Nick Krall: Aug.2nd Trade Deadline

[Ron Madden]

Key pieces lifting Reds, building trade value

Ever since the Reds began their ownership-mandated roster teardown ahead of struggling to a 3-22 record to start the season, they have been viewed as a club primed to make more moves ahead of the Trade Deadline.

The deadline is Aug. 2, and general manager Nick Krall has already been fielding and making calls.

“One way or another, we’ll talk to everybody," Krall said. "You’re going to see where everybody is and see what matches up and see what makes the most sense, and go from there.”

Especially in a thin market for starting pitching, few starting pitchers will likely draw as much interest as Reds starters Luis Castillo and Tyler Mahle. Among position players, third baseman Brandon Drury is having a breakout season and could also be an interesting trade chip.

The Reds’ rotation already has rookies Hunter Greene and Graham Ashcraft, and Nick Lodolo could return from a back injury at the end of the month. It added another prospect in the spring when the Reds acquired lefty prospect Brandon Williamson from the Mariners in the Jesse Winker-Eugenio Suárez trade. Williamson is currently at Double-A Chattanooga, along with another coveted lefty prospect in Andrew Abbott.

On the other hand, Cincinnati lacks Major League-ready talent for its lineup at Triple-A Louisville.

"It’s a systematic process," Krall said. "We’ll start having conversations about what makes the most sense for everybody and everybody’s club. Sometimes you call, sometimes they call you. I think it’s more of 'let’s figure out where everybody is,’ so that you know the lay of the land.”

After the club moved Winker, Suárez, Amir Garrett and Sonny Gray in March, Krall was not interested in dealing Castillo or Mahle.

But with so few viable starting pitchers on the market, a big offer from a contending club in need of arms could likely be enticing.

“I think we’re reassessing everything right now," Krall said. "We’re trying to figure out what makes the most sense for our roster -- short and long term.”

story here:
https://www.mlb.com/reds/news/luis-c...gainst-d-backs

[OldFashionedRed]

Here's my fantasy starting lineup:

Trade:
Mahle
Castillo
Gutierrez

Starters:
Greene
Ashcraft
Overton
Lodolo
HELP

Bullpen:
HELP
Diaz
Detwiler
Cessa

Lineup:
C Stephenson
1B HELP
2B India
SS Farmer
3B Drury
RF Pham
CF HELP
LF Almora
DH Votto

Bench
Moustakas (IF)
Naquin (OF)
Naquin (OF)
Aquino (OF)
Friedl (OF)
Reynolds (IF)
Lopez (IF)

I'm not ready to give up on Aquino. Lots of power, has speed, is a very good right fielder. The Reds need to get him help. Just my two cents.

[MikeS21]

I would not hesitate to trade Castillo and Mahle if I believed for a moment that Krall would get back good, young, controllable talent. But his track record leads me to believe that the return on those guys will be extremely underwhelming. IMO, the Reds FO doesn’t have anyone who can evaluate talent well enough to prevent getting fleeced in trades. Krall certainly can’t, nor do any of the other advisers who are supposed to be advising him.

I shudder when I consider the trade deadline.

[WrongVerb]

I would not hesitate to trade Castillo and Mahle if I believed for a moment that Krall would get back good, young, controllable talent. But his track record leads me to believe that the return on those guys will be extremely underwhelming. IMO, the Reds FO doesn’t have anyone who can evaluate talent well enough to prevent getting fleeced in trades. Krall certainly can’t, nor do any of the other advisers who are supposed to be advising him.

I shudder when I consider the trade deadline.

Disagree. There's a change in philosophy from before. Targets now are high ceiling guys from other teams. Phillips, Williamson, and Petty all fit that mold. If the Reds get a package around Baty or Ramirez from the mets, that's so much better than a package around, say, Kahlil Lee who is young and controllable, but doesn't have much of a ceiling.

[Assembly Hall]

Disagree. There's a change in philosophy from before. Targets now are high ceiling guys from other teams. Phillips, Williamson, and Petty all fit that mold. If the Reds get a package around Baty or Ramirez from the mets, that's so much better than a package around, say, Kahlil Lee who is young and controllable, but doesn't have much of a ceiling.

You got more faith than I do.

