The New “The Trade” Results

[HokieRed]

I like the return, primarily because I really like Connor Phillips' stuff. But I also like the possibility that we got possibly 15 controllable seasons of major league pitching in this exchange (Dunn, Phillips, Williamson). Frankly that kind of forward looking deal is the kind it seems to me the Reds must make. OTOH, I hated seeing Winker go, even though I think the trade timing was probably optimal, and I think it's pretty silly not to recognize that the team would have been better off offensively this season with Winker. Ditto Suarez, except with the additional condition that by next year, I think he might have been out of the picture at 3b anyway, if we shift India there and play Barrero and McClain in the center positions. What irritated me there primarily is that it was exactly what I expected them to do and no one can tell me it was not a reflexive more because Moustakas could not be moved. They made the utterly stupid, and utterly predictably bad, contract with Moustakas and then let that lead to another possibly bad move in the Suarez trade (though overall I actually like the trade). I think the additional context is that this team really wasn't very good last year. They were, otoh, extraordinarily lucky, with an absolute annis mirabilis out of a 37 year Votto, and an equally miraculous 5.9 bWar year out of Miley, as well as what looks very much like a career year out of Mahle. And still finished 7 games out of the wild card. It was time for major change.

[Old school 1983]

So if it gets harder for everyone else to produce and they take a step backward (or three) he still moves ahead relative to who else you could get to play his position. What you are saying makes no sense. So the Reds got Brandan Drury. He also has an OPS+ of 126 ( so Suarez .760 is roughly the same as Drury's .840). How much better would this team be if they had both?

It’s his style of play man. 3 outcome player. Walk. K. Homer. Walk. The unjuiced ball has minimal impact. Not put in play. K. Same thing. His average HR distance is 400 feet as provided by MIB and Steel. Unless you hit it dead center, that’s going out regardless. Even if the unjuiced ball is taking 15-20 feet off flies. 380-385 is still going out from the foul pole to the power alley in a lot of parks.

He’s a 3 outcome hitter with a 31% K rate and not shown much OBP ability since 2019. That’s a massive red flag. Especially on a guy that’s now on the wrong side of 30. He’s not that good anymore and his numbers look a little better against the league because the league as a whole has dipped. His numbers could also very well be a short sample mirage. It was time to move on.

[Ron Madden]

6,074 posts and 6,000 are anti Geno Suarez.

[Old school 1983]

6,074 posts and 6,000 are anti Geno Suarez.

That’s what happens when you haven’t been good in 3 seasons. I’m glad being bad and occasionally running into one makes his OPS+ look shinier because the rest of the league is down. I’d be more impressed if he learned how to find first base without hitter a homer again.

[Old school 1983]

6,074 posts and 6,000 are anti Geno Suarez.

Also. The fist 3000 were criticizing Todd Frazier before ED worked with him to change his stance and slightly tighten up his plate approach.

[LeatherPants]

That’s what happens when you haven’t been good in 3 seasons. I’m glad being bad and occasionally running into one makes his OPS+ look shinier because the rest of the league is down. I’d be more impressed if he learned how to find first base without hitter a homer again.

He’s got a 130 wRC+, and nobody should really care how he’s gotten there.

[westofyou]

He’s got a 130 wRC+, and nobody should really care how he’s gotten there.

He's kinda Mark Reynolds now, K's 1.42 every game. That's 230 per 162 games

He's a fit on teams that don't have those guys but it can be a feast or famine thing with them as well.

[SteelSD]

I wasn’t trying to calculate his exact distance. It wasn’t meant to be verbatim. 400 is way out in the vast majority of stadiums unless you’re going dead center. I think you just strengthened my point. Dude isn’t hitting wall scrappers.

No. The average MLB HR distance is @400 feet and has been for years. Suarez doesn't actually have a propensity to launch them consistently further than where the average HR ball lands.

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/m...-the-baseball/

[JFLegal]

why do you guys keep saying "5 years of controllable years" instead of 6? did they change the rules where players are only under team control for 5 years after they're called up?

[kaldaniels]

why do you guys keep saying "5 years of controllable years" instead of 6? did they change the rules where players are only under team control for 5 years after they're called up?

What/who are you referring to? Hokie mentioned 15 years total for the 3, which perhaps he accounted for Dunn only being controlled for 4 more years (he came into the year at 2+ years service time) counting this one, and this year is kinda a lost cause?

