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Thread: The futility thread.. 100, 102 loss watch

  1. #301
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    Re: The futility thread.. 100, 102 loss watch

    Quote Originally Posted by CaiGuy View Post
    For one, some vets can help protect the younger players even if it is a "rebuilding year" (which I hate, they need to start "building" immediately, but I digress).

    For example, vet starters can soak up innings and take the pressure of off pushing the young guys too hard. Some middle relievers can keep you from burning-out Diaz. Some solid defenders can avoid prolonging innings and more pitches for young pitchers. Vets also help you avoid rushing minor leaguers through their development just to plug a hole on the MLB roster.

    And most importantly, you don't avoid 99 wins until you start adding major leaguers.

    But if I were in charge, I would be eying 2024 as a contending year (at the lastest). So that means some 2-3 year additions would be my priority.
    None of this justifies spending $20 million on a one year starter when rebuilding. You can protect and help young pitchers with a less expensive vet. You can avoid 99 wins with a longer-term pitcher. It makes no sense to spend $20 million for one player in a rebuilding year when he can then just walk away as the season ends. It’s a waste.
    Last edited by Kc61; 10-04-2022 at 04:49 PM.


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  3. #302
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    Re: The futility thread.. 100, 102 loss watch

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    For reference, here's the list of FA SP making $10M+ this year (not counting player options). Which guy(s) A) Do you want to pay full freight for and B) Will sign with the Reds? Obviously this isn't a comprehensive list of guys who could fill that 'solid proven vet' role, but it paints a picture. The who probably best strikes the balance we'd be going for is, ironically enough, Sonny Gray.

    Code:
    PLAYER		'23 Age	     '22 SALARY		'22 fWAR
    Bauer		32		$35,333,334		N/A
    Price		37		$32,000,000		0.1
    deGrom		35		$30,500,000		2.2
    Sale		34		$27,500,000		0.2
    Verlander	40		$25,000,000		5.8
    Rodon		30		$22,500,000		6.2
    Syndergaard	30		$21,000,000		2.2
    Bassitt		34		$19,000,000		2.7
    Wainwright	41		$17,500,000		2.8
    Eovaldi		33		$17,000,000		0.8
    Kershaw		35		$17,000,000		3.7
    Nola		30		$16,000,000		6.3
    Severino	29		$15,000,000		1.4
    Greinke		39		$13,000,000		1.8
    Minor		35		$13,000,000	       -0.4
    Gray		33		$12,700,000		2.4
    Carrasco	36		$12,000,000		2.4
    Miley		36		$10,000,000		0.5
    Archer		34		$10,000,000		0.5
    Very interesting.

    So out of 19 $10MM pitchers, and assuming $5.4MM/WAR as a market value, there are four contracts in the black, three pretty much neutral, eleven in the red and one incomplete. Those are long odds.

    Now, it's not completely fair - WAR is an incomplete value for the range of teams that need star starters for the postseason.

    The Reds signed three of those nineteen contracts, two in the red and one neutral.

  4. #303
    Future Fame of Holler WildcatFan's Avatar
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    Re: The futility thread.. 100, 102 loss watch

    Quote Originally Posted by backbencher View Post
    Very interesting.

    So out of 19 $10MM pitchers, and assuming $5.4MM/WAR as a market value, there are four contracts in the black, three pretty much neutral, eleven in the red and one incomplete. Those are long odds.

    Now, it's not completely fair - WAR is an incomplete value for the range of teams that need star starters for the postseason.

    The Reds signed three of those nineteen contracts, two in the red and one neutral.
    I can't believe I'm indulging this conversation.

    Here's the entire list of $10m starting pitchers and their WAR:

