2023 Reds

[Redsfan6272]

Now that the dust has settled, here's my best guess at where the Reds' 26-man roster stands for the 2023 season if they make zero moves. I'm bolding who I consider locks.

C Tyler Stephenson
1B Joey Votto
2B Jonathan India
3B Mike Moustakas
SS Kyle Farmer
LF Albert Almora Jr.
CF Nick Senzel
RF Aristides Aquino

C Aramis Garcia
IF Max Schrock
IF Matt Reynolds
OF Jake Fraley
OF TJ Friedl


SP Hunter Greene
SP Nick Lodolo
SP Graham Ashcraft
SP Brandon Williamson
SP Connor Overton

RP Alexis Diaz
RP Luis Cessa
RP Tejay Antone
RP Jeff Hoffman
RP Lucas Sims
RP Tony Santillan
RP Justin Wilson
RP Reiver Sanmartin

That roster is going to cost around $90 million by my eyeball test. The 2022 opening day payroll was $114 million. Opening day 2023 should bump to at least $125 million with sights set on no less than $140 million for 2024 (should be closer to $160 million).

So my question is: Is there anything the Reds can do this offseason to take a big step toward relevance? Let's say they have around $30-35 million to play with.

this looks like a repeat of this year.. ugh.. no players up from the minors to beat out the scrubs

[RedScot]

this looks like a repeat of this year.. ugh.. no players up from the minors to beat out the scrubs

He did say “if they make zero moves” which would explain why it looks like a repeat of this year.

[Kc61]

The best way to build is to improve each year. Not to go barren for another two years because it’s “too soon” to add. Then you’ll find yourself at the mercy of a particular off-season with limited choices.

The Reds most pressing need for next year is likely pitching. The farm is now loaded with position players. The bullpen is obviously in need, the rotation could use a proven guy among five starters.

They also could use help in the outfield and a secondary catcher. The catcher is important given Stephenson’s injuries.

The big issue for 2023 is whether the Reds add some good veterans or whether their plan is all prospects all the time. I hope it’s the former. Not suggesting huge spending, but enough to bring the team up a notch or two.

[Old school 1983]

The best way to build is to improve each year. Not to go barren for another two years because it’s “too soon” to add. Then you’ll find yourself at the mercy of a particular off-season with limited choices.

The Reds most pressing need for next year is likely pitching. The farm is now loaded with position players. The bullpen is obviously in need, the rotation could use a proven guy among five starters.

They also could use help in the outfield and a secondary catcher. The catcher is important given Stephenson’s injuries.

The big issue for 2023 is whether the Reds add some good veterans or whether their plan is all prospects all the time. I hope it’s the former. Not suggesting huge spending, but enough to bring the team up a notch or two.

IMO they need to address the bullpen first. Outside of Diaz it’s barren of reliable options. They have position players galore and 3 solid starting pitching prospects in development with other options that may be reliable bottom of the rotation pieces. If the starters come along and the position prospects do as well, we could have a good team with a solid BP. If they don’t, some pen pieces could be moved and the Reds could have a better foundation of the pen for the following season. IMO it’s the most glaring weakness in the team and system as a whole.

[LeatherPants]

The best way to build is to improve each year. Not to go barren for another two years because it’s “too soon” to add. Then you’ll find yourself at the mercy of a particular off-season with limited choices.

The Reds most pressing need for next year is likely pitching. The farm is now loaded with position players. The bullpen is obviously in need, the rotation could use a proven guy among five starters.

They also could use help in the outfield and a secondary catcher. The catcher is important given Stephenson’s injuries.

The big issue for 2023 is whether the Reds add some good veterans or whether their plan is all prospects all the time. I hope it’s the former. Not suggesting huge spending, but enough to bring the team up a notch or two.

With the asterisk that we all know the Reds aren't poor and can spend way more money than they actually do, assuming the Reds are going to pretend they are cheap, it doesn't make sense to spend that money during rebuild years when they aren't trying.

If they bring in anyone from the outside, they'll be guys brought in as NRI with the chance to make the club. I highly doubt they'll bring in anyone on major league contracts.


They should, but they won't.

[mth123]

IMO they need to address the bullpen first. Outside of Diaz it’s barren of reliable options. They have position players galore and 3 solid starting pitching prospects in development with other options that may be reliable bottom of the rotation pieces. If the starters come along and the position prospects do as well, we could have a good team with a solid BP. If they don’t, some pen pieces could be moved and the Reds could have a better foundation of the pen for the following season. IMO it’s the most glaring weakness in the team and system as a whole.

