Nick Krall: Aug.2nd Trade Deadline

[Bourgeois Zee]

I suspect the Mets might say yes to a Luis Castillo for Francisco Alvarez, Brett Batty, and Mark Vientos deal, as long as the Reds also added Brandon Drury. (Cincinnati might even get them to add Dom Smith.)

I wouldn't do that deal without Alvarez.

[Old school 1983]

I suspect the Mets might say yes to a Luis Castillo for Francisco Alvarez, Brett Batty, and Mark Vientos deal, as long as the Reds also added Brandon Drury. (Cincinnati might even get them to add Dom Smith.)

I wouldn't do that deal without Alvarez.

I’d love that deal.

[Redsfan6272]

A bidding war for Castillo between the Mets, Dodgers and Blue Jay's? I can see that as long as Krall isn't stupid

[Kc61]

Depends on what "contribute eventually" means. If it means getting a player that can be an every day big league player, a key bench player or a late inning reliever who can help a team win, I agree. I just don't think they are getting anything like that for what they have to sell expect for Mahle and Castillo. If it means future major leaguer who can take-up space on a roster and not really do much production-wise to actually help the team win, (like Friedl, Fraley, Aquino, Moreta, Hendrix, etc) I'll pass. You can always find a body to stick on a roster and fill out a bullpen or a line-up while performing poorly. I don't have interest in acquiring more of those because the Reds will waste PAs and Innings on them while the team continues to lose.

I wouldn't include McLain, De La Cruz, Cerda or McGarry in a deal like that (unless the return was stupendous), but if I can throw a Rece Hinds or an Austin Hendrick in to a deal with Minor or Drury to get a better OF prospect back, I'd do it in a flash. Same with the pitchers, I wouldn't deal Greene, Lodolo or Ashcraft, but anyone else i'd do. I use the prospect rankings because its an easy reference to make my point, but it would of course be based on the Reds evaluation of the players involved. If some team that could use Drury has a pitcher that the Reds believe has a better chance of being a solid big leaguer than Williamson, they should absolutely add Williamson to get said pitcher. It may backfire, A lot of trades do, but the Reds should be playing the probabilities instead of hoping for longshots.

Except for the generational talents, prospects are not that predictable. Throwing good prospects into a trade to get an upgrade is a dangerous business. Rece Hinds and Austin Hendricks may be off to a slower start, but using them to get other teams’ prospects back could easily turn bad.

I would stick with my solid or better prospects as much as possible unless the return is a major talent. If my deep farm system produces some Tucker Barnharts and Kyle Farmers and Tyler Naquins, I’m ok with it. I don’t need to shoot the moon for a (supposed) all star every time - at the cost of my own farm system and its depth.

[RED VAN HOT]

Except for the generational talents, prospects are not that predictable. Throwing good prospects into a trade to get an upgrade is a dangerous business. Rece Hinds and Austin Hendricks may be off to a slower start, but using them to get other teams’ prospects back could easily turn bad.

I would stick with my solid or better prospects as much as possible unless the return is a major talent. If my deep farm system produces some Tucker Barnharts and Kyle Farmers and Tyler Naquins, I’m ok with it. I don’t need to shoot the moon for a (supposed) all star every time - at the cost of my own farm system and its depth.

It's pretty much a numbers game. Some work out; many don't. There are no sure things. For small market teams accumulating prospects should be a way of life. Scouting, trading ML players for prospects, and player development all factor in. Let's hope the Reds are good at these things.

[Kc61]

It's pretty much a numbers game. Some work out; many don't. There are no sure things. For small market teams accumulating prospects should be a way of life. Scouting, trading ML players for prospects, and player development all factor in. Let's hope the Reds are good at these things.

Which is what I’m trying to say. Accumulate good prospects. Don’t throw them into trades unless the upgrade is very substantial. We don’t need more Justin Turner situations, trading a non-premium prospect who became an all star.

[WrongVerb]

A bidding war for Castillo between the Mets, Dodgers and Blue Jay's? I can see that as long as Krall isn't stupid

The Yankees aren't sitting that one out either.

[mth123]

Except for the generational talents, prospects are not that predictable. Throwing good prospects into a trade to get an upgrade is a dangerous business. Rece Hinds and Austin Hendricks may be off to a slower start, but using them to get other teams’ prospects back could easily turn bad.

I would stick with my solid or better prospects as much as possible unless the return is a major talent. If my deep farm system produces some Tucker Barnharts and Kyle Farmers and Tyler Naquins, I’m ok with it. I don’t need to shoot the moon for a (supposed) all star every time - at the cost of my own farm system and its depth.

