The New “The Trade” Results

[RedTeamGo!]

I disagree about this re-evaluation. Lets add some perspective here. Offense is down everywhere and the AL West is a much tougher hitting environment than GABP and the NL Central. Suarez .760 OPS this morning is a very good OPS+ of 126 and would be the second best bat in the Reds line-up behind only Stephenson. Winker's stinker of a .614 OPS is an OPS+ of 86 which is right in the neighborhood what they Reds are getting from Mike Noustakas and Tommy Phan (OPS+ of 89 each). Both are performing better than Votto, India, Senzel and Farmer as of this morning.

So far, the Reds have nothing to show for this trade. Fraley is an interchangeable part whose defense may be as bad or worse than Winker in the OF. Dunn will be over a full calendar year on the DL with shoulder issues before he hopefully appears in a big league game again. Not very high hopes there. The pitching prospects are OK so far, but success in High A doesn't really impress me much (though its a lot better than failure in high A). We'll know about Willianson and Phillips after they've had 350 innings in the big leagues or they been dealt for somebody else who helps the team. Until then, they aren't anything.

Oh and the money saved was used on Pham (about the same offensive production as Winker and well below Suarez), Minor (hasn't appeared yet and just had a poor outing in rehab). Solano, out indefinitely, and Moran (probably the best of the bunch so far with an OPS+ of 74 and surprisingly good defense at 1B).

Still looks like a horrible deal from here.

It’s not a re-evaluation. Just how it looks currently, it will likely change quite a bit moving forward.

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I disagree about this re-evaluation. Lets add some perspective here. Offense is down everywhere and the AL West is a much tougher hitting environment than GABP and the NL Central. Suarez .760 OPS this morning is a very good OPS+ of 126 and would be the second best bat in the Reds line-up behind only Stephenson. Winker's stinker of a .614 OPS is an OPS+ of 86 which is right in the neighborhood what they Reds are getting from Mike Noustakas and Tommy Phan (OPS+ of 89 each). Both are performing better than Votto, India, Senzel and Farmer as of this morning.

So far, the Reds have nothing to show for this trade. Fraley is an interchangeable part whose defense may be as bad or worse than Winker in the OF. Dunn will be over a full calendar year on the DL with shoulder issues before he hopefully appears in a big league game again. Not very high hopes there. The pitching prospects are OK so far, but success in High A doesn't really impress me much (though its a lot better than failure in high A). We'll know about Willianson and Phillips after they've had 350 innings in the big leagues or they been dealt for somebody else who helps the team. Until then, they aren't anything.

Oh and the money saved was used on Pham (about the same offensive production as Winker and well below Suarez), Minor (hasn't appeared yet and just had a poor outing in rehab). Solano, out indefinitely, and Moran (probably the best of the bunch so far with an OPS+ of 74 and surprisingly good defense at 1B).

Still looks like a horrible deal from here.

It’s not a re-evaluation. Just how it looks currently, it will likely change quite a bit moving forward.

[mth123]

My dad is not a very patient dude. If we watch a baseball game together, he will basically act like it’s over if whoever the Reds are playing score in the first inning and the Reds don’t. I always respond with they play 9 innings. It really seems like you are hiding this trade and it’s not even the middle of the first inning. Real winners and losers of this one probably won’t be known until 2024 or so.

As I said. we won't know what Phillips and Williamson will be until they've had about 350 innings in the big leagues (the same way we won't know what Greene and Lodolo will be until they've had that many innings in the big leagues). Until then, no reason to re-evaluate anything. At the time, I thought it was a horrible deal to give away Winker in order to get somebody to take Suarez contract (which is very reasonable).

If anything, this deal looks worse by re-evaluating it now since Suarez OPS+ of 126 is a bargain at his contract and the Reds have no more to show for the deal than they did at the time it was made and what they spent the money on has added nothing in comparison to what they gave up.