Disagree. Get good starting pitchers and the bullpen benefits by fewer innings going to the soft underbelly of the pen and as guys who would be used as iffy starters get replaced as better starters are acquired, they can be utilized in the bullpen where their stuff may play-up and they benefit from less exposure. In turn, those guys moving to the pen pushes the crappy filler relievers off the roster. Get 8 or 9 legit starter candidates and the bullpen benefits most of all.

IMO, addressing the bullpen usually just ends up replacing this year's Art Warren with next year's Art Warren and you still have a crappy pen.

[UK Reds Fan]

this looks like a repeat of this year.. ugh.. no players up from the minors to beat out the scrubs

Exactly....all of the trades we didn't net much to replace our needs for next year...it is still years away.

We need Krall to find some Solano, Drury, etc..types for the OF for 2023. We'll see if he can pull a rabbit out of that hat or not. But it's a major black eye to see Senzel flailing so poorly, Aquino is a mess, etc...we need our minor leagues to do a ton better job at developing players out of our system. Fraley appears to be our only outfielder with a pulse for 2023 and again...he was a trade asset as our current minor league system just can't do much for the MLB needs it seems.

[mth123]

With the asterisk that we all know the Reds aren't poor and can spend way more money than they actually do, assuming the Reds are going to pretend they are cheap, it doesn't make sense to spend that money during rebuild years when they aren't trying.

If they bring in anyone from the outside, they'll be guys brought in as NRI with the chance to make the club. I highly doubt they'll bring in anyone on major league contracts.


They should, but they won't.

I don't know. If you are planning for 2024 or 2025 and you think you can get the guy who can lead your staff or hit in the middle of your order today and sign him for 3 or 4 years, that would seem to fit right into the plan even if you don't think you can contend in 2023.

With all that said. I agree with you, it will be rejects, waiver claims and minor league free agents this winter IMO. They probably sign a veteran catcher to tandem with Stephenson and that's all I see happening other than more low-budget big league vets who are past their relatively ho hum primes and have few other options to sign elsewhere.

[corkedbat]

this looks like a repeat of this year.. ugh.. no players up from the minors to beat out the scrubs

I've got a feeling that Steer will be in the thick of the infield mix come ST.

[Old school 1983]

Disagree. Get good starting pitchers and the bullpen benefits by fewer innings going to the soft underbelly of the pen and as guys who would be used as iffy starters get replaced as better starters are acquired, they can be utilized in the bullpen where their stuff may play-up and they benefit from less exposure. In turn, those guys moving to the pen pushes the crappy filler relievers off the roster. Get 8 or 9 legit starter candidates and the bullpen benefits most of all.

IMO, addressing the bullpen usually just ends up replacing this year's Art Warren with next year's Art Warren and you still have a crappy pen.

By addressing the bullpen I meant make it good. Get proven guys in here on 1-2 maybe 3 years deals. Let the young guns or NRIs earn their way into the high leverage innings by working their way into them instead of getting plopped in there and praying.

[mth123]

By addressing the bullpen I meant make it good. Get proven guys in here on 1-2 maybe 3 years deals. Let the young guns or NRIs earn their way into the high leverage innings by working their way into them instead of getting plopped in there and praying.

I want proven guys too, but proven guys are hard to identify. Bullpens are made of guys who pitch a few innings and are mostly matched-up in favorable spots. You are relying on small samples that aren't really random samples to try to identify guys. Amir Garrett is a perfect example. Guy looked like a beast in his small samples facing mostly lefty bats. Give him a role where he has to face all comers as the closer and he looks awful.

I agree that 3 late inning relievers are needed, but I think they are a lower priority than addressing the rotation. A guy like Williamson has a much better chance at being a late inning reliver than a starter who has to go through the line-up 3 times. Truth be told, until he comes up with a pitch other than his fastball that he can consistently throw for strikes, Hunter Greene might be in that same boat. Get the starters. They pitch the most innings and will provide the most improvement the fastest. If the Reds want to improve their record, getting a solid starting pitcher will have the most impact. After that, another starting pitcher will have the second most impact. Then address the bullpen and then the OF.

IMO, the have guys like McLain, dela Cruz, Marte and others coming who might be the answer in the OF. Guys like Williamson and Boyle are more likely to be answer for the bullpen than the rotation. I don't think they have anyone coming to help the rotation. Greene, Lodolo and Ashcraft are it for a while IMO.

[Kc61]

If they bring in anyone from the outside, they'll be guys brought in as NRI with the chance to make the club. I highly doubt they'll bring in anyone on major league contracts.


