2023 Reds

[LeatherPants]

If it were just a baseball building matter, I might agree. But my hunch is they want to avoid another season of ridicule. They want to increase attendance. So I figure Reds will want to get to around .500 relatively quickly.

But as I said, this is the big question about the off-season. You may be right. Disappointment is the hallmark of most Reds’ off-seasons.

The dirty little secret is that with a low enough payroll, the teams don't need much attendance to still make huge profits because of the broadcast rights and revenue sharing. Fans will start coming back when they are good again, because they almost always do. The Reds know this.

- - - Updated - - -

The Reds have a plausible rotation with Greene, Lodolo, Ashcraft, Williamson, Overton, Dunn.

They don’t have a plausible bullpen.

Neither is likely to be a finished product by next season. I won’t say addressing the pen is much more important, but it’s not less important. Both should be addressed for next season.

Greene, Lodolo, and Ashcraft are nowhere near ready to be the backbone of a rotation. They are going to be innings limited again next year.

[Kc61]

The Reds used to sign guys like Jared Hughes. Middle reliever, ground ball pitcher, reasonable quality veteran.. David Hernandez though he eventually struggled.

Now they sign Doolittle and Strickland, guys who cost (IIRC) under $2 million. Among the cheapest FA relievers around.

Part of their new plan has been, so far, to be extremely cheap with relievers. It has hurt then, especially early in the season when they are trying to parse through a dozen guys with a question mark.

They have to upgrade this. I’d rather see them start now with a couple of two year contracts. Rome wasn’t built in one off-season, but it’s a depth area and you can add year by year.

[JCM11]

The Reds have a plausible rotation with Greene, Lodolo, Ashcraft, Williamson, Overton, Dunn.

They don’t have a plausible bullpen.

Neither is likely to be a finished product by next season. I won’t say addressing the pen is much more important, but it’s not less important. Both should be addressed for next season.

Ashcraft is the only SP in that group I feel confident saying will put up a good complete season in the rotation next year. Lodolo should pitch well if he's healthy, but that's no guarantee. Plus I think it's unlikely he'll have his innings built up enough to go a full season next year. Greene should be better in his second year, but he's trying to overcome a shoulder issue after throwing 100 innings this year. The Reds need at minimum another Sonny Gray type addition to the rotation. Williamson, Overton, and Dunn are nothing but question mark depth pieces at this point.

[Kc61]

The dirty little secret is that with a low enough payroll, the teams don't need much attendance to still make huge profits because of the broadcast rights and revenue sharing. Fans will start coming back when they are good again, because they almost always do. The Reds know this.

- - - Updated - - -



Greene, Lodolo, and Ashcraft are nowhere near ready to be the backbone of a rotation. They are going to be innings limited again next year.

It’s more than eking out a profit from attendance. It’s avoiding alienation of fans. I expect that “where you gonna go” will eventually lead Reds to spending a bit more to undo the PR and reputational damage.

As for Greene, Lodolo, and Ashcraft they are good enough to lead the 2023 rotation. It’ll still be a young, building rotation. Would like a solid MOR veteran too.

[Bourgeois Zee]

The Reds have a plausible rotation with Greene, Lodolo, Ashcraft, Williamson, Overton, Dunn.

They don’t have a plausible bullpen.

With health? They've got some upside.

The issue is that you can't depend on health.

BTW, signing a real starter to a fairly high dollar free agent deal means Dunn can move to the bullpen. It might also mean at least one of Levi Stoudt or Brandon Williamson breaks into the majors as a relief arm.

I'd like to see them acquire both a (very) good starter and at least one (very) good (and proven) bullpen guy. I'm guessing they're going to balk at that (because they're penurious buttheads). If they do refuse to spend that cash, a starting pitcher, IMO, rises all boats.

[mth123]

The Reds have a plausible rotation with Greene, Lodolo, Ashcraft, Williamson, Overton, Dunn.

They don’t have a plausible bullpen.

Neither is likely to be a finished product by next season. I won’t say addressing the pen is much more important, but it’s not less important. Both should be addressed for next season.