[Old school 1983]

Suarez is striking out at a 31.7% right now. He was among the worst everyday players in the league last year. In any other situation, we’d be saying that the guy is cooked and as soon as less of his fly balls find the seats or his walk rate decreases, he’s not going to be having a good time. His slash line would be considered meh if he were anyone else. .224/.317/.442 isn’t good. Acting like it is because the ball got unjuiced this year is a pretty weak take. Great he stinks like normal, but the league stinks a little more so it’s ok. Suarez didn’t hit many wall scrappers, so I’m thinking the unjuiced ball is impacting him less.

[mth123]

It’s not a re-evaluation. Just how it looks currently, it will likely change quite a bit moving forward.

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It’s not a re-evaluation. Just how it looks currently, it will likely change quite a bit moving forward.

OK. The thread title says "The New "The Trade" Results." Sounds like an evaluation. If its not, OK.

[mth123]

Suarez is striking out at a 31.7% right now. He was among the worst everyday players in the league last year. I’m any other situation, we’d be saying that the guy is cooked and as soon as less of his fly balls find the seats or his walk rate decreases, he’s not going to be having a good time. His slash line would be considered meh if he were anyone else. .224/.317/.442 isn’t good. Acting like it is because the ball got unjuiced this year is a pretty weak take. Great he stinks like normal, but the league stinks a little more so it’s ok. Suarez didn’t hit many wall scrappers, so I’m thinking the unjuiced ball is impacting him less.

He has an OPS+ of 126. Environment and how everyone else is performing can't be ignored. an OPS+ of 126 is an All Star level offensive performance. I've never been impressed with Suarez defense, so I can't speak to that aspect.

[Old school 1983]

He has an OPS+ of 126. Environment and how everyone else is performing can't be ignored. an OPS+ of 126 is an All Star level offensive performance. I've never been impressed with Suarez defense, so I can't speak to that aspect.

That slash line stinks. And you know it. When the balls normalize hell become his self again. Strikeouts don’t travel and his homers will go 450 instead of 430. He’s just about the same just he was last year with the bat. Which was bad. The rest of the league being down a little doesn’t change that

[RedTeamGo!]

OK. The thread title says "The New "The Trade" Results." Sounds like an evaluation. If its not, OK.

Yeah I wanted to make a thread following all the players in the deal. Apologies if I wasn’t clear.

[757690]

Trade itself was ok. Got two good pitching prospects. Mariners took on a salary dump with Suarez.

But even if Reds passed the trade, they flunked the situation.

The best play was to hold both Suarez and Moose into the 2022 season. Both are fundamentally good players who had declined. Neither is that old. One of them (if not both) was likely to improve his trade value.

Similar to other Reds trades. They want to dump salary and the timing, therefore, does not maximize value.

I agree with all of this.

I do have a peculiar view of Suarez, however. Adding him definitely was a salary dump by the Reds, but I don’t think that adding him lowered the return from the Mariners. Suarez might have been too expensive for the Reds, but his contract was still a decent value to any team who thought he was going to bounce back to anything decent. I think Mariners were one of those teams.

If Suarez just bounces back to a 2 WAR player, he earns the rest of his contract, and it looks like he has a good chance of that. I think the Mariners expected that, and that is why the wanted him in the trade. I think that return the Reds got in that trade was a decent return for Winker alone. Two solid pitching prospects and two young, cheap, role players for a 3 WAR DH with two expensive years of control left. I think Suarez was added by the Reds to get rid of his contract, and nothing else came in return. The Mariners were glad to take on his contract for free.

[mth123]

That slash line stinks. And you know it. When the balls normalize hell become his self again. Strikeouts don’t travel and his homers will go 450 instead of 430. He’s just about the same just he was last year with the bat. Which was bad. The rest of the league being down a little doesn’t change that

I disagree. What was bad last year, is good this year. An OPS+ of 100 is league average. In Cincinnati an OPS of .730 is league average this year. Suarez .760, even if it didn't improve by moving to Cincy and the NL Central (which I believe it surely would) would still make him a well above average bat. Looking at OPS in a vacuum isn't really how to use the stat to evaluate anything.