    Scherzer, Max
    5.3
    $43,333,333

    Cole, Gerrit
    2.4
    $36,000,000

    Strasburg, Stephen
    -0.3
    $32,205,854

    Bauer, Trevor
    n/a
    $32,000,000

    deGrom, Jacob
    1.4
    $27,257,728

    Wheeler, Zack
    5.1
    $26,000,000

    Verlander, Justin
    5.5
    $25,000,000

    Stroman, Marcus
    2.6
    $25,000,000

    Syndergaard, Noah
    0.6
    $21,000,000

    Gausman, Kevin
    3.1
    $21,000,000

    Darvish, Yu
    4.4
    $20,000,000

    Morton, Charlie
    1.7
    $20,000,000

    Lynn, Lance
    0.7
    $18,500,000

    Wainwright, Adam
    1.8
    $17,500,000

    Mikolas, Miles
    2.4
    $17,000,000

    Eovaldi, Nathan
    1.1
    $17,000,000

    McCullers Jr., Lance
    1.5
    $15,950,000

    Nola, Aaron
    6.0
    $15,500,000

    Gray, Jon
    1.3
    $15,000,000

    Hendricks, Kyle
    0.5
    $14,500,000

    Greinke, Zack
    2.5
    $13,000,000

    DeSclafani, Anthony
    -0.8
    $12,000,000

    Carrasco, Carlos
    1.2
    $12,000,000

    Severino, Luis
    1.6
    $11,500,000

    Marquez, German
    1.5
    $11,300,000

    Berrios, Jose
    -0.5
    $11,000,000

    Gray, Sonny
    2.3
    10,700,000

    27 starters. How many of them would a playoff team in 2022 want in their rotation? Scherzer, Cole, DeGrom, Wheeler, Verlander, Stroman, Lynn, Wainwright, Mikolas, McCullers, Nola, Greinke, Severino, Gray. That's better than 50%. You could add a couple other guys if they weren't hurt (always a risk among pitchers). It's not a crazy stupid risk like some folks around here would have you believe.
    "I never argue with people who say baseball is boring, because baseball is boring. And then, suddenly, it isn't. And that's what makes it great." - Joe Posnanski

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  6. #304
    Winning the Human Race TheBigLebowski's Avatar
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    Re: The futility thread.. 100, 102 loss watch

    These guys are going to choke.

    Down to their last game.
    “The crows seem to be calling my name,” thought Caw.

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    Re: The futility thread.. 100, 102 loss watch

    Quote Originally Posted by TheBigLebowski View Post
    These guys are going to choke.

    Down to their last game.
    They literally just didn't choke though

    And it was magical

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  10. #306
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    Re: The futility thread.. 100, 102 loss watch

    Quote Originally Posted by WildcatFan View Post
    I can't believe I'm indulging this conversation.

    Here's the entire list of $10m starting pitchers and their WAR:

    Scherzer, Max
    5.3
    $43,333,333

    Cole, Gerrit
    2.4
    $36,000,000

    Strasburg, Stephen
    -0.3
    $32,205,854

    Bauer, Trevor
    n/a
    $32,000,000

    deGrom, Jacob
    1.4
    $27,257,728

    Wheeler, Zack
    5.1
    $26,000,000

    Verlander, Justin
    5.5
    $25,000,000

    Stroman, Marcus
    2.6
    $25,000,000

    Syndergaard, Noah
    0.6
    $21,000,000

    Gausman, Kevin
    3.1
    $21,000,000

    Darvish, Yu
    4.4
    $20,000,000

    Morton, Charlie
    1.7
    $20,000,000

    Lynn, Lance
    0.7
    $18,500,000

    Wainwright, Adam
    1.8
    $17,500,000

    Mikolas, Miles
    2.4
    $17,000,000

    Eovaldi, Nathan
    1.1
    $17,000,000

    McCullers Jr., Lance
    1.5
    $15,950,000

    Nola, Aaron
    6.0
    $15,500,000

    Gray, Jon
    1.3
    $15,000,000

    Hendricks, Kyle
    0.5
    $14,500,000

    Greinke, Zack
    2.5
    $13,000,000

    DeSclafani, Anthony
    -0.8
    $12,000,000

    Carrasco, Carlos
    1.2
    $12,000,000

    Severino, Luis
    1.6
    $11,500,000

    Marquez, German
    1.5
    $11,300,000

    Berrios, Jose
    -0.5
    $11,000,000

    Gray, Sonny
    2.3
    10,700,000

    27 starters. How many of them would a playoff team in 2022 want in their rotation? Scherzer, Cole, DeGrom, Wheeler, Verlander, Stroman, Lynn, Wainwright, Mikolas, McCullers, Nola, Greinke, Severino, Gray. That's better than 50%. You could add a couple other guys if they weren't hurt (always a risk among pitchers). It's not a crazy stupid risk like some folks around here would have you believe.
    It doesn’t matter who would you want in a playoff game, what matters is if the pitchers earned their salary, if it ended up paying off for the team to sign them. Of course most of them are guys you would want to start a playoff game, that is why they got paid so much. The question is whether or not it ended up being wise to sign them.

