Nick Krall: Aug.2nd Trade Deadline

[Big Klu]

Another gem from Castillo. Montas likely to the IL.

Krall cannot afford to muck this one up.

Sure he can.

#whereyagonnago

[podgejeff_]

If Montas is damaged goods then the Reds have all the leverage. They absolutely should start out asking for the moon, and see if anyone bites. Looking at the prospects for some of these contending teams I don't think asking for the top 3 is that unreasonable. If a top 10 overall prospect is the headliner then you can settle for lesser secondary pieces. These trade(much like the 2015 trades) will decide if the Reds build a winning team in the near future or repeat their Cueto and Chapman blunders.

This is a whole different stratosphere of value than a half season of Cueto and a season of Chapman (assuming Castillo doesn't go crazy in the next month and Bob decides to trade him for Eric Jagielo again).

This is the top two starters available in a market we have cornered for a year and a half of control.

[Benihana]

The Reds should get no less than two top 30 prospects and an 80-120 guy for Castillo.

For Mahle I’d be ok with one top 50 guy and one 80-100 guy.

I know rankings don’t matter and I’d rather see them get a lower ranked guy that actually fulfills his promise but that should be the equivalent value of what they get. You can make an argument for a fourth player for Castillo as well, but I’d rather see them deviate from their past miscues and go for quality over quantity, something they’ve never been very good at in big deals.

[Benihana]

From Boston they need to get at least two of Casas/Mayer/Bello

From the Yankees they need to get Dominguez, Waldichuk, and Volpe (although we already have enough SS in the high minors)

From LA they need to get Pages, Miller, and one of Busch/Vargas

From STL they need to get Liberatore, Walker, Baez and Burleson.

Those are my asks for Castillo as of right now. He is by far the #1 guy on the trade market. Make someone pay the ask.

[kaldaniels]

From Boston they need to get at least two of Casas/Mayer/Bello

From the Yankees they need to get Dominguez, Waldichuk, and Volpe (although we already have enough SS in the high minors)

From LA they need to get Pages, Miller, and one of Busch/Vargas

From STL they need to get Liberatore, Walker, Baez and Burleson.

Those are my asks for Castillo as of right now. He is by far the #1 guy on the trade market. Make someone pay the ask.

I’m down.

Those are the kind of guys I’m always whining about the Reds not getting in a return.

[podgejeff_]

From Boston they need to get at least two of Casas/Mayer/Bello

From the Yankees they need to get Dominguez, Waldichuk, and Volpe (although we already have enough SS in the high minors)

From LA they need to get Pages, Miller, and one of Busch/Vargas

From STL they need to get Liberatore, Walker, Baez and Burleson.

Those are my asks for Castillo as of right now. He is by far the #1 guy on the trade market. Make someone pay the ask.

STL can have Castillo for the low low price of their entire farm. They have to pay a premium to have our guy help them compete against us for the division next year.

Unrealistic? Fine by me. Shop elsewhere.

[REDREAD]

Maybe they won't hit on 40% like they did this year, but if they get 2 good players every year using this method, half as successful, it would make a real difference.

It wont' make a difference though. Are the Reds going to pay Pham, Drury, and Solano to be here next year? And if the Reds do, will they repeat their production?
They did "hit" on those three guys, but we're still going to probably lose 100 games, so what difference does it make?
Why was Hunter Strickland the only bullpen addition of note? Ray Charles could see that the bullpen was going to be a dumpster fire this year.
The plan is the same as it was when Cueto and Leake were dumped.. Dupe the fans into thinking that you are building an awesome farm system and a winner will be down the road.
So they tank 5 years, spend some money on FA to get to about 500 (Probably makes the dumb expanded playoffs. ) get blown out in playoffs. Rebuild again for 5 years.
That's the plan..
I mean, finding 3 decent bargain free agents on one year contracts every year, while decimating the MLB roster talent (all the guys they dumped) is a net loss.
Wouldn't you rather have Sonny Gray than Pham now? More talent (and salary) left than came back in from FA. It's easy to see.

