In your opinion How will the future Reds rotation fare?

[mth123]

I just don't think you can be that rigid in creating a team roster. If they believe all three kids are ready and can help at the major league level, they should bring them up-- and let them pitch in the spot they can believe they'll provide the most help/ value.

As to trades, if they can get value for Williamson and are willing to sign a good veteran arm, that's fine with me. I don't think they'll be willing to sign the going rate for real help or deal Williamson for as much as they paid for him.

Might as well, then, let him help if they believe he's ready.

But when 2 out of 3 fail (or become successful relievers), which is pretty predictably going to happen, then you have two spots in the rotation that are automatic losses each time through. I just don't build a team that way. If they end up being good, the opportunity will arise and they'll end-up showing it. I just don't like the idea of intentionally making a bunch of holes for unprovens to go into. One opening a year is something the team can overcome if the kid fails (partly because you still have other kids you can turn to). Multiple openings is like punting the season. The success rate for even the best of the unproven kids is historically very low. You'll always be chasing your tail with a plan like that. The only people who win are the cheap owners who get a bunch of minimum making guys on the roster

Lets be real. We don't even know how Greene and Lodolo are going to work out yet.

[mth123]

I'd love to see them add one really solid, stable 3/4 type starter. This is assuming Lodolo is in good health (if he's not, they'll need 2 FA SP).

That would give them:

Greene
Lodolo
Free Agent/Trade acquisition
Ashcraft
Abbott
Williamson
Dunn
Spiers
Overton

That is a very solid pool to work from for 2023. 9 guys should be enough to procure an interesting, and potentially good, rotation. It should even leave you with a strong swingman or 2. All of this is in-house aside from the free-agent acquisition.

What I'd really love to see sorted out this season (rather than the first half of 2023) is - which guys should be shifted to the bullpen? Ashcraft could very well be a guy who is better suited as an elite setup man. I'd move Dunn to perma-pen as well. It's fair to assume they try Antone there next season as well. Santillan, Diaz and Solomon look like long-term options. Still no lefties! Gotta resolve that in these upcoming trades.

I'm pretty optimsitic about the Reds being able to assemble a pretty good rotation over time, but doing this all at once has a too familiar ring to it IMO.

Greene > Castillo
Lodolo > Reed
Free Agent/Trade acquisition > Something those previous steams didn't do
Ashcraft - Stephenson
Abbott - Mahle
Williamson - Garrett
Dunn - Bailey
Spiers - Romano
Overton - Lamb

That plan mostly crashed and burned and wasn't fixed until the Reds brought in Gray, Bauer, Miley, Wood and Roark and even some of those guys didn't really work out (and it was adding the veteran arms that fixed things not the pitching coach btw). Put me down as against a wide-open rotation filled with a bunch of kids. They are already going with three kids this year. That's two too many IMO, but we're down that road now. It gets a lot worse when Castillo and Mahle are dealt. I doubt it will become competitive again without multiple established guys added to the mix.

[Boston Red]

I'm going with Green, Lodolo and Ashcraft are Smoltz, Glavine and Maddux....until they're not. In a few years we can even add a Steve Avery.

Would make for a very nice 2024 or 2025!

[mth123]

I'm going with Green, Lodolo and Ashcraft are Smoltz, Glavine and Maddux....until they're not. In a few years we can even add a Steve Avery.

Would make for a very nice 2024 or 2025!

So you are just going to assume they are Hall of Famers? Its nice to dream on, but if Dreams were reality, my Supermodel wife and would be frolicking on the beach of my private island that I bought with my excess Millions. We have to live in the real world. One guy has had three good starts and an ERA of roughly 5.5, the other has had a two good starts with a similar ERA and is out indefinitely with back issues. The third guy pitches 4.1 Innings, Walks 2, Hit a batter and had two wild pitches.

BTW, I might even accept that Greene and Lodolo are Smoltz and Glavine. Maddux was an established Cy Young winner they brought in from outside. If the Reds bring one of those in, I'll feel better about the plan.

[Boston Red]

BTW, I might even accept that Greene and Lodolo are Smoltz and Glavine. Maddux was an established Cy Young winner they brought in from outside. If the Reds bring one of those in, I'll feel better about the plan.

