The New “The Trade” Results

[Old school 1983]

In regards to your last paragraph, I feel like everyone in this thread is grading the trade incomplete right now and yelling at each other about how they are the only ones grading it an incomplete.

I think you are badly missing the point on Suarez:

I think we can agree that, at the time of the trade, Winker had positive value and Suarez had negative value. This means Winker, by himself was worth Dunn, Fraley, Williamson, Phillips, PLUS. The addition of Suarez took away that PLUS. Suarez was coming off a career worst season and many here argued (myself included) that Winker should have been traded alone for the greatest return and Suarez should be given the chance to rebuild value (not kept nor banking on 2019 Suarez). If Suarez is a 1.5 WAR player this year (less than HALF of peak-Suarez), he will give Seattle surplus value on his salary this season. At half peak-Suarez, he may have netted the Reds another mid-tier prospect. Not only will he not be bringing the Reds that mid-tier prospect, it cost the Reds on their return on the Winker trade. For me, whether Phillips, Williamson, Fraley and Dunn are ultimately more valuable than Winker and Suarez is irrelevant. It is about whether this front office has the ability to extract maximum value for their assets on the trade market. Not "did they 'win' the trade?" For their new "sustainability" plan to succeed, they MUST be able to do so.

You’re right. The Reds must win these deals. Part of winning this deal was getting Suarez’s money, and to a lesser extent, Winker’s off the books. That’s a tick over 18M this year and likely more next year. This year there is a pretty easily drawn inference that the money was spent on Pham, Solano and Minor.

Right now, Winker has -0.6 bWAR. Suarez has 0.8. The Ms have netted .2 bWAR thus far. Right now Pham has 0.3 and the other 2 guys…both likely to put up positive totals, have been out due to injury.

All of those guys are on one year deals, so the money could be going to someone else better than those guys next year. Some FA that could be had for that range are Benintendi, Nimmo, and Wilson Contreas (Stephenson could move to 1b, Votto DH). If the Reds use the money any of the guys like those mentioned above, the Reds could win the deal with zero of the return suiting up for the Reds.

Getting out of Suarez’s contract was a win. Likely getting out of Winker’s was too. Especially if the money is invested in players that will provide more excess value.

The Reds will win this deal if they spend the save money on value. That’s not even considering the prospects. Freeing up $18M this year, between 18-20M next year and $11.2M the following season is a big deal.

[Bourgeois Zee]

Getting out of Suarez’s contract was a win. Likely getting out of Winker’s was too.

Nope.

[Ron Madden]

Originally Posted by Old school 1983 View Post
Getting out of Suarez’s contract was a win. Likely getting out of Winker’s was too.

Yeah, a win for Bob and Phil

[RedsfaninMT]

Yeah, a win for Bob and Phil

Exactly! I never understand fans making an argument that saving money is somehow a win for them. Frankly, I don't give a damn about the Castellini's bottom line. They will make an unimaginable profit when they eventually sell the team. I want them to field a competitive team NOW. Maybe my glasses need to be replaced, but it seemed like last year's team was at least competitive. One additional OF with Castellanos re-signed and my expectation was a likely playoff spot. You make the playoffs and all bets are off. They're asking me to trust them in the process. They've done NOTHING to earn that trust. As I've said in previous posts, I used to go back to Ohio every summer to catch a few games (and see my aged folks), but the Reds get not another dime of my money until they prove they are trying to feild a MLB team.

[JCM11]

Let's suppose the Reds held onto to Winker this year and he was having the same -0.6 WAR season for us as he is the M's right now. Everyone would be saying how the Reds should have traded him at peak value. I'm glad the Reds didn't give such a one dimensional player a big long term contract, and I seriously doubt we could have landed a return like Williamson and Phillips if we waited until the 2022 deadline to move him.

[Old school 1983]

I’m sure if anyone the Reds got in the deal becomes good, we’ll be hearing how they got lucky. If the Reds spend the money on a better player/players, it’ll just be denied or people will act like we could of had both. Not much more for me to say on this one.

[JFLegal]

When we talk about Williamson and Phillips it reminds me of late 80s band Wilson Phillips.

Hold on for one more day, Redzoners.

