Teenage Wasteland (Or, Y'know, It's Exact Opposite)

[Bourgeois Zee]

One way to gauge a farm's health is to see what type of All-Prospect team you could make up of its players of a specific age. Teenagers are often extremely high variance by their very nature, but they sure are fun to dream on. These guys have a long, long way to go-- most of them are in Arizona. But the upside for Cincinnati's pipeline (as of now) seems relatively bright.

C Juan Garcia
The weakest position among the entirety of the group, Garcia is probably a low PA mirage similar to Andruw Salcedo last season. But so far, he's hit .333/ .433/ .500 in Arizona as a 19-year-old. He's also thrown out 35% of would-be base stealers, which is an excellent mark in Complex Ball. There are seemingly scores of catchers ahead of him-- Mat Nelson, Daniel Vellojin, Chuckie Robinson, the perpetually-injured Jackson Miller, and the newly-drafted Logan Tanner and Hunter Cade, not to mention would-be non-prospects who are hitting well, like James Free and Michael Trautwein. Even Wilfred Astudillo has some interesting peripherals. That's a whole jumble of mediocre suspects-- it's no wonder that the Reds seem to be perpetually on the lookout for guys who can wear the tools of ignorance. It's a good thing Tyler Stephenson is young. (And really bad that he's always hurt.)

1B Sal Stewart
Recent draftee apparently has above average hit and power tools and a discerning eye at the plate. Less than 10 Ks on the HS season bodes well. He'll definitely need to hit, as he's limited to the corners (at best) and is almost assuredly going to settle at 1B. Yassel Pino is 20

2B Carlos Jorge
His BA this season isn't quite as good as last season (.264), but the OBP is still over .400 and the OPS is stil over .900. And did I mention his SBs? 16 in 20 attempts in only 113 PAs. Jorge has hit the ball with authority and run wild when he got on all season. He's also still 18 and has a 143 wRC+ in the ACL, a league wherein he's nearly two years younger than league average.

3B Cam Collier, Braylin Minier
Collier's the gem of the 2022 class. A sweet LH stroke and premium defensive acumen at the hot corner sounds like a sweet prospect. He's probably the second-best prospect in the system behind 20-year-old SS Elly De La Cruz.

SS Leonardo Balcazar
With De La Cruz a 20-year-old, Balcazar gets the nod. He became the starting SS over other SS prospects Minier and Jorge, so he looks like the real deal defensively. .310/ .407/ .490/ .897 after a remarkably similar line last year in the DSL seems to auger well for offensive firepower moving forward. That's a 139 wRC+ for those keeping score at home. At SS. Yes, please.

LF Donovan Antonia, Esmith Pineda
Couldn't pick here, which would seem to be a pleasant problem. Pineda is a 17-year-old who was a Little League star for Panama. He's been dominant in a super small amount of ABs. (Injuries are an issue.) Antonia is another tiny PA phenom. .271/ .395/ .543/ .938 is pretty tasty as either a LF or a 3B (his other position). Nearly as many BBs as Ks is a good sign. So are the 11 EBH in just 87 PAs.

CF Jay Allen, Malvin Valdez
Allen might not belong here. If you glance at his offensive numbers, you might assume they are relatively poor. (His OBP is still more than acceptable, at .370.) But he's in the Florida State League, so they actually work out to a 114 wRC+. The peripheral numbers are sneaky solid-- the 23% K rate is good and the 14% BB rate is exceptional. What's a bit more concerning is his lack of pop. According to fangraphs, he's got a 55 power tool. He's not tapped into that this season. Then again, Florida League saps power. He might have quite a bit more show up in Dayton. Valdez, meanwhile, has nearly the same wRC+ (116), but his numbers are far different: .262/ .398/ .345. He's also almost exactly a year younger than Allen. Neither, at this point, looks like he might be an All-Star at this point, but both have upside to explode.

RF Yerlin Confidan, Carlos Sanchez
This is perhaps the best sneaky good position in the far-off teen league ladder. Confidan was on his way to a monster season in low A as a teenager when he got hurt. .280/ .368/ .440 with a 134 wRC+ is outstanding. But it's only 57 PAs-- he's lost nearly an entire season. Carlos Sanchez has stepped into that void. All he's done is start his professional career with 33 straight games wherein he's gotten on base. More BBs than Ks, 9 SBs, a 195 wRC+-- he's been nothing but dominant. But it's only been 33 games.

UT Johnny Ascanio
.354/ .429/ .438 and a 140 wRC+ deserves a mention somewhere. It might sound like a small sample, but he did largely the same thing last season in the DSL. The kid can, in short, hit. He can also play both middle infield positions. Seems like exactly the kind of prospect who might prosper as a hit-first middle infield guy.

SP Chase Petty
Petty be the best starting pitcher prospect in the system. (Connor Phillips might disagree.) That 0.7 HR rate could well mean he's throwing a really heavy ground ball. A 60% ground ball rate would seem to support that as well. Those ground ball tendencies are like gold. And it's not like he's a one-trick pony. Petty's carrying an 8.31 K rate too. Three above average pitches, according to Fangraphs and a 3.18 BB rate auger well for the future as well.

[texasdave]

Carlos Sanchez isn't even close to reaching 20 either. He is a 17-year-old out of Venezuela who is currently sporting a league-leading .558 OBP.

