Draft Discussion

[Bourgeois Zee]

Some questions for those interested:

- Who is, in your opinion, most likely to make the show first?

- Beyond Collier, who is most likely to provide the most WAR in his MLB career?

- Who are you excited to see?

- Who was an overdraft, in your opinion?

- What trend do you like or dislike in Red drafting strategy?

[Bourgeois Zee]

My answers:

- I think 6th rounder Zach Maxwell is the most likely to arrive first in Cincinnati. I think they'll end up putting him in the pen, and that'll be his ticket to a fairly meteoric rise. He has an upper 90s fastball and a very good slider with high spin rates right now-- that's typically enough stuff to be an adequate arm. (And boy, could the Reds use adequate arms in the pen.) I could see him pitching in Cincinnati as early as next year. (Much of this is due to the fact that Cincinnati should have quite a few openings on the 40-man roster-- over the past few years, they've been hamstrung in that departmnet.) I also considered Logan Tanner and Cade Hunter-- the two Power 5 catchers they drafted-- but believe neither will be able to move quickly due to the presence of other catchers already in que above them (Nelson, Vellojin, even Chuckie Robinson). Also thought about Kenya Huggins and Bryce Hubbart, but think both will start (and work on developing a consistent third pitch/ change-up) to begin their careers. That'll end up slowing down their possible rise. Trey Braithwhite is another relief arm that might move really, really fast.

- I really like Sal Stewart's bat, but his position is probably going to end up being 1B or DH. That kills WAR. So I'm going out on a major limb and picking SP Rob Hensey. He's a tall LH with room to grow. He already has four pitches and above average control. The Reds have shown a propensity to improve pitcher spin rates/ stuff over the last couple of seasons-- especially the stuff of guys from smaller programs. I think Hensey has the most room to grow while also having a high floor.

- I'm most excited to see Stewart hit and Kenya Huggins learn how to pitch. Both have pretty massive upside.

- Lots of overdrafts in these selections, most of them understandable. (Choosing Collier meant having to readjust BPA in lower rounds, I think.) I don't understand drafting two collegiate catchers with below average hit tools. I don't understand drafting Faltine from Texas, who K's about every third time he comes to the plate. I'd have chosen someone besides Logan Tanner and think his "type"-- good glove, good with pitchers, good power, bad hit tool-- fail so often in the minor leagues that it makes little sense to waste a high pick on the gamble. (That said, I'm definitely a hit tool guy.)

- The Reds have chosen guys who've slipped out of the top 10 in the last two drafts. That should eventually pay off in at least one really good player. I love Collier as a prospect-- youth, hit tool, good defensive tools, and a solid approach. That's similar to McLain's scouting report last year. Well-rounded ball players? Yes, please. I like that they're gambling on spin rates too, especially later in the draft. But the thing I like best over the past couple of drafts is leaning into Junior College prospects and Cape Cod success stories.

[RED VAN HOT]

I'll play.

First to get to the majors- I'll take Tanner Logan as back-up catcher. His D is nearly ready and he has shown power in the past, things you want in a back-up. Dayton catcher Vellojin may be his strongest competition to get to the majors first at catcher. Maxwell seems like a project to me. I think he stays in Goodyear in 22 and has a Boyle track to the ML pen.

Best career WAR- I'll take Stewart. Your point about 1B/DH being a tough comparison for WAR notwithstanding, it is hard to predict career WAR except on the basis of longevity. Stewart seems to have a bat most likely to stick around. Hubbart, a LHP with a good four pitch mix could be around for some time in a bullpen.

Most excited to see- Trey Faltine. The profile is purely defensive as a back-up middle infielder. However, my guess is that the Reds saw something they believed they could fix to improve his hitting. Also, interested to see what they can do with Maxwell.

Most over drafted- Justin Boyd doesn't seem to profile well. Good speed, but not elite. Not enough power for a corner. My guess is that the Reds try to develop more power. I see him as a Chris Heisey type outfielder which I guess is not bad for a CBB pick. Still, I think at this spot you draft for someone with a profile and upside.

I liked several things about the Reds draft. First, 15 of 22 were pitchers. It shows confidence in their ability to develop pitchers. Also, they are going to need to have s strong pitching pipeline to stay in contention. They seemed to draft with system strengths in mind. They avoided power over contact. Finally, with the number 11 pick they drafted insurance in case they failed to sign Collier. The idea was that they could buy Brutti out of his college commitment in the event that Collier turned down an over slot deal.

[Bourgeois Zee]

They avoided power over contact. Finally, with the number 11 pick they drafted insurance in case they failed to sign Collier. The idea was that they could buy Brutti out of his college commitment in the event that Collier turned down an over slot deal.

Good points, both.

I'd love to see the Reds focus far more on hit tools, but I'll certainly take a better mix than they showed for multiple seasons under Williams.

I'm hoping Brutti will sign even so. Love his arm and upside, particularly as a cold weather HS prospect.

[WrongVerb]

np

[PuffyPig]

Finally, with the number 11 pick they drafted insurance in case they failed to sign Collier. The idea was that they could buy Brutti out of his college commitment in the event that Collier turned down an over slot deal.

I'm pretty sure they had a pre-draft deal with Collier, as the $5M was floated right after they drafted him, IIRC.