The New “The Trade” Results

[Old school 1983]

I mentioned Gallo one time as a way to try to move a conversation forward. Other names I’ve mentioned consistently are Judge, Nimmo, Benintendi, Wilson Contreas, and Edwin Diaz.

But that’s a digression. Here’s your post below:

You can call it twisting if you want but the context here is important. He had one terrible, no good, very bad season accounting for 145 games and -0.7 bWAR of that total.

145 games (2021 season): -0.7 bWAR
100 games (2020 & 2022, combined): 1.5 bWAR

You're right, time will tell, but 2021 is looking more and more like an outlier

It looks like you combined two periods of better, but drastically decreased, production that were sandwiched around what we can agree was a terrible season.

You typed that’s about 1.5WAR. I extrapolated it out to 150 games to see what his new higher level of production would be for a full season. I think it’s safe to assume at this point 2018 and 2019 have a low likelihood of returning. That number came out to be about 2 WAR. That’s commonly held to be the floor for an MLB starter. I wasn’t trying to put words in your mouth, but it did seem logical to extrapolate that new normal out over a full season given that you had already done that for 100 games. I went the extra step. As far as Drury. I brought him up as an example of what could potentially fill the level of production that Suarez would give assuming that 100 game sample you provided is his mew normal. It’s far less than $11M+ a year.

My point being. Even if what you showed is Suarez’s new normal, it still was a decent risk to take to be rid of his contract. That point rings even more true given the info available at the time of the trade. The people on your side of this argument seem to be assuming that Suarez can only bounce back. In terms of WAR I agree. He was drastically out of position last year. But in terms of offensive production. Im not so sure that’s a certainty, or if it is, it will the bounce back be anything more than Pyrrhic victory of we got WAR to dollar value or slightly more out him when the same WAR could be had for a much cheaper piece and his salary be invested elsewhere.

[HokieRed]

I'd trade Williamson and Phillips to get Winker back 100 times out of 100. I'd add a couple Million if they'd take Fraley too.

Would you look to extend Winker beyond his free agency year? (I'm just trying to get a read on what people think Winker is actually worth, since everybody seems to be assuming that inclusion of Suarez reduced the worth of 2 years of Winker0

[Old school 1983]

Agreed.
kinda seems like a personal vendetta, doesn't it?

No. It’s not. I like Suarez as a guy. A lot. He seems like a very good dude who loved being a Red and played the game with joy and passion. Gallo was mentioned to him in passing as a way to try to make peace and move a conversation forward.

[Wonderful Monds]

There was no urgency to get out of Suarez’s contract, point blank. I was totally fine with dumping him. I think doing some kinda funny math to reach the conclusion that he’s been mostly good actually since 2020 is missing the forest for the trees - I’m good with ditching Mendoza line hitters as everyday lineup pieces, other stats be damned.

But they had their options to get rid of Suarez’s contract. Eat half of it maybe, attach a C prospect instead of one of your most valuable trade pieces/all star LF. Or just hang onto him. As already mentioned, 11 mil is not backbreaking or life changing money for an MLB club anymore. Just be smart about building a bench and not blowing money on guys like Solano or Minor until he’s gone if you absolutely have to.

Or more realistically, don’t be cheapskates in the first place getting all twisted up about paying a manageable payroll.

[MoneyInTheBank]

I mentioned Gallo one time as a way to try to move a conversation forward. Other names I’ve mentioned consistently are Judge, Nimmo, Benintendi, Wilson Contreas, and Edwin Diaz.

But that’s a digression. Here’s your post below:



It looks like you combined two periods of better, but drastically decreased, production that were sandwiched around what we can agree was a terrible season.

You typed that’s about 1.5WAR. I extrapolated it out to 150 games to see what his new higher level of production would be for a full season. I think it’s safe to assume at this point 2018 and 2019 have a low likelihood of returning. That number came out to be about 2 WAR. That’s commonly held to be the floor for an MLB starter. I wasn’t trying to put words in your mouth, but it did seem logical to extrapolate that new normal out over a full season given that you had already done that for 100 games. I went the extra step. As far as Drury. I brought him up as an example of what could potentially fill the level of production that Suarez would give assuming that 100 game sample you provided is his mew normal. It’s far less than $11M+ a year.

My point being. Even if what you showed is Suarez’s new normal, it still was a decent risk to take to be rid of his contract. That point rings even more true given the info available at the time of the trade. The people on your side of this argument seem to be assuming that Suarez can only bounce back. In terms of WAR I agree. He was drastically out of position last year. But in terms of offensive production. Im not so sure that’s a certainty, or if it is, it will the bounce back be anything more than Pyrrhic victory of we got WAR to dollar value or slightly more out him when the same WAR could be had for a much cheaper piece and his salary be invested elsewhere.

