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Thread: So what happens now?

  1. #31
    Member Rojo Rijo's Avatar
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    Re: So what happens now?

    DP
    Last edited by Rojo Rijo; 08-03-2022 at 11:01 AM.


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  3. #32
    Member Rojo Rijo's Avatar
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    Re: So what happens now?

    If I were the Reds and I could choose FAs to sign this offseason here is what I would do:

    Rafael Montero - 3 years/24 million
    Brandon Nimmo - 4 years/80 million
    Jake Odorizzi - 1 year/8 million with a MO at 12 million for 2024
    Wilmer Flores - 2 years/15 million
    Martin Perez - 3 years/ 27 million

    That would add about 52.5 million to the books (plus ARB increases for others)

    The Reds could have this team for 2023:

    2B - India
    LF - Nimmo
    1B - Votto
    C - Stephenson
    3B - Flores
    RF - Aquino
    SS - Farmer
    LF - Senzel
    CF - Barrero
    DH - Moose/Shrock

    SP - Perez
    SP - Greene
    SP - Lodolo
    SP - Odorizzi
    SP - Ashcraft

    RP - Antone
    RP - Diaz
    RP - Cessa
    RP - Williamson
    RP - Wilson
    RP - Dunn
    RP - Montero

    This would build a bridge while also starting a winning culture. The only real financial commitment is Nimmo but he's a high contact/OBP guy and those are skills that typically don't deteriorate with age. Odorizzi is a bit risky with injury history and Perez might cost a bit more with how well of a season he's having but they would stabilize a young rotation. Montero could be the closer and allow TJ and Diaz to operate high leverage situations. Flores could be a .800 OPS bat in GABP. ,
    *This does not include the potential minor leaguers who could be ready at some point next year.

    Full disclosure - I realize the chances of the Reds spending 50 million in FA is slim to none but they could stomach it for one year, potentially compete for the postseason and then free themselves of almost the same amount the following year - Votto 25, Moose 18, Odorzzi 8.

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  5. #33
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    Re: So what happens now?

    I’d like to see Benintendi or Conforto. And a catcher to reduce the pressure on Stephenson, let him rest, let him play other positions and DH sometimes.

    But mostly it’s about pitching. The team ERA has been one of the worst in baseball all season. While it’s improved somewhat, now there’s no Castillo or Mahle to rely upon.

    The Reds need to start building a bullpen. And if they add a veteran starter, he needs to be additive to the staff.

    Not all big ticket items, and relievers are volatile. But they have to do better than guys like Doolittle and Strickland. Both have had excellent careers but Reds need guys closer to their prime years.

    I believe in team infrastructure. Having the offensive line as well as the flashy skill positions. BOR starters, solid relievers, pitching depth is a big part of that and I’d begin to move in that direction right away.

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  7. #34
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    Re: So what happens now?

    Quote Originally Posted by Old school 1983 View Post
    On the broadcast last night, Krall kept talking about how they added potential impact talent via the trades and draft. That is the route they should go in FA. True impact players or guys a notch down, but have an elite skill in their game. And then pieces in the price range of those they added this year. Middling priced FA often are the type that end up getting you burned.

    As of right now it’s lining up that there is one stud type player available for the next 3 offseasons.

    2022-Judge
    2023-Ohtani
    2024-Soto

    This off-season I’d make a push for Edwin Diaz and Aaron Judge. Both will cost, but neither will ruin the payroll, especially considering the low cost of the rest of the team. It’ll fit even better when Votto and Moose come off the books.

    If Judge is a touch old and you don’t think he’d fit the overarching time-line, the Reds will have a clean slate payroll going into 2024, hopefully an established rotation and some stud prospects coming up. Offer the sun, moon and stars to Ohtani.

    Targeting guys like Benintendi are the type of deals that really blow up. He can go meh in a hurry. If any of those elite guys loses a step they are still likely producing star caliber outcomes.

    What are the chances that any of Judge, Ohtani or Soto actually hit UFA?

  8. #35
    Member Ron Madden's Avatar
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    Re: So what happens now?

