Reds Top Prospects - August 2022 Edition

[Benihana]

Now that the draft and the trading deadline have come and gone, the Reds farm rebuild is complete. I haven't done one of these in years, and with all the new names it feels like an exciting time to take a stab at it and see where things are looking for the future. Also included their projected starting level for next season:

GRADE A (Top 25 prospect in the game, future All-Star potential)

1. Elly De La Cruz SS AA - one of the most exciting prospects we've ever had, his upside is higher than perhaps anyone in the minors. Biggest question is whether he's the next Eric Davis or the next Jose Reyes (with more power), at least positionally speaking
2. Noelvi Marte SS/3B/CF AA - the crown jewel of this year's teardown will likely end up at whatever position Elly doesn't - either 3B or CF probably in that order

GRADE B (Top 100 prospect in the game, future first division starter)

3. Cam Collier 3B A+ - could easily get to Grade A status with a strong pro debut
4. Edwin Arroyo SS A+ - if he keeps hitting like this he too could end up a Grade A, as he's the likeliest name on here to stick at SS
5. Matt McLain SS/3B/2B/OF AAA - the forgotten former top pick will likely need to move off SS, but he should get to AAA immediately IMO
6. Connor Phillips RHP AA - the best arm from this year's rebuild has been impressive in his first year in the organization

GRADE C (Future major leaguer likely)

7. Spencer Steer INF MLB - knocking on the door of being Grade B. Let's hope he's more 2022 Brandon Drury than rest of career Brandon Drury (or to use another Reds example - more Justin Turner than Chris Valaika)
8. Brandon Williamson LHP MLB - took a small step back this year, but should be ready to challenge for the #5 starter job in ST
9. Chase Petty RHP AA - could have some helium and end up a Grade B/top 100 prospect by this time next year
10. Andrew Abbott LHP AAA - he'll be in Cincy before long, likely as a middle reliever but some hope he could be a BOR starter (and be next year's Graham Ashcraft)

11. Jay Allen CF A+ - next year will be sink or swim, but the potential is there
12. Allan Cerda CF AA - continues to perform nicely, could be a future Jose Siri type
13. Rece Hinds RF AA - one of my personal favorites, he has to learn better discipline to avoid becoming the next Juan Francisco
14. Sal Stewart 1B A - I have high hopes he could rocket up this list and be the 1B of the future in the Yonder Alonso mold
15. Steve Hajjar LHP AA - didn't love today's trade but I like the fact that he's a Wolverine and has had a hot start, hopefully he becomes the next Rich Hill

16. Victor Acosta SS/2B A - I felt like he was a good get for Drury, switch-hitting version of Cabrera. Hoping he develops into more than a Rey Olmedo type
17. Ricardo Cabrera SS A - Reds highest rated international signing in some time, we have high hopes for him
18. Christian Encarnacion-Strand 1B/3B AA/AAA - hoping he's more than the next Neftali Soto. Other Redzoners seem to be higher on him than me
19. Levi Stoudt RHP AAA - would've strongly preferred Emerson Hancock over him, but hopefully he can shake off this year's disappointment and be a useful bullpen piece soon
20. Logan Tanner C A+ - hoping he has a better pro debut than Mat Nelson or Jackson Miller

21. Joe Boyle RHP AA - great season this year, hopefully he keeps it up next year
22. Bryce Bonnin RHP AA - been great when healthy, unfortunately that hasn't been a lot
23. Christian Roa RHP AAA - the less impressive but healthier version of Bonnin, he could probably pitch in relief in Cincy before long
24. Jose Acuna RHP AA - a nice young arm they got for Naquin, let's see how he performs in Chattanooga next year
25. Tyler Callihan 2B AA - some are higher on him than me, but I feel like he's gonna get lost now more than ever with all the infield talent coming
(tie) Mat Nelson C AA - his bat has been disappointing so far, he's mostly here on his sandwich round pedigree from last year. Hoping (but not optimistic) he can be more than the next Chris Okey

[WrongVerb]

Wow.

[klw]

Nice list. The only obvious omission to me is Alex McGarry. I think he has played his way into the Top 25 for me this year.

[Mitri]

I would definitely include Daniel Vellojin here, probably in the top 15. He's the best catching prospect in the system. I'll try

1. Elly
2. Marte
3. Arroyo
4. Collier
5. McLain
6. Williamson
7. Steer
8. Phillips
9. Cerda
10. Petty
11. Allen
12. Vellojin
13. Boyle
14. Abbott
15. Encarnacion
16. Sal Stewart
17. Stoudt
18. Roa
19. Acosta
20. Bonnin
21. Hajjar
22. Callihan
23. Hinds
24. Tanner
25. Cabrera

[JCM11]

No respect for my man Mike Siani? 2.3 years younger than league average .346 OBP, 46/66 BB/SO ratio, .728 OPS with 33SB, and top notch defense in CF. I think he has a chance to be a glove first starter in CF for the Reds if he can keep that OPS around .700 with the excellent BB/SO rate as he moves up.

[Benihana]

No respect for my man Mike Siani? 2.3 years younger than league average .346 OBP, 46/66 BB/SO ratio, .728 OPS with 33SB, and top notch defense in CF. I think he has a chance to be a glove first starter in CF for the Reds if he can keep that OPS around .700 with the excellent BB/SO rate as he moves up.

Unfortunately not from me. Career OPS of .689 for an OF isn’t doing it for me. I had hopes for him when he was drafted, but unfortunately now he’s looking like he’s the next Kyle Waldrop, Steve Gibraltar or Mike Frank.

