Nick Krall: Aug.2nd Trade Deadline

[MoneyInTheBank]

Based on their projected revenue, they should be able to carry a $150 million payroll with ease, so it's way more "payflex" than that. After the pending free agents are gone, they would have roughly $72 million to spend this off-season, with Moose and Votto still on the books. Even more if they trade Castillo and/or Mahle.

They won't spend that though.

Someone talked about it in another thread and I wish I could give them credit but I just can't remember who. Part of the problem with the Reds is they decide when they want to spend and then find players to spend it on rather than targeting the right players and figuring out a way to spend for them. Dumping Moose at the deadline should, in no way, prevent them from spending what it takes to get the right player this offseason.

I think (hope?) the salary dump focuses on the expiring deals (Minor, Solano, Naquin and probably Pham) but nothing would shock me as far as profits are concerned

[REDREAD]

Based on their projected revenue, they should be able to carry a $150 million payroll with ease, so it's way more "payflex" than that. After the pending free agents are gone, they would have roughly $72 million to spend this off-season, with Moose and Votto still on the books. Even more if they trade Castillo and/or Mahle.

They won't spend that though.

Yep, I should have said "at least 25-30 million" in payflex.. you are right.
You are also right that ownership will probably cheap out next season too.

[Old school 1983]

Someone talked about it in another thread and I wish I could give them credit but I just can't remember who. Part of the problem with the Reds is they decide when they want to spend and then find players to spend it on rather than targeting the right players and figuring out a way to spend for them. Dumping Moose at the deadline should, in no way, prevent them from spending what it takes to get the right player this offseason.

I think (hope?) the salary dump focuses on the expiring deals (Minor, Solano, Naquin and probably Pham) but nothing would shock me as far as profits are concerned

I couldn’t agree more with that. When the Reds did spend in FA I’m 2019, it just seemed like they threw deals at everyone and prayed. They need to target specific players that fit the mold of what they want and be willing to overpay a tad for them until they build a consistent winner. If you can’t get those type of guys, scour the bounce back or diamond in the rough category of players. To Krall’s credit, he was great at bringing that type in this year. Pham, Drury, Reynolds, and Almora have all made nice contributions to the team thus far. Moran seemed to be a miss. Naquin was a nice add last year.

[#13]

Someone talked about it in another thread and I wish I could give them credit but I just can't remember who. Part of the problem with the Reds is they decide when they want to spend and then find players to spend it on rather than targeting the right players and figuring out a way to spend for them. Dumping Moose at the deadline should, in no way, prevent them from spending what it takes to get the right player this offseason.

I think (hope?) the salary dump focuses on the expiring deals (Minor, Solano, Naquin and probably Pham) but nothing would shock me as far as profits are concerned

I am not sure why anyone would want the Reds to go out and spend money on free agents. To your point, maybe they have been just spending to spend and not targeting the right fit for the team. Either way, the Reds never seem to have a "big money" free agent work out. They are at their best when they sign lower level free agents and non roster minor league free agents. Castellanos worked out because they offered an opt out in his contract and the covid year. If not for the covid year, Castellanos would not have been a Red last season, he would have opted out after the 2020 season. Castillo and Mahle could bring a pretty good haul, Drury and Naquin could bring back a lottery ticket or two. I think Farmer may be an offseason trade candidate and if Votto would waive his no trade clause and the Reds pickup most of his salary, could be a possible offseason trade candidate. However, I just do not see Votto wanting to leave.

[mth123]

I disagree. Quantity is important in a farm system. The results are too unpredictable, you need a large denominator.

If you throw a pretty good prospect into most trades, you’d better have extraordinary luck. Because there won’t be much remaining. Just the few shiny objects on whom you’ve bet the ranch.

But you can get quantity as minor league FA, off the waiver wire and lots of other places. I think we're overly concerned with lengthening the list of fungible names. You certainly don't need to trade valuable assets producing at the big league level for it. Its OK if your just dumping salary, which may be the case with Minor or lets dream big and say Moustakas, but in other cases, I want some one to upgrade the overall talent level, not add more longshots. If I can add a prospect to a guy like Drury or Pham who will be gone anyway and get a better, closer to the big leagues, prospect in return, I don't see why we wouldn't do it. Similarly, if I had to add some body to Castillo or Mahle to get the exact prospect I'm after, I'd do it. I prefer that to settling for the "we'll give you this guy instead" name.

