Rece Hinds

[mth123]

Problem is Mahle's not that good and other guys also know what you're saying here about impact guys. They're not trading you an impact guy for a couple of guys you think can be replaced by other fungible assets. And outside of his likely career year last year, Mahle's not really been terribly productive. I'm willing to predict RZ is going to be outraged and underwhelmed by the return. I think he's actually more valuable to the team as a part of the rotation next year than he is as trade commodity.

its just an example. But I wouldn't deal Mahle for more Rece Hinds types. I think he's more valuable filling a role in the rotation and letting him walk than just acquiring more suspects. Guys who rank as the 9th or 10th best prospect in a system are more in the 300th best overall range (higher or lower depending on the system) and the probability of that becoming anything more than an interchangeable part is very low. Why deal for interchangeable parts? You can get those whenever you want them.

[RedTeamGo!]

its just an example. But I wouldn't deal Mahle for more Rece Hinds types. I think he's more valuable filling a role in the rotation and letting him walk than just acquiring more suspects. Guys who rank as the 9th or 10th best prospect in a system are more in the 300th best overall range (higher or lower depending on the system) and the probability of that becoming anything more than an interchangeable part is very low. Why deal for interchangeable parts? You can get those whenever you want them.

The top 100 lists are just lists compiled by random journalists. It’s nice to see your prospects show up on them, but they don’t mean everything. Actual scouts don’t care at all about them. Also, they are fluid. Hinds is young and is at A+. If he keeps up what he is doing right now and finishes season with an .850-.900 OPS showing a solid walk rate and hitting tanks he’s going to be a top 100 prospect.

[HokieRed]

its just an example. But I wouldn't deal Mahle for more Rece Hinds types. I think he's more valuable filling a role in the rotation and letting him walk than just acquiring more suspects. Guys who rank as the 9th or 10th best prospect in a system are more in the 300th best overall range (higher or lower depending on the system) and the probability of that becoming anything more than an interchangeable part is very low. Why deal for interchangeable parts? You can get those whenever you want them.

Absolutely. But in the Seattle trade, I don't think we traded for interchangeble parts. I think we moved a guy we weren't going to sign past next year (and on this Krall may have been prescient), especially for 20 million a year, and another guy who is really pretty replaceable, as we're seeing this year. And I think we got three major league arms--if they stay uninjured and work out etc. Clearly those are the risks. But if the team is bad this year, it's not because we traded Winker and Suarez.

[Bourgeois Zee]

But if the team is bad this year, it's not because we traded Winker and Suarez.

The team is bad this year in part because the Reds traded Suarez and Winker.

[JCM11]

Yes. somebody in that range. The guys on the fringes of the top 100 and below are just adding more suspects. I have no interest in adding more secondary prospects for the Reds key pieces, so if the reds need to add a couple of their own secondary (or third or fourth level) prospects to get a better one, then I'd prefer that route...

This team needs a future star. Role players can be added for cheap every winter.

Tyler Stephenson was a fringe top 100 prospect not that long ago and Senzel was a consensus top 10 can't miss guy. There's more to prospect evaluation than looking at where they're ranked in a top 100 list.

[lollipopcurve]

Hinds has never had an extended period of good health, which has limited his ability to fully learn and adjust to the pitching at his level. I am encouraged by the way he is coming on at Dayton. He's been healthy and his numbers are really shooting up. This is a guy who out of high school was often forecast in the top 10 players in his draft class. He has some very big tools and he is a plus athlete. I'd be holding onto him (and all other high ceiling guys) through this trade deadline.

And yes, prospect lists are way overrated. They're window shopping at best.

[HokieRed]

The team is bad this year in part because the Reds traded Suarez and Winker.

We've more than adequately replaced their production. Team was pretty bad, but lucky, last year.

[krazzy]

Williamson is a too 100 prospect

[Bourgeois Zee]

We've more than adequately replaced their production. Team was pretty bad, but lucky, last year.

Nah. They were good last year, and they've not adequately replaced either player's value.

[JCM11]

Nah. They were good last year, and they've not adequately replaced either player's value.

