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Thread: The futility thread.. 100, 102 loss watch

  1. #316
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: The futility thread.. 100, 102 loss watch

    Quote Originally Posted by Fil3232 View Post
    I wonder how many times this has happened in baseball? Seems very rare.
    Richard Rodriguez (2020 Pirates) was the last to lead his team in both. The last to do it in a real season was Doug Jones for the 1992 Astros (11 W, 36 Sv). (h/t @ctrent for heads up)

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  4. #317
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    Re: The futility thread.. 100, 102 loss watch

    Thank you, WOY!

  5. #318
    Member 757690's Avatar
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    Re: The futility thread.. 100, 102 loss watch

    Quote Originally Posted by Wonderful Monds View Post
    I canít believe how many people here wanna bend over backwards to say how, actually, itís good that the Reds donít spend any money at all.
    If this is referring to me, itís off base. And I donít see anyone on here saying anything like that.

    Today I was actually criticized because I advocated for the Reds to sign players to $20M one year contracts. Like everyone else here, I want the Reds to spend money, I just want them to spend it wisely, because ownership freaks out every time a player they sign doesnít live up to their contract.
    Hoping to change my username to 75769023

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  7. #319
    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: The futility thread.. 100, 102 loss watch

    Quote Originally Posted by WildcatFan View Post
    I can't believe I'm indulging this conversation.

    Here's the entire list of $10m starting pitchers and their WAR:

    Scherzer, Max
    5.3
    $43,333,333

    Cole, Gerrit
    2.4
    $36,000,000

    Strasburg, Stephen
    -0.3
    $32,205,854

    Bauer, Trevor
    n/a
    $32,000,000

    deGrom, Jacob
    1.4
    $27,257,728

    Wheeler, Zack
    5.1
    $26,000,000

    Verlander, Justin
    5.5
    $25,000,000

    Stroman, Marcus
    2.6
    $25,000,000

    Syndergaard, Noah
    0.6
    $21,000,000

    Gausman, Kevin
    3.1
    $21,000,000

    Darvish, Yu
    4.4
    $20,000,000

    Morton, Charlie
    1.7
    $20,000,000

    Lynn, Lance
    0.7
    $18,500,000

    Wainwright, Adam
    1.8
    $17,500,000

    Mikolas, Miles
    2.4
    $17,000,000

    Eovaldi, Nathan
    1.1
    $17,000,000

    McCullers Jr., Lance
    1.5
    $15,950,000

    Nola, Aaron
    6.0
    $15,500,000

    Gray, Jon
    1.3
    $15,000,000

    Hendricks, Kyle
    0.5
    $14,500,000

    Greinke, Zack
    2.5
    $13,000,000

    DeSclafani, Anthony
    -0.8
    $12,000,000

    Carrasco, Carlos
    1.2
    $12,000,000

    Severino, Luis
    1.6
    $11,500,000

    Marquez, German
    1.5
    $11,300,000

    Berrios, Jose
    -0.5
    $11,000,000

    Gray, Sonny
    2.3
    10,700,000

    27 starters. How many of them would a playoff team in 2022 want in their rotation? Scherzer, Cole, DeGrom, Wheeler, Verlander, Stroman, Lynn, Wainwright, Mikolas, McCullers, Nola, Greinke, Severino, Gray. That's better than 50%. You could add a couple other guys if they weren't hurt (always a risk among pitchers). It's not a crazy stupid risk like some folks around here would have you believe.
    What about Madison Bumgarner, and Robbie Ray? Maybe others?

  8. #320
    Future Fame of Holler WildcatFan's Avatar
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    Re: The futility thread.. 100, 102 loss watch

    Quote Originally Posted by camisadelgolf View Post
    What about Madison Bumgarner, and Robbie Ray? Maybe others?
    Huh, oh yea. I just realized I only searched RHP.
    "I never argue with people who say baseball is boring, because baseball is boring. And then, suddenly, it isn't. And that's what makes it great." - Joe Posnanski

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    Re: The futility thread.. 100, 102 loss watch

    Quote Originally Posted by RiverRat13 View Post
    Signing guys who have shown the ability to have success in the majors is way too risky. The only sure way to get production is to trade known quantities for 19 year old players in A ball.
    Best post in Redszone history!!
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

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  12. #322
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: The futility thread.. 100, 102 loss watch

    If the Reds screw up losing 100 this season has been played in vain.
    Where do baseball team fans send their resignations?

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  14. #323
    Member Mitri's Avatar
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    Re: The futility thread.. 100, 102 loss watch

    I get wanting 100 losses to send a message to the future about how bad ownership was, but it's nice to see the young cats get some scrappy wins to exit the season. I'll take that over signals that will fall flat on the scum that continue to hold this team ransom.

    Next year they'll stink again, but if these guys can learn to play solid team baseball (defense, baserunning, solid at-bats) it's an improvement. Adding actual talent would make a real difference, but at least there's a little something to build upon.

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  16. #324
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    Re: The futility thread.. 100, 102 loss watch

    Quote Originally Posted by backbencher View Post
    Very interesting.

    So out of 19 $10MM pitchers, and assuming $5.4MM/WAR as a market value, there are four contracts in the black, three pretty much neutral, eleven in the red and one incomplete. Those are long odds.

    Now, it's not completely fair - WAR is an incomplete value for the range of teams that need star starters for the postseason.

