The New “The Trade” Results

[Old school 1983]

Because through the age 30 they are running neck and neck

Year	        G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+	     
2007-2014	1118	4380	3796	577	871	171	11	224	613	57	25	506	1398	.230	.324	.457	.782	106		
2014-2022	1044	4186	3678	531	922	162	12	202	570	28	17	413	1091	.251	.333	.466	.799	109

Reynolds was good, but K's really dragged his game down and that soured him in several places and he moved around a lot after age 28. K's are a part of the game but excessive K's have a short shelf life and I think that Dunn and Reynolds both emerged right as three outcomes was becoming in vogue more and more, but it still didn't play well when they got older and more expensive.

I misread. Wrong Reynolds. My bad.

[JCM11]

I mean those are highway robbery trades. You can’t expect to build a whole rotation just by ripping off other teams all the time.

Williamson is not a bad part of a return for Winker. If they had another Williamson in the trade instead of a couple actual lottery tickets or injured players, I wouldn’t have been bothered by trading him.

I would put the odds at close to 50% that Phillips ends up being the best player we got in the Seattle trade. I'm really impressed with the raw stuff he has with a fastball reaching 98 and nasty breaking stuff as slow as 77. Phillips is basically matching what Williamson did in high A ball at a full two years younger.

[malcontent]

I would put the odds at close to 50% that Phillips ends up being the best player we got in the Seattle trade. I'm really impressed with the raw stuff he has with a fastball reaching 98 and nasty breaking stuff as slow as 77.

From what I've seen of the highlights, I have to agree. Outstanding fastball, slider, and curve. If he has a decent change...

[paulrichjr]

Yep. It’s honestly so weird. People act like Petty was a 30th round pick or something with no skill. He was a first round draft pick with a rocket launcher for a right arm. I get it, he’s a young pitcher, but there’s no reason to act like he’s an absolute nobody. I listened to the MLB Pipeline podcast about the Gray trade when it went down and all 3 hosts said Petty was legit and a solid return. Meanwhile 99% of RZ acts like Petty is Max Wotell.

This site gets harder to read by the day. I get it, it’s a horrible season and there’s little hope. But, it’s difficult to talk about the Reds on here when people are not doing so in good faith.

I have been told that one team in the AL had Petty in their top 5 on draft day. That’s pretty legit.

[CaiGuy]

Yep. It’s honestly so weird. People act like Petty was a 30th round pick or something with no skill. He was a first round draft pick with a rocket launcher for a right arm. I get it, he’s a young pitcher, but there’s no reason to act like he’s an absolute nobody. I listened to the MLB Pipeline podcast about the Gray trade when it went down and all 3 hosts said Petty was legit and a solid return. Meanwhile 99% of RZ acts like Petty is Max Wotell.

This site gets harder to read by the day. I get it, it’s a horrible season and there’s little hope. But, it’s difficult to talk about the Reds on here when people are not doing so in good faith.

He was picked right around Matt McLain for reference.

[LeatherPants]

good description of a "guy who's a high school draft pick."

another description would be "first-round draft pick who is 19 years old and has looked promising."

I’m not a fan of drafting high school arms in the first round due to the risk, unless it’s someone like Hunter Greene, and even then it’s a very high risk proposition. I’m really not a fan of trading Sonny Gray for a high school arm for the same reason.

[LeatherPants]

Yep. It’s honestly so weird. People act like Petty was a 30th round pick or something with no skill. He was a first round draft pick with a rocket launcher for a right arm. I get it, he’s a young pitcher, but there’s no reason to act like he’s an absolute nobody. I listened to the MLB Pipeline podcast about the Gray trade when it went down and all 3 hosts said Petty was legit and a solid return. Meanwhile 99% of RZ acts like Petty is Max Wotell.

This site gets harder to read by the day. I get it, it’s a horrible season and there’s little hope. But, it’s difficult to talk about the Reds on here when people are not doing so in good faith.

The odds of Petty ever being anything other than organizational depth is very low. First round high school pitchers have a very low success rate.

Even if he does make it, he’s five or six years away from being anything in the majors.

If you are trading Sonny Gray you have to get more than him.

And you’re right, this place is hard to take right now. Heck, in the last month there was this one guy that called Jose Barrero a bust and another saying Votto is washed up. People are rightly frustrated.

[MoneyInTheBank]

Yep. It’s honestly so weird. People act like Petty was a 30th round pick or something with no skill. He was a first round draft pick with a rocket launcher for a right arm. I get it, he’s a young pitcher, but there’s no reason to act like he’s an absolute nobody. I listened to the MLB Pipeline podcast about the Gray trade when it went down and all 3 hosts said Petty was legit and a solid return. Meanwhile 99% of RZ acts like Petty is Max Wotell.

This site gets harder to read by the day. I get it, it’s a horrible season and there’s little hope. But, it’s difficult to talk about the Reds on here when people are not doing so in good faith.

No offense, but this level of hyperbole is part of the problem

[mth123]

Yep. It’s honestly so weird. People act like Petty was a 30th round pick or something with no skill. He was a first round draft pick with a rocket launcher for a right arm. I get it, he’s a young pitcher, but there’s no reason to act like he’s an absolute nobody. I listened to the MLB Pipeline podcast about the Gray trade when it went down and all 3 hosts said Petty was legit and a solid return. Meanwhile 99% of RZ acts like Petty is Max Wotell.

