Down the stretch of 2023

[UK Reds Fan]

Down the stretch of a dreadful season are we really going To make 2023 decisions on

1. Barrero….let’s hope the kid sticks as opening day SS. He needs to establish some relevance even if we move him later on to make room for kids. I’d gauge he’ll be sub 700 ops when it’s over

2. Senzel../after w nice resurgence thru June…he’s thudding back down to earth. 650 Ops and his awful power is a problem. If he falters…now we need to add CF we lost of holes at the MLB level

3. Fraley….man it’d be nice to see him stabilize and be a dependent platoon OF But he looks more like a guy you’re waiving then filling a hole on roster

4. Dunn….I sort of thought he’d was decent in his first action. We need some body to pick up two wide open rotation slots for 2023

5. Is Aquino a legit 2023 option? I’ve seen his sub .200 batting average and sporadic power enough.

Are Almora, Reynolds, legit for 2023 as well ?

[WrongVerb]

I like Almora as a 5th OF/defensive replacement/spot starter. You could do worse in OF backups than Fraley and Almora. I expect Aquino and Senzel get non-tendered. Dunn's long term home should/will be the bullpen. But he can start for now. I'm cautiously bullish on Barrero.

[Bourgeois Zee]

No way Senzel gets non-tendered-- yet.

He's still going to be relatively cheap, and there is absolutely nothing in the queue to replace him at the beginning of 2023. Mike Siani is the closest CF in the minor leagues, and there is a dearth of quality CF across baseball. (It might be the worst position in the game right now.)

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Barrero needs PAs. He'll get them the rest of this season and next. Again, not much in the queue-- unless EDLC breaks down the door a year early or the Reds think Steer can play SS. Both of those are doubtful, IMO.

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Unless Fraley absolutely goes nuclear (ie, a 900+ OPS the rest of the way), he's a fourth OF. Even then, I'm guessing they're looking to sign other guys to start.

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Dunn is already baked into the team next year, IMO, as a swingman. I'm guessing Overton, Greene, Lodolo, and Ashcraft are written in stone, with Dunn, whatever flotsam they sign as stopgap starting pitching depth, Tejay Antone, and Brandon Williamson as other options. What he does the rest of the way won't really matter all that much. (Unless, of course, he truly gets hammered and is therefore released).

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Aquino, Almora, and Reynolds are all fifth OF or AAAA depth pieces, at best. They're the very definition of fungible.

[mth123]

No way Senzel gets non-tendered-- yet.

He's still going to be relatively cheap, and there is absolutely nothing in the queue to replace him at the beginning of 2023. Mike Siani is the closest CF in the minor leagues, and there is a dearth of quality CF across baseball. (It might be the worst position in the game right now.)

I agree with your whole post, but this is the part I want to emphasize. CF is easily the weakest position these days. Its why I don't understand the aversion to moving McLain or De La Cruz or Barrero out there. despite what some 20 year old formula may spit out, a quality CF is at least as valuable as a quality SS and based on supply and demand, probably more valuable these days.

[SomeCallMeTim]

I agree with your whole post, but this is the part I want to emphasize. CF is easily the weakest position these days. Its why I don't understand the aversion to moving McLain or De La Cruz or Barrero out there. despite what some 20 year old formula may spit out, a quality CF is at least as valuable as a quality SS and based on supply and demand, probably more valuable these days.

Two words: Billy Hamilton.

[mth123]

Two words: Billy Hamilton.

But Billy Hamilton was clearly not going to hit. The reds forced him into CF a year too soon to save money. I don't think another year of AAA would have changed much, but he wouldn't have been more valuable as a ho hum defender at SS. Moving to CF where his defense was stellar (because he could take full advantage of his speed), probably made him Millions of dollars. Had he stayed at SS, he'd have probably been out of the league in a couple of years.

[JCM11]

I agree with your whole post, but this is the part I want to emphasize. CF is easily the weakest position these days. Its why I don't understand the aversion to moving McLain or De La Cruz or Barrero out there. despite what some 20 year old formula may spit out, a quality CF is at least as valuable as a quality SS and based on supply and demand, probably more valuable these days.

I haven't seen an aversion to moving McLain or Barrero to CF. The Elly debate is 50/50 and I'm on the side of leaving the generational talent at his natural position. I'd be fine with Barrero, McLain or Siani in CF. If we're prioritizing defense then Siani is the obvious choice. If Barrero's bat heats up he has the arm to move to third when Elly is ready, and I think that'll be sooner than some think.

[Benihana]

Agree that Barrero is the only name from the OP that matters down the stretch and into 2023. If Barrero proves he should be counted on to be the Reds everyday SS for the next 3-4 years by OPSing .750 or better over the next 100 games (stretching into next year) then great. Move Elly to CF and either McLain or India to LF (with the other being the everyday 2B). If Barrero fails to solve his strikeout woes and can’t push .750, leave Elly at SS and start playing McLain in CF everyday. Either way McLain should be working on his OF defense this offseason (AFL maybe?)

Nick Senzel likely is out of the organization after next year. he has shown who he is, and his only function now is to hold down CF until either McLain or Elly is ready to play everyday. Likely that happens by this time next year, if not sooner.

Marte is the 3B of the future. Arroyo could possibly be the eventual heir to Barrero if he sticks, or he could be trade bait. If Barrero can’t stick at SS because of his bat there is nowhere else for him to play on the Diamond. If his stick doesn’t play at SS it certainly doesn’t play at 3B or in the OF.