I don't think that's a plausible rotation. The ace has an ERA over 5. Lodolo has missed significant chunks of two seasons in a row with back issues. Ashcraft looks like a decent 3 or 4. Overton is a complete unknown (don't let his 24 innings at Age 29 followed by a long injury lay-off fool you). Dunn looks like a disaster and is coming back from a major arm injury. The next wave is a bunch of strike challenged starters like Williamson and Boyle. Get starters and push those guys to the bullpen or AAA as depth. The "chase my pitch that I can't really throw for a strike" approach works better in relief where hitters don't get multiple looks in a game or even a series.

[Alpha Zero]

I don't think that's a plausible rotation. The ace has an ERA over 5. Lodolo has missed significant chunks of two seasons in a row with back issues. Ashcraft looks like a decent 3 or 4. Overton is a complete unknown (don't let his 24 innings at Age 29 followed by a long injury lay-off fool you). Dunn looks like a disaster and is coming back from a major arm injury. The next wave is a bunch of strike challenged starters like Williamson and Boyle. Get starters and push those guys to the bullpen or AAA as depth. The "chase my pitch that I can't really throw for a strike" approach works better in relief where hitters don't get multiple looks in a game or even a series.

I agree that the Reds really need to sign a good SP to help front the staff in 2023. A vet like Bassit, Taillon, Anderson, Cueto, or even Kluber could guide the staff and eat some innings with reasonable results. Let the prospects fight for the 5th spot and fill in when the inevitable injuries come.

[Kc61]

I don't think that's a plausible rotation. The ace has an ERA over 5. Lodolo has missed significant chunks of two seasons in a row with back issues. Ashcraft looks like a decent 3 or 4. Overton is a complete unknown (don't let his 24 innings at Age 29 followed by a long injury lay-off fool you). Dunn looks like a disaster and is coming back from a major arm injury. The next wave is a bunch of strike challenged starters like Williamson and Boyle. Get starters and push those guys to the bullpen or AAA as depth. The "chase my pitch that I can't really throw for a strike" approach works better in relief where hitters don't get multiple looks in a game or even a series.

The Reds’ group is a plausible rotation for a building team, which the Reds will be in 2023. Three keepers and a few BOR candidates. Add a solid MOR to help make progress.

The Reds’ bullpen is not plausible for any big league team at any stage of development. Except maybe tanking.

[LeatherPants]

The Reds’ group is a plausible rotation for a building team, which the Reds will be in 2023. Three keepers and a few BOR candidates. Add a solid MOR to help make progress.

The Reds’ bullpen is not plausible for any big league team at any stage of development. Except maybe tanking.

The Reds will need to cover about 810 innings from starters next year, at least. To date, Greene, Lodolo, and Ashcraft have combined for about 250 this year. They are going to need way more help than that.

[Alpha Zero]

The Reds will need to cover about 810 innings from starters next year, at least. To date, Greene, Lodolo, and Ashcraft have combined for about 250 this year. They are going to need way more help than that.

It’s nearly 300 IP between those 3 if you include minor league innings. And the year is not yet done. I think it’s fair to expect something close to 400 innings out of that trio given reasonable health in 2023. Get a good vet that is going to get you 150-180 and let prospects soak up the other 200+ innings.

[mth123]

The Reds’ group is a plausible rotation for a building team, which the Reds will be in 2023. Three keepers and a few BOR candidates. Add a solid MOR to help make progress.

The Reds’ bullpen is not plausible for any big league team at any stage of development. Except maybe tanking.

There is no question that the Reds need major talent infusions in all areas - starting, relief, middle of the line-up pop, OF play and guys who can get on base, but I don't see Diaz, Antone, Sims, Santillan and SanMartin any less plausible than these rotation guys and I'm on record as thinking Antone after 2 TJs is a complete question and that I really don't see it with Sims.