[HokieRed]

What/who are you referring to? Hokie mentioned 15 years total for the 3, which perhaps he accounted for Dunn only being controlled for 4 more years (he came into the year at 2+ years service time) counting this one, and this year is kinda a lost cause?

Yeah that's how I was counting. 4 really for Dunn, though I made it 3 because I figured somebody would jump on me if I made it 4, and then 6 for each of the others.

[JFLegal]

What/who are you referring to? Hokie mentioned 15 years total for the 3, which perhaps he accounted for Dunn only being controlled for 4 more years (he came into the year at 2+ years service time) counting this one, and this year is kinda a lost cause?

perhaps i was mistaken, but i thought there were other references too. i don't really pay any attention to dunn or fraley. but i thought a couple posters said something about the reds would have control of phillips & williamson for 5 years each (10 total) instead of 6 years each (12 total).

[Old school 1983]

No. The average MLB HR distance is @400 feet and has been for years. Suarez doesn't actually have a propensity to launch them consistently further than where the average HR ball lands.

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/m...-the-baseball/

Fair enough. I’ll stand corrected. What if anything, about Suarez makes you think he’d be worth hanging onto moving forward. I’m seeing a guy who strikes out at a high rate, gets on base at a low rate, whose whole game revolves around connecting on a couple homers now and then, who is on the wrong side of 30. To me, that’s a guy you could generally find for cheaper than Suarez’s going rate.

If there was more evidence that 2019 Suarez, or anything even close to that, was around the corner, I’d be more apt to believe he’d have been worth keeping. It seems to me that people are trying to point to a mishmash of performances, last years by Winker and this years by Suarez…which IMO…is small sample and not that good of one…to try to make the trade look worse. At the time of the trade, Winker was a beast with the bat against RHP, and added not much else. Suarez as a complete dud who had a little bounce back potential.

Right now, I rate the deal with a grade of incomplete. We’ve not seen Dunn. Fraley was likely playing hurt, and the other 2 guys are still in the minors. It could end very well for the Reds, or very poorly.

[MoneyInTheBank]

Fair enough. I’ll stand corrected. What if anything, about Suarez makes you think he’d be worth hanging onto moving forward. I’m seeing a guy who strikes out at a high rate, gets on base at a low rate, whose whole game revolves around connecting on a couple homers now and then, who is on the wrong side of 30. To me, that’s a guy you could generally find for cheaper than Suarez’s going rate.

If there was more evidence that 2019 Suarez, or anything even close to that, was around the corner, I’d be more apt to believe he’d have been worth keeping. It seems to me that people are trying to point to a mishmash of performances, last years by Winker and this years by Suarez…which IMO…is small sample and not that good of one…to try to make the trade look worse. At the time of the trade, Winker was a beast with the bat against RHP, and added not much else. Suarez as a complete dud who had a little bounce back potential.

Right now, I rate the deal with a grade of incomplete. We’ve not seen Dunn. Fraley was likely playing hurt, and the other 2 guys are still in the minors. It could end very well for the Reds, or very poorly.

In regards to your last paragraph, I feel like everyone in this thread is grading the trade incomplete right now and yelling at each other about how they are the only ones grading it an incomplete.

I think you are badly missing the point on Suarez:

I think we can agree that, at the time of the trade, Winker had positive value and Suarez had negative value. This means Winker, by himself was worth Dunn, Fraley, Williamson, Phillips, PLUS. The addition of Suarez took away that PLUS. Suarez was coming off a career worst season and many here argued (myself included) that Winker should have been traded alone for the greatest return and Suarez should be given the chance to rebuild value (not kept nor banking on 2019 Suarez). If Suarez is a 1.5 WAR player this year (less than HALF of peak-Suarez), he will give Seattle surplus value on his salary this season. At half peak-Suarez, he may have netted the Reds another mid-tier prospect. Not only will he not be bringing the Reds that mid-tier prospect, it cost the Reds on their return on the Winker trade. For me, whether Phillips, Williamson, Fraley and Dunn are ultimately more valuable than Winker and Suarez is irrelevant. It is about whether this front office has the ability to extract maximum value for their assets on the trade market. Not "did they 'win' the trade?" For their new "sustainability" plan to succeed, they MUST be able to do so.

[757690]

why do you guys keep saying "5 years of controllable years" instead of 6? did they change the rules where players are only under team control for 5 years after they're called up?

I am always going to assume that the Reds trade any decent player before they reach free agency.