Graham Ashcraft

[Strikes Out Looking]

Ashcraft is so refreshing in that he appears to be a pitcher rather than just a thrower. The fact that he wants them to hit the ball so he can get quick outs is so novel in a time when we watch Tyler Mahle nibble and throw 100 pitches to get through 5 innings most of the time. Hopefully this is not a mirage and he can be a Red for a long time (Under new ownership that will not trade him at 4.5 years due to his "cost").

[M2]

Through four starts here's Ashcraft's advanced pitching line:

Line drive % - 18.1% (MLB average 23.6%)
Ground ball % - 59.7% (MLB average 42.9%)
Fly ball % - 16.7% (MLB average 25.7%)

Hard hit % - 34.7% (MLB average 38.9%)

That. Will. Work. If Ashcraft can keep that up, he should do that.

And, b/c I was curious - Kevin Brown's 19-year career percentages for LD/GB/FB were 18.4% - 57.9% - 17% so....yeah. That lines up. Brown for his career was a 6.6 K9 guy. Ashcraft currently just 4.4 K9 - he will need to get that up but that is something I figure he can given his stuff.

Thus endeth my wildly irresponsible comp discussion. I would delighted if Ashcraft had even half of Brown's career. Brown finished with 211 wins and 2397 Ks. He should prob be in the HoF. That Ashcraft's initial results track with Brown's career line is super interesting. Keep it up, Moonlight.

The other guy cut from that cloth who comes to mind is Brandon Webb. He was an 8th round pick (Ashcraft went in round 6). Webb had a 142 ERA+ (which is absurdly good) when his arm gave out. Won a Cy Young with two 2nd-place finishes too.

[redsfan9988]

The other guy cut from that cloth who comes to mind is Brandon Webb. He was an 8th round pick (Ashcraft went in round 6). Webb had a 142 ERA+ (which is absurdly good) when his arm gave out. Won a Cy Young with two 2nd-place finishes too.

I thought about the Webb comp too. He was a hard-thrower with a very heavy sinker. I don’t mind a Framber Valdez comp either.

[Ky Fried Redleg]

The other guy cut from that cloth who comes to mind is. He was an 8th round pick (Ashcraft went in round 6). Webb had a 142 ERA+ (which is absurdly good) when his arm gave out. Won a Cy Young with two 2nd-place finishes too.

Ashland, KY native and former UK Wildcat , Brandon Webb. That 142 ERA+ , I think, puts him in the top 20 of all major leaguers.

[Roy Tucker]

I’m as over the moon about Ashcraft as the next Reds fan and don’t want to rain on his parade. But let’s see what happens when the league has seen all his stuff and what he throws when. And the league adjusts and he has to adjust. That’s when we see how really good he will be.

[kaldaniels]

I’m as over the moon about Ashcraft as the next Reds fan and don’t want to rain on his parade. But let’s see what happens when the league has seen all his stuff and what he throws when. And the league adjusts and he has to adjust. That’s when we see how really good he will be.

I totally agree that we need to wait and see how the league adjusts.

But when I see him pounding the zone low at 98-100 it gives me all kinds of funny feelings.

[paulrichjr]

What he is doing is just so impressive. Some might look at his K rates and think he can't sustain what he is doing but quotes like this make me so happy.

Jake Hager led off the inning with a double, then went to third on a groundout. That’s when a flip switched with Ashcraft, who has plenty of ways to get strikeouts.

Facing leadoff man Daulton Varsho with the Diamondbacks’ first run of the series 90 feet away, Ashcraft threw three straight sliders to Varsho, the first for a called strike and the next two swinging.

Then, with two outs, he struck out Pain Smith on seven pitches, the final one a 98 mph sinker right on the inside corner for a called third strike.

Even with a nine-run lead, Ashcraft pumped his fist and yelled “let’s go!” With perhaps another word or two mixed in.

It didn’t mean the difference between winning and losing, but it was important to the rookie, who was making just his fourth big-league start. The Reds have won all four, and they’ve all been impressive. But Tuesday’s game was the best so far.

Not just because Ashcraft showed exactly what he’s capable of — his stuff hasn’t been in question since the Reds took him in the sixth round of the 2019 draft out of UAB — but also because of how he did it. How smoothly and effectively he was at sitting down Diamondbacks hitters.

“I saw the opportunity where they had a chance to score, and I wanted to shut the door down as fast as I could,” Ashcraft said. “So I was trying to get it to where I get swings-and-misses and get out of it.”

https://theathletic.com/3354769/2022...rolling-along/

Who taught this guy to pitch to contact but if you need to strike someone out do it? That is something you just don't see that much anymore.

