Nick Krall: Aug.2nd Trade Deadline

[Strikes Out Looking]

The Castellini family July 4 celebration- times are hard, can't even eat the produce that the trucks failed to get to market.

[mth123]

The Reds have 40 something million dedicated to payroll next year. A 15-20M FA or two isn’t going to max out the payroll. Don’t go it’s throwing money at any and everyone trying to buy your way into a winner. Selectively target a higher end guy or two and be willing to go a little higher than other markets would to get them in here. If they can’t reel in one of those guys, move on to the lower tier guys. They’ve actually had some success with that group in the past couple years. Add targeted guys as you can and have a plan B. Don’t max the payroll unless it’s a bona fide all in type year. There are ways to do this intelligently. IMO the Reds have what they do now because they just threw money at any and everyone in 2020.

And when the good FA won't take their money, you end up just throwing money at the lesser guys.

What does a little more mean? Andrew Benintendi has been thrown out as an example and from a talent point of view, he's a great target. He'll get multiple offers and some from teams that aren't laughingstocks like the Reds, Orioles and Pirates. So how much more would the reds need to pay to get him? I imagine he'll be offered 3 or 4 years at $15 Million per year. Would you go $17 Million per year for that long? $20 Million? If I was him and had an offer of 4 years, $60 Million form a contender, I'd probably want 4 years, $80 Million to play for the Reds. At what point does doing that just start the cycle over again?

[Wayne Krivsky]

And when the good FA won't take their money, you end up just throwing money at the lesser guys.

What does a little more mean? Andrew Benintendi has been thrown out as an example and from a talent point of view, he's a great target. He'll get multiple offers and some from teams that aren't laughingstocks like the Reds, Orioles and Pirates. So how much more would the reds need to pay to get him? I imagine he'll be offered 3 or 4 years at $15 Million per year. Would you go $17 Million per year for that long? $20 Million? If I was him and had an offer of 4 years, $60 Million form a contender, I'd probably want 4 years, $80 Million to play for the Reds. At what point does doing that just start the cycle over again?

As much as I want to use Castellanos as a counter argument, the Reds were already making moves when they made that signing (trading for Bauer for example). It may work out for the Reds to where a guy like Benintendi doesn't get the offers he was hoping to this offseason and settles for a 1 year or opt out type deal with the Reds where he can hit in GABP for a year to improve is value and try again. The Reds are most likely going to be shopping for the next Benintendi who some team is selling low on, not going after the known commodity. My bigger fear is they target a guy like Joey Gallo, market him to have a huge rebound in GABP and call it an offseason.

[mth123]

As much as I want to use Castellanos as a counter argument, the Reds were already making moves when they made that signing (trading for Bauer for example). It may work out for the Reds to where a guy like Benintendi doesn't get the offers he was hoping to this offseason and settles for a 1 year or opt out type deal with the Reds where he can hit in GABP for a year to improve is value and try again. The Reds are most likely going to be shopping for the next Benintendi who some team is selling low on, not going after the known commodity. My bigger fear is they target a guy like Joey Gallo, market him to have a huge rebound in GABP and call it an offseason.

I think until this team can start filling in its major roles with something other than stopgaps, they will have a hard time getting anyone to sign who is good enough to have other options. So far, 2022 hasn't answered any of those questions. Its just added injury (Lodolo, Stephenson) and performance (Senzel, Barrero, India, Greene) questions to some of the guys who were supposed to start filling in that picture.

[Kc61]

The Reds will get almost any free agent they want - for the best offer. A few may want a different location. But most of these guys are looking for their payday. Guaranteed money, as many years as possible. And sometimes player options or opt-out provisions. That’s what matters most.

Like I said previously, ask Mike Moustakas if he’s unhappy he signed with the Reds for $64 million or whatever number. I’m sure he has zero regrets despite these miserable seasons.

The deal is the thing.

[mth123]

The Reds will get almost any free agent they want - for the best offer. A few may want a different location. But most of these guys are looking for their payday. Guaranteed money, as many years as possible. And sometimes player options or opt-out provisions. That’s what matters most.

Like I said previously, ask Mike Moustakas if he’s unhappy he signed with the Reds for $64 million or whatever number. I’m sure he has zero regrets despite these miserable seasons.

The deal is the thing.

If he would have had an offer of $63 Million from a contender he'd have taken it. The Reds got him because the blew the market away, not just nosed it out. They will have to do the same with anyone and will probably end up in the same predicament.

[HokieRed]

If he would have had an offer of $63 Million from a contender he'd have taken it. The Reds got him because the blew the market away, not just nosed it out. They will have to do the same with anyone and will probably end up in the same predicament.

I'm not quite as doubtful as this, but I think mth's hit on a real danger. The Moustakas deal should only be used as evidence for one thing, IMO: the kind of deal the Reds must absolutely never again enter into.

