2023 Reds

[HokieRed]

I think they need to be very careful in evaluating his injury status, but a starting pitcher who might work for them would be Wade Miley, who I suspect could be gotten pretty inexpensively. He'll be 36 but might have one go round still in him. Next year is the year to try him, not this year, as I pointed out numerous times during the offseason, only to be told that was wrong. He's been on an alternating pattern for quite a number of years--if he throws 160, the next year is a big dropoff. But next year he may again have a rested arm. I hope they will look into this as a serious consideration, though I wonder if at 36 he won't be able to repeat the upside year another time.

[InsaneinthBrame]

Attachment 18634

Cleaned that roster up a little - say goodbye to Trevor (also decided to move around the outfielders).
--Roster count is about to change again with the purchase of Dugger (39 + 8 injured = ultimately needing to cut 15 to add Rule 5 prospects) - just pretend I have Dugger listed above in the Waivers category.


I wanted to delve into the payroll a little deeper.
***Made some rough guesstimates of arb figures, though they should be fairly close (boost in league minimum in the new CBA may make them a little low).

Votto 25.00M
Moose 18.00M
K. Farmer 4.50M (ARB)
Senzel 2.00M (ARB)
Hoffman 1.75M (ARB)
Sims 1.50M (ARB)
Antone 1.00M (ARB)
13 players @ League Minimum .72M
14 players @ Split MiLB Minimum .12M
6 Free Agents @ ???

That's roughly 65M + ??? for FA's

I for one don't see this club eclipsing the 100M$ payroll mark next year (I still think the Castellini's are set up well to sell in the near future).

Assuming less than 100M, that means a maximum of 35M for 6 FA's. None of the top 50 FA's are coming here this winter, those who think that's a possibility I believe you're sorely mistaken.
....I suspect something like this will happen this winter -->
approximately 6M for each of the two OF FA spots (about what they spent for Naquin and Pham)
approximately 3M for a C-BN spot (I'm really hoping they fix this roster spot this offseason and we don't see Garcia and junk again)
at most approximately 9M for an innings eating SP FA (about what they spent for Minor) - could see this figure being much less
and approximately 3M for each of the two RP FA spots.

They'll have another 5M locked up via Minor's buyout and Griffey's deferred salary and another 15-20M in player benefits on top of that.
--And like always they'll add a bunch of guys on minor league deals with spring invites that pay them close to league minimum if they were to make it (i.e. Drury 2.0)

(And for anyone who was wondering - ARB estimates for my presumed nontenders)
B. Farmer 2.25M
Cessa 2.00M
Almora 2.00M
Garcia 1.00M
Aquino 1.00M

Nice work
I think there is one flaw if you are looking at what happens when they have to add players because of rule 5. The spots you have will be mostly filled by the non tender waiver guys.
For FA additions a few will be non roster invites that make team especially back up catcher they will get roster spots because players will get injured and go on 40
Cessa and Aquino will likely be tendered. I also see Lopez Warren and Fairfield on the 40
You also may see trades

So I think just projecting the initial cut down to 40 without having spots open for FA is a better exercise because that is the next big roster point.

Love the dollar breakdown will be very disappointed with a 100M payroll

[Kinsm]

Nice work
I think there is one flaw if you are looking at what happens when they have to add players because of rule 5. The spots you have will be mostly filled by the non tender waiver guys.
For FA additions a few will be non roster invites that make team especially back up catcher they will get roster spots because players will get injured and go on 40
Cessa and Aquino will likely be tendered. I also see Lopez Warren and Fairfield on the 40
You also may see trades

So I think just projecting the initial cut down to 40 without having spots open for FA is a better exercise because that is the next big roster point.

Love the dollar breakdown will be very disappointed with a 100M payroll

??? What's the flaw you're seeing?

Are you suggesting that some of the guys DFA'd to add those Rule 5 players in mid November might be listed as NonTender candidates on the above roster? If so, well yeah - of course. I could easily see a player like Almora, Aquino, Farmer, or Garcia placed on waivers the moment the season ends when they re-add the guys on the 60 Day-IL (just like DeShields in 2021 and Jankowski in 2020) rather than waiting till the actual tender deadline to jettison him/them. I wasn't suggesting that they are going to DFA those dozen players I have listed under waivers, on any specific day. I wrote "periodically" insinuating that those players would be the ones likely to go as roster spots are needed. Sure, any one or more of those guys could conceivably stay on the 40 man well into spring when the Reds are likely to grab what's remaining of the picked over FA's - finally needing to open a roster spot.

