Rece Hinds

[JCM11]

Coming into the year he was the prospect outside the top 5 that I was most interested in for 2022. After a miserable April Hinds is on an absolute tear in May with a .390 .478 .693 .1173 line to bring his season OPS up to .850. Even more impressive is the near 1 to 2 BB/SO ratio at 9 to 20 in the month of May. I was intrigued when I saw he showed up to camp looking like Giancarlo Stanton's younger brother, and now the hard work seems to be paying off on the field.

It'll be interesting to see if this turnaround can last over the remainder of the season. Hinds is still only 21, and has as much power as anyone in the Reds organization.

[mth123]

Coming into the year he was the prospect outside the top 5 that I was most interested in for 2022. After a miserable April Hinds is on an absolute tear in May with a .390 .478 .693 .1173 line to bring his season OPS up to .850. Even more impressive is the near 1 to 2 BB/SO ratio at 9 to 20 in the month of May. I was intrigued when I saw he showed up to camp looking like Giancarlo Stanton's younger brother, and now the hard work seems to be paying off on the field.

It'll be interesting to see if this turnaround can last over the remainder of the season. Hinds is still only 21, and has as much power as anyone in the Reds organization.

I get a Shed Long vibe from this guy. When the Reds start trading, he's the kind of guy I'd throw in a deal for a more highly rated prospect.

[RedTeamGo!]

I get a Shed Long vibe from this guy. When the Reds start trading, he's the kind of guy I'd throw in a deal for a more highly rated prospect.

I agree on the sentiment but he’s nothing like Shed Long.

Shed Long was a little guy that was a Tommy Try Hard. In the genetics department he was given chicken poop and he made chicken salad out of it.

Rece Hinds is a monster with god given tools a player like Shed Long would have sold his soul for.

With that said, who would trade a more highly rated prospect for a lower rated prospect? When was the last time that even happened? You trade prospects for vets and vice versa usually. If the Reds try to compete next year Hinds is the first player I would have on the block to trade for some quality OFs or a solid MLB SP.

With all THAT said, I’m also not so sure you don’t have just hang on to Hinds and see if you win the lottery with him. If Hinds hits his ceiling you’re looking at one of the best power hitters in MLB. If Shed Long hit his ceiling you’re looking at a weak hitting utility infielder.

[mth123]

I agree on the sentiment but he’s nothing like Shed Long.

Shed Long was a little guy that was a Tommy Try Hard. In the genetics department he was given chicken poop and he made chicken salad out of it.

Rece Hinds is a monster with god given tools a player like Shed Long would have sold his soul for.

With that said, who would trade a more highly rated prospect for a lower rated prospect? When was the last time that even happened? You trade prospects for vets and vice versa usually. If the Reds try to compete next year Hinds is the first player I would have on the block to trade for some quality OFs or a solid MLB SP.

With all THAT said, I’m also not so sure you don’t have just hang on to Hinds and see if you win the lottery with him. If Hinds hits his ceiling you’re looking at one of the best power hitters in MLB. If Shed Long hit his ceiling you’re looking at a weak hitting utility infielder.

No I mean, when they start dealing Mahle or Naquin or Whoever, the deal I'd make is something like Mahle, Hinds and Williamson for a true high end prospect. Some team that wants immediate help but needs more to deal a top guy.

[RED VAN HOT]

Coming into the year he was the prospect outside the top 5 that I was most interested in for 2022. After a miserable April Hinds is on an absolute tear in May with a .390 .478 .693 .1173 line to bring his season OPS up to .850. Even more impressive is the near 1 to 2 BB/SO ratio at 9 to 20 in the month of May. I was intrigued when I saw he showed up to camp looking like Giancarlo Stanton's younger brother, and now the hard work seems to be paying off on the field.

It'll be interesting to see if this turnaround can last over the remainder of the season. Hinds is still only 21, and has as much power as anyone in the Reds organization.

