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Thread: Reds Top Prospects - August 2022 Edition

  1. #31
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    Re: Reds Top Prospects - August 2022 Edition

    Quote Originally Posted by CaiGuy View Post
    I see Sian's name come up a lot, but just can't see a guy who can't hit the low minors at all as a viable prospect to make the ML.

    In advanced A ball, he managed a .216/.321/.327/.648 line.

    For reference at the same age and level, Billy Hamilton managed a .323/.413/.439/.852 line and kicked the door down to AA. And he has a 67 OPS+ in the majors.
    It's almost as if they're two different players. Siani is 6'1 190 so he's not a flea who will get the bat knocked out of his hand when he moves up in competition. Even so Hamilton was a useful player putting up a 9.4 WAR in 6 seasons with the Reds. If Siani has a .650 OPS and plays a GG CF with 30+ SB that's a useful player as a #9 hitter.

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  4. #32
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    Re: Reds Top Prospects - August 2022 Edition

    Quote Originally Posted by wolfboy View Post
    Oh, absolutely. I'm incredibly bullish on CES. He's my favorite piece of that deal. But I don't expect minor league ranking types to share the sentiment because of his deficiencies. And to be clear, his OPS at AA is 1.085. .987 is his overall OPS between A+ and AA.
    He is definitely knocking the cover off the ball in all 13 of his games in AA.

    I hope it continues.

    I think the hyper optimism is a little overbaked right now. He's a 4th round college draftee who has played 13 games above A ball. I am tempering my exuberance a bit.
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  5. #33
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    Re: Reds Top Prospects - August 2022 Edition

    Been watching some CES highlights. He's built like a tank at age 22 and has power to all fields. One of his bombs went 484 ft. If he can maintain or even improve the BB/SO ratio as he moves up that bat will definitely play in the bigs. He's looking like a top 10 guy in the Reds system to me.

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  7. #34
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    Re: Reds Top Prospects - August 2022 Edition

    Quote Originally Posted by JCM11 View Post
    Been watching some CES highlights. He's built like a tank at age 22 and has power to all fields. One of his bombs went 484 ft. If he can maintain or even improve the BB/SO ratio as he moves up that bat will definitely play in the bigs. He's looking like a top 10 guy in the Reds system to me.
    I've mentioned it elsewhere but I have some concerns about his BB and K rates. They're not horrific but they certainly could be better. If he continues to mash like this it will be interesting to see if his BB rate ticks up. I can't recall where I read it but I saw one evaluation of him state that he's a little over-aggressive, even outside of the strike zone. Another concern I have are the extreme splits he has between RHP (1.087 OPS in 2022) and LHP (.731 OPS). This is only over ~100 PA against LHP but still something worth keeping an eye on because it's so drastic. Plenty to like here though. He'll be fun to watch this season.
    How do we know he's not Mel Torme?

  8. #35
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    Re: Reds Top Prospects - August 2022 Edition

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    Interesting you have McGarry 13 spots ahead of Cerda when they performed similarly in Dayton this year. McGarry is doing a little better in Chattanooga so far though 25 games, but Cerda two years younger and a plus defender in CF while McGarry is a 1B/DH type. Also no Jay Allen?
    Simple on McGarry vs. Cerda. McGarry carried his A+ success into AA, Cerda hasn't. I simply think McGarry has a chance to hit big league pitching. Cerda might be more athletic and have more defensive value, but if he can't hit big league pitching, he's an interchangeable part with tons of other athletic defenders who strike out a lot. He does have power, but if his comp is Aquino, I'll vote for McGarry.

    Forgot about Allen. I'd probably stick him in between Stoudt and Haijer on this list (14).
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    Re: Reds Top Prospects - August 2022 Edition

    If a 24-year-old org type guy like McGarry is getting some attention I'd like to give a little cred to his fellow 24 YO and Chattanooga teammate Nick Quintana. He's the return from the already forgotten Barnhart trade in the offseason and after not hitting at all in Detroit's system as a 2019 second round pick he's slashing a respectable .263/.379/.419 between A+ and AA while 2B and 3B this year.