    Quote Originally Posted by HalKing View Post
    This question has been on my mind with the trades of Mahle and Castillo. Who covers the starts for the remainder of the season? Surely at some point Lodolo, Greene and Ashcraft will reach inning limits. Obviously regardless of results they can keep running Minor out every fifth day. Connor Overton may come back at some point and could absorb some starts, if healthy. Ben Lively is currently on the IL(as of 6/22) at Louisville with a flexor strain. He's not on the 40 man, but could make a few starts. Stephen Duggar is suppose is a possibility as well. Any other options off hand?
    RHP Connor Overton (stress reaction in lower back)
    Expected return: Late August

    Overton was scratched from his May 22 series finale start against the Blue Jays after complaining about back soreness the previous day. An MRI exam revealed a bone bruise caused by a stress reaction in his lower back. The right-hander was shut down from throwing for at least 6-8 weeks.

    Overton has started a throwing program at the team’s complex in Goodyear, Ariz., and has been making progress.

    End of August would be a target date to have him pitching
    (Last Updated: July 8--Mark Sheldon)


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  10. #36
    Member Marc D's Avatar
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    Re: So what happens now?

    I saw it said here before that this organization has been beset by both dumbassery and cheapassery for a couple of decades now and I completely concur.

    This past draft and tear down have started to give me the feeling they have shown the beginnings of competency. Small sample size duly noted, I'll give them the nod on the dumbassery bit.

    This offseason will tell us everything about the cheapassery. The opportunity is there to do some really positive, creative things and keep the good mojo from the tear down moving forward. I really want to believe but I am skeptical.

    I will hope for asskickery but not be surprised by asshattery.

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  12. #37
    Member Rojo Rijo's Avatar
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    Re: So what happens now?

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    What are the chances that any of Judge, Ohtani or Soto actually hit UFA?
    Judge will but the Yankees will get him back. The only way I saw this going differently was if they traded for Soto.
    Soto will not. I think San Diego gives him his deal this offseason.
    Ohtani will. I think the Angels will need to trade him this offseason, at next years TDL at the latest but I doubt they will. Art is not good at running a MLB club. That team isnt built to win, not enough pitching and a lacking offense. They can't win the AL West with Houston reigning right now and even Seattle and Texas are better than they are. I think being LA confuses Art and he thinks his Angels are on the same level as the Dodgers. If Ohtani really wants to win he'll be gone and don't be surprised if he trades that red for Dodger blue.

  13. #38
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    Re: So what happens now?

    I'm not expecting the huge splash middle of order bat signing. Benintendi would be nice, but I just cant see the Reds dishing out the type of money he will look for. I've got to believe he gets around what Castellanos did last year, right?

    I'd prefer the Reds grab some established pitchers to go with their current young guys. I'd feel a lot better if the Reds sign a vet SP you can pencil in higher than the 4/5 spot in the rotation, and fill out the back end of the bullpen.

    I'd rather the Reds challenge the young hitters of Barrero/Strand/Steer/McLain than rushing young pitchers into the mix. I'd coddle the AAA/AA arms right now.

    FA wise on offense I could see the Reds trying to resign someone like Drury (would he fit an everyday OF role?) or a rebound candidate like Joey Gallo would could absolutely mash in GABP if he can tap back into his pre Yankee days.

  14. #39
    Member Old school 1983's Avatar
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    Re: So what happens now?

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    What are the chances that any of Judge, Ohtani or Soto actually hit UFA?
    I’d say Ohtani had the best shot. Judge in the middle. Soto will likely get extended.

  15. #40
    Playoff Veteran sdwagers's Avatar
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    Re: So what happens now?

    Quote Originally Posted by Rojo Rijo View Post
    If I were the Reds and I could choose FAs to sign this offseason here is what I would do:

    Rafael Montero - 3 years/24 million
    Brandon Nimmo - 4 years/80 million
    Jake Odorizzi - 1 year/8 million with a MO at 12 million for 2024
    Wilmer Flores - 2 years/15 million
    Martin Perez - 3 years/ 27 million

    That would add about 52.5 million to the books (plus ARB increases for others)

    The Reds could have this team for 2023:

    2B - India
    LF - Nimmo
    1B - Votto
    C - Stephenson
    3B - Flores
    RF - Aquino
    SS - Farmer
    LF - Senzel
    CF - Barrero
    DH - Moose/Shrock