His BABIP is nearly twice what it was in April. The most positive thing is that he has reduced his K rate from 50% in April to 29% in May. Some of the BABIP increase in May is undoubtedly luck. That said, when you are making more frequent, hard contact, the BABIP should go up. Encouraging signs.

[RedTeamGo!]

No I mean, when they start dealing Mahle or Naquin or Whoever, the deal I'd make is something like Mahle, Hinds and Williamson for a true high end prospect. Some team that wants immediate help but needs more to deal a top guy.

That’s a huge package. Are you talking like top 5 prospect in baseball?

[Benihana]

Yeah if I were to compare Hinds to any Reds prospect who never quite panned out but could fetch a valuable piece it would be someone like Wily Mo Peña, not Shed. Difference here is Hinds has been better than Wily Mo was at 20 and 21, and doesn’t have that silly contract that requires him to stick in the bigs next year. He may yet become what Wily Mo might’ve been had he not had to have been rushed.

Love seeing this tear he’s on, he’s a guy I’ve always been excited about.

[mth123]

Yes. somebody in that range. The guys on the fringes of the top 100 and below are just adding more suspects. I have no interest in adding more secondary prospects for the Reds key pieces, so if the reds need to add a couple of their own secondary (or third or fourth level) prospects to get a better one, then I'd prefer that route...

This team needs a future star. Role players can be added for cheap every winter.

[mth123]

Yeah if I were to compare Hinds to any Reds prospect who never quite panned out but could fetch a valuable piece it would be someone like Wily Mo Peña, not Shed. Difference here is Hinds has been better than Wily Mo was at 20 and 21, and doesn’t have that silly contract that requires him to stick in the bigs next year. He may yet become what Wily Mo might’ve been had he not had to have been rushed.

Love seeing this tear he’s on, he’s a guy I’ve always been excited about.

The Shed long vibes I get are that he's a guy who is pure bat and doesn't really have a position he can adequately play and the bat itself is pretty suspect as projecting it to the big leagues.

[Bourgeois Zee]

He'll grow into a good OF, I suspect. Speed is well above average now, and his arm is a cannon. He needs game reps to be more successful.

[Mitri]

The Shed long vibes I get are that he's a guy who is pure bat and doesn't really have a position he can adequately play and the bat itself is pretty suspect as projecting it to the big leagues.

Have you seen his OF defense in action? Just curious how it looks.

Most reports I've read say that he could be solid in RF, which leads me to believe he'd be more than adequate in LF too.

I get what you are saying about Shed, it's an interesting comparison. I think Hinds has a real hit tool with big power potential. It plays in a corner OF slot if it pans out, maybe only as a platoon guy but it's worth hanging onto. Shed's power began to vanish as he moved up, he got overpowered and he defense was rough. Hinds actually fits the corner OF profile well, we just need to be patient.

[Bourgeois Zee]

Hinds gives me Glen Braggs vibes.

A bit more pop, a bit less contact-- but the body type, arm, and speed all fit. (As does the swing.)

[mth123]

Have you seen his OF defense in action? Just curious how it looks.

Most reports I've read say that he could be solid in RF, which leads me to believe he'd be more than adequate in LF too.

I get what you are saying about Shed, it's an interesting comparison. I think Hinds has a real hit tool with big power potential. It plays in a corner OF slot if it pans out, maybe only as a platoon guy but it's worth hanging onto. Shed's power began to vanish as he moved up, he got overpowered and he defense was rough. Hinds actually fits the corner OF profile well, we just need to be patient.

People were saying the same about Shed. The Reds got Sonny Gray for him. Yet when he reached the big leagues, he couldn't hit. Its another example of why I'd be dealing these secondary and third level prospects. Most of them don't work out. The Reds have been dealing quality for quantity. The result is a roster with a bunch of platoon guys, utility IF, 4th OF and mop-up pitchers. I'd like to see them go the other way. When they start dealing guys, throw in a couple of these secondary prospects in the deal and get a somebody who projects as a solid every day player with all star potential.

