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Thread: Reds Top Prospects - August 2022 Edition

  1. #46
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    Re: Reds Top Prospects - August 2022 Edition

    If these catchers who canÂ’t hit would be at least Jim Sundberg or Jerry Grote good on defense that would be great. But theyÂ’re not and yet no one seems to ask why do you keep drafting them so high.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Same damn thing I wanted someone to ask Buckley about his middle infield fetish for hitters who barely made it to AAA. Yet year after year he filled those minors with not even Tom Lawless good enough to make the majors.


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  3. #47
    Daffy Duck RedTeamGo!'s Avatar
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    Re: Reds Top Prospects - August 2022 Edition

    Quote Originally Posted by Ohayou View Post
    Crazy how Hendrick went from a Top 5 guy to out of the Top 25 in less than a year. Hopefully he bounces back. He's barely 21, but the K issues are a huge concern.
    Hendrick is a bust. The guy has a career .210 BA across 600 plate appearances in the low minors. The odds of him figuring something out and hitting at the high minors and eventually majors is basically non-existent. I don't think he will ever even make it to AAA. He has struck out 235 times in those 600 plate appearances!

    I cannot imagine being 21 years old and already knowing you have failed at your life's calling. Has to be tough.
    What would you say.....ya do here?

  4. #48
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    Re: Reds Top Prospects - August 2022 Edition

    Quote Originally Posted by RedTeamGo! View Post
    Hendrick is a bust. The guy has a career .210 BA across 600 plate appearances in the low minors. The odds of him figuring something out and hitting at the high minors and eventually majors is basically non-existent. I don't think he will ever even make it to AAA. He has struck out 235 times in those 600 plate appearances!

    I cannot imagine being 21 years old and already knowing you have failed at your life's calling. Has to be tough.
    Yeah, but on the other hand he made more money doing it than I will in my lifetime.

    I am sure he can find a good hobby. Hope he was careful with his bonus checks.

  5. #49
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    Re: Reds Top Prospects - August 2022 Edition

    Quote Originally Posted by RedTeamGo! View Post
    Hendrick is a bust. The guy has a career .210 BA across 600 plate appearances in the low minors. The odds of him figuring something out and hitting at the high minors and eventually majors is basically non-existent. I don't think he will ever even make it to AAA. He has struck out 235 times in those 600 plate appearances!

    I cannot imagine being 21 years old and already knowing you have failed at your life's calling. Has to be tough.
    His contact numbers are truly awful, but at least he is showing some power. I suggest using some manufactured optimism, such as Joey Votto needing three years in class A and five years to show 20 HR power. His numbers were a pale comparison to Jay Bruce at the time who blazed a quick path through the minors. Look who turned out better!

  6. #50
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    Re: Reds Top Prospects - August 2022 Edition

    Hendrick just turned 21 a month ago. I'm willing to give him until this time next year to show he can hit at the A+ level. If he's still scuffling in August 2023 then it's probably time to break out the bust label. He has to reduce the K's in order to progress as a hitter.

  7. #51
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    Re: Reds Top Prospects - August 2022 Edition

    Quote Originally Posted by CaiGuy View Post
    Yeah, but on the other hand he made more money doing it than I will in my lifetime.

    I am sure he can find a good hobby. Hope he was careful with his bonus checks.
    Exactly. Sign me up to make $4 million dollars at 19 years old.

  8. #52
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    Re: Reds Top Prospects - August 2022 Edition

    Quote Originally Posted by RedTeamGo! View Post
    Hendrick is a bust. The guy has a career .210 BA across 600 plate appearances in the low minors. The odds of him figuring something out and hitting at the high minors and eventually majors is basically non-existent. I don't think he will ever even make it to AAA. He has struck out 235 times in those 600 plate appearances!

    I cannot imagine being 21 years old and already knowing you have failed at your life's calling. Has to be tough.
    Life’s calling? Lol. He’s 21. Baseball isn’t everything.

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  10. #53
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    Re: Reds Top Prospects - August 2022 Edition

    Little soon to declare Hendrick a bust. I’d give him a couple more seasons. But he has to see that he’s being squeezed out by better talent.
    “I think I throw the ball as hard as anyone. The ball just doesn't get there as fast.” — Eddie Bane

    “We know we're better than this ... but we can't prove it.” — Tony Gwynn

  11. #54
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    Re: Reds Top Prospects - August 2022 Edition

    Quote Originally Posted by RedTeamGo! View Post
    I cannot imagine being 21 years old and already knowing you have failed at your life's calling. Has to be tough.
    “A simple wrong would’ve done just fine”

    I think you’re right though. Lots of things can develop over time, but seldom does a guy dig his way out of huge contact issues in the lower minors.

  12. #55
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    Re: Reds Top Prospects - August 2022 Edition

    Quote Originally Posted by Fil3232 View Post
    Life’s calling? Lol. He’s 21. Baseball isn’t everything.
    I mean, it kind of is for someone who has spent their entire life working their ass off to get to this level? I didn't say baseball is everything. I guarantee this kid assumed he would be playing baseball for the next 2 decades when he was 18 and then moving on to something else within the game. All that looks over. He will be out of baseball by the time he is 23-25 and then what? Has to be a depressing feeling. And sorry, but just because the guy made a couple million dollars doesn't mean everything, either.
    What would you say.....ya do here?

