The New “The Trade” Results

[757690]

We'll have to disagree. Guys who are "prospects" are thought of as "prospects" compared to other minor leaguers, the vast majority of whom are filler who won't be major leaguers. These guys are along the lines of Vlad Gutierrez and Sal Romano. Pretty good compared to most minor leaguers, but not somebody to trade your top guys for unless they are thrown into the deal as the second or third guy. I have no problem with the idea of stockpiling these guys in that manner, I just don't like targeting them in a deal like this. Phillips as a secondary piece is fine, but Williamson as the primary piece isn't somebody I'd target.

They'll be lucky to get one reliable bullpen guy for 2 or 3 years out of this deal.

Pitching prospects are high reward, high risk, but many have developed into solid MLB pitchers. MLB history is littered with pitching prospects who were traded who turned it into quality MLB pitchers. John Smoltz and Josh Hader are two extreme examples that quickly come to mind.

The Reds have been rather successful over the last 20 years in trading for pitching prospects. Harang, Volquez, Disco and Castillo were all acquired via trade as prospects. Harang and Disco were rated well below what both Williamson and Phillips are rated currently.

We can look at the past and come up with a general understanding of what pitching prospect are worth, what on average their MLB production will be over the long haul to teams. That is what determines their trade value. It’s not made up or pulled out of thin air, but based on decades of data. That data tells us that Williamson and Phillips are worth far more than 5 wins of trade value right now. They may never become MLB pitchers, but that is their trade value.

[RedTeamGo!]

Calling them a B Level prospect is overstating things. Nick Lodolo is a B Level prospect. Williamson probably a C and Phillips a C-.

Williamson is the 87th best prospect in mlb according to MLB Pipeline. How is that a C prospect?

[mth123]

Pitching prospects are high reward, high risk, but many have developed into solid MLB pitchers. MLB history is littered with pitching prospects who were traded who turned it into quality MLB pitchers. John Smoltz and Josh Hader are two extreme examples that quickly come to mind.

The Reds have been rather successful over the last 20 years in trading for pitching prospects. Harang, Volquez, Disco and Castillo were all acquired via trade as prospects. Harang and Disco were rated well below what both Williamson and Phillips are rated currently.

We can look at the past and come up with a general understanding of what pitching prospect are worth, what on average their MLB production will be over the long haul to teams. That is what determines their trade value. It’s not made up or pulled out of thin air, but based on decades of data. That data tells us that Williamson and Phillips are worth far more than 5 wins of trade value right now. They may never become MLB pitchers, but that is their trade value.

Again, no problem accumulating these secondary and third level pitching prospects. Its actually a good idea, I just don't trade my guy with a career OPS+ over 125 in over 1300 PAs for them. For Castillo, they dealt a journeyman 5th starter in Dan Straily. For Harang, the dealt Jose Guillen who was in a career year, but was basically a 4th OF when everyone was healthy. For Disco, they trade a damaged goods Mat Latos in a Salary Dump. In Voluez case, he was more highly regarded than the others (including Williamson and Phillips) and the Reds flipped Josh Hamilton for him. He was a lotto ticket who hit it big but was still one mis-step from being banned for life. Hamilton went on to become an MVP, but I'd make that deal 100 times out of 100 with the risk that Hamilton could become nothing overnight.

I don't mind having Williamson and Phillips in the organization. I just wouldn't trade Winker for them. If you said they dealt Tyler Naquin or Tucker Barnhart for one of them, I'd be fine with it. Those guys are lotto tickets. You acquire them for stuff you can spare, not by ripping the heart of line-up out.

[Mitri]

I don't mind having Williamson and Phillips in the organization. I just wouldn't trade Winker for them. If you said they dealt Tyler Naquin or Tucker Barnhart for one of them, I'd be fine with it. Those guys are lotto tickets. You acquire them for stuff you can spare, not by ripping the heart of line-up out.

Because 4th outfielders get traded for top-100 prospects all the time.

[RedTeamGo!]

Again, no problem accumulating these secondary and third level pitching prospects. Its actually a good idea, I just don't trade my guy with a career OPS+ over 125 in over 1300 PAs for them. For Castillo, they dealt a journeyman 5th starter in Dan Straily. For Harang, the dealt Jose Guillen who was in a career year, but was basically a 4th OF when everyone was healthy. For Disco, they trade a damaged goods Mat Latos in a Salary Dump. In Voluez case, he was more highly regarded than the others (including Williamson and Phillips) and the Reds flipped Joh Hamilton for him. He was a lotto ticket who hit it big but was still one mis-step from being banned for life. Hamilton went on to become an MVP, but I'd make that deal 100 times out of 100 with the risk that Hamilton could become nothing overnight.

I don't mind having Williamson and Phillips in the organization. I just wouldn't trade Winker for them. If you said they dealt Tyler Naquin or Tucker Barnhart for one of them, I'd be fine with it. Those guys are lotto tickets. You acquire them for stuff you can spare, not by ripping the heart of line-up out.

Tucker Barnhart or Tyler Naquin for a top 100 prospect + another that will likely be a top 100 prospect soon? How many beers have you knocked back today?

[HokieRed]

I've been discussing this since the day of the trade. If you look at the data, at the numbers, take the emotion of losing a favorite player out of it, that trade is rather fair.

