Mahle traded to the Twins

[LeatherPants]

And if my aunt had wheels she'd be a wagon.

Half his games were pitched in GABP. You cannot just delete that. Other pitchers have succeeded at GABP. I know people point to this a lot, but this is not a feather in his cap.

But the Twins traded for what they think he'll do moving forward, and moving forward he's not going to be pitching at GAB, where his numbers are just horrible (2.0 HR/9, for example). Everywhere else he's been pretty great.

[M2]

He's only in the middle of his 5th year and hasn't had time to pitch off the baby weight from his first two seasons. And the COVID-shortened year shaved 100+ IP of good pitching off his resume. He's had a 118 ERA+ the past three season. Doesn't matter where you pitch, that's a serious SP. Also, his 9.6 WAR with the Reds ranks him 7th among all Reds SPs this century (behind Cueto, Arroyo, Castillo, Harang, Gray and Dessens) and 2nd among all the arms out of the Reds' pipeline.

Given that he's the ripe old age of 27, he's likely to be having quality seasons and pitching big games for good teams for years to come.

[RedTeamGo!]

He's only in the middle of his 5th year and hasn't had time to pitch off the baby weight from his first two seasons. And the COVID-shortened year shaved 100+ IP of good pitching off his resume. He's had a 118 ERA+ the past three season. Doesn't matter where you pitch, that's a serious SP. Also, his 9.6 WAR with the Reds ranks him 7th among all Reds SPs this century (behind Cueto, Arroyo, Castillo, Harang, Gray and Dessens) and 2nd among all the arms out of the Reds' pipeline.

Given that he's the ripe old age of 27, he's likely to be having quality seasons and pitching big games for good teams for years to come.

Like I said, he is a solid pitcher. His ERA+ last 3 seasons was 118, but its 102 this year. The best ERA+ of his career was 2020, which was less than 50 innings pitched.

[M2]

Like I said, he is a solid pitcher. His ERA+ last 3 seasons was 118, but its 102 this year. The best ERA+ of his career was 2020, which was less than 50 innings pitched.

Thus why the three-year ERA+ sample >>> any single season ERA+ sample. It's a 338 IP sample.

[mth123]

I think Mahle is a very fine starter and I wish the Reds still had him.

Still, his market seemed to be 1 guy who ranked in the 75 to 100 range and two other prospects with some potential. Steer is a top 100 prospect and Encarnacion-Strand and Haijar both look like guys who can contribute beyond the interchangeable part AAA shuttle types.

I think this was a fair trade. The Twins got a good middle of the rotation starting pitcher and the Reds got young players who are about what he's worth on the market. That's how trades are supposed to work.

[Patrick Bateman]

And if my aunt had wheels she'd be a wagon.

Half his games were pitched in GABP. You cannot just delete that. Other pitchers have succeeded at GABP. I know people point to this a lot, but this is not a feather in his cap.

It for sure shows some chinks in his armor, but also a sign of likely greener pastures in another stadium. Maybe GABP is in his head. Maybe he's given up a ton of wall scrapers. New park could be sold on a bottom line improvement. Would suggest caution if I was Yankees, Jays, or another home run park.

[REDREAD]

However, if the Reds had done that they would have been absolutely crucified by the fan base for not moving him at the deadline.

By some fans? Yes.
Not by me though.
I mean, Castillo has been shopped the last 3 years or so, no one really complained when the Reds kept him because the Yanks weren't willing to trade Torres.. Well, I take that back, I am sure some people claimed, but there was not a lot of mass outrage.
I think RZ gives us a false sense of what the average fan thinks.. Sure, a lot of people on this board were cheering for a complete burndown, because that gives them hope.
The average fan? He thinks.. OMG, it wasn't enough to give away Castillo for prospects, they had to dump Mahle too?
Most Reds fans can not even name 3 people in the Reds minor league system.

I will also counter that the GMs job isn't to worry about being crucified by the fans. His job is to make the team better in the short term and long term.
I really doubt that even most redzoners would have been upset if Mahle was on the team in 2023. Sure, a few would, but not most.

