Reds Trade Rumor Discussion

[mth123]

The Dodgers don’t give away value. Your trade gives away value. It is a non-starter (pun intended). Baseball Trade Values have Lux and Castillo with similar trade values. The Dodgers aren’t throwing in Pages for the fun of it. The Dodgers aren’t desperate they will get Buehler back in September.

Lux trade value is mostly coming from future control. Castillo has a lot more value in 2022 and probably 2023. It depends on how motivated the Dodgers are to win this year. Castillo is a top arm pitching well right now, not a future hope. I just don't see LA putting as much value on Future control when they can replace Lux over the winter by paying for whoever they want. The Dodgers will be vastly improved with Castillo and maybe the bigger thing is they won't have to face him in the post-season pitching for the Yankees or Red Sox.

I just don't see them prioritizing their number 9 hitter and a minor leaguer over a starting pitcher of Castillo's caliber. Especially if you include a guy with an .850 OPS to replace Lux. If I thought the Reds had any chance of signing Castillo, I wouldn't trade him for Lux and Pages.

[Kc61]

Lux trade value is mostly coming from future control. Castillo has a lot more value in 2022 and probably 2023. It depends on how motivated the Dodgers are to win this year. Castillo is a top arm pitching well right now, not a future hope. I just don't see LA putting as much value on Future control when they can replace Lux over the winter by paying for whoever they want. The Dodgers will be vastly improved with Castillo and maybe the bigger thing is they won't have to face him in the post-season pitching for the Yankees or Red Sox.

I just don't see them prioritizing their number 9 hitter and a minor leaguer over a starting pitcher of Castillo's caliber. Especially if you include a guy with an .850 OPS to replace Lux. If I thought the Reds had any chance of signing Castillo, I wouldn't trade him for Lux and Pages.

Value is value. Dodgers don’t tend to give it away. When they deal with the Reds, the Dodgers usually extract value. Not the other way around. So I don’t see this happening, but we’ll find out.

[Tony Cloninger]

Ask the Padres for Eguy Rosario. They clearly can’t hit very well either.

[Coopdaddy67]

Padres get:

Luis Castillo

Reds get:

Robert Hassell III
Robert Gasser

Who says no?

The Padres aren't desperate like some other teams, so they would say no. That being said, so should the Reds.

Looking at the Berrios deal, the fact that Castillo is the best SP on the market and the second option has shoulder soreness, the Reds should be demanding Hassell, Wood and a 3rd piece in the 10-20 range.

Scrolling down their list, I'm good with Jagger Haynes solely because of his name. Coming back from TJ surgery? Don't care, name rocks.

[mth123]

Value is value. Dodgers don’t tend to give it away. When they deal with the Reds, the Dodgers usually extract value. Not the other way around. So I don’t see this happening, but we’ll find out.

That's because the reds suck at this. Go in asking for what you want. They aren't going to get high value by letting the Dodgers dictate teh terms again.

[Wayne Krivsky]

That's because the reds suck at this. Go in asking for what you want. They aren't going to get high value by letting the Dodgers dictate teh terms again.

Agreed. The Reds have the ability to walk away plus the Reds should have several suitors for Castillo. Absolutely no excuse for the Reds to mess this up. For once the Reds actually hold the cards.

If they package Castillo with Moose and lessen his value I'll have lost the last ounce of respect for this ownership group that I have now. If Krall accepts a lesser package and completely pulls off a Cueto/Frazier/Chapman type deal I'm off the Krall bandwagon. An 8th grader could get back an OK haul for Castillo given this years trade market.

[TRF]

Here is my suggestion, part of it made more than once.

Angels get Castillo

Reds get Adell, Ky Bush and Randy Dejesus. Angels system isn't fantastic, but Adell has Buxton upside. And they keep jerking him around. deal for him and start him in CF the rest of the year.

Now as for Moose, may as well keep him. If he rebounds at all, maybe you move him after the season and eat half his remaining contract. Best you can hope for.

[Tuff Nut]

A couple ideas, and these are just examples, so don't shoot me. Other pieces may work, as well as other teams. Both examples have the acquiring Taking BOTH Castillo and Mahle, as well as Barreo.

Padres deal, Gore,Abrams, E. Rosario, plus a lotto ticket or 2...

Dodgers deal Gonsolin, Lux, either Vargas or Pages, plus a lotto ticket.

Deals help the acquiring team with 2 quality starters and a likely change of scenery top 50ish prospect
Reds with a starter that is rotation ready, and IF starter, and help on its way.


Just spitballing a couple out of the box ideas.

[klw]

Barrero is not a change of scenery guy. He is coming off a serious surgery on his hand and had little ST. Give him time and he comes around.