Still the single best improvement this team can make that has the most impact is a solid starting pitcher who can not only lead these guys in 2023, but be part of the rotation for the next 3 or 4 years. We've seen the domino effect of a starter who can go out there and throw a good game most of the time. Without it early in the season they were 3 and 22 and getting blown out nearly every day. Since they traded it, they've been near unwatchable. In between, the other starters started throwing better and they played close to .500 ball. A good starting pitcher restores order to a team's staff more than any other factor and a bad one throws the entire staff into disarray.

That doesn't mean I'm happy with the bullpen (far from it), I just think the highest priority should be the biggest impact and I believe that comes from upgrading awful starting pitching to competent starting pitching. I have no illusions that they will do anything to become better than competent.

I also believe the future of the rotation is already here in the form of Greene, Lodolo and Ashcraft. There is no one else coming in the next 3 years who I think can join those guys. I do think guys like Boyle, Williamson and others might become effective relievers. Guys Like McLain, De La Cruz, Marte, Encarnacion-Strand, Steer and maybe McGarry should fill some holes on the position side. No one is coming for that rotation - maybe Petty in 3 years or so. By then it will be time to start replacing the Greene, Lodolo, Ashcraft trio.

[Kc61]

The Reds will need to cover about 810 innings from starters next year, at least. To date, Greene, Lodolo, and Ashcraft have combined for about 250 this year. They are going to need way more help than that.

The Reds can get innings coverage with cheap depth. That is not the main issue. Nobody is following the Reds to see if they can cover innings.

The issue is building a winner. The rotation is off to a good start. Three keepers. Then. Dunn, Williamson, Overton as possible BORs. Add more, sure.

But the bullpen is a serious problem. It’s Diaz, a prime candidate for overuse. Antone if he’s recovered from TJ2. What else? Everyone else is a big ?

They won’t build a bullpen overnight. Time to begin.

[Alpha Zero]

The Reds can get innings coverage with cheap depth. That is not the main issue. Nobody is following the Reds to see if they can cover innings.

The issue is building a winner. The rotation is off to a good start. Three keepers. Then. Dunn, Williamson, Overton as possible BORs. Add more, sure.

But the bullpen is a serious problem. It’s Diaz, a prime candidate for overuse. Antone if he’s recovered from TJ2. What else? Everyone else is a big ?

They won’t build a bullpen overnight. Time to begin.

Agree with this. But I would not be looking at high dollar options like the other Diaz. More modest guys who have had a lot of success in setup roles to supplement Diaz should be the targets. Guys like Mychal Givens. Get a couples guys of that ilk to stabilize the 7th and 8th. I’m thinking something like this:

CL Alexis Diaz
SU Mychal Givens
SU Brad Hand
SU Tejay Antone
MR Luis Cessa
MR Reiver Sanmartin
MR Art Warren/Lucas Sims/whoever
LR Justin Dunn

I think that’s a reasonably talented BP that probably only adds ~$10M to payroll.

[Kc61]

Agree with this. But I would not be looking at high dollar options like the other Diaz. More modest guys who have had a lot of success in setup roles to supplement Diaz should be the targets. Guys like Mychal Givens. Get a couples guys of that ilk to stabilize the 7th and 8th. I’m thinking something like this:

CL Alexis Diaz
SU Mychal Givens
SU Brad Hand
SU Tejay Antone
MR Luis Cessa
MR Reiver Sanmartin
MR Art Warren/Lucas Sims/whoever
LR Justin Dunn

I think that’s a reasonably talented BP that probably only adds ~$10M to payroll.

This is a good start, but Reds shouldn’t be limited to $10 million for the entire pen. Not saying they need big ticket closers at over $10 million per. But if they keep skimping on the pen, which covers over 40% of their innings pitched, they will likely continue to be lousy.

[HokieRed]

On the position player side, one question I think they'll need to face is whether to try to bring back Donovan Solano, who's pretty clearly the best player on the roster right now. He'll have no trouble getting offers, I suspect, even at 35. Do you bring him back? If so, at what price? I'd certainly like to see him back, but I don't know that that's the best way to spend 4-5 million bucks given all the other needs.