2023 Reds

[Chip R]

I agree with the sentiment, but no way this FO swallows $18 million.

We've heard this before and it's usually not true. The Reds just cut Shogo earlier this year. Granted, that's not $18M but it was still a significant amount. They are going to have to pay him whether he's cut or sits on the bench.

[InsaneinthBrame]

You guys are really scaring me as to direction you think this team is heading. Because you are sounding like we are going for lets line the owners pockets mode aka Pirate mode

[CySeymour]

Reds getting Trevor Hoffman out of retirement would be huge.

Well he was originally signed by the Reds, so...

[Old school 1983]

You guys are really scaring me as to direction you think this team is heading. Because you are sounding like we are going for lets line the owners pockets mode aka Pirate mode

Being cynical is a thing that will be around here until the Reds have another winning season. If the Reds were in Pirate mode Moose would have been attached to Castillo or Mahle. Or to India or Stephenson.

[Falls City Beer]

Being cynical is a thing that will be around here until the Reds have another winning season. If the Reds were in Pirate mode Moose would have been attached to Castillo or Mahle. Or to India or Stephenson.

That’s not really a solid assumption. I’m sure they asked teams to take Moose and were rebuffed.

[Falls City Beer]

You guys are really scaring me as to direction you think this team is heading. Because you are sounding like we are going for lets line the owners pockets mode aka Pirate mode

I can’t put a dollar figure on their 2023 budget, but I can assure you it won’t be bigger than this year’s. Probably a good bit smaller. So given that (and the unlikelihood of major advancements from the farm by next season), I suspect their 2023 win loss will look pretty Pirates-esque. Why would you believe otherwise?

[Old school 1983]

That’s not really a solid assumption. I’m sure they asked teams to take Moose and were rebuffed.

You’re sure huh? Speaking of assumptions.

[Falls City Beer]

You’re sure huh? Speaking of assumptions.

I can’t imagine they didn’t in the rush of a massive payroll slice and dice. What other possible reason to keep him? Unless for some reason you think the front office values his contribution/contract.

[corkedbat]

Who thinks they might go hardcore challenge thy hitters mode and have De La Cruz, Encarnacion-Strand, Steer, and maybe even Marte on the opening day roster.

Not sure about opening the season, but I could certainly see them closing the year with something like that. Would love to see Barrero hit well enough for them to entrust him with the full-timer SS spot and deal Farmer, but don't see it. I think Kyle will be around until the deadline. I also don't see a massive Opening Day influx of rookies, but rather a gradual one-by-one influx throughout the season with the big makeover done by OD '24.

[Kinsm]

Cleaned that roster up a little - say goodbye to Trevor (also decided to move around the outfielders).
--Roster count is about to change again with the purchase of Dugger (39 + 8 injured = ultimately needing to cut 15 to add Rule 5 prospects) - just pretend I have Dugger listed above in the Waivers category.


I wanted to delve into the payroll a little deeper.
***Made some rough guesstimates of arb figures, though they should be fairly close (boost in league minimum in the new CBA may make them a little low).

Votto 25.00M
Moose 18.00M
K. Farmer 4.50M (ARB)
Senzel 2.00M (ARB)
Hoffman 1.75M (ARB)
Sims 1.50M (ARB)
Antone 1.00M (ARB)
13 players @ League Minimum .72M
14 players @ Split MiLB Minimum .12M
6 Free Agents @ ???

That's roughly 65M + ??? for FA's

I for one don't see this club eclipsing the 100M$ payroll mark next year (I still think the Castellini's are set up well to sell in the near future).

Assuming less than 100M, that means a maximum of 35M for 6 FA's. None of the top 50 FA's are coming here this winter, those who think that's a possibility I believe you're sorely mistaken.
....I suspect something like this will happen this winter -->
approximately 6M for each of the two OF FA spots (about what they spent for Naquin and Pham)
approximately 3M for a C-BN spot (I'm really hoping they fix this roster spot this offseason and we don't see Garcia and junk again)
at most approximately 9M for an innings eating SP FA (about what they spent for Minor) - could see this figure being much less
and approximately 3M for each of the two RP FA spots.

They'll have another 5M locked up via Minor's buyout and Griffey's deferred salary and another 15-20M in player benefits on top of that.
--And like always they'll add a bunch of guys on minor league deals with spring invites that pay them close to league minimum if they were to make it (i.e. Drury 2.0)

(And for anyone who was wondering - ARB estimates for my presumed nontenders)
B. Farmer 2.25M
Cessa 2.00M
Almora 2.00M
Garcia 1.00M
Aquino 1.00M

[JCM11]

I think they could spend around 30 in FA. It's possible Farmer or Senzel(maybe both) get moved in the off season so that could free up 2-6 mil. If Barrero plays well these last few months I could think of better ways for the Reds to spend 4.5 million than paying Farmer to collect splinters next year. I think McLain should be on the 40 man at some point next year maybe even by opening day.

[corkedbat]

If the Free Agent market didn't seem so meager and there were more targets to keep the big boys busy, I might be tempted to off Joey Gallo a contract somewhat similar to the one they gave Castellanos. I know I've said I wouldn't offer a "voidable years" deal, but Gallo would be one I'd be willing to make an exception for. I like the chances that the GAB would give him a massive boost over next two years or so, making him (at minimum) a very useful TDL chip to fill out the rebuild and in the meantime put a big bat in the middle of the lineup, taking some pressure off the young'uns.

I realize this is a moot point (even if the FO would spend the money) if for no other reason than the complete lack of power bats available in the market, meaning a big player will gamble and offer him big money (if the Yanks don't re-up him themselves).