[JCM11]

Unfortunately not from me. Career OPS of .689 for an OF isn’t doing it for me. I had hopes for him when he was drafted, but unfortunately now he’s looking like he’s the next Kyle Waldrop, Steve Gibraltar or Mike Frank.

Career OPS means nothing when a guy is drafted out of high school. How do you rank Callihan a guy OPSing .502 with no HR in 90 AB in A+ playing a non premium defensive position over a guy a year older at a level higher OPSing 230 points higher playing GG defense in CF with elite speed?

[Bourgeois Zee]

Mine looks slightly different. The system's upside is just ridiculous-- there are nine or ten guys who could receive top 100 consideration (De La Cruz, Marte, Arroyo, McLain, Williamson, Collier, Steer, Encarnacion-Strand, Petty, and Phillips).

The depth is just as ridiculous. I could name at least 50 guys who are worthy of watching. Best of all, they're varied. There's upside, high floors, hit guys, power guys, stuff guys, young'uns, veterans, gamers, baseball rats, fast movers, and steady Eddies.

It'll be interesting to see what Fangraphs says about the depth next off-season. It'll be fascinating to see how many Red prospects will be ranked inside the top 25/ 50/ 100/ 150 in the game.

[Betterread]

Thanks for putting the list together, with one quibble: Chase petty throws a100 mph FB and has a 55 Slider and he is just 19. He has a lot more potential than Phillips. He has the best arm in this rebuild.

[Benihana]

Mine looks slightly different. The system's upside is just ridiculous-- there are nine or ten guys who could receive top 100 consideration (De La Cruz, Marte, Arroyo, McLain, Williamson, Collier, Steer, Encarnacion-Strand, Petty, and Phillips).

The depth is just as ridiculous. I could name at least 50 guys who are worthy of watching. Best of all, they're varied. There's upside, high floors, hit guys, power guys, stuff guys, young'uns, veterans, gamers, baseball rats, fast movers, and steady Eddies.

It'll be interesting to see what Fangraphs says about the depth next off-season. It'll be fascinating to see how many Red prospects will be ranked inside the top 25/ 50/ 100/ 150 in the game.

I appreciate your optimism but I will be shocked if you can find me one respectable publication that is giving consideration to Encarnacion-Strand as a top 100 prospect. He was ranked the 12th best prospect in the (below average) Twins system as recently as last week (by Aaron Gleeman/The Athletic).

[Betterread]

Nm

[Bourgeois Zee]

I appreciate your optimism but I will be shocked if you can find me one respectable publication that is giving consideration to Encarnacion-Strand as a top 100 prospect. He was ranked the 12th best prospect in the (below average) Twins system as recently as last week (by Aaron Gleeman/The Athletic).

If he's still hitting 900+ in AA by the end of the season, he'll be a top 100 prospect.

Check out the blurb from Baseball America about him.

Here's what BP says about him:

[Encarnacion-Strand projects as an above-average first baseman/DH whose contact and power combination make him a middle-of-the-order run producer. His defensive limitations put a ton of pressure on the bat and he’s yet to prove himself against upper-level pitching. If the swing and miss don’t improve he could still see time on a second-division club, but there is also a positive risk that the bat clicks and he becomes an occasional All-Star.

[Benihana]

Nice list. The only obvious omission to me is Alex McGarry. I think he has played his way into the Top 25 for me this year.

That's fair - I wouldn't have a problem with him at 25 over Callihan/Nelson.

He does strike me as more of a "cup of coffee" type in a down year (ie next year), rather than a guy that will have a long big league career or play on meaningful teams.

[Rojo Rijo]

No respect for my man Mike Siani? 2.3 years younger than league average .346 OBP, 46/66 BB/SO ratio, .728 OPS with 33SB, and top notch defense in CF. I think he has a chance to be a glove first starter in CF for the Reds if he can keep that OPS around .700 with the excellent BB/SO rate as he moves up.

I agree. There is still a ton of potential there. We know he can field, throw, and run (60/60/60) but where I go to first every time I look at how a hitting prospect is doing is K/BB.

Now in what is his 3rd full season here is his trend, which is most definitely in the right direction.

2019 (19 years old - A ball) - 109/46 in 531 PA - 20.5% K / 8.6% BB
2021 (21 years old - A+ ball) - 103/50 in 408 PA - 25.2 % K / 12.2 % BB - The K% increase is there but almost a 4% increase in walks.
2022 (22 years old - AA ball) - 67/47 in 396 PA - 16.9% K / 11.8% BB - That's almost a 9% drop in K%. That's massive considering he moved up from A+ to AA.
*His 2021 fall ball K/BB was 9/10 in 51 PA.

His 8 HR this year are his most in a season his SLG is what's keeping his OPS down with only 25 of his 84 hits being XBHs. While i'd love to see a higher OPS I don't see how you can look at his massive K% drop after a season where he had a solid BB% increase and not think the kid might be figuring it out.

I like him over Hinds - 39.7% K / 8.8 % BB (85/19 in 214 PAs) in A+ and Callihan - 25.7% K / 5.1% BB (25/5 in 97 PAs) right now. Callihan did have a much K/BB% in A ball earlier this year - 19 in 128 PA (14.8%) and walked 10 times (12.8%) but he is also SLG% challenged. Siani is clearly the more talented defender and base runner and is just under 14 months older than Hinds and just under a year older than Callihan.

The K/BB is the last thing i'm waiting to see from EDLC before I crown him the next star. If he improves that while maintaining his SLG% he's going to be spectacular.

[OesterPoster]

Pretty good list, but I agree about a couple misses. Vellojin is a huge omission. And McGarry too.

I'd bump Callihan out. I don't understand the love for that one. Should be a fun/difficult offseason minor league ranking thread.