Does it make you feel better if I separate 2020 and 2022?

You can call it twisting if you want but the context here is important. He had one terrible, no good, very bad season accounting for 145 games and -0.7 bWAR of that total.

2020 (57 games): 0.6 bWAR
2021 (145 games): -0.7 bWAR
2022 (43 games): 0.9 bWAR

You're right, time will tell, but 2021 is looking more and more like an outlier

I notice you didn't jump all over the OP who aggregated ALL of his production over the last 3 seasons as it supports your "Suarez sucks" agenda.

You are again putting words in my mouth. I didn't say that was his "new normal". And I'm not going to speak for "people on my side of the argument", I can only speak for myself. As I stated before, it was reasonable to think he would bounce back. Not "he can only bounce back". You have again ignored my argument which is dumping him at his lowest value was poor asset management. If you sell assets for fifty cents on the dollar, what you purchase with the fifty cents doesn't change the fact that you sold low.

You don't like his slash line or how he gets his production, fine, I get it. However, your claim about how much he sucks is shaky and you should expect some pushback

[mth123]

Would you look to extend Winker beyond his free agency year? (I'm just trying to get a read on what people think Winker is actually worth, since everybody seems to be assuming that inclusion of Suarez reduced the worth of 2 years of Winker0

I wouldn't mind extending him. Moose and Votto are going to be gone and DH will be wide open. He can play LF for a year while they try to find a permanent solution. He's hit everywhere he's been. He may have an OPS+ of 84 today (about the same as Moose and Pham btw) but I expect it to get a lot better.

Mostly though, I just don't believe pitching prospects at that level are worth pursuing as primary returns. No problem accumulating a bunch of prospects through the draft or getting them added as the second guy in a deal, but one prospect rated near the bottom of the top 100 and another guy rated below him probably aren't going to end up as assets in a big league rotation. Guys rated like that are probably going to make the big leagues, but they are probably bullpen or whatever types. If you can't get a guy in the top 25 or so overall, focus on something else as the primary return and maybe add somebody like Phillips as the second guy (and pass on guys like Dunn and Fraley who are just clutter who add nothing to the deal).

[Old school 1983]

Does it make you feel better if I separate 2020 and 2022?

You can call it twisting if you want but the context here is important. He had one terrible, no good, very bad season accounting for 145 games and -0.7 bWAR of that total.

2020 (57 games): 0.6 bWAR
2021 (145 games): -0.7 bWAR
2022 (43 games): 0.9 bWAR

You're right, time will tell, but 2021 is looking more and more like an outlier

I notice you didn't jump all over the OP who aggregated ALL of his production over the last 3 seasons as it supports your "Suarez sucks" agenda.

You are again putting words in my mouth. I didn't say that was his "new normal". And I'm not going to speak for "people on my side of the argument", I can only speak for myself. As I stated before, it was reasonable to think he would bounce back. Not "he can only bounce back". You have again ignored my argument which is dumping him at his lowest value was poor asset management. If you sell assets for fifty cents on the dollar, what you purchase with the fifty cents doesn't change the fact that you sold low.

You don't like his slash line or how he gets his production, fine, I get it. However, your claim about how much he sucks is shaky and you should expect some pushback

No. I’m really not putting words in your mouth. I took extra care in my last post to state what I said versus what you said and what I did based upon what you said. I think it’s best I quit posting on this topic and just watch how it all plays out. Have a good one.

[757690]

Thought experiment: would you trade Winker for Williamson and Phillips?

I've been discussing this since the day of the trade. If you look at the data, at the numbers, take the emotion of losing a favorite player out of it, that trade is rather fair.

Winker at best is a 3-4 win player a season. He has two years of team control. That's 6-8 wins as a best case scenario. He is due around $15-20M in arbitration over those two seasons. That gives Winker at best 5 wins of excess value. That is best case trade value. It's probably lower than that, but let's use that for now.

A B level prospect like Williamson or Phillips easily has 5 win trade value by themselves. Think about a prospect like Abbott. He easily is worth 5 wins in trade value. To obtain that, they just need to be a decent reliever during their controllable years. If they are a decent starter for even 2 seasons, they are worth more than that. Two B pitching prospects are likely worth closer to 10 WAR combined.

So Winker for Williamson and Phillips, according to the numbers, is a fair deal, and likely an overpay by the Mariners.

[mth123]

I've been discussing this since the day of the trade. If you look at the data, at the numbers, take the emotion of losing a favorite player out of it, that trade is rather fair.

Winker at best is a 3-4 win player a season. He has two years of team control. That's 6-8 wins as a best case scenario. He is due around $15-20M in arbitration over those two seasons. That gives Winker at best 5 wins of excess value. That is best case trade value. It's probably lower than that, but let's use that for now.

