Protecting the Jewels: A Way-Too-Early 40-Man Roster Discussion

[Kinsm]

I have a question?

How is Elly de la Cruz on this list he has 3 seasons of pro ball. If you add in the 2020 Covid year when no MiLB was played he is still at 4 years so heÂ’s not eligible for rule 5 until after next year.

He's eligible because this will be the *fifth Rule 5 draft since his official contract signing back in July of 2018. 2018 counts as a "qualified season" for Rule 5 purposes; because he signed before the DSL season ended, it counts regardless if he wasn't assigned to play in league games until the next year. Had he signed after the minor league regular seasons ended in 2018 then that year would not have counted as a "qualified season" even if he signed before that first rule 5 draft (say October instead of July for example).

Rule 5 status has nothing to do with Rule 9 (minor league FA) team control, which allows the Reds too control him through at least the 2025 season if they wish to do so (assuming for hypothetical purposes that he isn't protected and he's not taken by another club via a Rule 5 draft). The canceled 2020 minor league season does count for Rule 9 purposes.

*The lockout canceled rule 5 draft counts as a year for draft purposes as well.

[Kinsm]

An easier way to think of it is, with some exceptions, basically any HS player drafted in 2018 and international player signed in 2018 and any college player drafted in 2019 is eligible for this coming rule 5 draft. As are any other player not on a 40 man roster who was signed or drafted earlier than that (for example any player drafted in 2017).

The number of seasons they've actually suited up and seen game action matters not.

[CmdrCody]

Thank you for clearing that up, I couldn’t find info on when he signed in the year. I did understand that 2020 counted as a year which can make thing confusing.

[muethibp]

This is a worthwhile issue for discussion and interesting to consider. Without getting into the specifics, I will just generally say that we currently have one of the worst MLB rosters. Even with maybe an outsized need to protect the young people that have been amassed in trades, the chances of the rest of baseball having interest in the last cut off a bad group seems pretty unlikely. We pass dudes through waivers all the time and no one bites. (Nor would you expect them to.)

[corkedbat]

Definitely (22) [No Particular Order]
Votto
India
Barrero
Farmer, K.
Senzel
Fraley
Stephenson
Greene
Lodolo
Ashcraft
Antone
Diaz
Santillan
Kuhnel
Sanmartin
De La Cruz
Marte
Steer
Siani
Vellojin
Johnson
Williamson

Possibly (30) [Loose Priority]
Solano (re-sign)
Dugger
Lopez
Overton
Almora
Cessa
Schrock
Hoffman
Guttierez
Fairchild
Dunn
Friedl
Aquino
Byrne
Cerda
Gibaut
Wilson
Quintana
Duarte
Moreta
Hopkins
Warren
Solomon
Sims
Garcia
Kolozsvary
Hendrix
Romine
Reynolds
Zeuch

Probably (Not) (12) [No Particular Order]
Moustakas
Minor
Strickland
Farmer, B.
Detwiler
Papierski
Dawson
Rey
Demiurias
Pidich
Cooper
Free

[RED VAN HOT]

Bump.

It's not way too early anymore. Clearly, the Reds have a number of cuts that need to be made to the 40 man roster, somewhere between 15-19. With 2020 being a lost year for development I'm guessing that teams will have more players than usual that need to be protected. Further, there appears to be a trend toward valuing younger (cheaper) players more. This points to a lot of marginal veterans being cut and having to take minor league contracts.

[Kingspoint]

I assume we will add a few in FA to the team, also.

[RED VAN HOT]

I assume we will add a few in FA to the team, also.

My guess is a starting pitcher and a back end bullpen arm. My guess is that they will try to compete for a wild card with existing players platooning. They can't outbid the Mets, but they should go after Edwin Diaz in the hope that playing with his brother might get him to take a lesser offer.

My fear is that instead of DFA'ing Moose, they might package him with prospects in order to get another team to take his contract.