Reds Trade Rumor Discussion

[Tony Cloninger]

The Yankees and Dodgers have no incentive to trade with you in good faith. You have to hope the Twins. Astros. Blue Jays. Padres want in on this. Those 2 teams specifically do not need to give you much. You won’t give him to us for what we are offering. We will just sign a FA or get someone else to give me someone not us good but less costly. We can always wait you out or get a FA.

[membengal]

I doubt any Major League Baseball general managers are using a website called Baseball Trade Values in their considerations, FWIW.

God knows the Reds are not.

[mth123]

The Yankees and Dodgers have no incentive to trade with you in good faith. You have to hope the Twins. Astros. Blue Jays. Padres want in on this. Those 2 teams specifically do not need to give you much. You won’t give him to us for what we are offering. We will just sign a FA or get someone else to give me someone not us good but less costly. We can always wait you out or get a FA.

They can't do that before the end of the season. If they want the best pitcher on the market to help them win the world series in 2022, they need to pay up. There isn't a close second available now that Montas is hurt. If there is, its Mahle which gives the reds more leverage. They need to use their leverage in any negotiation.

There is a significant risk to these teams that the Reds trade Castillo to another contender and he comes in and shuts thems downin the play-offs or World series and that could be the difference in winning and losing in a short series.

If winning the World series isn't the motivation, then I agree. I think it is, especially in LAs case.

[WrongVerb]

I doubt any Major League Baseball general managers are using a website called Baseball Trade Values in their considerations, FWIW.

I suspect baseball general managers are operating with about 10x the knowledge and 10x the expertise of anyone creating mock trades on that site. (And I say that as someone who is always putting mock trades on that site. LOL)

[RedTeamGo!]

Padres get:

Luis Castillo

Reds get:

Robert Hassell III
Robert Gasser

Who says no?

[JCM11]

Something like Vargas and Pepoit and a lesser piece would be the kind of deal the Reds should take at the last minute if no better offers come in. If a team wants the trade done early then they have to step up with their #1 prospect. I think injuries will end up deciding who goes big in the trade market. The Mets are probably waiting to see how deGrom does in his rehab starts before making a move. The Yankees look good at SP right now, but Severino and Cortes are being asked to throw more innings than they have in years. Boston has a bunch of SP injuries and Bello is making his MLB debut tomorrow so that's something to watch.

[JCM11]

Padres get:

Luis Castillo

Reds get:

Robert Hassell III
Robert Gasser

Who says no?

Right now the Reds should say no. Hassell is a good looking CF prospect with some pop and speed while Gasser is a 23 year old SP doing pretty well in A+ ball. The Padres need offense more than pitching so I see Drury as a throw in candidate for them that makes sense. From the Reds perspective I'd say throw in a better second piece or add a third piece as good as Gasser.

[marcshoe]

I suspect baseball general managers are operating with about 10x the knowledge and 10x the expertise of anyone creating mock trades on that site. (And I say that as someone who is always putting mock trades on that site. LOL)

Yes, my understanding is that GMs actually come to this site for ideas. Usually on Tuesdays, so everybody be on your best behavior today.

[Musketeer22]

The Twins got Austin Martin and Simeon Woods Richardson for Jose Berrios last year. Depending on the site, those guys were around #15 overall and #70 overall. Berrios had the same amount of team control as Castillo.

That is where the bar is set. You don't accept anything less. Period.

[InsaneinthBrame]

Something like Vargas and Pepoit and a lesser piece would be the kind of deal the Reds should take at the last minute if no better offers come in. If a team wants the trade done early then they have to step up with their #1 prospect. I think injuries will end up deciding who goes big in the trade market. The Mets are probably waiting to see how deGrom does in his rehab starts before making a move. The Yankees look good at SP right now, but Severino and Cortes are being asked to throw more innings than they have in years. Boston has a bunch of SP injuries and Bello is making his MLB debut tomorrow so that's something to watch.

I do not get the desire to get Pepoit he is a poor fit for GABP. He has poor control and has been prone to the HR ball. Horrible combo for a pitcher in GABP.