[Old school 1983]

If he would have had an offer of $63 Million from a contender he'd have taken it. The Reds got him because the blew the market away, not just nosed it out. They will have to do the same with anyone and will probably end up in the same predicament.

The reds were contenders that year and everyone and their brother knew the reds were ready to spend that offseason. They might have to overpay a little bit to get some FA initially. Pick the right players and who really cares. If not, they will be waiting for doomsday for an entire group of prospects to fall in their lap and gel at the right time.

[JCM11]

The reds were contenders that year and everyone and their brother knew the reds were ready to spend that offseason. They might have to overpay a little bit to get some FA initially. Pick the right players and who really cares. If not, they will be waiting for doomsday for an entire group of prospects to fall in their lap and gel at the right time.

I think if we load up on top 100 prospects by trading Castillo and Mahle then the Reds could use their prospect surplus in the trade market this off season. Maybe add a high priced vet or two, and trade some lower level talent for more MLB ready talent.

[Old school 1983]

I think if we load up on top 100 prospects by trading Castillo and Mahle then the Reds could use their prospect surplus in the trade market this off season. Maybe add a high priced vet or two, and trade some lower level talent for more MLB ready talent.

That works too. Just find ways to bring in talent that can play at the MLB level. FA is only one possibility

[REDREAD]

Also, a core is usually 3-4 players. Not every starting position player unless you’re a once a generation type team like the BRM. Even then, the core could be pretty well understood to be Bench, Rose, Morgan, and Perez.
\

My definition of core is different. We can call it a different word.. When I said "Core" I meant players that are at least average that the team has control of for more than one year.
So back in the Walt years, the core was pretty large.. votto, BP, Cueto, leake, LAtos, Mesararco (Even though he flamed out), Chapman, Bruce, even Stubbs.

The Reds today are basically starting at square one. Votto is a short termer now.. Really just Indian, Stepenson, maybe 1-3 of the rookie starters (They aren't really proven yet).. Diaz potentially.. no other relievers. No other position players. That's a pitiful foundation to build on. It will take years to dig out from this hole. Reds are not going to be able to sign 6 free agent position players, an entire bullpen and two more starters (if Castillo and Mahle are traded.. if they are kept, they are foundation players too).

So yea, the Reds will probably sign some FA over the winter. I agree with you on that. But if Mahle and/or Castillo are traded, I kind of doubt those FA signings move the needle much. Maybe it moves them to a 95 loss team instead of a 100+ loss team..

[REDREAD]

The Reds will get almost any free agent they want - for the best offer. A few may want a different location. But most of these guys are looking for their payday. Guaranteed money, as many years as possible. And sometimes player options or opt-out provisions. That’s what matters most.

Like I said previously, ask Mike Moustakas if he’s unhappy he signed with the Reds for $64 million or whatever number. I’m sure he has zero regrets despite these miserable seasons.

The deal is the thing.

Sure, they can in theory.
Reality? Reds are not going to make the best offer for the most premium FA on the market.
Occasionally they can get one (like Castanallos), but not consistently.
Just look at Bauer. People kept saying "There's a chance he could come back". Reality? No chance the Reds were going to outbid the Dodgers. If the Reds offered Bauer 60 million a year (hypothetically) , LA would go to 70 million/year.

[Kc61]

Sure, they can in theory.
Reality? Reds are not going to make the best offer for the most premium FA on the market.
Occasionally they can get one (like Castanallos), but not consistently.
Just look at Bauer. People kept saying "There's a chance he could come back". Reality? No chance the Reds were going to outbid the Dodgers. If the Reds offered Bauer 60 million a year (hypothetically) , LA would go to 70 million/year.

Not sure where “premium FA” comes from. I don’t envision that. I’m not talking about Cy Young winners, like Bauer at that time. I don’t think the Reds are ready to take on that kind of commitment. Even if they would.

But players in the range of $10 to, say, $18 million AAV for three years? Solid guys. Maybe a couple of excellent relievers at the lower end of the range. That’s what they should be adding now. Start to compile the infrastructure of a solid team.

I think the Reds would spend that money to avoid another embarrassing season.

[BCubb2003]

https://mobile.twitter.com/CharlieG_...95847597867009

Tommy Pham is still a believer.

“You've just got to add a piece or two and you have not only a contender but a team that everybody's looking at different.”



I’m thinking a legit closer and another legit outfield bat. I don’t think I can do it in two. A third baseman, Barrero or del a Cruz? Keep the rotation intact. More bullpen help. Votto Stephenson DH 1B help.

[Old school 1983]

https://mobile.twitter.com/CharlieG_...95847597867009

Tommy Pham is still a believer.

“You've just got to add a piece or two and you have not only a contender but a team that everybody's looking at different.”



I’m thinking a legit closer and another legit outfield bat. I don’t think I can do it in two. A third baseman, Barrero or del a Cruz? Keep the rotation intact. More bullpen help. Votto Stephenson DH 1B help.

That quote makes me wonder if he’s considering staying around next year