Otherwise I would say Padres say no, Reds say no to LA

[Tuff Nut]

Barrero is not a change of scenery guy. He is coming off a serious surgery on his hand and had little ST. Give him time and he comes around.

Otherwise I would say Padres say no, Reds say no to LA

Well as for the Padre deal, I was looking at it as an Abrams for Barrero...Both seem to be struggling, and he might have lost his shine... Abrams is blocked also..like I said was throwing out some outta box ideas.. I am good with LA having to add more..seems like a deal tjat could really push the Reds forward.

[REDREAD]

I’d simply ask for one example of a guy acquired in a trade that we pinned our hopes to (“couldn’t miss”) that turned into a pile of ashes.

Rather they accumulate B/C grade guys (who history says some of them will pan out!) that go on to fail.

I can’t think of one guy received who I thought had the quote “promise of stardom.”

Probably the best example is when the Reds got Volquez for Josh Hamilton
A long time ago, but Rob Bell was hyped by the Reds and a lot of fans understandably bought into it.
Drew Henson was hyped up.
The three pitchers we got for Ceuto were hyped up.
I think it's just part of being a fan to think whenever a star is sent off, the prospects coming back are worth it.
We've seen it countless times on this board. Even when the trade is a bust, people defend the trade years later saying "Well, based on what we know at the time, it was a great trade for the
Reds, it just didn't work out".
Now Kal, you are not as excitable, I am not saying that you considered any of these guys future saviors, but many do, and the Reds often hype them up.

Another good example.. when the Reds traded for Majewski, they got an A ball pitcher, when the Maj trade flopped, that kid had a hot streak in the minors, and then the writers stirred up "The Reds might still win the Majewski trade, look how great this kid is"

The front office and the media knows that Reds fans are desperate to hear good news about a prospect and will believe it.

[InsaneinthBrame]

Here is my suggestion, part of it made more than once.

Angels get Castillo

Reds get Adell, Ky Bush and Randy Dejesus. Angels system isn't fantastic, but Adell has Buxton upside. And they keep jerking him around. deal for him and start him in CF the rest of the year.

Now as for Moose, may as well keep him. If he rebounds at all, maybe you move him after the season and eat half his remaining contract. Best you can hope for.

I can not believe you just compared Jo Adell to Buxton. The only thing they have in common is power.

Buxton was way better at the same age as a hitter 25%k rate in AAA and 20% in minors Adell 31% AAA and 27% minors total. That is a huge gap in ability to make contact. Also his walk rates were higher.

Buxton is an outstanding CFer and very good base runner. Adell is a poor left fielder and poor baserunner

Adell is closer to Joey Gallo as his upside

[Kc61]

That's because the reds suck at this. Go in asking for what you want. They aren't going to get high value by letting the Dodgers dictate teh terms again.

The Reds lose trades because they usually have a weak hand. They usually want to dump salary. Everyone knows it. It has little or nothing to do with negotiating tactics. Good franchises know the situation and don’t overpay.

The Castillo and Mahle situations are in this mode. Everyone knows that eventually - now or later - they will be moved or will just walk away from the Reds. These cards are on the table.

Castillo should nevertheless fetch a Berrios type return, hopefully. He has real value. But Castillo isn’t Max Scherzer in his prime. His post-season track record is slight. Some of the proposals I’ve seen are unrealistic.

[TRF]

I can not believe you just compared Jo Adell to Buxton. The only thing they have in common is power.

Buxton was way better at the same age as a hitter 25%k rate in AAA and 20% in minors Adell 31% AAA and 27% minors total. That is a huge gap in ability to make contact. Also his walk rates were higher.

Buxton is an outstanding CFer and very good base runner. Adell is a poor left fielder and poor baserunner

Adell is closer to Joey Gallo as his upside

I said that's his upside because it is his upside. He's a phenomenal athlete, a natural CF. They even discussed moving Trout to RF to make room for him. The fanbase is crying out for a winner because Trout is so good and can't even sniff the post season. I'd make the deal 10 times out of 10 if I'm the Reds FO.

[Wonderful Monds]

Here is my suggestion, part of it made more than once.

Angels get Castillo

Reds get Adell, Ky Bush and Randy Dejesus. Angels system isn't fantastic, but Adell has Buxton upside. And they keep jerking him around. deal for him and start him in CF the rest of the year.

Now as for Moose, may as well keep him. If he rebounds at all, maybe you move him after the season and eat half his remaining contract. Best you can hope for.

I would like to pick up Adell, but not for Castillo. You could probably get him for Mahle + Drury tbh.