[RED VAN HOT]

Nice post. ACL and DSL don't get that much attention. Doug reports on them well. I can't remember when the Reds have had this many players with potential at those levels. Post season top 100 is unlikely, but I believe several besides Collier and Stewart will crack the Reds top 30. Balcazar and Sanchez look particularly strong to me.

[MikeS21]

Ariel Almonte is another 18 year old OF to keep an eye on.

[Bourgeois Zee]

Post season top 100 is unlikely, but I believe several besides Collier and Stewart will crack the Reds top 30. Balcazar and Sanchez look particularly strong to me.

That's a completely different post, but I agree wholeheartedly.

Collier's obviously a top 10 guy. Petty probably is.

Beyond that, I'd have Jorge, Balcazar, Stewart, Allen, Ascanio, and Valdez there. Sanchez, Ascanio and Pineda might get there as well.

Others who might make the top 30 would include Ricardo Cabrera, who was a big-time signing this off-season, and Ariel Almonte, (as Mike said), another relatively high-profile signee. Braylin Minier might also be of interest.

That'd end up as at least 10 of the top 30, which makes some sense, and as much as half of it, which seems excessive. Then again, perhaps it's not. We'll certainly see what happens over the course of the next few seasons.

[icehole3]

Great post. 2 things I slightly disagree on. Saw both Petty and Jay Allen 3-4 times. Petty I'd put behind Boyle, Phillips, Bonnin IMHO. Allen maybe he's just a smart player realizing how hard it is to hit in that league. He just swings for line drives from what I saw doesn't swing for long balls like a Siani. Once again IMHO.

[Mitri]

Great post. 2 things I slightly disagree on. Saw both Petty and Jay Allen 3-4 times. Petty I'd put behind Boyle, Phillips, Bonnin IMHO. Allen maybe he's just a smart player realizing how hard it is to hit in that league. He just swings for line drives from what I saw doesn't swing for long balls like a Siani. Once again IMHO.

This is an all-teenager list.

In regard to Allen, I’m hesitant to gauge his power until he reaches Dayton. For now, his peripherals look okay and he’s likely still a lock to stick in CF, so the future looks good. A year from now we’ll have a much better idea of who he is.

That trade for Petty is looking pretty savvy right now. I know he’s far away from the show but I like to see them taking shots at teenagers here and there. High risk, but the rewards can really pay off.

I am encouraged by Cabrera’s play so far, especially of late. Hopefully the power comes with age.

Nice to see bat-first guys like Collier and Stewart added to Allen/Petty. Would love to see a guy like Jasson Dominguez added to this group in the next week, too.

[icehole3]

This is an all-teenager list.

In regard to Allen, I’m hesitant to gauge his power until he reaches Dayton. For now, his peripherals look okay and he’s likely still a lock to stick in CF, so the future looks good. A year from now we’ll have a much better idea of who he is.

That trade for Petty is looking pretty savvy right now. I know he’s far away from the show but I like to see them taking shots at teenagers here and there. High risk, but the rewards can really pay off.

I am encouraged by Cabrera’s play so far, especially of late. Hopefully the power comes with age.

Nice to see bat-first guys like Collier and Stewart added to Allen/Petty. Would love to see a guy like Jasson Dominguez added to this group in the next week, too.

I realize that, I was responding to this quote.
"Petty be the best starting pitcher prospect in the system."

[Reds Freak]

Speaking of Petty, he's headed to Dayton. Pretty aggressive promotion for the 19 year old. 65 IP, 55 H, 23 BB, 60 K, 3.18 ERA with a .234 OBA with the Tugas.

[Bourgeois Zee]

I realize that, I was responding to this quote.
"Petty be the best starting pitcher prospect in the system."

There was supposed to be a "might" in front of that "be."

That said, I'm unsuire which one of Connor Phillips or Chase Petty I'd rather have, at this point. I'd rather have either than Brandon Williamson.

Fwiw, MLB has Petty as the second-best pitcher in the organization right now.

[icehole3]

There was supposed to be a "might" in front of that "be."

That said, I'm unsuire which one of Connor Phillips or Chase Petty I'd rather have, at this point. I'd rather have either than Brandon Williamson.

Fwiw, MLB has Petty as the second-best pitcher in the organization right now.

I understand now. Thanks for clearing that up.

[Bourgeois Zee]

Should have waited a week or so before writing this.

Edwin Arroyo, Hector Rodriguez, and Jose Acuna could all end up in Cincinnati's top 30 prospects list at the end of the season. (Both Rodriguez and Acuna would have to continue to play very well.)

[camisadelgolf]

2026 (or later), here we come.

[MikeS21]

Right now, the Reds need to take some of the money they are saving by trading off every player making over minimum wage, and invest it in development. There seems to be a boatload of talent in the farm system, and now the goal should be to have these young guys progress to the next level. Not talking about growing superstars, but simply growing solid players who will become average major league players.

Another point is that with all the SS prospects, it appears that some position changes are in order. Folks like McLain and Barrero are either moving to 2B or to the OF. If ELDC keeps growing, he may end up at 1B.

[Benihana]

I see Sal Stewart as a teenage Yonder Alonso. Body type, scouting report, etc. Let's hope he has an even better big league career, and turns out more like prospect Yonder Alonso was supposed to be.