Well since the thread has been sidetracked by another Seattle trade discussion I may as well add to it. Suarez and Winker combined for a 2.0 WAR last year and have combined for a 0.4 WAR so far this year. It's not like we're replacing Trout and Otani here. The Reds have been bad because they've gotten no production from the best two hitters on the team(Votto and India),had no SP depth when Castillo and Minor went down, and once again filled the bullpen with question marks. Lorenzen and Gray would have been far more valuable to this years team than Winker and Suarez.

[HokieRed]

Nah. They were good last year, and they've not adequately replaced either player's value.

They finished 7 games out of the wild card spot and got an absolutely miraculous year out of their best player--who, love him as much as you want, was 37 and is now 38--and they got 11 bWar out of Mahle and a 34 year old journeyman lefthander. Those are largely unrepeatable results. Those outliers made them a marginally decent team, covered over their real weaknesses.

[Bourgeois Zee]

They finished 7 games out of the wild card spot and got an absolutely miraculous year out of their best player--who, love him as much as you want, was 37 and is now 38--and they got 11 bWar out of Mahle and a 34 year old journeyman lefthander. Those are largely unrepeatable results. Those outliers made them a marginally decent team, covered over their real weaknesses.

They also had historically good players struggle to hit their weight.

Good years and bad ones happen.

The team overall had exceptional pitching, very good hitting, a below average bullpen, and largely poor defense.

But they were good enough-- in a bad division-- to compete if ownership had ponied up the cash. Instead, ownership decided not to do that; they chose to deal away two of their best players for peanuts and prospects, not re-sign their actual best player, and bottom out. Because Red ownership sucks.

They had a window and closed it on themselves.

[HokieRed]

They also had historically good players struggle to hit their weight.

Good years and bad ones happen.

The team overall had exceptional pitching, very good hitting, a below average bullpen, and largely poor defense.

But they were good enough-- in a bad division-- to compete if ownership had ponied up the cash. Instead, ownership decided not to do that; they chose to deal away two of their best players for peanuts and prospects, not re-sign their actual best player, and bottom out. Because Red ownership sucks.

They had a window and closed it on themselves.

Have you looked at what those great players are doing this year? Drury together with Pham have more bWar than Suarez and Winker; giving up Barnhart at 7.5 million bucks for Santana looks like a complete hosing of the Tigers; Miley's barely pitched; Gray didn't pitch for quite a while and now seems injured again; even Castellanos has not been earth-shattering. And some of our non-productive players continue so: Shogo, for example. And others. Votto looks more like a 38 year old player, great as he is (and I think he continues to be a wonderful player who has earned every dollar of his contract). I'm not defending the FO, just saying the narrative that they were good and just needed to keep in place the roster they had last year and add a part or two is just not, IMO, defensible.

[Bourgeois Zee]

Have you looked at what those great players are doing this year? Drury together with Pham have more bWar than Suarez and Winker; giving up Barnhart at 7.5 million bucks for Santana looks like a complete hosing of the Tigers; Miley's barely pitched; Gray didn't pitch for quite a while and now seems injured again; even Castellanos has not been earth-shattering. And some of our non-productive players continue so: Shogo, for example. And others. Votto looks more like a 38 year old player, great as he is (and I think he continues to be a wonderful player who has earned every dollar of his contract). I'm not defending the FO, just saying the narrative that they were good and just needed to keep in place the roster they had last year and add a part or two is just not, IMO, defensible.

You can't determine how successful those players might have been with Cincinnati by what they're doing in their new locales.

The Reds let go of four offensive starters and two starting pitchers. Among that group were two current All-Stars, two former All-Stars, and a Gold Glove winner.

That's a ton of value leaving for... Jake Fraley.

[HokieRed]

You can't determine how successful those players might have been with Cincinnati by what they're doing in their new locales.

The Reds let go of four offensive starters and two starting pitchers. Among that group were two current All-Stars, two former All-Stars, and a Gold Glove winner.

That's a ton of value leaving for... Jake Fraley.

I don't think the Seattle trade had much if anything to do with Jake Fraley.