  13. #56
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    Re: Reds Top Prospects - August 2022 Edition

    Quote Originally Posted by MikeS21 View Post
    Little soon to declare Hendrick a bust. I’d give him a couple more seasons. But he has to see that he’s being squeezed out by better talent.
    Way too soon. Hendrick just turned 21 in June. In his first year his walk rate was very high. He needs to get back to being more selective. He might also need to cut down on his swing.

    Even at this stage Hendrick is not one of these guys who swings at everything. He’s not a 3-4% BB type hitter. So I see hope for him. He needs major adjustment, it’s quite possible he can do that.

  14. #57
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    Re: Reds Top Prospects - August 2022 Edition

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Way too soon. Hendrick just turned 21 in June. In his first year his walk rate was very high. He needs to get back to being more selective. He might also need to cut down on his swing.

    Even at this stage Hendrick is not one of these guys who swings at everything. He’s not a 3-4% BB type hitter. So I see hope for him. He needs major adjustment, it’s quite possible he can do that.
    Not swinging at everything, but swinging and missing at everything he swings at in single A doesn’t scream good plate discipline to me.

    Even if the cut down swing makes significant contact gains, he’s gone from horrendous to merely bad, and now his lone power tool might not be special anymore. Not seeing a path forward for him unless there’s some huge mechanical thing holding him back that for some reason hasn’t been addressed yet.

  15. #58
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    Re: Reds Top Prospects - August 2022 Edition

    The k% really is so bad I lean towards what RTG is saying here. Like Juan Duran was more like a 30% guy and he had crazy contact issues since he would never stop growing. Isabel was around that 35-40% mark and could never get out of AA. Neither guy was really able to improve in these areas. Drew Stubbs was considered to have a "hole in his swing" and his minor league ratios were like 25% before getting more exposed in the majors and it growing to 30-40%. Suarez seemingly struck out in every atbat last year and only he was at 30%.

    Needless to say... ya he's only 21... but wow, the early returns really are frightening and foretelling of some really fundamental issues that raise concern whether he has the requisite skills to climb the mountain. Whether its bad speed, swing hitch, pitch recognition, or all of them combined, there is a gigantic amount of work that needs to be done just to get him to being a productive A ball hitter, let alone someone that can climb the ladder, and eventually become a productive platoon bat at the major league level.


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  17. #59
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    Re: Reds Top Prospects - August 2022 Edition

    Quote Originally Posted by RedTeamGo! View Post
    I mean, it kind of is for someone who has spent their entire life working their ass off to get to this level? I didn't say baseball is everything. I guarantee this kid assumed he would be playing baseball for the next 2 decades when he was 18 and then moving on to something else within the game. All that looks over. He will be out of baseball by the time he is 23-25 and then what? Has to be a depressing feeling. And sorry, but just because the guy made a couple million dollars doesn't mean everything, either.
    The guy will probably be a local legend for the rest of his life. He will probably be able to make gobs of money coaching and running camps for at least the next 20 years.

  18. #60
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    Re: Reds Top Prospects - August 2022 Edition

    Quote Originally Posted by Patrick Bateman View Post
    The k% really is so bad I lean towards what RTG is saying here. Like Juan Duran was more like a 30% guy and he had crazy contact issues since he would never stop growing. Isabel was around that 35-40% mark and could never get out of AA. Neither guy was really able to improve in these areas. Drew Stubbs was considered to have a "hole in his swing" and his minor league ratios were like 25% before getting more exposed in the majors and it growing to 30-40%. Suarez seemingly struck out in every atbat last year and only he was at 30%.

    Needless to say... ya he's only 21... but wow, the early returns really are frightening and foretelling of some really fundamental issues that raise concern whether he has the requisite skills to climb the mountain. Whether its bad speed, swing hitch, pitch recognition, or all of them combined, there is a gigantic amount of work that needs to be done just to get him to being a productive A ball hitter, let alone someone that can climb the ladder, and eventually become a productive platoon bat at the major league level.
    It's not like I've done an exhaustive search but the number of guys that have had a K rate around even 30% in A ball (Hendrick is over 40% this season) that went on to find success in the majors is not long. This is one of the concerns I have about Elly De La Cruz but at least he's having great success otherwise. The problem with Hendrick is that he looks mediocre to poor in just about every aspect of his offensive game. We've all read about his power tool. His ISO at A+ is .206 and otherwise under .200 in his short career. I guess that's fine but it's certainly not elite. As a comparison, Joey Gallo (the closest comp I could find from a K rate perspective in the low minors) had a 37% K rate at A ball, but really displayed elite power with 38HR and an ISO of .365. De La Cruz's had a 31% K rate at A+ but an ISO of .306. Those elite other traits are the reason I have hope for De La Cruz and why a guy like Gallo could sustain his offensive game as he progressed. Hendrick has none of that. His one seemingly good trait last year, a 19% BB rate, has cratered to 7.4% this year in A+. That ain't good. I'd love to not give up on Hendrick, especially at the young age of 21. But there isn't a whole lot to inspire hope and the track record for guys with similar performance is almost universally abysmal.
    How do we know he's not Mel Torme?


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