[RedsManRick]

Encarnacion-Strand now 4 for 9 with 2 BB and a HR in his first two games with the Lookouts. CES now has a career minor league OPS of 1.000 in nearly 500 PA. This kid could very well be the best hitter in our loaded minor league system.

With his power, the real test is going to be the upper minors where he can't just feast on fastballs. He apparently had some problems chasing breaking stuff in college. But it's hard not to be excited by the upside, especially if he keeps his strikeout rate under 30%.

[REDREAD]

Why does one of the players need to be a star? I think Steer and Encarnacion-Stroud both have the opportunity to be solid MLB regulars.

I think Mahle is a case of Reds fans overrating their own player.

Mahle Career numbers:

ERA - 4.37
FIP - 4.28
ERA+ - 105
WHIP - 1.319
H/9 - 8.5
HR/9 - 1.4
BB/9 - 3.3
K/9 - 9.6

600 IP

At the end of the day, he is a solid, middle/back of rotation starter. On a team like the Yankees or Dodgers, he is the 5th starter. The Reds got a top 100 prospect, a guy that is going to be a top 100 prospect if he continues to hit - checks notes - 1.000 OPS, and an interesting arm. The Encarnacion-Strand "ranking" from MLB pipeline is very misleading, it is old information. Since that ranking he has completely ripped apart the minors.

With Castillo, Drury, and Naquin the Reds acquired very young but talented players that are far away 2-3 years away from the majors. With Mahle the Reds acquired 2 players that should both be up with the Reds by 2023. Steer will probably be called up in 2022. I liked the approach to the deadline.

He is not "At the end of the day, he is a solid, middle/back of rotation starter. "
He's much better than that

It's kind of funny how before the deadline, Mahle was the #3 trading chip on the market, and the Reds are in the drivers seat.
When he's someone else's player, he gets demoted to meh.
Yea, he struggled in the GAB. Most pitchers do.
He took his lumps when he first came up at an early age, his recent numbers are better
From 2020 on, his numbers are much better, see attachment from baseball reference

[RedTeamGo!]

Thus why the three-year ERA+ sample >>> any single season ERA+ sample. It's a 338 IP sample.

Not disagreeing, like I said, he is a solid MOR/BOR starter. I think Reds fans are acting like he is a TOR starter, and he isn't.

[RedTeamGo!]

He is not "At the end of the day, he is a solid, middle/back of rotation starter. "
He's much better than that

It's kind of funny how before the deadline, Mahle was the #3 trading chip on the market, and the Reds are in the drivers seat.
When he's someone else's player, he gets demoted to meh.
Yea, he struggled in the GAB. Most pitchers do.
He took his lumps when he first came up at an early age, his recent numbers are better
From 2020 on, his numbers are much better, see attachment from baseball reference

I wasn't one that said that about Mahle. I have always questioned him. He is the kind of pitcher that nibbles the corners. It can be effective, sure, but it also is frustrating, and its not the kind of pitcher I want going in a big game. He also gives up the long ball and he gets crushed in GABP, which is kind of important if you are going to pitch half your games there.

I am on record saying Mahle is the first pitcher I would have traded from this "generation" - if I was in charge I would have traded him last offseason and kept Gray and Miley.

Those last 3 "seasons" numbers are solid MOR stuff. Now look at just this year.

[Patrick Bateman]

Not disagreeing, like I said, he is a solid MOR/BOR starter. I think Reds fans are acting like he is a TOR starter, and he isn't.

Agreed on that end, and this point specifically matters when your audience is playoff bound teams that have a primary interest in upgrading their top 3-4 pitchers starting multiple playoff games. There's a large gap in getting a guy you trust to take the ball in games 1 and 5 (Castillo), vs a guy that might just be taking the ball in game 4, and you plan on having numerous bullpen arms available for that game.

Mahle had value for sure, but the expected return should have been a very clear notch or three below Castillo in terms of trade value.