    The Reds signed three of those nineteen contracts, two in the red and one neutral.
    Where did you get $5.4MM/WAR from? If that was from 2021 FA, that was a blip attributable to the loss of revenue from COVID. I know that league-wide total salaries are in the $5B range and that there are 1,000 total WAR by definition. So that would produce an average of ~$5MM spent per WAR. But that's not how it works in FA of course.

    Fangraphs looked it last offseason and has it more in the $9MM range, especially for guys expected to produce 2+ WAR -- and it's been pretty stable in that ballpark for awhile now.

    To your question of good/bad deals among the list I posted, you'd have to look at their production over the life of their contract. Most deals are signed with the expectation of getting surplus production in the early years and a deficit of production in the latter years, relative to the salary. So even among a group of fairly paid players, those reaching FA are likely to be producing poor value relative to their salary in the final year of their contract. In that sense, perhaps my list was a bit misleading -- you'd want to extend it to include young guys currently making less. Though I'd argue that young guys currently making less than $10M but who deserve closer to 20 are unlikely to sign with the Reds on a short-term deal.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  17. #325
    Member Ron Madden's Avatar
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    Re: The futility thread.. 100, 102 loss watch



    Joel Luckhaupt
    @jluckhaupt

    Fewest 100-loss seasons by a franchise

    Angels 0 (founded in 1961)

    Rockies 0 (founded in 1993)

    Reds 1 (founded in 1882)

    Giants 1 (founded in 1883)

    Brewers 1 (founded in 1969)



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  19. #326
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    Re: The futility thread.. 100, 102 loss watch

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Where did you get $5.4MM/WAR from? If that was from 2021 FA, that was a blip attributable to the loss of revenue from COVID. I know that league-wide total salaries are in the $5B range and that there are 1,000 total WAR by definition. So that would produce an average of ~$5MM spent per WAR. But that's not how it works in FA of course.

    Fangraphs looked it last offseason and has it more in the $9MM range, especially for guys expected to produce 2+ WAR -- and it's been pretty stable in that ballpark for awhile now.

    To your question of good/bad deals among the list I posted, you'd have to look at their production over the life of their contract. Most deals are signed with the expectation of getting surplus production in the early years and a deficit of production in the latter years, relative to the salary. So even among a group of fairly paid players, those reaching FA are likely to be producing poor value relative to their salary in the final year of their contract. In that sense, perhaps my list was a bit misleading -- you'd want to extend it to include young guys currently making less. Though I'd argue that young guys currently making less than $10M but who deserve closer to 20 are unlikely to sign with the Reds on a short-term deal.
    $5.5MM was last year, and trying to be balanced. Thanks for the correction and insights.

    In the overall FA market, sure - look at performance over the length of the deal. But at $9MM/WAR, the contract numbers are, on balance, even further underwater whether using your list or WildcatFan's. (I haven't checked either myself.)

    Thus the paradox: paying market rates for premium starting pitching may be essential to win in the playoffs, but it is a remarkably poor investment (on a WAR basis) for getting there. Or, if you prefer, the Reds may have interest in signing a big-$$ FA starter once they are in a playoff window, but signing such a pitcher too early actually makes it harder to build the best possible roster to get to the playoff window in the first place.

    One solution - a compelling one, in my view - would be to build the team, get in the window, and then make an in-season Castillo-in-reverse trade to maximize the postseason. One could argue that the Reds were trying some version of that with the acquisitions of Bauer and Miley. (Gray, I think, was a different story.) The Reds misjudged their window or their team, or both, of course. But it's a reasonable model, not far from Indians/Guardians approach in architecture (even if very different in execution and results).

    Of course,

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  21. #327
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    Re: The futility thread.. 100, 102 loss watch

    Quote Originally Posted by Wonderful Monds View Post
    I canít believe how many people here wanna bend over backwards to say how, actually, itís good that the Reds donít spend any money at all.
    Who said this, ever?

    The Reds are literally the poorest family in the neighborhood. That doesn't mean they can't have a great meal - the Rays do it, the Guardians, the Brewers - but it does mean that they have to be extra-smart with their resources. Take advantage of sales and coupons (market inefficiencies and youth) and save the money for the items you cannot get any other way.

  22. #328
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    Re: The futility thread.. 100, 102 loss watch

    Quote Originally Posted by WildcatFan View Post
    I can't believe I'm indulging this conversation.

    . . . .

    27 starters. How many of them would a playoff team in 2022 want in their rotation? Scherzer, Cole, DeGrom, Wheeler, Verlander, Stroman, Lynn, Wainwright, Mikolas, McCullers, Nola, Greinke, Severino, Gray. That's better than 50%. You could add a couple other guys if they weren't hurt (always a risk among pitchers). It's not a crazy stupid risk like some folks around here would have you believe.
    I don't think we are having the same conversation.

    I'd want almost ALL of those pitchers in my playoff rotation, of course. Who wouldn't?

    The Reds' first concern however is getting to the playoffs. Which means not only accumulating enough WAR to be in contention, which in turn means maximizing the WAR from each investment. This exercise suggests that big-money starters - while arguably essential to winning in the playoffs - may not be the most resource-efficient way to build a roster that will get there in the first place. This is not about saving the Reds $130MM or whatever their ultimate realistic payroll budget may be, it is about how to allocate $130MM most efficiently, especially when others have realistic budgets of $150MM or $200MM or $250MMM, depending.

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  24. #329
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    Re: The futility thread.. 100, 102 loss watch

    Being honest todays game does have intrigue for this very reason of the 100 losses

  25. #330
    Member Mitri's Avatar
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    Re: The futility thread.. 100, 102 loss watch

    No peaks, but no valleys.

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