The futility thread.. 100, 102 loss watch

[Kc61]

I agree that Greene and Lodolo are top young pitchers who can become aces over time.

We’ll hear their names a hundred times this off-season.

But good starters today go six innings on average, every fifth day.

The Reds don’t seem to see this.

They skimp on bullpen. The sign guys like Minor (at this stage) to eat innings.

The fastest way to respectability is a near complete pitching staff. Not all need be stars, but fill all the main roles with league average or better guys.

So, yeah, they had two great rookies, bit it’s just a beginning.

[LeatherPants]

I agree that Greene and Lodolo are top young pitchers who can become aces over time.

We’ll hear their names a hundred times this off-season.

But good starters today go six innings on average, every fifth day.

.

I'm going to push back a little on this one. 32 starts a season 6 innings a start is 192 innings, and only 14 starters in the majors threw that many innings in 2022.

[Bourgeois Zee]

To the top of the list. 2 Starters and 3 relievers are priorities 1 through 5.

It is remarkable, after seeing the limp bats on display nearly the entirety of the season-- especially at power positions-- that anyone might not recognize the importance of adding offense to this team.

Cincinnati's offense was second-worst in the game this year-- a -123.9 Offensive score. They earned 5.2 bWAR, most of that on the backs of guys who aren't on the team anymore. (More than 4.0 of that bWAR includes Brandon Drury (nearly half of the WAR by himself), Tommy Pham, Tyler Naquin, and others.)

Its pitching staff ranked 21st in baseball in bWAR.

[LeatherPants]

It is remarkable, after seeing the limp bats on display nearly the entirety of the season-- especially at power positions-- that anyone might not recognize the importance of adding offense to this team.

Cincinnati's offense was second-worst in the game this year-- a -123.9 Offensive score. They earned 5.2 bWAR, most of that on the backs of guys who aren't on the team anymore. (More than 4.0 of that bWAR includes Brandon Drury (nearly half of the WAR by himself), Tommy Pham, Tyler Naquin, and others.)

Its pitching staff ranked 21st in baseball in bWAR.

This goes to show they need everything.

[757690]

I agree that Greene and Lodolo are top young pitchers who can become aces over time.

We’ll hear their names a hundred times this off-season.

But good starters today go six innings on average, every fifth day.

The Reds don’t seem to see this.

They skimp on bullpen. The sign guys like Minor (at this stage) to eat innings.

The fastest way to respectability is a near complete pitching staff. Not all need be stars, but fill all the main roles with league average or better guys.

So, yeah, they had two great rookies, bit it’s just a beginning.

The Reds need everything for 2023. However, they need offense most.

If the Reds added two more solid starting pitchers, and two more solid relievers, with this offense, would still lose between 90-100 games.

If the Reds added two middle of the lineup bats, with this pitching staff, would be close to a .500 team.

The offense would be one of the worst in the majors, maybe the worst. The pitching staff would be decent.

[foster15]

The Reds need everything for 2023. However, they need offense most.

If the Reds added two more solid starting pitchers, and two more solid relievers, with this offense, would still lose between 90-100 games.

If the Reds added two middle of the lineup bats, with this pitching staff, would be close to a .500 team.

The offense would be one of the worst in the majors, maybe the worst. The pitching staff would be decent.

For some reason, GABP makes it easier to find average players that can thrive with the bat than it does pitchers. Deitrichs, Scooters, Drurys etc... seem to pop in and have career years or two much more often than Dan Strailys do.

And no, a team with a very good pitching staff from top to bottom will not lose 90 games. What mainly decides the amount of runs scored in a game is the pitching, not the hitting. Even a poor hitting team will tee off on a bad pitching day for the opposition and a great hitting team will be shutdown by a great pitching day by the opposition.

If the Reds are going to continue to throw things against the wall and see what sticks, they should do it with offensive side of things, because it will work out better if than doing it with the pitching staff as they seem to do now.

[mth123]

It is remarkable, after seeing the limp bats on display nearly the entirety of the season-- especially at power positions-- that anyone might not recognize the importance of adding offense to this team.

Cincinnati's offense was second-worst in the game this year-- a -123.9 Offensive score. They earned 5.2 bWAR, most of that on the backs of guys who aren't on the team anymore. (More than 4.0 of that bWAR includes Brandon Drury (nearly half of the WAR by himself), Tommy Pham, Tyler Naquin, and others.)

Its pitching staff ranked 21st in baseball in bWAR.