[RedTeamGo!]

Agreed on that end, and this point specifically matters when your audience is playoff bound teams that have a primary interest in upgrading their top 3-4 pitchers starting multiple playoff games. There's a large gap in getting a guy you trust to take the ball in games 1 and 5 (Castillo), vs a guy that might just be taking the ball in game 4, and you plan on having numerous bullpen arms available for that game.

Mahle had value for sure, but the expected return should have been a very clear notch or three below Castillo in terms of trade value.

This is precisely my point. The Yankees, Dodgers, Mets, etc were looking for SPs that will win them playoff games. The Twins were looking for SPs that will help them sneak into the playoffs. I am sorry but Mahle is not a guy that you feel great about taking the ball in a win-or-go home playoff situation. He just isn't. So, why would the Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, etc throw a huge prospect package at a pitcher they know is going to be their #4 or #5 guy? The answer is they would not. That is why Castillo was so sought after. Every team knows he is a guy that can take the ball in a pressure packed situation and blow hitters away. He did it against the Braves in 2020 and I think that game against the Yankees a month ago turned some heads across the league.

I think the Reds picked up, at least, 2 players for Mahle that can contribute to the big league club very soon. It was a fair trade.

I think a lot of Reds fans saw the return for Castillo and got big eyes. People needs to realize 2 things:

1. The return for Castillo was bonkers. An extreme outlier. I still cannot believe the Mariners pulled the trigger on that. Legit shocking return.
2. Castillo had significantly more value than Mahle.

[REDREAD]

I wasn't one that said that about Mahle. I have always questioned him. He is the kind of pitcher that nibbles the corners. It can be effective, sure, but it also is frustrating, and its not the kind of pitcher I want going in a big game. He also gives up the long ball and he gets crushed in GABP, which is kind of important if you are going to pitch half your games there.

I am on record saying Mahle is the first pitcher I would have traded from this "generation" - if I was in charge I would have traded him last offseason and kept Gray and Miley.

Those last 3 "seasons" numbers are solid MOR stuff. Now look at just this year.

Sure you did, look in the quoted text.. you said he was a solid middle/back of the rotation guy and posted his career numbers as evidence.
The guy is good enough to be a playoff starter on most teams. If he wasn't, there would have been minimal interest in him.
His numbers this year are pretty much in line with his numbers of the last 3 years, considering sample size.
The rest of the world disagrees with you.. Plenty of stuff like this written before and after the deadline
Note, I am not saying he is as good as Castillo and should have returned something comparable.
I'm not saying he's an ace, but he could start a playoff game.
But he's better than a #4/#5 starter on a playoff team, which is what you say.

The Twins are acquiring Mahle at his best. The right-hander got off to a miserable start this year, but his season turned on a dime in late May. Over his past nine starts, he has a 2.83 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 10.0 K/9, which are even better numbers than during his breakthrough season a year ago. What tops it off, though, is that the Twins are getting him out of Cincinnati. where he has a career 5.02 ERA compared to 3.74 on the road. The difference is mostly in the home run rate (1.9 per nine innings at home vs. 0.8 on the road). Mahle tends to put the ball in the air, and Great American Ball Park is a smaller venue. Target Field is much better suited for his abilities and could see him threaten for top-30 status at starting pitcher.

https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/ba...-destinations/

[RedTeamGo!]

Sure you did, look in the quoted text.. you said he was a solid middle/back of the rotation guy and posted his career numbers as evidence.
The guy is good enough to be a playoff starter on most teams. If he wasn't, there would have been minimal interest in him.
His numbers this year are pretty much in line with his numbers of the last 3 years, considering sample size.
The rest of the world disagrees with you.. Plenty of stuff like this written before and after the deadline




https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/ba...-destinations/

I know there was stuff like that written about him.

Lets put it this way, if the Mets, Dodgers, and Yankees felt like he was a big game pitcher the Twins would have never gotten him.

As for the writers point about Target Field, obviously a SSS, but he gave up 3 bombs his first game there.