    Using your list, I got around 12-13, depending on how you determine a salary being “worth it.” It’s under 10 if you use a strict dollar per War calculation. That’s way too risky for a team like the Reds to take with their ownership.
    Hoping to change my username to 75769023

  11. #307
    Future Fame of Holler WildcatFan's Avatar
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    Re: The futility thread.. 100, 102 loss watch

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    It doesn’t matter who would you want in a playoff game, what matters is if the pitchers earned their salary, if it ended up paying off for the team to sign them. Of course most of them are guys you would want to start a playoff game, that is why they got paid so much. The question is whether or not it ended up being wise to sign them.

    Using your list, I got around 12-13, depending on how you determine a salary being “worth it.” It’s under 10 if you use a strict dollar per War calculation. That’s way too risky for a team like the Reds to take with their ownership.
    No, it matters who you'd want in a playoff game. That's where pennants come from.
    "I never argue with people who say baseball is boring, because baseball is boring. And then, suddenly, it isn't. And that's what makes it great." - Joe Posnanski

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  13. #308
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    Re: The futility thread.. 100, 102 loss watch

    Quote Originally Posted by WildcatFan View Post
    No, it matters who you'd want in a playoff game. That's where pennants come from.
    Not if they are hurt or aren’t any good in that game. Plus you have to get to the playoffs in the first place. If the pitcher is hurt or in decline, it’s much harder, especially if you are paying him $20M.
    Hoping to change my username to 75769023

  14. #309
    Future Fame of Holler WildcatFan's Avatar
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    Re: The futility thread.. 100, 102 loss watch

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Not if they are hurt or aren’t any good in that game. Plus you have to get to the playoffs in the first place. If the pitcher is hurt or in decline, it’s much harder, especially if you are paying him $20M.
    No idea what this means.
    "I never argue with people who say baseball is boring, because baseball is boring. And then, suddenly, it isn't. And that's what makes it great." - Joe Posnanski

  15. #310
    Winning is fun. RiverRat13's Avatar
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    The futility thread.. 100, 102 loss watch

    Signing guys who have shown the ability to have success in the majors is way too risky. The only sure way to get production is to trade known quantities for 19 year old players in A ball.

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  17. #311
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    Re: The futility thread.. 100, 102 loss watch

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou View Post
    They literally just didn't choke though

    And it was magical
    I like it when the Reds win, it makes me feel good.
    Last edited by Ron Madden; 10-04-2022 at 10:48 PM.

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    I rig polls REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: The futility thread.. 100, 102 loss watch

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    For reference, here's the list of FA SP making $10M+ this year (not counting player options). Which guy(s) A) Do you want to pay full freight for and B) Will sign with the Reds? Obviously this isn't a comprehensive list of guys who could fill that 'solid proven vet' role, but it paints a picture. The who probably best strikes the balance we'd be going for is, ironically enough, Sonny Gray.
    Good list, that's why I wanted Castillo to be our "solid vet".

    - - - Updated - - -

    Yea, 100 losses is coming down to the last day? Will they pull it off?
    [Phil ] Castellini celebrated the team's farm system and noted the team had promising prospects who would one day be great Reds -- and then joke then they'd be ex-Reds, saying "of course we're going to lose them". #SellTheTeamBob

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  20. #313
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    Re: The futility thread.. 100, 102 loss watch

    Quote Originally Posted by WildcatFan View Post
    I can't believe I'm indulging this conversation.
    I can’t believe how many people here wanna bend over backwards to say how, actually, it’s good that the Reds don’t spend any money at all.

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  22. #314
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    Re: The futility thread.. 100, 102 loss watch

    Quote Originally Posted by Wonderful Monds View Post
    I can’t believe how many people here wanna bend over backwards to say how, actually, it’s good that the Reds don’t spend any money at all.
    Ownership has done a great job brainwashing fans into believing that they can’t spend money. Once you believe that, nothing they do is their fault, they can blame the teams that do spend money on making it an unfair league. Martyr complex.

    Reds ownership is in a no lose situation:

    1. They make money every year.

    2. They are expected to lose, so when they do lose it’s no big deal.

    3. If they do win, they’re heroes.
    Last edited by LeatherPants; 10-04-2022 at 11:47 PM.

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  24. #315
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    Re: The futility thread.. 100, 102 loss watch

    Quote Originally Posted by Roy Tucker View Post
    How many had Diaz team lead in wins and saves?
    I wonder how many times this has happened in baseball? Seems very rare.


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