Graham Ashcraft

[Falls City Beer]

I doubt Ashcraft lost everything since he was anointed the staff ace and all star representative six or seven pages ago in this very thread.

Something is wrong, I wouldn’t put any deadlines on it, just do a thorough analysis and work with him. Some thought he looked better yesterday afternoon before getting hit with the come backer.

Calling him an ace after like 100 MLB innings is the height of stupidity. I wouldn’t consider that as anything other than just goofy homerism. He’s always been by far the least among the three big names mentioned in this new crop of starters (Greene being the clearest, best-pedigreed starter, Lodolo, excellent stuff, health concerns). In a dead season, sure you give him more time to work it out and see if he can’t develop a clear, effective third pitch. But you have to weigh it against Ashcraft’s tolerance for getting his head kicked in start after start. At some point he’ll develop pitching PTSD he may not recover from. I’d send him down and give him a break for a few starts. It’s probably best just to adjust our expectations down for the guy going forward. He’s not young, he doesn’t have an extraordinary arsenal, but he could be a nice back end guy to have around so no need to demote him to the pen.

[Mitri]

No man, you can't sign off on being a 2-pitch pitcher as a starter. DJ has had over a year to work with this young man and still no third pitch? How does this confuse you? You take a shot at my posts lately. Ok, cool, idc. But your post right here is awful. Name me one successful starting pitcher ever who just had 2 pitches, and neither of those pitches were elite.

Again, Ashcraft didn't just come up. DJ has been working with him for over a year.

That’s not the point I’m trying to make. Ashcraft was the next guy up last year and he has been relatively successful in his tenure up until these last few starts. While some of the blame for Ashy’s failure to evolve may fall on DJ, our pitching coach is working with the 20 or so guys that he is provided with. Ashcraft is just one of those dudes.

I look at the bigger picture and see DJ making lemonade out of lemons for the most part. It’s up to the Reds to give him better ingredients if they want to elevate the staff.

[Red Oak]

I thought Ashcraft looked like he had figured out something before he got tagged with that comebacker.

[SunDeck]

I think what the Reds need from Ashcraft is 16-18 outs per game and 4 runs. This team profiles to win a lot of those games over the next few years and I am pretty optimistic with Greene, Lodolo, Ashcraft, Abbott.

[JCM11]

I think what the Reds need from Ashcraft is 16-18 outs per game and 4 runs. This team profiles to win a lot of those games over the next few years and I am pretty optimistic with Greene, Lodolo, Ashcraft, Abbott.

I'd be more optimistic with a solid veteran SP or two in that mix. There's no excuse for why the Reds can't add that with the $ and prospect capitol they have to spend this off season. Ashcraft may end up the odd man out if he doesn't get it together.

[mth123]

I think what the Reds need from Ashcraft is 16-18 outs per game and 4 runs. This team profiles to win a lot of those games over the next few years and I am pretty optimistic with Greene, Lodolo, Ashcraft, Abbott.

That's 4 runs in 5 innings. I hope the heck all the starters are better than that and if they aren't they should move on to the next guy. I know people make fun of the quality start stat, but that's the minimum I'd expect most of the time. Maybe 5 innings with 2 runs or less would be OK, but 6 and 3 are much better.

[madeirawood]

I think i know what is wrong with Ashcraft. He was pitching just fine until his grandmother died a few weeks ago. Instead of immediately taking a bereavement leave, he instead decided to make his next start. He was very emotional during the entire game. His pitching motion showed that. He toughed it out and threw a fine game. That's the good news. The bad news is that he lost his muscle memory during that emotional outing by changing his delivery. And that's really bad for an athlete. And it can take time to get it back again. And i think he will in the next few weeks.

[SunDeck]

That's 4 runs in 5 innings. I hope the heck all the starters are better than that and if they aren't they should move on to the next guy. I know people make fun of the quality start stat, but that's the minimum I'd expect most of the time. Maybe 5 innings with 2 runs or less would be OK, but 6 and 3 are much better.

I think 4 runs in 5 innings with this bullpen and the way this team battles offensively is a winning combination.

[Kc61]

That's 4 runs in 5 innings. I hope the heck all the starters are better than that and if they aren't they should move on to the next guy. I know people make fun of the quality start stat, but that's the minimum I'd expect most of the time. Maybe 5 innings with 2 runs or less would be OK, but 6 and 3 are much better.

Agree in principle. The trap is Reds (and fans) get comfortable with mediocre pitching because the offense is performing. That is not a formula for long term success. The pitching and defense have to stand on their own. And if experience is the guide, it must be proficient. We can all debate the exact level but I assure you - on the starting pitcher side - they currently aren’t close.

[Red Oak]

I think the fact that Ashcraft's velocity was back up in the high 90's and he was not walking guys was a good sign. He got his tits ripped with 3 dingers, but it was the Braves in his first live action in 15 days.

I'm curious to see his next couple of starts before I dismiss him as a good piece going forward.

[mth123]

I think the fact that Ashcraft's velocity was back up in the high 90's and he was not walking guys was a good sign. He got his tits ripped with 3 dingers, but it was the Braves in his first live action in 15 days.

I'm curious to see his next couple of starts before I dismiss him as a good piece going forward.

Can't dismiss anybody at this point, but that's 7 bad starts in a row. The team should be looking for an upgrade. If he rights the ship, great. They need upgrades in at least two other spots as well. They aren't going to end up with too much pitching.

[Kc61]

Ashcraft has attributes that make me want to keep working with him. His velocity was back, he threw 99. With that in his arsenal, his sinking stuff can be effective. Question is the best way to bring things together again. Keep starting him? Send him to AAA? Bullpen for awhile?

I guess they’ll keep trotting him out there and working behind the scenes. Ok with me, they don’t have replacements, but some of these outings are tough if you’re trying to win.

[Red Oak]

Can't dismiss anybody at this point, but that's 7 bad starts in a row. The team should be looking for an upgrade. If he rights the ship, great. They need upgrades in at least two other spots as well. They aren't going to end up with too much pitching.

I'm not saying they shouldn't be upgrading...but I thought he was looking good in the start where he got hit by the ball. Regardless of what he does next, I don't think it's feasible for them to trade for the amount of pitching they actually need, given the injuries.

I'd suggest that Lodolo's struggles are at least partly related to his injury ...but it's moot if he's not available til mid-august at best.

If the right deal or two manifests before the deadline as other teams start to sell, they could acquire some help, IMO.....otherwise there doesn't appear to be much at all out there that fits their needs vs what they'd be willing to trade.
It would be different if there was only one spot to fill, but it's not even close that, as you point out.

I know they don't want to rush guys down in the farm, but it might be their best option to throw some guys out there in the short term. It's a pickle.

[Red Oak]

Just another thought on Ashcraft and his slot:

If they can upgrade his slot, and I don't know who that is, and move him to the back of the rotation you essentially upgrade 2 slots, provided he improves his performance.

[Ky Fried Redleg]

Agree in principle. The trap is Reds (and fans) get comfortable with mediocre pitching because the offense is performing. That is not a formula for long term success. The pitching and defense have to stand on their own. And if experience is the guide, it must be proficient. We can all debate the exact level but I assure you - on the starting pitcher side - they currently aren’t close.

Your posts are essential reading because they are spot on. I hope Reds management reads and digests your stuff.