[REDREAD]

I am not sure why anyone would want the Reds to go out and spend money on free agents. To your point, maybe they have been just spending to spend and not targeting the right fit for the team. Either way, the Reds never seem to have a "big money" free agent work out. They are at their best when they sign lower level free agents and non roster minor league free agents. Castellanos worked out because they offered an opt out in his contract and the covid year. If not for the covid year, Castellanos would not have been a Red last season, he would have opted out after the 2020 season. Castillo and Mahle could bring a pretty good haul, Drury and Naquin could bring back a lottery ticket or two. I think Farmer may be an offseason trade candidate and if Votto would waive his no trade clause and the Reds pickup most of his salary, could be a possible offseason trade candidate. However, I just do not see Votto wanting to leave.

A team can rebuild a bullpen via free agency without spending a lot of money.
Our bullpen is just awful now.
It would help the development of our young starters to add a few quality relievers.
Likewise, our lineup is pretty pathetic. That could be improved through FA, the Red would not even have to get stars, how about replacing at least one bad OF with an average guy?
The Reds will continue to have a culture of losing until they try to improve the team.
That's what makes last offseason such a crime.
The Reds were finally pulling out of the 4-5 year pointless, penny pinching rebuild. Instead, they flip the bird to the fans and players and tear it all down again.
At some point the Reds need to add some talent through FA , unless they want to continue to be a laughing stock.
I disagree with the entire "Unless it's a star impact player, don't sign him as a FA".
The Reds pretty much need everything. A few of those holes could be filled efficiently through FA.

[mth123]

A team can rebuild a bullpen via free agency without spending a lot of money.
Our bullpen is just awful now.
It would help the development of our young starters to add a few quality relievers.
Likewise, our lineup is pretty pathetic. That could be improved through FA, the Red would not even have to get stars, how about replacing at least one bad OF with an average guy?
The Reds will continue to have a culture of losing until they try to improve the team.
That's what makes last offseason such a crime.
The Reds were finally pulling out of the 4-5 year pointless, penny pinching rebuild. Instead, they flip the bird to the fans and players and tear it all down again.
At some point the Reds need to add some talent through FA , unless they want to continue to be a laughing stock.
I disagree with the entire "Unless it's a star impact player, don't sign him as a FA".
The Reds pretty much need everything. A few of those holes could be filled efficiently through FA.

The problem is that this team needs a complete bullpen, a SS or a 3B, 3 starting caliber outfielders who can hit and a DH who can add offense. Once Mahle and Castillo are gone they'll also need at least two number 3 or better starting pitchers and maybe another starter or two depending on how Lodolo, Greene and Ashcraft continue to progress.

The Basically have 3 potential starters, Stephenson, Votto, India and Farmer. I'm not convinced anyone from the minor leagues is coming to supplement that at this point. Barrero has become a question mark and McLain is producing at AA with a lot so Ks which make me wonder if that production will hold as he is promoted. Too many of the Reds offensive prospects profile to be Aristedes Aquino. Spending a little on the bullpen will help, but its like throwing a 5 gallon jug of water into a drying up reservoir. This team is probably 10 to 12 players away from being a contender at this point. 4 Relievers minimum, 3 OF, a DH and an Infielder, a couple more starting pitchers and a solid 300 PA bench guy at minimum.

[REDREAD]

The problem is that this team needs a complete bullpen, a SS or a 3B, 3 starting caliber outfielders who can hit and a DH who can add offense. Once Mahle and Castillo are gone they'll also need at least two number 3 or better starting pitchers and maybe another starter or two depending on how Lodolo, Greene and Ashcraft continue to progress.

The Basically have 3 potential starters, Stephenson, Votto, India and Farmer. I'm not convinced anyone from the minor leagues is coming to supplement that at this point. Barrero has become a question mark and McLain is producing at AA with a lot so Ks which make me wonder if that production will hold as he is promoted. Too many of the Reds offensive prospects profile to be Aristedes Aquino. Spending a little on the bullpen will help, but its like throwing a 5 gallon jug of water into a drying up reservoir. This team is probably 10 to 12 players away from being a contender at this point. 4 Relievers minimum, 3 OF, a DH and an Infielder, a couple more starting pitchers and a solid 300 PA bench guy at minimum.

