Graham Ashcraft

[TRF]

I have been hearing this for 3 months. What isn’t theoretical about you saying he could have gave up six runs? This whole thread is eventually this will happen. Again stick to the results. If you think his ceiling is higher we pretty much agree on that and misunderstood one of your posts. As I said what other pitchers have pitched sense June and gave up no more than three runs? That is giving them a chance to win every game he pitches in. That is impressive to me, but people keep talking in theoretically. What about I do that? He could find a strike out pitch he has the stuff. He is a bb pitcher so his hrs are likely to come down and don’t forget the ballpark he pitches in so his hr is overinflated. Is he a dominant number one now? No. He is a solid two imo. I just find it weak that people are talking theoretically about a guy failing when he has pitched extremely well. Anyone who has watched him pitch can see the stuff.

I've watched him pitch.

It's late. Too late for me to show you he allows too many baserunners. Too late to show his hr/9 is over 1. Too late to explain, again, that it isn't theoretical when it comes to hr rate. If it is high, that is bad.


I'll circle around tomorrow.

Btw, all that stated, he's one of my favorite pitchers on the team.

[Rdirtypirates]

I've watched him pitch.

It's late. Too late for me to show you he allows too many baserunners. Too late to show his hr/9 is over 1. Too late to explain, again, that it isn't theoretical when it comes to hr rate. If it is high, that is bad.


I'll circle around tomorrow.

Btw, all that stated, he's one of my favorite pitchers on the team.

Nope no need to circle around. I understand what you are saying, but it is theoretically until it actually happens. Maybe take an early day and watch him pitch and we can discuss what he actually does. How his stuff looks and maybe you kind find that list I have mentioned or say what I already know. Have a good night and as you can tell he is definitely one of my favorites as well.

[WrongVerb]

You know what? I like watching Ashcraft pitch, and I'm glad he's on the Reds.

[Rdirtypirates]

You know what? I like watching Ashcraft pitch, and I'm glad he's on the Reds.

Haven’t seen you post in a while glad you are still around. Smart man for giving up the political section. Hope all is well and I love watching him pitch as well as Lodolo when healthy and Greene. The results might not always be there, but this is an enjoyable team imo. Take care.

[SteelSD]

Nope no need to circle around. I understand what you are saying, but it is theoretically until it actually happens. Maybe take an early day and watch him pitch and we can discuss what he actually does. How his stuff looks and maybe you kind find that list I have mentioned or say what I already know. Have a good night and as you can tell he is definitely one of my favorites as well.

Here are the MLB ERA qualifiers from 2014 to 2023 who put up real-life (read: NOT THEORETICAL) performances with peripherals right around Ashcraft's career rates:

Criteria: BB/9 >/=2.50, HR/9 >/=1.20, K/9 <7.00 and >6.00

Name	                Team	W	L	G	GS	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	LOB%	GB%	HR/FB	ERA	FIP
Jeremy Hellickson	5 Tms	37	44	129	129	691.0	6.77	2.55	1.41	0.274	0.70	0.40	0.13	4.48	4.66
Jason Vargas	        3 Tms	48	41	123	123	662.1	6.89	2.81	1.22	0.290	0.74	0.39	0.11	4.24	4.44
Miguel González  	3 Tms	32	45	105	105	603.2	6.23	2.94	1.27	0.290	0.74	0.38	0.11	4.29	4.71
Kyle Freeland	          COL	54	65	176	176	963.0	6.75	3.01	1.26	0.307	0.74	0.46	0.13	4.41	4.63
R.A. Dickey	       2 Tms	45	48	127	127	789.1	6.40	3.02	1.20	0.272	0.73	0.43	0.12	4.06	4.61
Matt Wisler	       4 Tms	16	23	66	66	311.1	6.71	3.04	1.33	0.282	0.73	0.35	0.11	4.54	4.66
Chris Flexen	       3 Tms	25	28	74	74	397.2	6.31	3.12	1.36	0.304	0.73	0.39	0.12	4.80	4.85
Wily Peralta	       2 Tms	37	39	102	102	569.1	6.31	3.13	1.20	0.305	0.75	0.51	0.15	4.16	4.62
Matt Cain	         SFG	11	30	66	66	351.0	6.36	3.21	1.44	0.307	0.70	0.41	0.14	5.10	4.98
John Danks	         CHW	18	30	66	66	393.2	6.15	3.22	1.23	0.300	0.69	0.40	0.11	4.87	4.72
José Ureña	       3 Tms	36	62	138	138	726.2	6.08	3.39	1.24	0.287	0.70	0.48	0.14	4.82	4.91
Chris Young	       2 Tms	21	23	62	62	324.2	6.51	3.47	1.89	0.246	0.80	0.25	0.12	4.35	5.59
Chris Tillman	         BAL	42	35	121	121	664.1	6.52	3.54	1.21	0.292	0.71	0.41	0.12	4.78	4.70