This site gets harder to read by the day. I get it, it’s a horrible season and there’s little hope. But, it’s difficult to talk about the Reds on here when people are not doing so in good faith.

Because the age 18 through 23 years are the biggest danger zone for pitchers. Getting through those years healthy in and of itself is a huge if. Then add that he has to continue to progress through all levels of the minors. I just think the odds of him ever reaching the big leagues are low. Draft all the guys like Petty you want, but don't trade one of your foundational starting pitchers for it.

When Petty makes it through AA as an effective starting pitcher, then he becomes a guy to start thinking about on the Reds. That's probably 2025 at the earliest.

[RedTeamGo!]

The odds of Petty ever being anything other than organizational depth is very low. First round high school pitchers have a very low success rate.

Even if he does make it, he’s five or six years away from being anything in the majors.

If you are trading Sonny Gray you have to get more than him.

And you’re right, this place is hard to take right now. Heck, in the last month there was this one guy that called Jose Barrero a bust and another saying Votto is washed up. People are rightly frustrated.

Re-read the first post in the Votto thread. You’re new so I get not understanding why I started that thread. “What to do with…..” is an old cliche thread title on RZ when a player is struggling. I started that thread as a reverse jinx. Hence why I said “hopefully this works” in the first post of the thread. As for Barrero he suffered a serious injury and I said “he is entering bust territory if he doesn’t come back strong soon after failing his first two tries at mlb level” - I did not call him a bust.

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No offense, but this level of hyperbole is part of the problem

Touche

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Because the age 18 through 23 years are the biggest danger zone for pitchers. Getting through those years healthy in and of itself is a huge if. Then add that he has to continue to progress through all levels of the minors. I just think the odds of him ever reaching the big leagues are low. Draft all the guys like Petty you want, but don't trade one of your foundational starting pitchers for it.

When Petty makes it through AA as an effective starting pitcher, then he becomes a guy to start thinking about on the Reds. That's probably 2025 at the earliest.

Lmao, you think he won’t make it to AA until 2025? Come on.

[mth123]

Williamson is the 87th best prospect in mlb according to MLB Pipeline. How is that a C prospect?

Lets look at the Reds. I'd say Hunter Greene is an 'A" prospect. Nick Lodolo is a clear step or two down from him. He's a "B" prospect. Williamson is another step or two down. Those guys near the bottom of top 100 are there because thy have big league potential. Clearly better than most minor league players. It doesn't mean they will be good major league pitchers who will hold down a spot in the rotation. When Trading Winker, the Reds should have received a future core player in return. I think Williamson will make the big leagues. Like Vlad, Sal Romano, Cody Reed, Robert Stephenson and others made the big leagues. None of those guys became core players and I don't believe Williamson will unless something drastically changes. If he gets his control together, he might be a stud, but you can say that about a whole lot of pitching prospects. Phillips is ranked even lower than Williamson. The non-core, "interchangeable parts" big leaguers are available every year in droves as minor league free agents, big leaguers who get non-tendered or as journeyman who bounce around until they reach the service time for free agency or get released. I don't think you need to trade your significant assets for those types of guys. You can get them anywhere. You might get them as second or third guys in trades, but not as the primary target. Not for one of your key starting pitchers like Sonny Gray or your best overall hitter like Jesse Winker has been. Its OK to trade non-core guys who might fill a specific need for somebody for one of them.

The prospect market is way overvalued IMO. Most of them end up becoming nothing. The best use of these guys might be to trade them (as secondary pieces) to get better returns for guys like Minor, Mahle or some one like that. If they do something like that then these will prove to be good trades. I think the chances of these guys themselves contributing enough to make these good trades are really really low IMO.

[LeatherPants]

Not from the Votto thread. Game thread 5/21:

The Blue Jays 7-8-9 hitters would be the Reds 3-4-5 hitters.

Also, Votto is toast, ain’t he?

You’re big with the hot takes.

Being upset about these trade returns aren’t hot takes.

[RedTeamGo!]

Not from the Votto thread. Game thread 5/21:




You’re big with the hot takes.

Being upset about these trade returns aren’t hot takes.

I said something reactionary in a game thread!!!???? NO WAY!

The blue Jays 7-8-9 hitters would have been the 3-4-5 hitters for the Reds on that day.

And who isn’t asking that question about a 38 year old Votto while he is batting .150 at the end of May?

I didn’t say that about trade returns. I said acting like Petty is nothing is frustrating and lame.

[mth123]

Lmao, you think he won’t make it to AA until 2025? Come on.

That's not what I said. I said make it through AA as an effective starting pitcher. That means conquer low A, conquer A+, stay healthy and suffer no setbacks that might make a lost season and then pitch in AA and conquer it. So yeah, I think 2025 is a reasonable timeline.

[MoneyInTheBank]

That's not what I said. I said make it through AA as an effective starting pitcher. That means conquer low A, conquer A+, stay healthy and suffer no setbacks that might make a lost season and then pitch in AA and conquer it. So yeah, I think 2025 is a reasonable timeline.

Just a clarification: are you saying he will be in AAA in 2025 or will still be in AA in 2025?

I could foresee this timeline (barring injury or ineffectiveness):
2022 - Low A
2023 - High A for most of the season and a few starts in AA
2024 - AA for most of the season and a few starts in AAA
2025 - AAA for most of the season with a few starts in MLB