They should, but they won't.

If it were just a baseball building matter, I might agree. But my hunch is they want to avoid another season of ridicule. They want to increase attendance. So I figure Reds will want to get to around .500 relatively quickly.

But as I said, this is the big question about the off-season. You may be right. Disappointment is the hallmark of most Reds’ off-seasons.

[mth123]

If it were just a baseball building matter, I might agree. But my hunch is they want to avoid another season of ridicule. They want to increase attendance. So I figure Reds will want to get to around .500 relatively quickly.

But as I said, this is the big question about the off-season. You may be right. Disappointment is the hallmark of most Reds’ off-seasons.

I think the Reds will do a few cosmetic things to appease the fans. Maybe they bring back Tucker Barnhart and play up bringing him home. I don't see them doing anything significant signing wise to move the needle. You may get next season's Mike Minor and a scrap heap OF or two. Maybe one of those guys produces a la Drury, but it won't be by design. They'll just look to get by IMO.

[Kc61]

I want proven guys too, but proven guys are hard to identify. Bullpens are made of guys who pitch a few innings and are mostly matched-up in favorable spots. You are relying on small samples that aren't really random samples to try to identify guys. Amir Garrett is a perfect example. Guy looked like a beast in his small samples facing mostly lefty bats. Give him a role where he has to face all comers as the closer and he looks awful.

I agree that 3 late inning relievers are needed, but I think they are a lower priority than addressing the rotation. A guy like Williamson has a much better chance at being a late inning reliver than a starter who has to go through the line-up 3 times. Truth be told, until he comes up with a pitch other than his fastball that he can consistently throw for strikes, Hunter Greene might be in that same boat. Get the starters. They pitch the most innings and will provide the most improvement the fastest. If the Reds want to improve their record, getting a solid starting pitcher will have the most impact. After that, another starting pitcher will have the second most impact. Then address the bullpen and then the OF.

IMO, the have guys like McLain, dela Cruz, Marte and others coming who might be the answer in the OF. Guys like Williamson and Boyle are more likely to be answer for the bullpen than the rotation. I don't think they have anyone coming to help the rotation. Greene, Lodolo and Ashcraft are it for a while IMO.

The Reds have a plausible rotation with Greene, Lodolo, Ashcraft, Williamson, Overton, Dunn.

They don’t have a plausible bullpen.

Neither is likely to be a finished product by next season. I won’t say addressing the pen is much more important, but it’s not less important. Both should be addressed for next season.

[Old school 1983]

I want proven guys too, but proven guys are hard to identify. Bullpens are made of guys who pitch a few innings and are mostly matched-up in favorable spots. You are relying on small samples that aren't really random samples to try to identify guys. Amir Garrett is a perfect example. Guy looked like a beast in his small samples facing mostly lefty bats. Give him a role where he has to face all comers as the closer and he looks awful.

I agree that 3 late inning relievers are needed, but I think they are a lower priority than addressing the rotation. A guy like Williamson has a much better chance at being a late inning reliver than a starter who has to go through the line-up 3 times. Truth be told, until he comes up with a pitch other than his fastball that he can consistently throw for strikes, Hunter Greene might be in that same boat. Get the starters. They pitch the most innings and will provide the most improvement the fastest. If the Reds want to improve their record, getting a solid starting pitcher will have the most impact. After that, another starting pitcher will have the second most impact. Then address the bullpen and then the OF.

IMO, the have guys like McLain, dela Cruz, Marte and others coming who might be the answer in the OF. Guys like Williamson and Boyle are more likely to be answer for the bullpen than the rotation. I don't think they have anyone coming to help the rotation. Greene, Lodolo and Ashcraft are it for a while IMO.

As far as pen guys, I get Alexis to work his brother all off season. Put him at the end of the pen. KC was shopping Barlow, Staumont, and Michael Taylor ( I know CF) at the deadline. Either of those pen pieces are better than anyone not named Diaz in the Reds pen IMO. And Taylor gives you a real CF for a year. Work something out for the 3. I don’t think it’s take a crazy amount to get it done.

Even if all you can get is Barlow, all of a sudden the back of the pen is Barlow, Diaz and Diaz. Guys like Santillian who may step up or Antone who may bounce back can do that in lower leverage situations and work their way up.

Sign a lefty or two that is adequate and go. If you want to get really crazy, call the As and see what they would take for Puk and Sean Murphy to catch. I might be willing to move India in a deal like that given the depth the Reds have at MI.