If Cessa and Aquino are tendered contracts (which I find highly unlikely) then the Reds probably won't be signing 6 FA's this off-season and their payroll will be even less than I think it will be. If Lopez, Warren, and Fairchild make it all winter on the 40 man roster then again the Reds probably won't be signing 6 FA's this off-season, that or you'll see other guys on the roster DFA'd at some point in their place (maybe Overton, or Solomon, or even Cerda).

Aquino was outrighted off the 40 man 5 months ago, the only reason he is back on it today is because of 26 man roster requirements two weeks later (COVID restricted trip to TOR) and subsequent injuries all year. There is no reason to tender Aquino a contract that would pay him even one dollar more than league minimum and require a valuable roster spot be spent on him when you can probably re-sign him or any similar player to him to a minor league contract this winter. And Cessa has a 6+ ERA, I have a hard time seeing them paying him via arbitration to return, maybe if he were only in line to make .75 to 1M$ next season but he isn't.

Who are they going to trade? Can't trade Farmer, not unless Barrero proves he can hit big league pitching in the last two months or they sign/claim another big league proven SS at some point in the near future. Same with Senzel, can't trade him, they have no one else who can play regularly in CF. I suppose you could see Hoffman moved, but what would be the point? He's not going to bring back much and it just makes one more hole in the pen. The only possible trade I see happening this winter would be Moose traded for some other equally horrible contract.

October 5th is the final day of the season. Between then and 5 days after the world series ends they'll remove the 6 free agents from the roster and re-add the 8 on the 60 day dl (that will actually require one more move because that puts them at 41 now that Dugger has been purchased). Wouldn't be completely shocked to see them make a waiver claim around that time. Between that day and the 18th of November they have to clear a minimum of 8 more spots. From then on it's a 1 for 1 scenario, every player you sign/claim/trade for you must waive one.

[corkedbat]

First priority for 2023 -- don't start the season 3-22.

[OldFashionedRed]

First priority for 2023 -- don't start the season 3-22.

I think it's to address the bullpen. The team can't score, but they lost quite a few games when they did score, because of the bullpen.

[corkedbat]

I think it's to address the bullpen. The team can't score, but they lost quite a few games when they did score, because of the bullpen.

Been a Reds fan since the mid-'60's. They never seemed to have a deep stable of starters, but always seemed to come up with great bullpens quality depth. Got so that I pretty much took churning out sub 3.00 relievers (across multiple seasons) for granted. That's why it mystifies me how it seems such a gargantuan asks for them to come up with more than a guy or two for even a couple of seasons.

I'm just praying Diaz can duplicate this year's success and Tejay can return strong from surgery at some point in '23 (although I expect it to be some time in '24 before he's fully back. Hoping for Santillan to regain some of his promise and I might gamble on a bounce back season by re-signing Cessa for a season. I'd probably give Hoffman (Sims?), a shot in the long role, but beyond Diaz and a healthy Antone, not sure I feel that secure with any of them.

Younger RH guys like Kuhnel, Hendrix, Moreta, Duarte, Solomon, Warren and possibly Gibaut should be back for another shot, but that doesn't really give me any warm & fuzzies. I guess righty arms like Phillips, Stoudt, Byrne, Nutof & Garia might get their first shot while hopefully from the left side, at least one of Sanmartin, Abbott (if not starting), Kravetz and Fisher can be competent. With a strong first half maybe even Boyle, Bennett, Benschoter or Sandridge (L) could possibly be options as well.

All-in-all though, not a pretty picture. That's why I agree that if they're gonna spend any '22 offseason $$$, it should be on a right AND a left-handed high-leverage guy (and even setup guys from each side as well if possible).

[Old school 1983]

Been a Reds fan since the mid-'60's. They never seemed to have a deep stable of starters, but always seemed to come up with great bullpens quality depth. Got so that I pretty much took churning out sub 3.00 relievers (across multiple seasons) for granted. That's why it mystifies me how it seems such a gargantuan asks for them to come up with more than a guy or two for even a couple of seasons.