    Probably nothing to get too interested in yet, and some more pop would be nice, but based on his Tigers play I had no expectations for him to do anything so that he earned a promotion and is still hitting in AA is a pleasant surprise.
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  10. #37
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    Re: Reds Top Prospects - August 2022 Edition

    If Siani’s D is as good as as advertised he might have enough bat to leg out the Michael Bourne path that escaped Billy.


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    Re: Reds Top Prospects - August 2022 Edition

    Quote Originally Posted by JCM11 View Post
    It's almost as if they're two different players. Siani is 6'1 190 so he's not a flea who will get the bat knocked out of his hand when he moves up in competition. Even so Hamilton was a useful player putting up a 9.4 WAR in 6 seasons with the Reds. If Siani has a .650 OPS and plays a GG CF with 30+ SB that's a useful player as a #9 hitter.
    That's the point though....if you look at some of the glove first guys that the Reds have had like Hamilton and Barnhart, they could at least hit in the low minors.

    I think a guy with a .650 OPS in A ball won't do that in MLB. That number will be even lower.

    He is a Red so I will root for him and hope I am wrong.

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    Re: Reds Top Prospects - August 2022 Edition

    Quote Originally Posted by CaiGuy View Post
    That's the point though....if you look at some of the glove first guys that the Reds have had like Hamilton and Barnhart, they could at least hit in the low minors.

    I think a guy with a .650 OPS in A ball won't do that in MLB. That number will be even lower.

    He is a Red so I will root for him and hope I am wrong.
    Why do you keep bringing up his OPS in A ball when his OPS in AA is over .700
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    Re: Reds Top Prospects - August 2022 Edition

    Quote Originally Posted by Spanky View Post
    Why do you keep bringing up his OPS in A ball when his OPS in AA is over .700
    Because a guy that is talented enough to climb to the majors should be able to handle the lowest level of the minor leagues. If you look at glove-first guys like the Bourne reference above, they usually hit really, really well against lesser competition and struggle a bit as they move up. If you can't hit the lowest level, than I don't think it will improve from there.

    But that's also fine, the fact that he is sporting a .730 OPS in AA also tells me he probably won't hit enough to carry his glove in the majors.

  17. #41
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    Re: Reds Top Prospects - August 2022 Edition

    I dunno, it seems to me that Siani is showing incremental improvements as he rises in the minor leagues. It appears his SO/BB numbers are slightly better in AA. Don’t get me wrong, I think Siani’s ceiling is nothing more than a 4/5 OF. But based on current numbers compared to his 2021 numbers, it’s a little early to write him off. You push him to AAA next year and see how he responds.
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  19. #42
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    Re: Reds Top Prospects - August 2022 Edition

    Quote Originally Posted by CaiGuy View Post
    That's the point though....if you look at some of the glove first guys that the Reds have had like Hamilton and Barnhart, they could at least hit in the low minors.

    I think a guy with a .650 OPS in A ball won't do that in MLB. That number will be even lower.

    He is a Red so I will root for him and hope I am wrong.
    Except he has a 730 ops in AA. Not earth shattering by any stretch. But it seems like he’s improving at the plate. I think he’ll at least get a cup of coffee as a defensive replacement at some point.

  20. #43
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    Re: Reds Top Prospects - August 2022 Edition

    I think Siani has a decent chance of getting a cup of coffee in the major leagues as a 5th OF.

    I think he has very little chance of ever being a meaningful contributor.

    Like I said earlier in the thread, look to Mike Frank or Steve Gibraltar as a comp. I think his best case scenario is someone like Ryan LaMarre. If you think a guy like that belongs on a top 25 prospect list, I won't argue, but it's not a particularly interesting profile to me.
    Last edited by Benihana; 08-04-2022 at 10:12 AM.
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  21. #44
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    Re: Reds Top Prospects - August 2022 Edition

    Luckily for Siani the current bar to clear to be a CF for the Reds is a .625 OPS and a negative 0.5 dWAR.

  22. #45
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    Re: Reds Top Prospects - August 2022 Edition

    Crazy how Hendrick went from a Top 5 guy to out of the Top 25 in less than a year. Hopefully he bounces back. He's barely 21, but the K issues are a huge concern.
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