[MikeS21]

Disagree. There's a change in philosophy from before. Targets now are high ceiling guys from other teams. Phillips, Williamson, and Petty all fit that mold. If the Reds get a package around Baty or Ramirez from the mets, that's so much better than a package around, say, Kahlil Lee who is young and controllable, but doesn't have much of a ceiling.

I understand, but Krall needs to stop reading Baseball America in order to choose trade targets, and find some scouts who can effectively do their own evaluations and projections.

The jury is still out on Phillips, Williamson, and Petty. Yes, they all have high ceilings, but the chances that any of the three will actually reach the ceiling is extremely low. I can’t help but wonder if that is why Krall was able to acquire them. Perhaps their original teams began to have questions.

I am cynical. I think Krall will end up giving Castillo and Mahle away for PR lottery tickets that will never pay off.

[Kc61]

I’m comfortable that Reds will get good prospects, but by definition they are all lottery tickets. Sure things are very few.

[Wayne Krivsky]

I understand, but Krall needs to stop reading Baseball America in order to choose trade targets, and find some scouts who can effectively do their own evaluations and projections.

The jury is still out on Phillips, Williamson, and Petty. Yes, they all have high ceilings, but the chances that any of the three will actually reach the ceiling is extremely low. I can’t help but wonder if that is why Krall was able to acquire them. Perhaps their original teams began to have questions.

I am cynical. I think Krall will end up giving Castillo and Mahle away for PR lottery tickets that will never pay off.

While I completely understand that the Reds haven't earned the fans trust it seems that you would be bitter despite whatever moves the Reds would make at this point.

I despise the way the Reds handled the 2021/2022 offseason, but Nick Krall actually gives me some confidence in the future. He clearly did his homework and has an actual plan for once, something the Reds seem to have lacked since Walt was GM. A team like the Reds need to build around having as many quality arms in their organization as possible, and Nick was able to add three high-potential arms, and a back of rotation placeholder in Dunn to an organization that has 5-6 years of control over Greene/Ashcraft/Lodolo still. I like that plan a whole lot more than the constant panic selling of players at their lowest value like Chapman/Frazier/Cueto etc. If an organization tells a GM to get rid of payroll Krall took the right approach....unless we get into the Mike Minor debacle which I have no defense of, but that's another story.

[0-2 Count]

It does not matter who they get back in a trade. If that prospect fulfills his promise, he will be traded as well before he becomes arbitration eligible. Does anyone expect Hunter Greene to be a Red when his arbitration window opens? The only way the Reds ever become a contender is if the young core exceeds expectations early on AND they get unexpected performances from a couple of scrap heap veterans (e.g. Drury this year if we only had a productive young core around him).

The Reds should be building a pitching staff around Luis Castillo instead of looking to trade him.

[UKFlounder]

I expect Hunter to be a Red when he becomes arbitration eligible.

Have they traded away anyone before arbitration arrived? Maybe Winker, but that was to get rid of Suarez (whom they did not trade when his arbitration time started.)

Now, as free-agency approache, perhaps, but not just on the coming of arbitration. They usually settle those cases, rarely even with a hearing.

It does not matter who they get back in a trade. If that prospect fulfills his promise, he will be traded as well before he becomes arbitration eligible. Does anyone expect Hunter Greene to be a Red when his arbitration window opens? The only way the Reds ever become a contender is if the young core exceeds expectations early on AND they get unexpected performances from a couple of scrap heap veterans (e.g. Drury this year if we only had a productive young core around him).

The Reds should be building a pitching staff around Luis Castillo instead of looking to trade him.

[Wayne Krivsky]

It does not matter who they get back in a trade. If that prospect fulfills his promise, he will be traded as well before he becomes arbitration eligible. Does anyone expect Hunter Greene to be a Red when his arbitration window opens? The only way the Reds ever become a contender is if the young core exceeds expectations early on AND they get unexpected performances from a couple of scrap heap veterans (e.g. Drury this year if we only had a productive young core around him).

The Reds should be building a pitching staff around Luis Castillo instead of looking to trade him.

I expect Greene to be here for a half decade and then be flipped, but who really knows, I thought the same about Votto. The Reds have almost no major financial obligations after next year so they could look to get creative and extend a couple players.