The Reds are far away from contending, they need a lot. However, my approach is that you become a contender by filling one hole at a time, and it takes years.
Maybe the Reds only get 2 bullpen arms and one OF this year. At least that's somewhat of an upgrade. Hard to go from 100 losses to 90 wins in one offseason.
It's going to take years to recover from the mess ownership and the Front office have created. Hopefully they start working on it this winter, but I kind of doubt it.
Of course, last winter's actions are going to make it even harder to attract even average players to the talent desert of Cincy.
Adding 2 good bullpen arms would make these team much more watchable.

[LeatherPants]

The Reds are far away from contending, they need a lot. However, my approach is that you become a contender by filling one hole at a time, and it takes years.
Maybe the Reds only get 2 bullpen arms and one OF this year. At least that's somewhat of an upgrade. Hard to go from 100 losses to 90 wins in one offseason.
It's going to take years to recover from the mess ownership and the Front office have created. Hopefully they start working on it this winter, but I kind of doubt it.
Of course, last winter's actions are going to make it even harder to attract even average players to the talent desert of Cincy.
Adding 2 good bullpen arms would make these team much more watchable.

It wouldn't take nearly as long if they spent the money that they actually have.

[InsaneinthBrame]

https://www.baseball-reference.com/b...evenue_sharing

It is always fun to remind people how much these teams make

As of 2018 each team got 118M from the local revenue sharing (48%)
They also received 91M from national revenue
Plus you have your 52% that you keep based off of the Rays getting 50M to get to that 118 number would mean 88M would be 48% of local revenue. Thus making the Rays 73.4M the 52% that they kept.
The Reds income based on this is al least what the Rays made Which is (118+91+73.4) 282.4M revenue generated.
It is likely that the Reds revenue is at least 280M So spending 50% on salary seems standard which is 140M but our payroll is around 115M.

[westofyou]

https://www.baseball-reference.com/b...evenue_sharing

It is always fun to remind people how much these teams make

As of 2018 each team got 118M from the local revenue sharing (48%)
They also received 91M from national revenue
Plus you have your 52% that you keep based off of the Rays getting 50M to get to that 118 number would mean 88M would be 48% of local revenue. Thus making the Rays 73.4M the 52% that they kept.
The Reds income based on this is al least what the Rays made Which is (118+91+73.4) 282.4M revenue generated.
It is likely that the Reds revenue is at least 280M So spending 50% on salary seems standard which is 140M but our payroll is around 115M.

When you have 20 partners the take is smaller, so you tend to spend less on the product to maximize the value of your investment in the team and once your real estate investments in the surrounding area are locked into completion and long term leases what's the point in doing that regularly?

[Strikes Out Looking]

If I was current ownership, I'd move Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo and maybe Elly de la Cruz for some A type prospects. I figure you can get about 15 of them, all likely rated highly to populate Dayton and Daytona this year, Chattanooga and Louisville next year. Some will reach the majors by 2024 - they are under control until 2030 (even though the good ones could be flipped in 2025 or so) when Bob will be fed soup by his nurses. Think of all the money saved by not going to arbitration with Hunter and Nick...it must make the Castellini and Williams boys ecstatic.

[Ron Madden]

https://www.baseball-reference.com/b...evenue_sharing

It is always fun to remind people how much these teams make

As of 2018 each team got 118M from the local revenue sharing (48%)
They also received 91M from national revenue
Plus you have your 52% that you keep based off of the Rays getting 50M to get to that 118 number would mean 88M would be 48% of local revenue. Thus making the Rays 73.4M the 52% that they kept.
The Reds income based on this is al least what the Rays made Which is (118+91+73.4) 282.4M revenue generated.
It is likely that the Reds revenue is at least 280M So spending 50% on salary seems standard which is 140M but our payroll is around 115M.

LanceMcAlister
@LanceMcAlister

Reds ownership saved some money this year and erased Suarez money for the future in attempting to square the books from Covid.

But what they have lost in goodwill and trust with fans will cost them for years to come.

It was a shortsighted calculation that will haunt for years to come.

[WrongVerb]

LanceMcAlister
@LanceMcAlister

Reds ownership saved some money this year and erased Suarez money for the future in attempting to square the books from Covid.

But what they have lost in goodwill and trust with fans will cost them for years to come.

It was a shortsighted calculation that will haunt for years to come.

They haven't lost that goodwill, they've just aligned it with resources.

[Roy Tucker]

They haven't lost that goodwill, they've just aligned it with resources.

They lost my good will and I’m about diehard as a Reds fan you can find.