    SP - Perez
    SP - Greene
    SP - Lodolo
    SP - Odorizzi
    SP - Ashcraft

    RP - Antone
    RP - Diaz
    RP - Cessa
    RP - Williamson
    RP - Wilson
    RP - Dunn
    RP - Montero

    This would build a bridge while also starting a winning culture. The only real financial commitment is Nimmo but he's a high contact/OBP guy and those are skills that typically don't deteriorate with age. Odorizzi is a bit risky with injury history and Perez might cost a bit more with how well of a season he's having but they would stabilize a young rotation. Montero could be the closer and allow TJ and Diaz to operate high leverage situations. Flores could be a .800 OPS bat in GABP. ,
    *This does not include the potential minor leaguers who could be ready at some point next year.

    Full disclosure - I realize the chances of the Reds spending 50 million in FA is slim to none but they could stomach it for one year, potentially compete for the postseason and then free themselves of almost the same amount the following year - Votto 25, Moose 18, Odorzzi 8.
    I like this approach. I want the Reds to target guys like Nimmo to be "The bridge. " Hopefully those types can be a "Scott Rolen" type and help bring up the kids.
    Quote Originally Posted by Will M View Post
    sdwagers for Reds GM!

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  17. #41
    Member Rojo Rijo's Avatar
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    Re: So what happens now?

    Quote Originally Posted by Wayne Krivsky View Post
    I'm not expecting the huge splash middle of order bat signing. Benintendi would be nice, but I just cant see the Reds dishing out the type of money he will look for. I've got to believe he gets around what Castellanos did last year, right?

    I'd prefer the Reds grab some established pitchers to go with their current young guys. I'd feel a lot better if the Reds sign a vet SP you can pencil in higher than the 4/5 spot in the rotation, and fill out the back end of the bullpen.

    I'd rather the Reds challenge the young hitters of Barrero/Strand/Steer/McLain than rushing young pitchers into the mix. I'd coddle the AAA/AA arms right now.

    FA wise on offense I could see the Reds trying to resign someone like Drury (would he fit an everyday OF role?) or a rebound candidate like Joey Gallo would could absolutely mash in GABP if he can tap back into his pre Yankee days.
    Gallo is going to be a steal for whichever team signs him next year which might be the Dodgers since he is already there. There will be no shift and he's no longer playing in the most difficult media market in baseball. His confidence is going to go way up and i'd expect him to get back to his 30+ HR/.750-.800 OPS ways which will be a steal for the amount he signs for.

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    REDREAD (08-04-2022),Wayne Krivsky (08-03-2022)

  19. #42
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    Re: So what happens now?

    Quote Originally Posted by Rojo Rijo View Post
    Gallo is going to be a steal for whichever team signs him next year which might be the Dodgers since he is already there. There will be no shift and he's no longer playing in the most difficult media market in baseball. His confidence is going to go way up and i'd expect him to get back to his 30+ HR/.750-.800 OPS ways which will be a steal for the amount he signs for.
    This is a really good point to keep in mind. No more shift could change things pretty significantly in how a team like the Reds approach free agency. There could be a ton of value in the lower tier offensive FAs whos numbers have been crushed by the shift.

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  21. #43
    Winning is fun. RiverRat13's Avatar
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    Re: So what happens now?

    Benitendi would be an overpay but with how little they have on the books there is no reason not to. Front-load the contract where the bulk is paid in '23 and '24 so that the last two to three years of the contract can't be used as an excuse to not pay others when they are due to get paid.

  22. #44
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    Re: So what happens now?

    Quote Originally Posted by RiverRat13 View Post
    Benitendi would be an overpay but with how little they have on the books there is no reason not to. Front-load the contract where the bulk is paid in '23 and '24 so that the last two to three years of the contract can't be used as an excuse to not pay others when they are due to get paid.
    I'm not opposed, but to play devils advocate would it make more sense to use that payroll flex you have now to go ahead and try to extend out guys like India/Stephenson? Buy out their Arbitration years and add a couple more years of control. The Reds could front load those deals and keep that payroll flex once 2024/2025 gets here.

  23. #45
    Member Rojo Rijo's Avatar
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    Re: So what happens now?

    I don't like Benitendi. Low power guy having a classic contract year boost. He's not even a .800 OPS guy and ive seen him projected around 5/100. No thank you. I'd prefer Nimmo.

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