So what happens now?

[Old school 1983]

There has to be mutual interest, though. Judge isn't coming to play for the Reds in 2023. He's going somewhere that is in win-now mode without him.

Sometimes money talks too. You’d probably know real quick if you had a legit shot. If you don’t, move on and find lesser players with one elite ability. They need to start adding some solid vets to the team. I get guys like Judge are likely pipe dreams. But grabbing a Nimmo and an Edwin Diaz seems very good to me. India and Nimmo 1-2 in the lineup would be tough, and Diaz would go a long way in improving the pen.

Yesterday, it was reported that the Royals were shopping Barlow and Staumont. I’d be all over that this off-season if the price wasn’t absurd.

[50YrRedsFan]

....in the mean time, there will be many low scoring or no scoring games from the Reds offense, and how long will it take until they wear down the young pitchers from overuse?

[Old school 1983]

....in the mean time, there will be many low scoring or no scoring games from the Reds offense, and how long will it take until they wear down the young pitchers from overuse?

They won’t do that if they manage it intelligently. Everyone knows that the rest of this season is meaningless. Pull them and send in the pitching machines…umm I mean bullpen.

[Reds Freak]

Free agency:

Let’s be realistic here. The Reds have never been big players in FA, and most above average players are not going to view the 2023 Reds as a desirable destination without a reasonable shot to win anything.

With that said, there is one player I would try to target. Andrew Benintendi has local ties and fills an obvious need (LH OF). Something like 4/$48M or 5/$60M seems reasonable. He would pair well with India at the top of the lineup would likely continue to provide value when the Reds look to be legitimately competitive again in the 2024-2025 timeframe.

Anyone else the Reds are able to pick up in FA will likely be in the Solano/Drury/Pham mold. A retread or marginal guy looking for more opportunities on a team going nowhere in a hitter friendly park. Maybe they can turn one of those guys into another lotto ticket at the 2023 deadline.

Extensions:

India and Stephenson are the obvious candidates here. I would offer each of them very similar deals. Something along the lines of $5M/$7.5M/$10M/$12.5M/$15M plus a $15M team option with a $5M buyout. That’s $55M guaranteed for 5 years and $65M over 6 if the team exercises their option. Hopefully at least one of the two values stability and enjoys playing in Cincy.

Trades:

I would look to unload Moustakas in a bad contract swap. He’s basically cooked at this point, so I’m not sure if it’s possible to find a match on that front. Other than attempting to dump Moose, I don’t think there will be much trade activity in the coming year plus. All of the big chips have been cashed in and now it’s time to wait and see who develops where and what holes remain before swinging any big deals.

Another option is to do the opposite of the Winker/Suarez deal this offseason. Target a proven OF and maybe a MOR starter under reasonable contracts from a team looking to unload in exchange for a few of these minor league guys you now think are redundant.

[corkedbat]

Moustakas is a sunken cost at this point. The only way he's dealt is by attaching something of value to him just to get another team to take him with little-to-nothing in return. Bite the bullet. Give him a roster spot that lets a farmhand (Encarnacion-Strand?) mature a bit longer. let him pinch hit, DH, maybe an occasional start at 1B (or third in an emergency). Maybe pigs fly and he shows enough that someone wants him for a stretch drive or dump him around the deadline. Have your S&C guys fat-shame him all Winter.

[Old school 1983]

Moustakas is a sunken cost at this point. The only way he's dealt is by attaching something of value to him just to get another team to take him with little-to-nothing in return. Bite the bullet. Give him a roster spot that let's a farmhand (Encarnacion-Strand?) mature a bit longer. let him pinch hit, DH, maybe an occasional start at 1B (or third in an emergency). Maybe pigs fly and he shows enough that someone wants him for a stretch drive or dump him around the deadline. Have your S&C guys fat-shame him all Winter.

Pretty much. If it’s anything like this year, he’ll have some significant DL time too. Expect him to be on the team. Don’t make any plans for him other than an occasional DH spot start.

[Alpha Zero]

Moustakas is a sunken cost at this point. The only way he's dealt is by attaching something of value to him just to get another team to take him with little-to-nothing in return. Bite the bullet. Give him a roster spot that let's a farmhand (Encarnacion-Strand?) mature a bit longer. let him pinch hit, DH, maybe an occasional start at 1B (or third in an emergency). Maybe pigs fly and he shows enough that someone wants him for a stretch drive or dump him around the deadline. Have your S&C guys fat-shame him all Winter.

This is probably what will actually happen. At the very least, I hope he is permanently moved off third except for emergency duties. Let’s see what Barrero and Steer can do on the left side with Farmer morphing into a super utility player.

[JCM11]

By my estimate the Reds will have around 55 million committed to guaranteed contracts and arbitration next year. As of right now we have no bats in the OF at all so picking up one or two this off season is a must. We have three stud rookie SP that look like they belong in the bigs, and if I squint I can maybe see Dunn/Williamson/Overton etc filling in the 5th spot. So we need to pick up one Sonny Gray type veteran SP who can provide leadership and is still a decent mid rotation SP. I'm guessing a good OF bat and a good vet SP will cost in the 25 million range unless we use prospect capital to obtain one two of those players. So that puts the team at 80 million not counting pre arb guys and needing to sign at least two competent bullpen arms and a decent backup catcher for around 10-15 million total. That should put the team at a realistic salary with a decent team.

