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Thread: Aquino

  1. #301
    Member Kinsm's Avatar
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    Re: Aquino

    Aquino's 2022 OBP of .248 ranks 170th out of 171 players in the NL with at least 200 PA's this season, the only player worse than him is a 40 year old catcher who is retiring in a month's time.

    His 2022 AVG of .205 ranks 157th out of the same 171 players.

    His 2022 K% of 37.6% of all PA's ranks 168th out of the same 171 players.

    He can no longer be optioned to the minors.

    He's set for a raise.

    He'll be 29 on opening day.

    He's an extra innings defensive replacement for a good team or a starter in NPB, time to move on.

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    Chip R (09-20-2022)


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  4. #302
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    Re: Aquino

    Quote Originally Posted by Kinsm View Post
    Aquino's 2022 OBP of .248 ranks 170th out of 171 players in the NL with at least 200 PA's this season, the only player worse than him is a 40 year old catcher who is retiring in a month's time.

    His 2022 AVG of .205 ranks 157th out of the same 171 players.

    His 2022 K% of 37.6% of all PA's ranks 168th out of the same 171 players.

    He can no longer be optioned to the minors.

    He's set for a raise.

    He'll be 29 on opening day.

    He's an extra innings defensive replacement for a good team or a starter in NPB, time to move on.
    Impressive cherry picking. Let’s look at the whole picture.

    Aquino currently has produced a 0.9 fWAR and a 1.7 bWAR in only 242 PA’s. He’s produced an .800 OPS over the last month, since he changed his approach at the plate. One can argue that he has accumulated a big chunk of that against bad teams, bad pitchers. However the league is full of bad teams, bad pitchers. Every hitters gets to face them.

    He’s a positive producer overall, and that is what smart teams look at. He’s likely going to make around $1-2M next season, even with arbitration. Maybe the Reds think they can do better, but right now, he’s easily one of their best OF options for 2023.
    Hoping to change my username to 75769023

  5. #303
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    Re: Aquino

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Impressive cherry picking. Let’s look at the whole picture.

    Aquino currently has produced a 0.9 fWAR and a 1.7 bWAR in only 242 PA’s. He’s produced an .800 OPS over the last month, since he changed his approach at the plate. One can argue that he has accumulated a big chunk of that against bad teams, bad pitchers. However the league is full of bad teams, bad pitchers. Every hitters gets to face them.

    He’s a positive producer overall, and that is what smart teams look at. He’s likely going to make around $1-2M next season, even with arbitration. Maybe the Reds think they can do better, but right now, he’s easily one of their best OF options for 2023.
    If Aquino has this much value, trade him. Let another team risk that an AA hot streak is the real thing.

  6. #304
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    Re: Aquino

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Impressive cherry picking. Let’s look at the whole picture.

    Aquino currently has produced a 0.9 fWAR and a 1.7 bWAR in only 242 PA’s. He’s produced an .800 OPS over the last month, since he changed his approach at the plate. One can argue that he has accumulated a big chunk of that against bad teams, bad pitchers. However the league is full of bad teams, bad pitchers. Every hitters gets to face them.

    He’s a positive producer overall, and that is what smart teams look at. He’s likely going to make around $1-2M next season, even with arbitration. Maybe the Reds think they can do better, but right now, he’s easily one of their best OF options for 2023.
    His positive WAR is due to his defense, namely all the guys he's thrown out. His BR oWAR is well below zero. I'd non tender him and see if he wants to sign a minor league contract and win a job in Spring Training. We're banking on this new stance leading him to the promise land. I'm extremely skeptical

  7. #305
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    Re: Aquino

    His WAR of over 1 is a good example of the lunacy of FG's $ per WAR. According to their numbers Aquino is worth well over $10mill as an unrestricted FA

    https://blogs.fangraphs.com/what-are...n-free-agency/

  8. #306
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    Re: Aquino

    I think there is no question that if the Reds were a real team, guys like Aquino and Senzel would be gone as soon as the season ends, but the Reds are the toy Fisher-Price piano trying to compete in a league of concert grade Steinway's. There are no internal options who are obviously better than Aquino, especially for RF as most of the in-house OF options seem more suited to LF where you can be a little slower to the ball and the arm doesn't need to be as strong. I don't see this team going out and getting a real RF who can man the position and provide some thump in the middle of the order, and they haven't made any move to switch some of the IF glut to the OF at this point, so Aquino, .248 OBP, .205 BA and 37.6% K Rate and all, is probably still the best choice to play RF at this point.

    I hope the Reds go out and get some better players to make guys like Aquino, Senzel and most of the pitching staff obsolete. I'll believe it when I see it.
    All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!