A B level prospect like Williamson or Phillips easily has 5 win trade value by themselves. Think about a prospect like Abbott. He easily is worth 5 wins in trade value. To obtain that, they just need to be a decent reliever during their controllable years. If they are a decent starter for even 2 seasons, they are worth more than that. Two B pitching prospects are likely worth closer to 10 WAR combined.

So Winker for Williamson and Phillips, according to the numbers, is a fair deal, and likely an overpay by the Mariners.

Calling them a B Level prospect is overstating things. Nick Lodolo is a B Level prospect. Williamson probably a C and Phillips a C-.

[757690]

Calling them a B Level prospect is overstating things. Nick Lodolo is a B Level prospect. Williamson probably a C and Phillips a C-.

Whatever you want to call them, they are easily worth over 5 wins combined in trade value.

[LeatherPants]

Whatever you want to call them, they are easily worth over 5 wins combined in trade value.

Quantity over quality almost never works.

People want to make this more complicated than it is: The Reds are cheap idiots and their number one priority is not winning. They want to lockbox into contending every now and then, but if they lose they don’t care as long as they make a profit.

[MoneyInTheBank]

I've been discussing this since the day of the trade. If you look at the data, at the numbers, take the emotion of losing a favorite player out of it, that trade is rather fair.

Winker at best is a 3-4 win player a season. He has two years of team control. That's 6-8 wins as a best case scenario. He is due around $15-20M in arbitration over those two seasons. That gives Winker at best 5 wins of excess value. That is best case trade value. It's probably lower than that, but let's use that for now.

A B level prospect like Williamson or Phillips easily has 5 win trade value by themselves. Think about a prospect like Abbott. He easily is worth 5 wins in trade value. To obtain that, they just need to be a decent reliever during their controllable years. If they are a decent starter for even 2 seasons, they are worth more than that. Two B pitching prospects are likely worth closer to 10 WAR combined.

So Winker for Williamson and Phillips, according to the numbers, is a fair deal, and likely an overpay by the Mariners.

Still wouldn't do it

[757690]

Quantity over quality almost never works.

People want to make this more complicated than it is: The Reds are cheap idiots and their number one priority is not winning. They want to lockbox into contending every now and then, but if they lose they don’t care as long as they make a profit.

This can be a “both, and” situation.

It can be true that the Reds were dumb and cheap and that the return for Winker was a fair deal.

Anyway, wins are wins. Plenty of trades of a veteran for a group of prospects has worked out. Jose Guillén for a package that contained Aaron Harang worked out great for the Reds, and Harang wasn’t even the marquee prospect in the deal.

[mth123]

Whatever you want to call them, they are easily worth over 5 wins combined in trade value.

We'll have to disagree. Guys who are "prospects" are thought of as "prospects" compared to other minor leaguers, the vast majority of whom are filler who won't be major leaguers. These guys are along the lines of Vlad Gutierrez and Sal Romano. Pretty good compared to most minor leaguers, but not somebody to trade your top guys for unless they are thrown into the deal as the second or third guy. I have no problem with the idea of stockpiling these guys in that manner, I just don't like targeting them in a deal like this. Phillips as a secondary piece is fine, but Williamson as the primary piece isn't somebody I'd target.

They'll be lucky to get one reliable bullpen guy for 2 or 3 years out of this deal.

[HokieRed]

I wouldn't mind extending him. Moose and Votto are going to be gone and DH will be wide open. He can play LF for a year while they try to find a permanent solution. He's hit everywhere he's been. He may have an OPS+ of 84 today (about the same as Moose and Pham btw) but I expect it to get a lot better.

Mostly though, I just don't believe pitching prospects at that level are worth pursuing as primary returns. No problem accumulating a bunch of prospects through the draft or getting them added as the second guy in a deal, but one prospect rated near the bottom of the top 100 and another guy rated below him probably aren't going to end up as assets in a big league rotation. Guys rated like that are probably going to make the big leagues, but they are probably bullpen or whatever types. If you can't get a guy in the top 25 or so overall, focus on something else as the primary return and maybe add somebody like Phillips as the second guy (and pass on guys like Dunn and Fraley who are just clutter who add nothing to the deal).

Reasonable response. I probably wouldn't have liked to see them extend Winker at 20 million per for some extended number of years. I've just been kind of wondering whether the initial conversation between Krall and the Mariners was something like Winker for Williamson and Phillips. Vis-a-vis your later post, I generally am skeptical of prospects and am of these as well, but Sal Romano and Vlad Gutierrez never had anything like the "pitch action" Connor Phillips has. According to their scouting director, it was that pitch action as measured by Track Man that caused them to take Phillips in the second round as the first JC guy taken in 2020 (I think I've got the year right)