[JCM11]

From Boston they need to get at least two of Casas/Mayer/Bello

From the Yankees they need to get Dominguez, Waldichuk, and Volpe (although we already have enough SS in the high minors)

From LA they need to get Pages, Miller, and one of Busch/Vargas

From STL they need to get Liberatore, Walker, Baez and Burleson.

Those are my asks for Castillo as of right now. He is by far the #1 guy on the trade market. Make someone pay the ask.

I like the Red Sox and Cardinal players the best out of that lot. I think Castillio ends up in the AL East or LA, but a package of Liberatore, Walker, and Burleson is pretty darn good. If Mayer is in play I would lean towards a deal with Boston.

[lollipopcurve]

I hate to say this, but I think the packages proposed here are pie in the sky. GMs have been very tight fisted with their very best prospects for years now, and I doubt that changes in the competition for 1.5 years of Castillo. Instead of Casas, Bello and Mayer, for example, I think the Reds may be able to get Casas or Bello plus a couple of lesser guys… with zero shot at Mayer. Hope I’m wrong….

[Benihana]

I hate to say this, but I think the packages proposed here are pie in the sky. GMs have been very tight fisted with their very best prospects for years now, and I doubt that changes in the competition for 1.5 years of Castillo. Instead of Casas, Bello and Mayer, for example, I think the Reds may be able to get Casas or Bello plus a couple of lesser guys… with zero shot at Mayer. Hope I’m wrong….

Well those would be my asks for the next three weeks. You always have the last week of shyly to loosen up and lower the ask if it’s clear that no one will meet the ask.

[Mitri]

Yeah, the Yankees aren't giving up Volpe and Dominguez in any deal, especially for Castillo (but I'd be more than fine making Volpe my #1 target, the other guys wouldn't matter much). I know Domingues isn't a super highly-rated guy but in Yankees world, he's beyond hyped - so he's basically like a top 10 guy in all of baseball to Yankees fans.

Boston's not giving up Mayer/Casas/Bello for Luis. Casas and Bello would be a fine package for Castillo.

These are sort of Kevin Durant type asks for a guy who's really a #2 starter at his best. I love Castillo and I know the Reds have some leverage now, but let's be reasonable. GMs can just walk away, and we all know Krall will likely give into the first half-decent deal anyway.

[Old school 1983]

Isn't this also conjecture though?

Sure. But when one point of conjecture is spending and the team has been all over the board recently and we have no outward knowledge of their inner thinking and workings besides the words of what a big chunk of the board considers pathological liars in the FO, and the other was a performance trend and talent evaluation we could see with our own eyes, one becomes a far safer bet to say than the other.

[MoneyInTheBank]

Sure. But when one point of conjecture is spending and the team has been all over the board recently and we have no outward knowledge of their inner thinking and workings besides the words of what a big chunk of the board considers pathological liars in the FO, and the other was a performance trend and talent evaluation we could see with our own eyes, one becomes a far safer bet to say than the other.

Eh, I think you're reaching. That team was 31-29 with a pythagorean of 30-30 (they scored exactly as many runs as they allowed) and had to go on a big time hot streak to even get above .500 (11-3 over their last 14). One could argue that the playoff result was proof that they were closer to the 20-26 start than they were the 11-3 finish.

To bring it back to your original point, which was that 2020 was proof they haven't been re-building for 8 years. Maybe different folks have different definitions of a re-build. If it is defined as "not trying to win", then I think you have a point that they actually tried to win in 2020. If it is defined as having a sustained lack of success regardless of effort, there is a strong point to be made that 2020 is part of a re-build or just a blip as they gave away the bullpen and let the Cy Young winner walk.

[MoneyInTheBank]

The Jose Berrios deal in 2021 is probably the best and most recent comp to these deals. Berrios was 27 with 1.5 years of control and netted 2 players, both top 100 prospects from the Blue Jays. Castillo and Mahle both have 1.5 years of control. Mahle is 27, Castillo 29. Castillo is probably the better pitcher, Berrios gets the edge over Mahle.

Castillo can probably fetch a similar package of 2 top 100 prospects. Mahle probably less. Maybe a top 100 guy and a live arm who projects as a reliever?

[Strikes Out Looking]

This thread makes me ask, what ever happen to Finnegan? Is he still in extended spring training for the Reds?