[Tony Cloninger]

[QUOTE=Benihana;4429993]What about Scott Scudder, John Roper, Tim Pugh, Rob Bell, Brian Reith and Brandon Claussen?



Ha ha ha. I said good pitchers. Claussen was a Yankee draft as well.

[membengal]

The other guy cut from that cloth who comes to mind is Brandon Webb. He was an 8th round pick (Ashcraft went in round 6). Webb had a 142 ERA+ (which is absurdly good) when his arm gave out. Won a Cy Young with two 2nd-place finishes too.

(nods in approval of that comp)

- - - Updated - - -

I’m as over the moon about Ashcraft as the next Reds fan and don’t want to rain on his parade. But let’s see what happens when the league has seen all his stuff and what he throws when. And the league adjusts and he has to adjust. That’s when we see how really good he will be.

of course it is premature. But no less interesting to play with. Ashcraft's "stuff" is unique. There are not a lot of previous pitchers that he shares a profile with in that regard. Saying his stuff is like Brown's or Webb's isn't predicting a career like either.

[membengal]

I know who I am not gonna comp Mike Minor to...

[Ky Fried Redleg]

I know who I am not gonna comp Mike Minor to...

Definitely. Minor is the antithesis of the Ashcrafter.

[redsfan9988]

Definitely. Minor is the antithesis of the Ashcrafter.

Minor pounds the zone too… he just does so with hanging 82mph change-ups…

[RedsManRick]

Through four starts here's Ashcraft's advanced pitching line:

Line drive % - 18.1% (MLB average 23.6%)
Ground ball % - 59.7% (MLB average 42.9%)
Fly ball % - 16.7% (MLB average 25.7%)

Hard hit % - 34.7% (MLB average 38.9%)

That. Will. Work. If Ashcraft can keep that up, he should do that.

And, b/c I was curious - Kevin Brown's 19-year career percentages for LD/GB/FB were 18.4% - 57.9% - 17% so....yeah. That lines up. Brown for his career was a 6.6 K9 guy. Ashcraft currently just 4.4 K9 - he will need to get that up but that is something I figure he can given his stuff.

Thus endeth my wildly irresponsible comp discussion. I would delighted if Ashcraft had even half of Brown's career. Brown finished with 211 wins and 2397 Ks. He should prob be in the HoF. That Ashcraft's initial results track with Brown's career line is super interesting. Keep it up, Moonlight.

Pretty good summary. Too many balls in play to be dominant long term. But if that's the type of contact you do allow, that'll play all day.

Not shown here, Ahscraft has put up an elite 5.5% walk rate (less than half of what he put up in AAA). When you walk fewer than 2 per 9, that gives you a LOT more latitude. Just ask, say, Kevin Brown.....

[Wayne Krivsky]

Pretty good summary. Way too many balls in play to be dominant long term. But if that's the type of contact you do allow, that'll play all day.

Not shown here, Ahscraft has put up an elite 5.5% walk rate (less than half of what he put up in AAA). When you walk fewer than 2 per 9, that gives you a LOT more latitude. Just ask, say, Kevin Brown.....

Yes and no. I agree 1000% that we should expect some regression from Ashcraft, as you said his walk rate is extremely low right now. With that said his K% is also about half of what it was in AAA. My guess is that over time those two start to even out somewhere between their current rates and AAA numbers, and all is OK.

My bigger concern with Ashcraft is his secondary pitches. The guy has always had two plus pitches in the fastball and slider. The changeup has never been that good, and I think he is still only using it about 1 or 2 times per game. Once he goes around the league a second and third time will the FB/Breaking pitch be enough to shut teams down? Now the interesting piece is the guy throws a couple of different fastballs in a really good sinker and a pretty good cutter. Are those three offerings different enough to keep MLB hitters honest three times through the order now that there is an extended scouting report on the guy, and hitters have had first hand looks?

My guess is as long as he can keep getting ground balls at such a high rate he will be fine, and probably pencils in as a nice #3 starter who shows occasional ace flashes. If the walks increase along with the fly balls, especially in GABP it's still a real possibility that we are having the debate about sending him to the bullpen to be a high leverage piece on the backend of games.

[Big Klu]

It is exciting to see them developing better starters that have great potential/tools to succeed. Hopefully not the Mo Sanford. Brett Tomko. Curt Lyons results.

In the about 50 years I have been following this team they have traded away more pitching then they have developed for not much of anything back. All of them either pitched for them or were in AAA.

Milt Wilcox
Joaquin Andujar
Greg Corbett
Shane Rawley. At least they got Dave Collins for him.
Jay Howell
Charlie Liebrandt
Bill Dawley
Jeff Montgomery

It’s been so bad in the last 20 years that they don’t even develop anyone good enough to give up on

Should Mike Caldwell be on that list, too?