I'd be fine with the Reds keeping Mahle/Castillo then going into 2023 with a rotation of

Castillo
Mahle
Greene
Lodolo
Ashcraft

That should play in 2023, especially since you'll have some actual SP depth and have really #6/7 starters. The concern I have is do the Reds have the ability to fill in the gaps in the lineup & bullpen without moving Castillo and/or Mahle? As silly as it may sound the strength of the Reds right now is their starting pitching and starting pitching depth on the farm. Moving that for a guy at the AAA or MLB level who can plug right in to the OF could be a huge shot in the arm for the Reds.

Honestly it feels like moving Castillo for a big haul now is the safest move for the Reds. The downfall of Johnny Cueto after he left the Reds should be a reminder of that. Not to say every pitcher hits 30 and its all downhill from there, but I would much rather the Reds invest long term in the lineup, and continue to try and develop the pitching. I don't have a crystal ball, but that feels like the better bet for sustained success and the avoidance of longer rebuilds.

[malcontent]

Honestly it feels like moving Castillo for a big haul now is the safest move for the Reds.

Makes sense to me, especially now that his velocity appears to be back.

[KeefeCato]

Here's my fantasy starting lineup:

Trade:
Mahle
Castillo
Gutierrez

Starters:
Greene
Ashcraft
Overton
Lodolo
HELP

Bullpen:
HELP
Diaz
Detwiler
Cessa

Lineup:
C Stephenson
1B HELP
2B India
SS Farmer
3B Drury
RF Pham
CF HELP
LF Almora
DH Votto

Bench
Moustakas (IF)
Naquin (OF)
Naquin (OF)
Aquino (OF)
Friedl (OF)
Reynolds (IF)
Lopez (IF)

I'm not ready to give up on Aquino. Lots of power, has speed, is a very good right fielder. The Reds need to get him help. Just my two cents.

With that roster. The HELP it would need would be Sandy Alcantara for the rotation. Mike Trout for CF. Pete Alonso for 1B and even the very best reliever in baseball would not be enough HELP for that bullpen.
I mean Overton is a guy who had 3-4 good starts isn't young and has back problems now.
Pham is barley holding on to a MLB career. He will be out of the game soon. This is Possibly it for him in 2022.
Farmer is a bench player on a good team. Nothing wrong with that but if he is your starting SS you better have a stacked lineup around him. Almora same backup player at best. Detwiler has been terrible his whole career. His handful of good innings this year mean very little. Look for him to implode anytime and people will be screaming Release this guy. Drury hasn't been good in a few years and his best seasons screamed backup. Is his first half breakout for real? Hopefully but highly doubtful.
I'm not trying to be mean. Just trying to be a realist. I hope if the Reds put your roster on the field it plays great. But I don't see it. Dela Cruz , Barrero and McLain are the Reds hope moving forward along with Stephenson India and some free agents. And the mid tier level at best type guys they will sign. They have to get lucky on most of them.
Add in the 3 rookie starting pitchers you named plus Diaz and the couple of arms they got in trades that are in the minors with a few free agent relievers .Add in whoever they get at the deadline this year is the future . They have to make good not great but good free agent signings and have to make good trades in order to be a contender.
Guys like Detwiler, Almora, Overton, Cessa, Pham have no spot on the next contending Reds team.

[0-2 Count]

I expect Hunter to be a Red when he becomes arbitration eligible.

Have they traded away anyone before arbitration arrived? Maybe Winker, but that was to get rid of Suarez (whom they did not trade when his arbitration time started.)

Now, as free-agency approache, perhaps, but not just on the coming of arbitration. They usually settle those cases, rarely even with a hearing.

Fair point. And, I meant Free Agency. My fingers typed arbitration for some reason. But, my point remains the same. We can get all the young talent in the world, but this ownership group is not going to let that talent age long enough to have Astros or Braves type success. It will be dismantled before it gets to that point unless the youngsters reach full impact sooner than expected.

[KeefeCato]

Provided he stays healthy. And Provided the Reds have enough pieces to contend when Hunter can become a free agent. Hopefully a different ownership group will be in place. Because if this current ownership would extend him to a LTC. It would be a Griffey or Votto situation. Where the Reds would have Greene and a handful of good players .The rest of the roster would be scrubs. Cause one big signing would be all this bunch would fork out for.