Just so you know, that's almost 7,500 combined Innings Pitched with peripherals approximating what Ashcraft has done thus far. Real performance over a large sample size. You won't find guys in that group that go on to become consistent TOR starters after putting up those peripheral rates, and they're most certainly not TOR starters while putting up those rates. Oh, you'll find a smattering of positive, a bunch of fail, some MLB exits, and at least a couple of starter-to-reliever conversions. But the reality is that those kind of peripherals do not produce the kind of results we'd need to see to tag a guy as a TOR starter. For that to happen, pitchers with that profile would have had to produce completely different (read: much better) peripherals, which is what you're suggesting is going to happen to Ashcraft. The problem is that you're not producing a convincing argument for that. Instead, you have a faith-based position loaded with recency bias (among other types), that also doesn't consider how Ashcraft's recent results have been produced.

[TRF]

5 HR allowed in his last three starts is not a #1. Only gave up one run, and that's great. He's creeping that K/9 northward. That's great too. But he has got to get a handle on the HR's. He's still a #3 right now, but his ceiling will be determined by that HR rate.

[Rdirtypirates]

5 HR allowed in his last three starts is not a #1. Only gave up one run, and that's great. He's creeping that K/9 northward. That's great too. But he has got to get a handle on the HR's. He's still a #3 right now, but his ceiling will be determined by that HR rate.

I think maybe we are arguing past each other and actually agree. I just don’t agree with theoretical stats as a way to tear down a player and this isn’t directed at you specifically. No he is not a number one now I think two you say three I can back down and agree to three. I thought you were putting his ceiling at a three, which you stated you weren’t. Anyone who says his ceiling is a three and can’t improve after 30 something starts, I don’t know what to say. Go look at most top pitchers and look at their first two years. His stuff alone makes his ceiling a one imo, but as you said he is not their yet. I think we both like him and want him to improve to his full potential.

[TRF]

I can be done arguing. gracias.

[OldFashionedRed]

5 HR allowed in his last three starts is not a #1. Only gave up one run, and that's great. He's creeping that K/9 northward. That's great too. But he has got to get a handle on the HR's. He's still a #3 right now, but his ceiling will be determined by that HR rate.

Graham doesn't have that high of a ceiling, IMO, based on what he's done so far. #3 or #4 starter.

Average WHIP
Below Average K rate
Average to Below Average BB rate
Below Average to Average H rate

That's based on his season stats and googling what a good rate is for each category.

[TRF]

uh uh. I'm out of this one.

[Red Oak]

I went out and did some work in my yard after the Duarte gave up that homerun...did Ashcraft get hurt?

[Tom Servo]

I don't see nor need Ashcraft as a TOR guy, I'll be happy if he's a competent #4-5 guy.

[westofyou]

I don't see nor need Ashcraft as a TOR guy, I'll be happy if he's a competent #4-5 guy.

Google that and get back to us on a baseline

[Ron Madden]

Ashcraft on IL another blow to the rotation

As the Reds’ pitching staff deals with a COVID-19 outbreak, it will also have to work without Graham Ashcraft, who landed on the injured list on Saturday with a stress reaction in his right big toe. Ashcraft left his start in Game 1 of Friday’s doubleheader after five-plus innings in part due to the pain in the toe.

“We're still talking through all the information that [team doctors] have,” manager David Bell said. “There's some optimism about him pitching again for us this season, which is great. I mean, there's not that much time left.”

Ashcraft’s injury is the latest blow to a Reds rotation that has been hit especially hard over the past two weeks.

Nick Lodolo has been on the 60-day IL since June 3 with a left tibia stress reaction. He was expected to return in August or September, but he suffered a setback in late August and won’t pitch again in 2023.

Just a week after Lodolo’s setback, starters Hunter Greene and Ben Lively tested positive for COVID-19, as did reliever Fernando Cruz. On Saturday, Brandon Williamson joined them as the fourth player to land on the COVID-19 related injured list.

Continue Reading Here:
https://www.mlb.com/reds/news/graham...ress-reactionO