Reds Trade Rumor Discussion

[WrongVerb]

It's worth remembering that the original rumor said the Reds are willing to send significant cash along with Moose's contract.

[LeatherPants]

It's worth remembering that the original rumor said the Reds are willing to send significant cash along with Moose's contract.

If the other team has to take any of his contract it’s going to hurt the return.

[Kc61]

and when they attach Moose to Castillo and/or Mahle and they wind up with a payroll under $90 million next year, and they’ve signed a couple stiffs and and Kent Merker out of retirement as their veteran fifth starter, and lose 95 games?

And if they use Moose’s $30 million to sign two good $15 million free agents who boost the team?

Whom they wouldn’t have signed if Moose’s salary wasn’t off-loaded?

[Coopdaddy67]

And if they use Moose’s $30 million to sign two good $15 million free agents who boost the team?

Whom they wouldn’t have signed if Moose’s salary wasn’t off-loaded?

Here's the list of guys that signed for an AAV of around $14-16 mil in 2022: Jon Gray, Raisel Iglesias, Nelson Cruz, Chris Taylor, Kenley Jansen, Anthony Rizzo.

They have a combined WAR of 4.6 and Rizzo accounts for 1.6 of that. (edit: mistakenly left off Eduardo Rodriguez, so it's actually a combined WAR of 4.2)

$30 million doesn't go as far as you think it will. This team isn't a player or two away either.

[Kc61]

Here's the list of guys that signed for an AAV of around $14-16 mil in 2022: Jon Gray, Raisel Iglesias, Nelson Cruz, Chris Taylor, Kenley Jansen, Anthony Rizzo.

They have a combined WAR of 4.6 and Rizzo accounts for 1.6 of that. (edit: mistakenly left off Eduardo Rodriguez, so it's actually a combined WAR of 4.2)

$30 million doesn't go as far as you think it will. This team isn't a player or two away either.

You don’t think Kenley and Raisel in the bullpen would be a dramatic improvement? Over the current Reds’ bullpen?

Every move doesn’t necessarily bring you Mike Trout. But nobody will convince me that the Reds couldn’t use a number of $15 million players.

[Coopdaddy67]

You don’t think Kenley and Raisel in the bullpen would be a dramatic improvement? Over the current Reds’ bullpen?

Every move doesn’t necessarily bring you Mike Trout. But nobody will convince me that the Reds couldn’t use a number of $15 million players.

You could add Jansen and Iglesias to the team right now and the Reds would still suck. They're going to suck even more next year after they trade their two best pitchers.

Besides, the Reds won't spend $15 mil on their entire bullpen, let alone one pitcher.

[LeatherPants]

You don’t think Kenley and Raisel in the bullpen would be a dramatic improvement? Over the current Reds’ bullpen?

Every move doesn’t necessarily bring you Mike Trout. But nobody will convince me that the Reds couldn’t use a number of $15 million players.

Even with Moose on the roster, they can afford a bunch of $15 million players. Once again, they have $44 million of guaranteed contracts on the books in 2023. Take the better prospects.

Do the Reds have to be down to no guarantee money before we should expect them to spend? Because that’s what it looks like.

[Kc61]

You could add Jansen and Iglesias to the team right now and the Reds would still suck. They're going to suck even more next year after they trade their two best pitchers.

Besides, the Reds won't spend $15 mil on their entire bullpen, let alone one pitcher.

Prospects are not the “be all and end all” of building a team. I want the Reds to add from all sources, including prospects, but also free agents and trade acquisitions and International.

Prospects fail too often. They can’t be the whole picture.

If the Reds had another $30 million to spend on free agents, that would be valuable. I believe if Moose’s salary were dumped that would increase the Reds’ off-season spending. Every good addition counts.

[LeatherPants]

It seems clear that you view prospects as the “be all and end all” of building a team. I don’t. I want the Reds to add from all sources, including prospects, but also free agents and trade acquisitions and International.

Prospects fail too often. They can’t be the whole picture.

If the Reds had another $30 million to spend on free agents, that would be valuable. I believe if Moose’s salary were dumped that would increase the Reds’ off-season spending.

I think you’ll get your wish, and they’ll dump Moose and take less for Castillo and/or Mahle, but I think you’re going to be disappointed with what they do with that money.

When next year’s payroll is, at least $18 million less than this season’s (what he’s making next year), the Castellinis are going to be laughing at all of us.

[Kc61]

I think you’ll get your wish, and they’ll dump Moose and take less for Castillo and/or Mahle, but I think you’re going to be disappointed with what they do with that money.

When next year’s payroll is, at least $18 million less than this season’s (what he’s making next year), the Castellinis are going to be laughing at all of us.

Well, for the tenth time, I don’t want Reds to pair Moose with Castillo. That is not my wish.

But whatever they do, I expect Reds to spend more next off-season to placate fans who are becoming alienated. What the specific numbers will be, nobody knows, probably even the Reds.

[mth123]

It seems clear that you view prospects as the “be all and end all” of building a team. I don’t. I want the Reds to add from all sources, including prospects, but also free agents and trade acquisitions and International.

Prospects fail too often. They can’t be the whole picture.

If the Reds had another $30 million to spend on free agents, that would be valuable. I believe if Moose’s salary were dumped that would increase the Reds’ off-season spending.