I'm not asking for an all star at every position. This team needs to add core players though. Right now, the core consists of India, Stephenson, Greene, Lodolo and Ashcraft and the jury is still out on all three of those pitchers. Everyone else is a temp at this point. Even Votto is gone after 2023. In the minors we have hope for De La Cruz supplementing and even leading that core. Some hope for McLain and Barrero, but stock seems to be falling because of serious contact issues. The other higher end minor leaguers are all major questions. If I can get some one who is an upgrade with a better chance at becoming part of the core, I do it in a heartbeat. This team isn't winning without filling in some of these questions with long term answers. depth is over-rated. It just means having more guys who can suck at the big league level. The Reds need higher quality, not more quantity.

[Kc61]

I'm not asking for an all star at every position. This team needs to add core players though. Right now, the core consists of India, Stephenson, Greene, Lodolo and Ashcraft and the jury is still out on all three of those pitchers. Everyone else is a temp at this point. Even Votto is gone after 2023. In the minors we have hope for De La Cruz supplementing and even leading that core. Some hope for McLain and Barrero, but stock seems to be falling because of serious contact issues. The other higher end minor leaguers are all major questions. If I can get some one who is an upgrade with a better chance at becoming part of the core, I do it in a heartbeat. This team isn't winning without filling in some of these questions with long term answers. depth is over-rated. It just means having more guys who can suck at the big league level. The Reds need higher quality, not more quantity.

I disagree. Quantity is important in a farm system. The results are too unpredictable, you need a large denominator.

If you throw a pretty good prospect into most trades, you’d better have extraordinary luck. Because there won’t be much remaining. Just the few shiny objects on whom you’ve bet the ranch.

[Kc61]

Watching tonight’s game I wondered if Reds will mostly want to dump payroll this deadline. Why throw more money at a terrible season?

That would suggest a strong effort to trade Moose’s contract in the style of the Suarez trade.

Reds would say, perhaps correctly, that such a deal opens up dollars to spend this off-season. But it wouldn’t maximize the prospect return.

Not sure it’s doable, but absolutely can see Reds trying.

[REDREAD]

I think the Reds would have a ton of theoretical payflex this offseason, even if they still have Moose.
Lots of guys on one year deals.. Minor, Pham... Shogo is gone.
If you add up all those guys that are pending FA, it's probably 25-30 million (I don't want to do the math).
I am totally against packaging a good player with Moose to get rid of Moose.. Ride it out.. We are going to suck in 2023 anyhow.
Reds ownership can pay for Moose and not give away talent with Moose to pocket more money.

I think the Reds should focus on getting bullpen arms that are a year or two away at this deadline for their filler players.. Obviously, ask more for Castillo/Mahle.
But if they can get a potential bullpen arm for someone like Drury, Solano, etc (Which I kind of doubt), they should do it.
Too bad Cessa stinks this year, he would have been a nice trading chip otherwise.

[Kc61]

I think the Reds would have a ton of theoretical payflex this offseason, even if they still have Moose.
Lots of guys on one year deals.. Minor, Pham... Shogo is gone.
If you add up all those guys that are pending FA, it's probably 25-30 million (I don't want to do the math).
I am totally against packaging a good player with Moose to get rid of Moose.. Ride it out.. We are going to suck in 2023 anyhow.
Reds ownership can pay for Moose and not give away talent with Moose to pocket more money.

I think the Reds should focus on getting bullpen arms that are a year or two away at this deadline for their filler players.. Obviously, ask more for Castillo/Mahle.
But if they can get a potential bullpen arm for someone like Drury, Solano, etc (Which I kind of doubt), they should do it.
Too bad Cessa stinks this year, he would have been a nice trading chip otherwise.

I know the fans would be against it. But don’t you think ownership would try very hard to rid itself of the commitment to MM?

Under current circumstances I think they will try.

[REDREAD]

I know the fans would be against it. But don’t you think ownership would try very hard to rid itself of the commitment to MM?

Under current circumstances I think they will try.

Oh, if you are saying ownership would do anything to dump Moose, I agree 100%.
I was just saying, dumping Moose probably hurts the team more than it helps it (since we have to package something good with Moose to get rid of him)

[Indymoon]

Watching tonight’s game I wondered if Reds will mostly want to dump payroll this deadline. Why throw more money at a terrible season?

That would suggest a strong effort to trade Moose’s contract in the style of the Suarez trade.

Reds would say, perhaps correctly, that such a deal opens up dollars to spend this off-season. But it wouldn’t maximize the prospect return.

Not sure it’s doable, but absolutely can see Reds trying.

This is my fear. In return for their desirable players (Castillio, Mahle), the Reds prioritize monetary relief (Moose's contract) at the expense of prospects in return.

[LeatherPants]

I think the Reds would have a ton of theoretical payflex this offseason, even if they still have Moose.
Lots of guys on one year deals.. Minor, Pham... Shogo is gone.
If you add up all those guys that are pending FA, it's probably 25-30 million (I don't want to do the math).


.

Based on their projected revenue, they should be able to carry a $150 million payroll with ease, so it's way more "payflex" than that. After the pending free agents are gone, they would have roughly $72 million to spend this off-season, with Moose and Votto still on the books. Even more if they trade Castillo and/or Mahle.

They won't spend that though.