Fraley, Almora, Reynolds, and Aquino et al are complete interchangeable filler. Not starters. Also agree that Dunn is only a spot starter/long relief guy at best. Siani is nothing more than a backup/defensive replacement as well.

[mth123]

Agree that Barrero is the only name from the OP that matters down the stretch and into 2023. If Barrero proves he should be counted on to be the Reds everyday SS for the next 3-4 years by OPSing .750 or better over the next 100 games (stretching into next year) then great. Move Elly to CF and either McLain or India to LF (with the other being the everyday 2B). If Barrero fails to solve his strikeout woes and can’t push .750, leave Elly at SS and start playing McLain in CF everyday. Either way McLain should be working on his OF defense this offseason (AFL maybe?)

Nick Senzel likely is out of the organization after next year. he has shown who he is, and his only function now is to hold down CF until either McLain or Elly is ready to play everyday. Likely that happens by this time next year, if not sooner.

Marte is the 3B of the future. Arroyo could possibly be the eventual heir to Barrero if he sticks, or he could be trade bait. If Barrero can’t stick at SS because of his bat there is nowhere else for him to play on the Diamond. If his stick doesn’t play at SS it certainly doesn’t play at 3B or in the OF.

Fraley, Almora, Reynolds, and Aquino et al are complete interchangeable filler. Not starters. Also agree that Dunn is only a spot starter/long relief guy at best. Siani is nothing more than a backup/defensive replacement as well.

What do you think about Marte in RF. I'm not really very confident in any of the Reds OF options. Cerda is probably the best option, but Hinds, Hendrick etc don't look like they have it to me. I guess I'm think Steer, or one of the other IF once Arroyo arrives, at 3B with Marte in RF is a better combo than Marte at 3B and one of the other OF options in RF.

[Benihana]

What do you think about Marte in RF. I'm not really very confident in any of the Reds OF options. Cerda is probably the best option, but Hinds, Hendrick etc don't look like they have it to me. I guess I'm think Steer, or one of the other IF once Arroyo arrives, at 3B with Marte in RF is a better combo than Marte at 3B and one of the other OF options in RF.

I think Marte is a 3B first. Have Steer hold down 3B everyday from now through the end of 23. By then we’ll know what he is. If Steer’s bat plays but his glove doesn’t, you can move him to 1B or RF once Marte is ready. If both play really well you can consider moving Marte to RF.

Either way I totally agree that we’ll need at least one, if not two, corner OF to come from outside the current organization. Benintendi is an obvious target. Maybe there will be another free agent target this offseason or next.

Farmer should play C for the rest of this season and spell Stephenson next year.

[Bourgeois Zee]

What do you think about Marte in RF.

Marte in CF is my current choice.

He's got very good wheels and a very good arm. He's got a high baseball IQ, and he should be able to hit well enough to stick there.

I'd surround him with free agents, largely because I don't trust any of the OF currently in the upper minor leagues. (McGarry is interesting. So is Hopkins. Siani is also interesting, but for a different reason. None of them are anywhere close to sure things.)

The infield, I feel better about. Lots of optiuons, many of them high-end.

Were I Krall, I'd be looking hard at young OF options, young(ish) catchers, and (all sorts of) pitching.

[OldFashionedRed]

Down the stretch of a dreadful season are we really going To make 2023 decisions on

1. Barrero….let’s hope the kid sticks as opening day SS. He needs to establish some relevance even if we move him later on to make room for kids. I’d gauge he’ll be sub 700 ops when it’s over

* He's got the physical tools, plays great defense. Something about him makes me think of Eric Davis. Haha I'm dreaming.

2. Senzel../after w nice resurgence thru June…he’s thudding back down to earth. 650 Ops and his awful power is a problem. If he falters…now we need to add CF we lost of holes at the MLB level

* Great energy, bring him off the bench

3. Fraley….man it’d be nice to see him stabilize and be a dependent platoon OF But he looks more like a guy you’re waiving then filling a hole on roster


4. Dunn….I sort of thought he’d was decent in his first action. We need some body to pick up two wide open rotation slots for 2023

5. Is Aquino a legit 2023 option? I’ve seen his sub .200 batting average and sporadic power enough.

* Aquino is liking swinging with the fattest wiffleball at a pinata, he's got a lot of power, have they EVER designated someone to work with him? Didn't he change his stance this year or last? I remember something about that, about opening his stance?

Are Almora, Reynolds, legit for 2023 as well ?

* Almora brings great defense all over, speed.

[WildcatFan]

Not knocking anybody who's posted this, but I would absolutely love to see the full list of Reds prospects from the past 30 years who people have said "reminded them of Eric Davis." It's got to be north of 15.

[mth123]

Not knocking anybody who's posted this, but I would absolutely love to see the full list of Reds prospects from the past 30 years who people have said "reminded them of Eric Davis." It's got to be north of 15.

For me the list is just 2.

Reggie Sanders
Elly de la Cruz.

If de la Cruz "only" ends up being Reggie Sanders, that would be quite a great thing for Reds baseball.

[InsaneinthBrame]

Not knocking anybody who's posted this, but I would absolutely love to see the full list of Reds prospects from the past 30 years who people have said "reminded them of Eric Davis." It's got to be north of 15.

Unfortunately too many of them have reminded me of Paul Householder and Brandon Larson