I generally think that prospects are like lotto tickets, but the Reds have torn it down pretty much to the nubs and when Castillo and Mahle are gone, they'll basically be running a minor league team out there every day. Where I think the payflex/buy players plan fails is you simply won't get the kind of guys needed for even $15 Million per year. That's basically a two WAR non-star starting caliber player. The collective wisdom of major league baseball is pretty significant. Guys like that will have multiple offers in those kind of price ranges. The Reds will need to significantly outbid the competition to for a guy to come to this bare bones organization and if they do it will be Moose/Shogo all over again. Baseball won't allow the Reds to sign reasonably priced winning players. Somebody else with a more desirable situation will get those guys. It will either be significantly overpriced winning players - in which case they won't be able to sign enough of them to matter - or it will be more Shogo types. Guys the Rest of baseball knows are not starting caliber guys and they allow they Reds to win what seems a reasonably priced bid for guys who just aren't all that good. If other teams thought Shogo was a starting caliber CF, they would have never let the Reds outbid them at $7 Million per year. The same thing will happen now.

For the Reds to compete for FA, they first need to put a promising core in place and make Cincinnati an attractive option for a FA to choose. That's why you need the best prospects at this point. Had Barrero and Senzel stepped up, Lodolo stayed healthy and established himself, Greene actually pitch like people act like he pitches, then some vets may see themselves as a missing piece to a promising core. Instead the Reds have gone the other way. Lodolo was injured (again) Greene's ERA is near 6, Senzel and Barrero don't look like answers any time soon and even a guy like India has morphed back into a question mark with an OPS below .600 on the 4th of July. The Reds can add some decent vets along the lines of Farmer and Drury and maybe get a comeback type for a little coin along the lines of Pham again, but the better players won't take the reds money unless it blows everyone else in baseball out of the water. Freeing up Moose money won't add much veteran talent, but it will serve to reduce the talent level of the younger players than Reds can acquire.

Seems like a shortcut that just won't work right now.

[LeatherPants]

Lest we forget:

“We’re trying to eliminate peaks and valleys, that’s where we need to go,” Krall said. “We need to figure out how to continue to build through our player pipeline, player development and scouting. That’s got to be the base of everything we do. If that’s the base, that’s how we’ll build long-term success and sustainable success.”

[Kc61]

I generally think that prospects are like lotto tickets, but the Reds have torn it down pretty much to the nubs and when Castillo and Mahle are gone, they'll basically be running a minor league team out there every day. Where I think the payflex/buy players plan fails is you simply won't get the kind of guys needed for even $15 Million per year. That's basically a two WAR non-star starting caliber player. The collective wisdom of major league baseball is pretty significant. Guys like that will have multiple offers in those kind of price ranges. The Reds will need to significantly outbid the competition to for a guy to come to this bare bones organization and if they do it will be Moose/Shogo all over again. Baseball won't allow the Reds to sign reasonably priced winning players. Somebody else with a more desirable situation will get those guys. It will either be significantly overpriced winning players - in which case they won't be able to sign enough of them to matter - or it will be more Shogo types. Guys the Rest of baseball knows are not starting caliber guys and they allow they Reds to win what seems a reasonably priced bid for guys who just aren't all that good. If other teams thought Shogo was a starting caliber CF, they would have never let the Reds outbid them at $7 Million per year. The same thing will happen now.

For the Reds to compete for FA, they first need to put a promising core in place and make Cincinnati an attractive option for a FA to choose. That's why you need the best prospects at this point. Had Barrero and Senzel stepped up, Lodolo stayed healthy and established himself, Greene actually pitch like people act like he pitches, then some vets may see themselves as a missing piece to a promising core. Instead the Reds have gone the other way. Lodolo was injured (again) Greene's ERA is near 6, Senzel and Barrero don't look like answers any time soon and even a guy like India has morphed back into a question mark with an OPS below .600 on the 4th of July. The Reds can add some decent vets along the lines of Farmer and Drury and maybe get a comeback type for a little coin along the lines of Pham again, but the better players won't take the reds money unless it blows everyone else in baseball out of the water. Freeing up Moose money won't add much veteran talent, but it will serve to reduce the talent level of the younger players than Reds can acquire.

Seems like a shortcut that just won't work right now.

After 2015-18 the Reds were criticized for not signing veterans during their rebuild. That criticism was valid.

Reds should build through every method of adding players.

I don’t agree that they won’t attract good veteran players. They need to be wise in their acquisitions and the deals they offer.

Having said that, if they can get top flight prospects for Castillo, sure, do so.

[Old school 1983]

Lest we forget:

Nowhere does that say they won’t spend money on outside players. Just that they want to build a core with mostly internal guys. You’re reading way more into that than what’s there. Also, for someone who was so adamant that the FO is full of liars, I’m not sure why or how you’re putting any credence into anything they say.

[schroomytunes]

I hope they do and would definitely ask for more for the reasons you cite. But I definitely see reason they wouldn't get more than Minnesota got for Berrios. Berrios was 2 years younger with no injury history to speak of and has more all-star appearances than Castillo (2 to 1). Castillo also has a high-ish road ERA (which seems strange considering his home ballpark). I do think Castillo is the superior pitcher but teams will absolutely use his shoulder, age and road ERA to justify their lower offers.

I actually think a trade with the Dodgers could work for both parties involved. The Dodgers have a nice farm system and can move solid prospects to make a run at the Yankees. So with that:

Reds Trade- Luis Castillo

Dodgers Trade:

1) Miguel Vargas-(AAA) 1b/3b- MLB #78 prospect Dodgers #5

2) Ryan Pepiot-(MLB) SP- MLB #84 prospect Dodgers #6

3) Michael Grove-(MLB) RP/SP Dodgers #23 prospect

- Pepiot and Grove move to the Pitching staff immediately, while Vargas will compete for a spot in 23. Seems like a solid trade as we net 2 solid top prospects that can help in 22/23.