Lets take Tyler Mahle as an example. When the Reds deal him, I expect the return to be a prospect in the 80 to 150 range as the main piece and a lotto ticket or two. One may be ranked as the 25th to 30th prospect on some teams list and the other a pure lotto guy with one interesting skill or somebody who was more highly thought of once upon a time trying to bounce back from a major career altering injury or multiple seasons of failure. That likely results in more 4th OFers or iffy relievers at the major league level when the dust settles. I say screw that. When they trade Mahle, throw in a couple of their own interesting prospects with one or two skills and a bunch of flaws and get a prospect who projects to wind up a much better player in the big leagues. (There is still a lot of risk that player could bust as well).

The reds can find all the 4th and 5th OF types, back-up IF, iffy relievers and back-of-the-rotation punching bags they want to fill out their roster from the minor league free agent pool and guys who fell through the major league FA cracks each year just as cheaply as they can by getting them from their system. What they can't acquire as easily without eating up their resources is the impact guys. So instead of dealing their prime trade guys for a bunch of secondary prospects, add our own secondary prospects to the deal and get somebody better. I'd imagine if the Reds added Hinds and Williamson to a package with Mahle to a team looking to fill a hole in the rotation, they could get an impact guy in return. They could probably replace what Hinds and Williamson will eventually become from a large pool of similarly flawed players available every year for the taking.

[HokieRed]

People were saying the same about Shed. The Reds got Sonny Gray for him. Yet when he reached the big leagues, he couldn't hit. Its another example of why I'd be dealing these secondary and third level prospects. Most of them don't work out. The Reds have been dealing quality for quantity. The result is a roster with a bunch of platoon guys, utility IF, 4th OF and mop-up pitchers. I'd like to see them go the other way. When they start dealing guys, throw in a couple of these secondary prospects in the deal and get a somebody who projects as a solid every day player with all star potential.

Lets take Tyler Mahle as an example. When the Reds deal him, I expect the return to be a prospect in the 80 to 150 range as the main piece and a lotto ticket or two. One may be ranked as the 25th to 30th prospect on some teams list and the other a pure lotto guy with one interesting skill or somebody who was more highly thought of once upon a time trying to bounce back from a major career altering injury or multiple seasons of failure. That likely results in more 4th OFers or iffy relievers at the major league level when the dust settles. I say screw that. When they trade Mahle, throw in a couple of their own interesting prospects with one or two skills and a bunch of flaws and get a prospect who projects to wind up a much better player in the big leagues. (There is still a lot of risk that player could bust as well).

The reds can find all the 4th and 5th OF types, back-up IF, iffy relievers and back-of-the-rotation punching bags they want to fill out their roster from the minor league free agent pool and guys who fell through the major league FA cracks each year just as cheaply as they can by getting them from their system. What they can't acquire as easily without eating up their resources is the impact guys. So instead of dealing their prime trade guys for a bunch of secondary prospects, add our own secondary prospects to the deal and get somebody better. I'd imagine if the Reds added Hinds and Williamson to a package with Mahle to a team looking to fill a hole in the rotation, they could get an impact guy in return. They could probably replace what Hinds and Williamson will eventually become from a large pool of similarly flawed players available every year for the taking.

Problem is Mahle's not that good and other guys also know what you're saying here about impact guys. They're not trading you an impact guy for a couple of guys you think can be replaced by other fungible assets. And outside of his likely career year last year, Mahle's not really been terribly productive. I'm willing to predict RZ is going to be outraged and underwhelmed by the return. I think he's actually more valuable to the team as a part of the rotation next year than he is as trade commodity.

[Mitri]

I don’t think anyone was saying this about Shed.

I think most were just along for the ride: undersized, converted catcher with a chip on shoulder, grinding his way to the bigs.

I do think that eventually the Reds will have to part with a number of these guys in A/A+/AA, but I’m not sure many teams are giving up top-20 prospects for Mahle and Rece Hinds.