you teams do, especially when you show them you can dominate in hitter-friendly ballparks.

[Wonderful Monds]

4 years $75 Million with an option for a 5th year.

2023 - $14 Million
2024 - $17 Million
2025 - $20 Million
2026 - $22 Million

2027 option $25 Million with a $2 Million buy-out. $75 Million guaranteed could go to $98 Million if they take the option. The 5th year could become guaranteed based on performance in the 2 years prior. (IP etc).

To me, that's a very fair deal.

Castillo’s agent would laugh in your face if you proposed that to them

[mth123]

That would insult Castillo and his camp.

I don't know. Castillo isn't a free agent right now. He'd be settling for a little less to avoid the possibility of getting hurt and ending up with nothing. Comparing him to what guy got as free agents isn't the right comparison. If he won't sign a deal that offers both security to him and something the Reds could live with risk wise, then the calls to trade him are correct. I'd certainly be discussing a long term deal with him right now. Maybe its 5 year 110 Million with it being more backloaded for when Moose and Votto are off the books, but I don't think he'll get what Wheeler got until he becomes an actual free agent. If he has his heart set on that, then they must trade him.

My guess is the Reds aren't even going to try to extend him and they'll settle for a lowball offer. Some fringe top 100 prospect near the bottom of some lists and not on some others and a couple lotto tickets and that is a lot more than they'll get for Mahle. Not optimistic about the return they will get and not optimistic about the likely rotation when he's gone. They have a lot of good names as candidates, but we've seen over and over again that the vast majority of those candidates fail. If the reds can fill three stable spots from the pool of in-house candidates, I'll be shocked.

[redsfan9988]

4 years $75 Million with an option for a 5th year.

2023 - $14 Million
2024 - $17 Million
2025 - $20 Million
2026 - $22 Million

2027 option $25 Million with a $2 Million buy-out. $75 Million guaranteed could go to $98 Million if they take the option. The 5th year could become guaranteed based on performance in the 2 years prior. (IP etc).

To me, that's a very fair deal.

Lance McCullers got 5yrs $85MM, although I believe they bought out an arb year in that deal. Wheeler got $118MM for the same length. I think that Castillo falls in this range with the caveat that his undeniable arm talent may lead certain teams that are confident in their pitching philosophies to bid higher in hopes of making him better.

I’d be shocked if he signs for less than 9 figures. I’d also be shocked if the Reds even make him an offer. Other than a qualifying one of course (if that’s still a thing). That said:

2023: $15MM (arb year)
2024: $25MM
2025: $20MM
2026: $20MM
2027: $20MM
2028: $25MM club option/$5MM buyout

It’s 5 yrs $105MM and front-loaded towards the year in which the Reds will have the most payroll flexibility.

This will get rejected, but it’s not insulting.

[RiverRat13]

I'd be fine with 5 years $120 million. I'd do something like 20/35/35/15/15. Give him big money in 2024/25 when they won't have anyone else to pay and then it becomes more reasonable when it's time to pay India, Stephenson and/or the young pitchers.

[InsaneinthBrame]

You mean when veterans were scrambling to agree to deals hours before a lockout when they had no clue how the financials would look months from then? Yeah, that's not really comparable.

Gausman had exactly one great season (2021) headed into free agency. He took $100 mil and ran. Ray had an elite season after a few average years while also getting an opt out in the middle of his deal to reevaluate things post-CBA deal. Worst case is he'd be locked into a 2 year/$50 mil deal. Stroman's on a 2-year/$50 mil deal (or a 3-year/$71-75 mil if he chooses), so he could look at things again too.

If you don't think teams would be lining up to throw big money to Castillo, I don't know what to tell you. You may not value park adjusted stats, but I guarantee you teams do, especially when you show them you can dominate in hitter-friendly ballparks.

Castillo is a "headcase" IMO I would not throw money at him. Maybe some dumb GM would overspend on him. Castillo has never been consistent he has stretches where is great and other stretches of mediocre. He pitches well when he is "comfortable".

[Ron Madden]

Castillo is not a head case

[redsfan9988]

Castillo is a "headcase" IMO I would not throw money at him. Maybe some dumb GM would overspend on him. Castillo has never been consistent he has stretches where is great and other stretches of mediocre. He pitches well when he is "comfortable".

I’m not sure what the evidence is for that. He’s posted a 100+ ERA+ in every year except his first full year (it was 97 that year). Even after an awful start to 2021, and leading the league in walks, he still put up a 120 ERA+ and was 6th in the NL in IP. He’s worth $100MM+. If you don’t think we should pay him that - okay… but I’m not sure about the headcase argument.