[RedTeamGo!]

Trade itself was ok. Got two good pitching prospects. Mariners took on a salary dump with Suarez.

But even if Reds passed the trade, they flunked the situation.

The best play was to hold both Suarez and Moose into the 2022 season. Both are fundamentally good players who had declined. Neither is that old. One of them (if not both) was likely to improve his trade value.

Similar to other Reds trades. They want to dump salary and the timing, therefore, does not maximize value.

100% agree with this post

[Old school 1983]

I disagree. What was bad last year, is good this year. An OPS+ of 100 is league average. In Cincinnati an OPS of .730 is league average this year. Suarez .760, even if it didn't improve by moving to Cincy and the NL Central (which I believe it surely would) would still make him a well above average bat. Looking at OPS in a vacuum isn't really how to use the stat to evaluate anything.

The guy hits home runs that are bombs. And adds very little else offensively. The league has dipped and he’s stayed relatively the same. The unjuiced ball isn’t impacting him as much IMO. A previously 450 foot homer is still a homer. Just 430 feet. The ball won’t impact strikeouts and walks. If the best defense of him is he’s kinda stayed the same (not good) and the rest of the league dropped off some, so therefore, not good looks a little polished up, the Reds made the right call to move him. Right now the Reds have scrap heap Drury outperforming him. If Solano was healthy, I bet he would be too. Suarez’s current performance can easily be had off the scrap heap.

[MoneyInTheBank]

Let's, at least, get Suarez's HR distances accurate

7 of his 193 pre-2022 HRs traveled 450 feet
90 of his 193 pre-2022 HRs traveled less than 400 feet
1 of his 7 2022 HRs traveled more than 415 feet
He has averaged ~400 feet on his HRs for his career

[SteelSD]

The guy hits home runs that are bombs. And adds very little else offensively. The league has dipped and heÂ’s stayed relatively the same. The unjuiced ball isnÂ’t impacting him as much IMO. A previously 450 foot homer is still a homer. Just 430 feet. The ball wonÂ’t impact strikeouts and walks. If the best defense of him is heÂ’s kinda stayed the same (not good) and the rest of the league dropped off some, so therefore, not good looks a little polished up, the Reds made the right call to move him. Right now the Reds have scrap heap Drury outperforming him. If Solano was healthy, I bet he would be too. SuarezÂ’s current performance can easily be had off the scrap heap.

No one posts an average HR distances of 450 feet. Suarez' average HR travels around 400 feet. Over the past few seasons, that puts him between MLB average and bottom of the top third of all qualified hitters.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leade...n=&team=&min=q

[mth123]

The guy hits home runs that are bombs. And adds very little else offensively. The league has dipped and he’s stayed relatively the same. The unjuiced ball isn’t impacting him as much IMO. A previously 450 foot homer is still a homer. Just 430 feet. The ball won’t impact strikeouts and walks. If the best defense of him is he’s kinda stayed the same (not good) and the rest of the league dropped off some, so therefore, not good looks a little polished up, the Reds made the right call to move him. Right now the Reds have scrap heap Drury outperforming him. If Solano was healthy, I bet he would be too. Suarez’s current performance can easily be had off the scrap heap.

So if it gets harder for everyone else to produce and they take a step backward (or three) he still moves ahead relative to who else you could get to play his position. What you are saying makes no sense. So the Reds got Brandan Drury. He also has an OPS+ of 126 ( so Suarez .760 is roughly the same as Drury's .840). How much better would this team be if they had both?

[Old school 1983]

No one posts an average HR distances of 450 feet. Suarez' average HR travels around 400 feet. Over the past few seasons, that puts him between MLB average and bottom of the top third of all qualified hitters.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leade...n=&team=&min=q

I wasn’t trying to calculate his exact distance. It wasn’t meant to be verbatim. 400 is way out in the vast majority of stadiums unless you’re going dead center. I think you just strengthened my point. Dude isn’t hitting wall scrappers.