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    Chip R (09-20-2022)

  10. #307
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    Re: Aquino

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    If Aquino has this much value, trade him. Let another team risk that an AA hot streak is the real thing.
    The issue isn’t that this hot streak is the real thing, the issue is his season long production and value is the real thing. He has shown that he gets on these hot streaks, and ends up being an overall productive player.

    Not counting his hot start to his career, from 2020 to now, Aquino has put up a .657 OPS in 178 games. It seems that is who he is. That, combined with his defense and baserunning, make him a postive productive player, a decent 4th OF.
    Hoping to change my username to 75769023

  11. #308
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    Re: Aquino

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Impressive cherry picking. Let’s look at the whole picture.

    Aquino currently has produced a 0.9 fWAR and a 1.7 bWAR in only 242 PA’s. He’s produced an .800 OPS over the last month, since he changed his approach at the plate. One can argue that he has accumulated a big chunk of that against bad teams, bad pitchers. However the league is full of bad teams, bad pitchers. Every hitters gets to face them.

    He’s a positive producer overall, and that is what smart teams look at. He’s likely going to make around $1-2M next season, even with arbitration. Maybe the Reds think they can do better, but right now, he’s easily one of their best OF options for 2023.
    bWAR --->
    2022 oWAR negative 0.6
    2022 dWAR positive 2.1

    He's one of the worst overall hitters in the league, no cherry picking to see that.

    I don't buy for one second that his "change of approach" is real. 0 for his last 12 with 6 K's.

  12. #309
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    Re: Aquino

    If Aquino is the Reds 4th best option in the OF come opening day then they are set to lose another 100 games.

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    Chip R (09-20-2022)

  14. #310
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    Re: Aquino

    You could easily make a case that Stuart Fairchild is a better OF option than Aquino

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    Old school 1983 (09-20-2022)

  16. #311
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    Re: Aquino

    Quote Originally Posted by Kinsm View Post
    If Aquino is the Reds 4th best option in the OF come opening day then they are set to lose another 100 games.
    That’s a silly statement. So if the Reds have an OF of Judge, Trout, and Harper, with Aquino as the 4th OF, they will lose 100 games?

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Kinsm View Post
    bWAR --->
    2022 oWAR negative 0.6
    2022 dWAR positive 2.1

    He's one of the worst overall hitters in the league, no cherry picking to see that.

    I don't buy for one second that his "change of approach" is real. 0 for his last 12 with 6 K's.
    You left out his HR’s, so yes, that is cherry picking.

    And defense matters too. Run creation and run prevention is how the game is won and lost.
    Hoping to change my username to 75769023

  17. #312
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    Re: Aquino

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    That’s a silly statement. So if the Reds have an OF of Judge, Trout, and Harper, with Aquino as the 4th OF, they will lose 100 games?
    Sorry, I forgot about the mythical OF as a trump to my statement.

    And I'd probably still go with - very likely - because they wouldn't have any money for pitching and at least one of them would probably get injured.

    Good job though, you really got me.

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    Re: Aquino

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    The issue isn’t that this hot streak is the real thing, the issue is his season long production and value is the real thing. He has shown that he gets on these hot streaks, and ends up being an overall productive player.

    Not counting his hot start to his career, from 2020 to now, Aquino has put up a .657 OPS in 178 games. It seems that is who he is. That, combined with his defense and baserunning, make him a postive productive player, a decent 4th OF.
    If the issue is Aquino’s overall numbers, rather than his hot streak, I’d say my goodbyes.

    I don’t like players with such high K rates. And this year his 37% K rate dwarfs his 5% walk rate.

    Just not my type of hitter.

  20. #314
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    Re: Aquino

    Quote Originally Posted by Kinsm View Post
    Sorry, I forgot about the mythical OF as a trump to my statement.

    And I'd probably still go with - very likely - because they wouldn't have any money for pitching and at least one of them would probably get injured.

    Good job though, you really got me.
    The point is that there are plenty of contending teams with 4th OF who are 1-2 WAR players.
    Hoping to change my username to 75769023

  21. #315
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    Re: Aquino

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    If the issue is Aquino’s overall numbers, rather than his hot streak, I’d say my goodbyes.

    I don’t like players with such high K rates. And this year his 37% K rate dwarfs his 5% walk rate.

    Just not my type of hitter.
    Not only that, but he got hot when teams out of it were tanking, and teams in it were throwing crap pitchers at the Reds. Where was Aquino when it mattered? That's what they'll look at.
    "He reminds me of me when I was that age -- the way he plays the game, I mean," Pete Rose talking about Chris Sabo


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