They need offense, but the best prospects are all position players (5 top 100 prospects, another who was a second team all minor league all star and several young guys who showed potential as role players at the end of the year). They also have their most productive guys coming back from the IL next year. I'd mostly look there to fix the position side, at least for 2023 until we have a better read on some guys. Pitching needs help immediately from outside the organization. Most of the best pitching prospects look like relievers and they have a higher crash and burn rate.

They probably need stop gaps all over, but when you're looking to acquire building blocks, the position side has a number of in house options. The pitching side not really any beyond Greene, Lodolo and Ashcraft.

If you pitch well, you're always in the game. If you don't, it seems like you can never score enough runs no matter how good the offense is.

[RiverRat13]

It is remarkable, after seeing the limp bats on display nearly the entirety of the season-- especially at power positions-- that anyone might not recognize the importance of adding offense to this team.

Cincinnati's offense was second-worst in the game this year-- a -123.9 Offensive score. They earned 5.2 bWAR, most of that on the backs of guys who aren't on the team anymore. (More than 4.0 of that bWAR includes Brandon Drury (nearly half of the WAR by himself), Tommy Pham, Tyler Naquin, and others.)

Its pitching staff ranked 21st in baseball in bWAR.

5.2 bWAR of the Reds pitching was accumulated by Mahle and Castillo.

[RiverRat13]

The Reds need everything for 2023. However, they need offense most.

If the Reds added two more solid starting pitchers, and two more solid relievers, with this offense, would still lose between 90-100 games.

If the Reds added two middle of the lineup bats, with this pitching staff, would be close to a .500 team.

The offense would be one of the worst in the majors, maybe the worst. The pitching staff would be decent.

If 2023 was the goal I'd agree with you. But since 2024 is (hopefully) the goal, I'd rather add pitching. As mth posted, the bats are coming. If they don't pan out, 2024 isn't happening anyway. And with so much positional uncertainty with the young talent coming up (they can't all play shortstop), I'd like another year to let it sort itself out before allocating money to offense instead of pitching.

All of that said, if they sign anyone of consequence to a multi-year deal, I'll take it. Doesn't really matter the position.

[NachoMan]

When ELDC debuts, I might start checking the box scores again

[757690]

If 2023 was the goal I'd agree with you. But since 2024 is (hopefully) the goal, I'd rather add pitching. As mth posted, the bats are coming. If they don't pan out, 2024 isn't happening anyway. And with so much positional uncertainty with the young talent coming up (they can't all play shortstop), I'd like another year to let it sort itself out before allocating money to offense instead of pitching.

All of that said, if they sign anyone of consequence to a multi-year deal, I'll take it. Doesn't really matter the position.

The Reds already have a good core of MLB pitcher for 2024 and beyond, with some decent pitching prospects on the way.

They have almost no one at the MLB level on offense for 2024. India is coming off a bad year and Stephenson is hurt half the time. They have no one else they can count on for 2023, 2024 or beyond on offense. They have good prospects, but they are prospects, no one proven.

If I am going to prioritize which holes to fill, I am going to prioritize where there are fewer proven MLB players. That’s the offense.

That said, I agree with you, they need help everywhere, so I will be happy with any additions.

[757690]

For some reason, GABP makes it easier to find average players that can thrive with the bat than it does pitchers. Deitrichs, Scooters, Drurys etc... seem to pop in and have career years or two much more often than Dan Strailys do.

And no, a team with a very good pitching staff from top to bottom will not lose 90 games. What mainly decides the amount of runs scored in a game is the pitching, not the hitting. Even a poor hitting team will tee off on a bad pitching day for the opposition and a great hitting team will be shutdown by a great pitching day by the opposition.

If the Reds are going to continue to throw things against the wall and see what sticks, they should do it with offensive side of things, because it will work out better if than doing it with the pitching staff as they seem to do now.

I remember the 1982 Reds. League average pitching staff, dead last in offense. 101 loses. That is where I see this team going without any additions.

[Roy Tucker]

I remember the 1982 Reds. League average pitching staff, dead last in offense. 101 loses. That is where I see this team going without any additions.

The only year I ever bought Reds season tickets. I had a lot of spare time and it seemed like a good idea at the time.

[Kc61]

Reds have Stephenson and Votto presumably returning healthy. CES, McClain, and DeLaCruz at AAA. India should be healthy. Fraley snd Friedl back and Farmer.

The offense certainly needs help, but they have more answers in house than on the pitching side IMO. Pitching staff only has a few guys.

I’d start with more pitching if opportunities are there.

[Falls City Beer]

How many consecutive seasons will the Reds trot out a bottom 5 or bottom 10 bullpen?