I'm just praying Diaz can duplicate this year's success and Tejay can return strong from surgery at some point in '23 (although I expect it to be some time in '24 before he's fully back. Hoping for Santillan to regain some of his promise and I might gamble on a bounce back season by re-signing Cessa for a season. I'd probably give Hoffman (Sims?), a shot in the long role, but beyond Diaz and a healthy Antone, not sure I feel that secure with any of them.

Younger RH guys like Kuhnel, Hendrix, Moreta, Duarte, Solomon, Warren and possibly Gibaut should be back for another shot, but that doesn't really give me any warm & fuzzies. I guess righty arms like Phillips, Stoudt, Byrne, Nutof & Garia might get their first shot while hopefully from the left side, at least one of Sanmartin, Abbott (if not starting), Kravetz and Fisher can be competent. With a strong first half maybe even Boyle, Bennett, Benschoter or Sandridge (L) could possibly be options as well.

All-in-all though, not a pretty picture. That's why I agree that if they're gonna spend any '22 offseason $$$, it should be on a right AND a left-handed high-leverage guy (and even setup guys from each side as well if possible).

KC was supposedly shopping Barlow and Staumont at the deadline. See if a trade can be made.

[schroomytunes]

OK I'll play with this one:

1b- Votto
2b- India
SS- Barrero
3b- Farmer
C- Stephenson
CF- Senzel
DH- Moose
LF- Benentendi (FA)
RF- Fraley

Bench:

Utility- Steer
C- Romine
OF-Grossman (FA)
OF- Almora
2b/SS- Solano (FA)

Starters:

1) Lodolo
2) Greene
3) Ashcraft
4) Kuhl (FA) innings eater
5) Overton/Williamson

Bullpen

1) Diaz
2) Antone
3) SanMartin-L
4) Hoffman
5) Santillian
6) Cessa
7) Dunn
8) Jake McGee-L (FA)

I dont see us spending much this offseason, other than on Benintendi as a modest contract to keep fan interest and build for 24, but I do think they bring in some buy low veterans to help stabilize the roster ( grossman, McGee, Solano, and Kuhl)

[mth123]

My turn,

C- Stephenson
1B - Votto
2B - India
SS - Barrero
3B - Steer
LF - Acquisition
CF - Senzel
RF - Acquisition
DH - Acquisition

C - Acquisition
U - Farmer
U - Reynolds
OF - Almora

SP1 - acquisition
SP2 - Lodolo
SP3 - Greene
SP 4 - Ashcraft
SP5 - Acquisition

Cl - Diaz
SU - Antone???
LRP - SanMartin
MR - Santillan
MR - Acquisition
MR - Acquisition
MR - Acquisition
LR - Hoffman

DFA - Everybody else who appeared in a game this year that's still on the roster.

[InsaneinthBrame]

??? What's the flaw you're seeing?

Are you suggesting that some of the guys DFA'd to add those Rule 5 players in mid November might be listed as NonTender candidates on the above roster? If so, well yeah - of course. I could easily see a player like Almora, Aquino, Farmer, or Garcia placed on waivers the moment the season ends when they re-add the guys on the 60 Day-IL (just like DeShields in 2021 and Jankowski in 2020) rather than waiting till the actual tender deadline to jettison him/them. I wasn't suggesting that they are going to DFA those dozen players I have listed under waivers, on any specific day. I wrote "periodically" insinuating that those players would be the ones likely to go as roster spots are needed. Sure, any one or more of those guys could conceivably stay on the 40 man well into spring when the Reds are likely to grab what's remaining of the picked over FA's - finally needing to open a roster spot.

If Cessa and Aquino are tendered contracts (which I find highly unlikely) then the Reds probably won't be signing 6 FA's this off-season and their payroll will be even less than I think it will be. If Lopez, Warren, and Fairchild make it all winter on the 40 man roster then again the Reds probably won't be signing 6 FA's this off-season, that or you'll see other guys on the roster DFA'd at some point in their place (maybe Overton, or Solomon, or even Cerda).