[westofyou]

Let's suppose the Reds held onto to Winker this year and he was having the same -0.6 WAR season for us as he is the M's right now. Everyone would be saying how the Reds should have traded him at peak value. I'm glad the Reds didn't give such a one dimensional player a big long term contract, and I seriously doubt we could have landed a return like Williamson and Phillips if we waited until the 2022 deadline to move him.

Winker is having a weird season, April he walked 17 times in 89 PA's with 12 K's and 2 EBH this month he has 86 PA's and 4 walks, 12 K's and 7 EBH

Month one was nothing but OB%, month two is nothing but meh slugging. It's like he's being challenged more now and getting more chances to swing than in month one but the results are mixed.

[Benihana]

Is it possible this trade could become the Alex Wood/Matt Kemp trade but in reverse?

That trade also had the Reds shedding an albatross LTC, but taking on proven veterans and sending away B level prospects, looked great at the outset but the veterans flopped and the prospects were better than expected?

This trade sent away proven veterans for B level prospects and caused people to renounce their fandom at the outset, but (albeit way too early to judge)…

[RedsManRick]

Winker vL: .283/.365/.522
Winker vR: .189/.285/.208

No, those aren't backwards. I guess he's a platoon guy after all.

[mth123]

When we talk about Williamson and Phillips it reminds me of late 80s band Wilson Phillips.

Hold on for one more day, Redzoners.

I was on a plane with them once. I was wondering who the good looking woman in first class was and it was Chyna Phillips (I found out later). The whole group was on the plane.

[MoneyInTheBank]

You’re right. The Reds must win these deals. Part of winning this deal was getting Suarez’s money, and to a lesser extent, Winker’s off the books. That’s a tick over 18M this year and likely more next year. This year there is a pretty easily drawn inference that the money was spent on Pham, Solano and Minor.

Right now, Winker has -0.6 bWAR. Suarez has 0.8. The Ms have netted .2 bWAR thus far. Right now Pham has 0.3 and the other 2 guys…both likely to put up positive totals, have been out due to injury.

All of those guys are on one year deals, so the money could be going to someone else better than those guys next year. Some FA that could be had for that range are Benintendi, Nimmo, and Wilson Contreas (Stephenson could move to 1b, Votto DH). If the Reds use the money any of the guys like those mentioned above, the Reds could win the deal with zero of the return suiting up for the Reds.

Getting out of Suarez’s contract was a win. Likely getting out of Winker’s was too. Especially if the money is invested in players that will provide more excess value.

The Reds will win this deal if they spend the save money on value. That’s not even considering the prospects. Freeing up $18M this year, between 18-20M next year and $11.2M the following season is a big deal.

If you take your car to an auto pawn, you didn't get full value for your car just because you don't have to make the payments anymore and you bought stuff with the money.

[SteelSD]

Fair enough. I’ll stand corrected. What if anything, about Suarez makes you think he’d be worth hanging onto moving forward. I’m seeing a guy who strikes out at a high rate, gets on base at a low rate, whose whole game revolves around connecting on a couple homers now and then, who is on the wrong side of 30. To me, that’s a guy you could generally find for cheaper than Suarez’s going rate.

If there was more evidence that 2019 Suarez, or anything even close to that, was around the corner, I’d be more apt to believe he’d have been worth keeping. It seems to me that people are trying to point to a mishmash of performances, last years by Winker and this years by Suarez…which IMO…is small sample and not that good of one…to try to make the trade look worse. At the time of the trade, Winker was a beast with the bat against RHP, and added not much else. Suarez as a complete dud who had a little bounce back potential.

Right now, I rate the deal with a grade of incomplete. We’ve not seen Dunn. Fraley was likely playing hurt, and the other 2 guys are still in the minors. It could end very well for the Reds, or very poorly.

Just to be clear, I'm not saying that Suarez was worth hanging onto; only that some of the stuff you're using to justify the deal isn't quite accurate.

I also think we all need to get something straight about the trade- this was an NBA-style salary dump, where the Reds attached a good player (Winker) in order to simply move salary. But they didn't return signficant assets while doing so. They got a 25-year old RH pitcher (Dunn) with decent MiLB stats, but who they knew had a significant injury and who has, thus far, shown nothing at the MLB level. Jake Fraley isn't actually a prospect- he's 26 year-old OF filler material who's been pretty terrible in his attempts to transition to the Show. He has good plate discipline, but no significant power skill set to speak of and we generally see the former dry up if the latter never shows up. That leaves Brandon Williamson, our latest iteration of "big kid throws hard", who's working his way through AA at age 24, while walking a few too many hitters and giving up a few too many HR. These are magic beans that smell kinda' funky. Maybe they're licorice nibs instead? Jelly beans? Tic tacs? The Reds don't seem to know, or care. But certainly they really didn't get much youth and if we're going to be brutally honest, they really didn't acquire terribly exciting projectible talent in that deal.