With the top 6 position player prospects in our system being IF I could see the Reds dipping into that surplus to trade for a MLB ready OF or SP this off season. That could fill a major team need without spending any $.

[HammerTime]

I've heard the Benintendi rumors for over a month now. No idea how true it is, but apparently he wants to sign with the Reds this offseason. That would give them a nice solid vet in the OF.

[Strikes Out Looking]

Here's what happens - the Reds will finish this season with around 65-70 wins, they'll have some issues in September with Greene and Ashcraft pitching more innings than they want them to.

They won't make lots of moves this off-season as low attendance will let them continue to say "align payroll to resources" - they may try to tie up Lodolo, Greene, Ashcraft, India and Stevenson to buy out arb/fa years - maybe one or two of these get done. They'll continue to fill in holes with middling FA's. And no, Aaron Judge isn't coming to Cincy.

Next year, they'll likely start introducing some of the players who they've accumulated during this rebuild. They, hopefully, won't start at 3-23 so won't be in a gigantic hole to start the season. Maybe they'll win 80 games, but the front office won't actively try to win (even though, like this year, the division is winnable with a middling team as there is no LA or NY in the division).

In 2024, the FO will proclaim they are ready to compete. They'll fill some holes and put a team on the field that should win at least 81 games. But because they have to "align payroll to resources" they'll still have holes (likely need a SP or if history plays out, have a weak/cheap bullpen). If they don't compete in 2024, they'll say the payroll is too much, and some of the India/Lodolo/Greene/Stevenson/Ashcraft group will start to be offloaded and either in July of 2024 or Winter 2024/25, the next rebuild will start.

Am I cynical? Yes as I've been a Reds fan for 50 years and for the last 30 have seen a group of owners who just don't care about anything but their own bottom line.

[JCM11]

I've heard the Benintendi rumors for over a month now. No idea how true it is, but apparently he wants to sign with the Reds this offseason. That would give them a nice solid vet in the OF.

I like Benintendi as a target because he's a young FA at 28 so he should still be a good player when the top prospects start coming up for the Reds. I would think about dropping India into the 3 hole if we get a guy or two like Beni who can get on base at the top of the order.

[HalKing]

This question has been on my mind with the trades of Mahle and Castillo. Who covers the starts for the remainder of the season? Surely at some point Lodolo, Greene and Ashcraft will reach inning limits. Obviously regardless of results they can keep running Minor out every fifth day. Connor Overton may come back at some point and could absorb some starts, if healthy. Ben Lively is currently on the IL(as of 6/22) at Louisville with a flexor strain. He's not on the 40 man, but could make a few starts. Stephen Duggar is suppose is a possibility as well. Any other options off hand?

[Alpha Zero]

This question has been on my mind with the trades of Mahle and Castillo. Who covers the starts for the remainder of the season? Surely at some point Lodolo, Greene and Ashcraft will reach inning limits. Obviously regardless of results they can keep running Minor out every fifth day. Connor Overton may come back at some point and could absorb some starts, if healthy. Ben Lively is currently on the IL(as of 6/22) at Louisville with a flexor strain. He's not on the 40 man, but could make a few starts. Stephen Duggar is suppose is a possibility as well. Any other options off hand?

Dunn will likely make some starts and Williamson may get a taste of MLB action later in the year.

[Reds Freak]

This question has been on my mind with the trades of Mahle and Castillo. Who covers the starts for the remainder of the season? Surely at some point Lodolo, Greene and Ashcraft will reach inning limits. Obviously regardless of results they can keep running Minor out every fifth day. Connor Overton may come back at some point and could absorb some starts, if healthy. Ben Lively is currently on the IL(as of 6/22) at Louisville with a flexor strain. He's not on the 40 man, but could make a few starts. Stephen Duggar is suppose is a possibility as well. Any other options off hand?

I'm not sure it matters too much who picks up the left over starts. You mentioned Duggar. I'm sure they'll give Dunn and Williamson starts to see what they have there. And then if you might give guys who don't really have a future here like Randy Wynne and Justin Nicolino or even Carson Spiers spot starts just to get through the season.

[mth123]

What is the path forward from this point to when the kids really start to matriculate into the majors?

Personally, I would like to see them try to establish a winning tradition next season. Add a few guys who will really help (Conforto? FA starter?) win some games. That way when the kids really start to establish in 2024, they'll be coming into a winning atmosphere.

I also hope they've invested well in their minor league development team. The prospects are just that until they develop, and that requires good coaching and management at the lower levels.

A lot of uncertainty.

1. Barrero has been called up. Not sure if he moves to the OF. I can't imagine them moving Farmer off of SS.
2. I hope Steer is up to play 3B every day the rest of the year.
3. Matt McLain should move to the OF ASAP.
4. Go find about 8 pitchers for next year's roster. 2 of those need to be able to start competently. 13 man staff, Greene, Lodolo, Ashcraft, Diaz, Antone and a bunch of new names who have never pitched in Cincy. I might let SanMartin stay if he keeps doing what he's doing, but my guess is it's a mirage.