Winker at best is a 3-4 win player a season. He has two years of team control. That's 6-8 wins as a best case scenario. He is due around $15-20M in arbitration over those two seasons. That gives Winker at best 5 wins of excess value. That is best case trade value. It's probably lower than that, but let's use that for now.

A B level prospect like Williamson or Phillips easily has 5 win trade value by themselves. Think about a prospect like Abbott. He easily is worth 5 wins in trade value. To obtain that, they just need to be a decent reliever during their controllable years. If they are a decent starter for even 2 seasons, they are worth more than that. Two B pitching prospects are likely worth closer to 10 WAR combined.

So Winker for Williamson and Phillips, according to the numbers, is a fair deal, and likely an overpay by the Mariners.

I'm not sure I make the deal from our side but I think this may have been their process. Seems to me the next move could have been the add-in of Suarez proposed by the Mariners. They gain a player with considerable rebound upside and very decent contract, Reds get some salary relief (whether you think they needed it or not), Mariners clear a couple roster spots, Fraley and Dunn, one a nonentity, the other unlikely to contribute this year because of injury. They got a lot in that second move.

[JFLegal]

I've been discussing this since the day of the trade. If you look at the data, at the numbers, take the emotion of losing a favorite player out of it, that trade is rather fair.

Winker at best is a 3-4 win player a season. He has two years of team control. That's 6-8 wins as a best case scenario. He is due around $15-20M in arbitration over those two seasons. That gives Winker at best 5 wins of excess value. That is best case trade value. It's probably lower than that, but let's use that for now.

A B level prospect like Williamson or Phillips easily has 5 win trade value by themselves. Think about a prospect like Abbott. He easily is worth 5 wins in trade value. To obtain that, they just need to be a decent reliever during their controllable years. If they are a decent starter for even 2 seasons, they are worth more than that. Two B pitching prospects are likely worth closer to 10 WAR combined.

So Winker for Williamson and Phillips, according to the numbers, is a fair deal, and likely an overpay by the Mariners.

for sure i'd trade wink for williamson/phillips.

hold on for one more day.

[mth123]

Because 4th outfielders get traded for top-100 prospects all the time.

Then you keep Winker and wait for the next opportunity. They got Castillo for a 5th starter. They got Harang for a 4th OF.

[Wonderful Monds]

Then you keep Winker and wait for the next opportunity. They got Castillo for a 5th starter. They got Harang for a 4th OF.

I mean those are highway robbery trades. You can’t expect to build a whole rotation just by ripping off other teams all the time.

Williamson is not a bad part of a return for Winker. If they had another Williamson in the trade instead of a couple actual lottery tickets or injured players, I wouldn’t have been bothered by trading him.

[mth123]

I mean those are highway robbery trades. You can’t expect to build a whole rotation just by ripping off other teams all the time.

Williamson is not a bad part of a return for Winker. If they had another Williamson in the trade instead of a couple actual lottery tickets or injured players, I wouldn’t have been bothered by trading him.

I think pitching prospects in general are lotto tickets. Its why you need to accumulate a lot of them but not trade anything critical to get them. You draft a bunch and get them thrown into deals as the second or third piece. I don't target them unless they are top guys. Not when you're ripping the heart out of the middle of the line-up. Aim higher or don't trade him.

[LeatherPants]

I think pitching prospects in general are lotto tickets. Its why you need to accumulate a lot of them but not trade anything critical to get6 them. You draft a bunch and get them thrown into deals as the second or third piece. I don't target them unless they are top guys. Not when you're ripping the heart out of the middle of the line-up. Aim higher or don't trade him.

It’s like the guy they got in the Sonny Gray trade. They traded Gray for a guy that’s a high school draft pick who had less than 10 minor league innings. You don’t trade major league arms for those guys. And you don’t trade middle of the order bats with multiple years of control for guys that will probably wind up as middle relief arms, if that.

[JFLegal]

It’s like the guy they got in the Sonny Gray trade. They traded Gray for a guy that’s a high school draft pick who had less than 10 minor league innings. You don’t trade major league arms for those guys. And you don’t trade middle of the order bats with multiple years of control for guys that will probably wind up as middle relief arms, if that.

good description of a "guy who's a high school draft pick."

another description would be "first-round draft pick who is 19 years old and has looked promising."

[HokieRed]

Then you keep Winker and wait for the next opportunity. They got Castillo for a 5th starter. They got Harang for a 4th OF.

Where would Jose Guillen be on our outfield depth chart?

[HokieRed]

In what I'd argue is the most important trade involving our division in the last twenty years, Walt Jocketty traded a star middle of the order bat, J.D. Drew, for a 21 year old who had just finished pitching in AA, Adam Wainwright. I wish he'd made a trade on that order for us.

[RedTeamGo!]

good description of a "guy who's a high school draft pick."

another description would be "first-round draft pick who is 19 years old and has looked promising."

Yep. It’s honestly so weird. People act like Petty was a 30th round pick or something with no skill. He was a first round draft pick with a rocket launcher for a right arm. I get it, he’s a young pitcher, but there’s no reason to act like he’s an absolute nobody. I listened to the MLB Pipeline podcast about the Gray trade when it went down and all 3 hosts said Petty was legit and a solid return. Meanwhile 99% of RZ acts like Petty is Max Wotell.

This site gets harder to read by the day. I get it, it’s a horrible season and there’s little hope. But, it’s difficult to talk about the Reds on here when people are not doing so in good faith.