These were bad trade targets in exchange for the outgoing players. If they're bad targets, they're bad choices. And if they're bad choices, it's a bad trade. There's no "incomplete" on that. Could everything go right for the players acquired? Probably not. Could something go right? Maybe. I certainly hope so. But the incoming players were a volume grab to try to hide the fact that truly significant resources didn't arrive.

BTW, Jesse Winker is a hell of a hitter. He has been his entire career. For seasons now. His only real issue has been health.

The real target, besides lowering payroll, appears to be tanking for the top spot in the draft, probably many top spots going forward. For years. And that's where the tanking plan diverges from being NBA-esque. In baseball, you may need to wait significantly longer for your crapshoot prize to materialize into something of value, if it ever happens at all. It's rolling dice for the chance to play roulette. It's cheap, because it is. It's painful because it preys on a fanbase's hope. And it's insulting because it relies on the average fan's good will and patience, when said fan should be, by now, so dazed by the organization's bumbling that the little voice in their head starts whispering "Hey, that really doesn't look so bad..." when they think of the Pittsburgh Pirates.

[RedTeamGo!]

Just to be clear, I'm not saying that Suarez was worth hanging onto; only that some of the stuff you're using to justify the deal isn't quite accurate.

I also think we all need to get something straight about the trade- this was an NBA-style salary dump, where the Reds attached a good player (Winker) in order to simply move salary. But they didn't return signficant assets while doing so. They got a 25-year old RH pitcher (Dunn) with decent MiLB stats, but who they knew had a significant injury and who has, thus far, shown nothing at the MLB level. Jake Fraley isn't actually a prospect- he's 26 year-old OF filler material who's been pretty terrible in his attempts to transition to the Show. He has good plate discipline, but no significant power skill set to speak of and we generally see the former dry up if the latter never shows up. That leaves Brandon Williamson, our latest iteration of "big kid throws hard", who's working his way through AA at age 24, while walking a few too many hitters and giving up a few too many HR. These are magic beans that smell kinda' funky. Maybe they're licorice nibs instead? Jelly beans? Tic tacs? The Reds don't seem to know, or care. But certainly they really didn't get much youth and if we're going to be brutally honest, they really didn't acquire terribly exciting projectible talent in that deal.

These were bad trade targets in exchange for the outgoing players. If they're bad targets, they're bad choices. And if they're bad choices, it's a bad trade. There's no "incomplete" on that. Could everything go right for the players acquired? Probably not. Could something go right? Maybe. I certainly hope so. But the incoming players were a volume grab to try to hide the fact that truly significant resources didn't arrive.

BTW, Jesse Winker is a hell of a hitter. He has been his entire career. For seasons now. His only real issue has been health.

The real target, besides lowering payroll, appears to be tanking for the top spot in the draft, probably many top spots going forward. For years. And that's where the tanking plan diverges from being NBA-esque. In baseball, you may need to wait significantly longer for your crapshoot prize to materialize into something of value, if it ever happens at all. It's rolling dice for the chance to play roulette. It's cheap, because it is. It's painful because it preys on a fanbase's hope. And it's insulting because it relies on the average fan's good will and patience, when said fan should be, by now, so dazed by the organization's bumbling that the little voice in their head starts whispering "Hey, that really doesn't look so bad..." when they think of the Pittsburgh Pirates.

MLB Pipeline, just today, named Williamson the 87th best prospect in baseball and you completely left off Phillips who looks excellent at A+ Dayton.

I understand and mostly agree with your overall sentiment, however, there’s no reason to poo-poo those two players to prove your point.

[SteelSD]

MLB Pipeline, just today, named Williamson the 87th best prospect in baseball and you completely left off Phillips who looks excellent at A+ Dayton.

I understand and mostly agree with your overall sentiment, however, there’s no reason to poo-poo those two players to prove your point.

I don't even consider Connor Phillips a prospect at this point, at least not until he gets his walk rate down consistently.

And I'll comment on whichever players I like, thanks.