[Wayne Krivsky]

Right now the Reds should say no. Hassell is a good looking CF prospect with some pop and speed while Gasser is a 23 year old SP doing pretty well in A+ ball. The Padres need offense more than pitching so I see Drury as a throw in candidate for them that makes sense. From the Reds perspective I'd say throw in a better second piece or add a third piece as good as Gasser.

I'd pass if I were the Reds. Hassell is a phenomenal prospect, but I have to believe that the Reds are going to target guys in the upper minors as the main piece of a deal. They chose to start the clock on guys like Greene & Lodolo to start this season. I have to believe they don't want to wait 2-3 years for someone to produce at the MLB level. They need to win the fans back quicker than that with new stars.

Plus they probably need a stronger secondary piece to complete that deal.

[JCM11]

I do not get the desire to get Pepoit he is a poor fit for GABP. He has poor control and has been prone to the HR ball. Horrible combo for a pitcher in GABP.

Pepoit had HR issues last year that seem to have been corrected this year with 4 HR in 55 innings in AAA and 1 HR in 11 inning so far in the bigs. This is a pitcher who has already made it to the Show so I feel better about trading for him than some 23 year old doing ok in A+ ball.

I'd pass if I were the Reds. Hassell is a phenomenal prospect, but I have to believe that the Reds are going to target guys in the upper minors as the main piece of a deal. They chose to start the clock on guys like Greene & Lodolo to start this season. I have to believe they don't want to wait 2-3 years for someone to produce at the MLB level. They need to win the fans back quicker than that with new stars.

Plus they probably need a stronger secondary piece to complete that deal.

I agree with not wanting a bunch of lower minors players in return for Castillo unless we're talking a top 10 caliber stud. The Reds need to minimize the risk as much as possible on the return. I'd be ok with one 2023 MLB ready player and one potential superstar to pair with Elly in AA so they can come up together.

[757690]

I doubt any Major League Baseball general managers are using a website called Baseball Trade Values in their considerations, FWIW.

This is correct. Everything coming from that site should be taken with a huge grain of salt.

However, the methodology that that site uses is the same methodology that every MLB team uses. They assign value to every player based on estimated future production and their salary under their current contract. That is their trade value.

The difficulty is in estimating future value. This is especially difficult with prospects, and where, imo, the site has the most problems. MLB teams have significantly more info and data on prospects and have a much better grasp on their estimated future production and trade value.

[Kc61]

LA wants to win the world series. Anything short of that is a failure for them. They have plenty of line-up to absorb the loss of Lux (and Pages isn't contributing anything to the big league team). They have prospects to replace those guys long term and, if they don't, they have all the money in the world to replace them in the off-season. Lux hits 9th in their order and isn't key to them winning the world series and the Reds will be sending Drury to replace him short term.

What they don't have is the best pitcher on the market who could go to one of the teams they are competing with to shut them down in the play-offs or World series. Adding Castillo is much more key to LA winning this year and next year than anything Lux or Paqes will do for them and LA has plenty of resources to replace anything they trade away. Castillo is the scarce commodity in this deal at this time. That's my price. IF they counter with another top prospect in place of Lux while the Reds send Drury elsewhere, I'd probably settle for that if some one else doesn't offer something better. Still, I start the conversation with Lux, Pages and an arm for Castillo and Drury while making it clear that I'd be perfectly happy to trade him to somebody else.

The Dodgers don’t give away value. Your trade gives away value. It is a non-starter (pun intended). Baseball Trade Values have Lux and Castillo with similar trade values. The Dodgers aren’t throwing in Pages for the fun of it. The Dodgers aren’t desperate, they will get Buehler back in September.

[Kc61]

Padres get:

Luis Castillo

Reds get:

Robert Hassell III
Robert Gasser

Who says no?

Maybe both teams say no. The Pads have excellent pitching, I think they’ll focus on other needs. I don’t see them selling the farm for Castillo.

I was interested in Kyle Harrison of the Giants, but I don’t see them selling the farm either. The Giants are barely in the wild card race and I doubt they make such a move.

In addition to the Dodgers and Yankees, I think the Mets, Red Sox, Twins, Jays, maybe even Tampa are good partners. Assuming Tampa goes out of character for a deal.

The Cards would be a good candidate but I don’t see Reds going there. Indians too but they seem in cheap mode, and doing well with it.