Yes, I was thinking the same (in the fantasy world). Hey, we brought in Bauer once (who didn't win the Cy Young until he got to Cincinnati, but same idea). Perhaps we can do it again? The rest of the guys definitely look more like candidates to be the Steve Avery! Amazing those guys were all born within a year of each other and ended up in Atlanta together for such a run. Obviously a longshot that any of them will be THAT good, but I DO think it's probably the right plan to think of Greene and Lodolo as those kinds of cornerstones of the franchise for close to the next decade. At least for now.

[Bourgeois Zee]

I'd love to see them add one really solid, stable 3/4 type starter. This is assuming Lodolo is in good health (if he's not, they'll need 2 FA SP).

That would give them:

Greene
Lodolo
Free Agent/Trade acquisition
Ashcraft
Abbott
Williamson
Dunn
Spiers
Overton

That is a very solid pool to work from for 2023. 9 guys should be enough to procure an interesting, and potentially good, rotation. It should even leave you with a strong swingman or 2. All of this is in-house aside from the free-agent acquisition.

What I'd really love to see sorted out this season (rather than the first half of 2023) is - which guys should be shifted to the bullpen? Ashcraft could very well be a guy who is better suited as an elite setup man. I'd move Dunn to perma-pen as well. It's fair to assume they try Antone there next season as well. Santillan, Diaz and Solomon look like long-term options. Still no lefties! Gotta resolve that in these upcoming trades.

Agreed on the pool of interesting pitchers. Add in the young bullpen pieces (Diaz, Solomon, Santillan, et al.) and veteran arms (Antone, Warren, maybe Hoffman, Cessa), and they've got a solid start.

IMO, Abbott, Spiers, and Williamson likely won't be ready by 2023. Greene is a decent beginning.

I'd be looking for an innings eater who's above average and pay relatively big money for him. (A $30M one-year deal for Joe Musgrove, for example. Assuming he's healthy.) He'd slot in either in front of or behind Greene in the rotation. Lodolo, Ashcraft, Dunn, Antone, and Overton are all in the same boat, pretty much. They could be starters, or they could be relief arms. Lodolo, IMO, has an inside edge to a spot, if only because of his monster minor league numbers from last season and his innings so far this year.

That's three spots.

That leaves Ashcraft, Antone, Dunn, and Overton for the last two spots. Which should be okay, assuming all are healthy. (They could always try to add depth there.)

[RustyJ]

Abbott seems really solid, but his stuff is slightly short. I think he might well end up a Mike Leake type-- lots of innings just slightly better than league average. As a lefty, he does provide a different viewpoint. Really like that.

We’ll see how it plays out, but I’m not gonna cap his ceiling because he doesn’t have super high-end velo. A lefty with spin, deception, and command at the top of the zone can be lethal, and it’s not like he’s topping out at 90 either.

[JCM11]

If Castillo and Mahle are moved then they have to spend(either in FA or via trade) for at least one proven SP. Even going for 4 in house youth SP next year is a stretch IMO. I would feel comfortable with Green and Lodolo(assuming health) being penciled in for two spots with Ashcraft and Williamson splitting the #5 spot. I would prefer at least two vets in the rotation next year(could be Castillo and Mahle for all we know).

[Slyder]

How well do you think a healthy future rotation of
Greene
Lodolo
Ashcraft and
Williamson fare?

I know it's a longshot they will all be healthy and productive.
But lets dream and say they all put together a couple healthy seasons. Would they be above, below or league average as a rotation in your opinion?

Throw in a Veteran innings eater to fill out the rotation. Maybe Overton? But he is soon to be 29 and I hope to be wrong but I think he is a time bomb and the smoke is about to explode. Maybe he will continue success and is a late bloomer. He will be 29 soon. But low k/9 guys usually don't fare well long term.

First off let's be serious. This Front Office is just waiting to trade Mahle and Castillo for a fist full of $100s and "realigning the budget". Any talk of them being here by opening day next year should be put on the backburner until they are actually here on Opening Day.

If Greene can't master another pitch I see Eric Gagne/Chapman in his future, closer who just blows away people in the 8th/9th inning with all gas.

I haven't seen the rest pitch because I've had to "realign my entertainment to meet my time restraints" and have only seen parts of 2 games thus far.