Aquino was outrighted off the 40 man 5 months ago, the only reason he is back on it today is because of 26 man roster requirements two weeks later (COVID restricted trip to TOR) and subsequent injuries all year. There is no reason to tender Aquino a contract that would pay him even one dollar more than league minimum and require a valuable roster spot be spent on him when you can probably re-sign him or any similar player to him to a minor league contract this winter. And Cessa has a 6+ ERA, I have a hard time seeing them paying him via arbitration to return, maybe if he were only in line to make .75 to 1M$ next season but he isn't.

Who are they going to trade? Can't trade Farmer, not unless Barrero proves he can hit big league pitching in the last two months or they sign/claim another big league proven SS at some point in the near future. Same with Senzel, can't trade him, they have no one else who can play regularly in CF. I suppose you could see Hoffman moved, but what would be the point? He's not going to bring back much and it just makes one more hole in the pen. The only possible trade I see happening this winter would be Moose traded for some other equally horrible contract.

October 5th is the final day of the season. Between then and 5 days after the world series ends they'll remove the 6 free agents from the roster and re-add the 8 on the 60 day dl (that will actually require one more move because that puts them at 41 now that Dugger has been purchased). Wouldn't be completely shocked to see them make a waiver claim around that time. Between that day and the 18th of November they have to clear a minimum of 8 more spots. From then on it's a 1 for 1 scenario, every player you sign/claim/trade for you must waive one.

The 40 is on going process through the offseason because thing change because of 60 day DL so I would not save those FA spots on 40 man as an exercise at this point. I like who is added/waivered/nontendered for the rule 5 draft because that is Krall's next big task IMO. Usually they make decisions to clear a spot on the 40 when they actually know they are going to add a player.

[Alpha Zero]

Trying to be semi-realistic here. FA signings are Benintendi, Cueto, Barnhart (or Casali), and Givens. All others are currently rostered. Sub out Bassitt for Cueto if you want to shoot a little higher on the SP market.

1B Votto
2B India
SS Barrero
3B Steer
LF Benintendi (FA)
CF Senzel
RF Fraley
C Stephenson
DH Moustakas or Schrock

UT Farmer
UT Reynolds or Solano
OF Aquino or Friedl
C Barnhart or Casali (FA)

SP Lodolo
SP Greene
SP Ashcraft
SP Cueto or Bassitt (FA)
SP Williamson or Stoudt

RP Diaz
RP Antone
RP Mychal Givens (FA)
RP Santillan
RP Warren
RP Cessa
RP Sanmartin
RP Dunn

From here, stand pat or make a trade or two to beef up CF, DH, or further upgrade the bullpen.

[Chip R]

If the Free Agent market didn't seem so meager and there were more targets to keep the big boys busy, I might be tempted to off Joey Gallo a contract somewhat similar to the one they gave Castellanos.

I'm sure a lot of Yankees fans would have liked to off Gallo.

[Lex2020]

c: Stephenson
1b: Votto
2b: India
3b: Farmer
ss: Barrero
LF: late sign FA, from bargain heap, next year's Pham
CF: Senzel
RF: Fraley

c: Romine
DH/CI: Moustakas
INF: Reynolds
OF: Aquino
OF: Schrock

SP: Greene
SP: Lodolo
SP: Ashcraft
SP: Dunn
SP: Overton

CL: Diaz
RP: Antone
RP: Sanmartin
RP: Cessa
RP: Santillan
RP: Sims
RP: Detwiler
RP: Hoffman

[ShyGuy]

I recall the 1993 Phillies pretty well. When I was a grade school kid I was interested in all the local teams here. But yeah it's 30 years ago already but the 92' Phillies were a last place team and the 93' Phillies made it to the World Series. So yeah this post comes partly out of nostalgia but hey hope for the Reds next year as well. Last to first!

Regardless I highly recommend this video to all baseball fans of that 93 Phillies team. Not just Phillies fans. They were one of the last of the un-PC un corporate influenced teams. Like a group right out of the movie Major League

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vFSpxgXWwZY

[REDREAD]

2. Justin Wilson probably will not pitch at all in 2023.
r.

IIRC, the Reds had an option to have Wilson at minimum salary in 2023, and they have already declined it.
Not criticizing that move or praising it. The point is, I think he's already been effectively cut loose after this season.