The futility thread.. 100, 102 loss watch

[Big Klu]

100 loss season at risk

So today:
42-62 .404 winning percentage. (improved from last check of .384 )
48 games left to play.
If the Reds go 10-38 in the rest of their games (.208 winning percentage), they hit 100 losses.
Probably not going to happen.

Currently, the following teams have worse W-L than the Reds:
Oakland, Nats, Cubs, Rockies, Detroit, KC
If the season ended today, we'd have a 5.5% chance of getting the #1 pick.

I found a good summary of the MLB draft lottery here. I'm going to add a screen shot of the chart here.
https://www.athleticsnation.com/2022...and-as-tanking

Umm...

20-38.

The possibility of 100 losses is still in play.

[REDREAD]

Thanks, I will fix that.. dumb math error..
Thanks for catching.

[757690]

Reds just need to go 26-29 in their remaining 55 games to reach 70 wins. If they can go on this current run with Strickland as their closer, anything is possible.

[REDREAD]

Update:

44-66 .400 winning percentage.
52 games left to play.
If the Reds go 18-34 in the rest of their games (.346 winning percentage), they hit 100 losses.

[Rojo Rijo]

With the stripped down pitching staff i'm guessing a 17-35 finish. Now I could be very wrong as 22 of those games are against the Cubs and the Pirates.

[cumberlandreds]

With the stripped down pitching staff i'm guessing a 17-35 finish. Now I could be very wrong as 22 of those games are against the Cubs and the Pirates.

Also three against the Nats who are even worse than the Reds. There is a chance the NL could have four 100 loss teams.

[TheBigLebowski]

This is a horrible team presently. I don’t think they get to 100, but it’s going to be close.

[Kc61]

This is a horrible team presently. I don’t think they get to 100, but it’s going to be close.

In spirit, this is a 100 loss team. Whatever the exact final number is. Just the way I view it as a long suffering fan.

[REDREAD]

My opinion, the Reds have three awful pitchers in the rotation now.. Dunn, Minor, and TBD (whoever that kid was last time, Dugger , or whoever)
That gives them a chance to lose enough games against the Cubs, Pirates, Nats. But I agree, it's going to be challenging to lose 100 due to the rest of the schedule.
I also agree with KC, this is a 100 loss team in spirit.. whether they lose 100, 95 or whatever, I think the Reds are going to feel the impact when they try to sell tickets this winter.
IMO, the average fan is not going to be jazzed by the kids they got in trades.
The causal fan is only excited about prospect trades when the guy comes up immediately, plays well and provides short term hope.. Even if it's false hope -- for example Nunally, Stynes, Edwardo Perez.

[Falls City Beer]

I think the Cubs are going to take us to the woodshed and we’ll probably split our games with the equally pathetic Pirates. But hey, next year, right?!

[CySeymour]

I get the feeling they’ll blow past 100 loses. Between pitchers being shut down, only having one real option in the pen, and Solano being about the only hitter right now, 100 losses seems assured.

[REDREAD]

Reds at 45-70 (0.391)

47 games left
Reds need to go 17-30 (0.362) the rest of the way to hit 100 losses.
I think they've lost 4 of the last 5 (Cubs and Phillies)..
Pitching has been bad lately, as some have predicted.
100 losses more likely since the last update, IMO.

[Kc61]

Reds chances of 100 losses seem pretty good. They still have 27 road games to play, only 20 at home. Their road record is worse than their home record. Road record is 20-34, home 25-36.

They do play some teams with bad records. They’ve got 10 remaining against Pirates, but six are in Pittsburgh where Pirates are 24-30. Nine with Cubs, six on road. And while there are some seemingly easy series, like Rockies at GABP, four game set at Philly, five at Cards, will be tough series for Reds.

Some of the weaker opponents may be using rookies and scrubs, late season, so that may save the Reds from this 100 loss fate.

Right now Reds are on track for 99 losses based on their W-L percentage of .391.

[HokieRed]

I'm fully expecting at least 100 losses. Who cares?

[Kc61]

Since we’re talking futility, the Reds currently would have a 10% chance at the #1 draft choice in the 2023 draft lottery. They have the fifth lowest winning PCT in MLB.

The teams with the three worst records have the best (16.5%) chance at the #1 pick. Those teams currently are the Nats, A’s, and Tigers. It’s possible but perhaps not likely that Reds could get into that group.

Perhaps more important than the #! Pick, the first six picks in the draft are selected by the lottery among non-playoff teams. So it is meaningful for Reds to have good odds for that top six. After the sixth pick, the order goes by record.