While I don't see them signing a Judge or even a Gallo, I don't agree with those that spend any money. While it won't be big money to most franchises, I can see them doling out a contract of two moderately significant by Reds standards IF they can find the right targets, to maybe take some pressure off from the fans/media. I do agree there won't be any 8-10 year deals and I'd be pretty surprised with anything more than 3-4 years.

[CaiGuy]

Cleaned that roster up a little - say goodbye to Trevor (also decided to move around the outfielders).
--Roster count is about to change again with the purchase of Dugger (39 + 8 injured = ultimately needing to cut 15 to add Rule 5 prospects) - just pretend I have Dugger listed above in the Waivers category.


I wanted to delve into the payroll a little deeper.
***Made some rough guesstimates of arb figures, though they should be fairly close (boost in league minimum in the new CBA may make them a little low).

Votto 25.00M
Moose 18.00M
K. Farmer 4.50M (ARB)
Senzel 2.00M (ARB)
Hoffman 1.75M (ARB)
Sims 1.50M (ARB)
Antone 1.00M (ARB)
13 players @ League Minimum .72M
14 players @ Split MiLB Minimum .12M
6 Free Agents @ ???

That's roughly 65M + ??? for FA's

I for one don't see this club eclipsing the 100M$ payroll mark next year (I still think the Castellini's are set up well to sell in the near future).

Assuming less than 100M, that means a maximum of 35M for 6 FA's. None of the top 50 FA's are coming here this winter, those who think that's a possibility I believe you're sorely mistaken.
....I suspect something like this will happen this winter -->
approximately 6M for each of the two OF FA spots (about what they spent for Naquin and Pham)
approximately 3M for a C-BN spot (I'm really hoping they fix this roster spot this offseason and we don't see Garcia and junk again)
at most approximately 9M for an innings eating SP FA (about what they spent for Minor) - could see this figure being much less
and approximately 3M for each of the two RP FA spots.

They'll have another 5M locked up via Minor's buyout and Griffey's deferred salary and another 15-20M in player benefits on top of that.
--And like always they'll add a bunch of guys on minor league deals with spring invites that pay them close to league minimum if they were to make it (i.e. Drury 2.0)

(And for anyone who was wondering - ARB estimates for my presumed nontenders)
B. Farmer 2.25M
Cessa 2.00M
Almora 2.00M
Garcia 1.00M
Aquino 1.00M

Great summary and this outcome seems very probable. One really minor quibble is that Minor's buy-out is being covered by KC. I also think that Barrero will be the starting SS, at least to start, and that the rest of the IF's rotate a bit. I hope that Reynolds, who has been OKish but also really lucky, isn't any kind of lock to make the team.

I could also see them brining in Benintendi (just have a feeling) in lieu of 2 FA OF's, and backfilling RF internally with some kind of platoon.

[Big Klu]

If the Free Agent market didn't seem so meager and there were more targets to keep the big boys busy, I might be tempted to off Joey Gallo a contract somewhat similar to the one they gave Castellanos. I know I've said I wouldn't offer a "voidable years" deal, but Gallo would be one I'd be willing to make an exception for. I like the chances that the GAB would give him a massive boost over next two years or so, making him (at minimum) a very useful TDL chip to fill out the rebuild and in the meantime put a big bat in the middle of the lineup, taking some pressure off the young'uns.

I realize this is a moot point (even if the FO would spend the money) if for no other reason than the complete lack of power bats available in the market, meaning a big player will gamble and offer him big money (if the Yanks don't re-up him themselves).

While I don't see them signing a Judge or even a Gallo, I don't agree with those that spend any money. While it won't be big money to most franchises, I can see them doling out a contract of two moderately significant by Reds standards IF they can find the right targets, to maybe take some pressure off from the fans/media. I do agree there won't be any 8-10 year deals and I'd be pretty surprised with anything more than 3-4 years.

The words, "Joey Gallo" and "contract", conjure a completely different picture in my mind.

[Kc61]

If the Free Agent market didn't seem so meager and there were more targets to keep the big boys busy, I might be tempted to off Joey Gallo a contract somewhat similar to the one they gave Castellanos. I know I've said I wouldn't offer a "voidable years" deal, but Gallo would be one I'd be willing to make an exception for. I like the chances that the GAB would give him a massive boost over next two years or so, making him (at minimum) a very useful TDL chip to fill out the rebuild and in the meantime put a big bat in the middle of the lineup, taking some pressure off the young'uns.

I realize this is a moot point (even if the FO would spend the money) if for no other reason than the complete lack of power bats available in the market, meaning a big player will gamble and offer him big money (if the Yanks don't re-up him themselves).

While I don't see them signing a Judge or even a Gallo, I don't agree with those that spend any money. While it won't be big money to most franchises, I can see them doling out a contract of two moderately significant by Reds standards IF they can find the right targets, to maybe take some pressure off from the fans/media. I do agree there won't be any 8-10 year deals and I'd be pretty surprised with anything more than 3-4 years.

The Reds undoubtedly could spend on a few key additions. Not from the scrap heap but real players. I’ve mentioned Benintendi, I like him for Reds. A couple solid veteran relievers, non-closers. A good secondary catcher to help support Stephenson’s role. Longer than one year contracts, get a few good vets signed up for awhile.

Could live with stopgaps beyond that. Ok, defer on a starting pitcher, get another stop gap but a better fit than Minor.

But with rebuilds teams often have an excuse to be cheap. Well, we’re not ready to spend yet. My hope is, as you say, Reds will want to take some pressure off from the fan base and actually will start building up the team with veterans as well as with prospects.