Dodging bullets vs. losing value

[UK Reds Fan]

Now that we're over 100 games into 2022....looking at Reds we didn't retain from last year dropping Wade Miley, Tucker Barnhardt, Jessie Winker, Nick Castellanos, Eugenio Suarez, Sonny Gray, Lorenzen and Amir Garrett

Good years:
Sonny Gray 18 starts 6-3 3.19 ERA.....$10M
Suarez 753 OPS...and played all year....$11M

Not so good years:
Castellanos 686 OPS $20M
Barnhardt 494 OPS.....$7.5
Winker 711 OPS..on and off DL.....$3.1M
Wade Miley 2.84 ERA...but only 19 innings ...$10M
Michael Lorenzen....5.0ish ERA...and he's pitched a ton...$6.7M
Amir Garrett....5.ish ERA..been on/off DL...$2.5M

So we avoid $71M of potential payroll for 1 year (and some longer term contracts needed to keep those players..i.e. Castellanos)...and we take on 10M in salary for Mike Minor. For the loss of payroll, we obtain Chase PEtty (decent season in A ball), Brandon Williamson (not so good year in AA ball), Justin Dunn (pretty bad year at AAA), Jake Fraley (pretty "meh" year in AAA).

So it sounds like we mostly avoided bad contracts more than good players/contracts. But in the end, I don't see a ton of value in the prospects we go for shedding payroll. I can easily see all of the guys we obtained...not maybe a decent relief pitcher is all we got in the end.

[Big Klu]

Michael Lorenzen may have been the CF we have been looking for, though.

[CaiGuy]

Now that we're over 100 games into 2022....looking at Reds we didn't retain from last year dropping Wade Miley, Tucker Barnhardt, Jessie Winker, Nick Castellanos, Eugenio Suarez, Sonny Gray, Lorenzen and Amir Garrett

Good years:
Sonny Gray 18 starts 6-3 3.19 ERA.....$10M
Suarez 753 OPS...and played all year....$11M

Not so good years:
Castellanos 686 OPS $20M
Barnhardt 494 OPS.....$7.5
Winker 711 OPS..on and off DL.....$3.1M
Wade Miley 2.84 ERA...but only 19 innings ...$10M
Michael Lorenzen....5.0ish ERA...and he's pitched a ton...$6.7M
Amir Garrett....5.ish ERA..been on/off DL...$2.5M

So we avoid $71M of potential payroll for 1 year (and some longer term contracts needed to keep those players..i.e. Castellanos)...and we take on 10M in salary for Mike Minor. For the loss of payroll, we obtain Chase PEtty (decent season in A ball), Brandon Williamson (not so good year in AA ball), Justin Dunn (pretty bad year at AAA), Jake Fraley (pretty "meh" year in AAA).

So it sounds like we mostly avoided bad contracts more than good players/contracts. But in the end, I don't see a ton of value in the prospects we go for shedding payroll. I can easily see all of the guys we obtained...not maybe a decent relief pitcher is all we got in the end.

A few of those guys were FA's, so they were free to sign elsewhere and couldn't bring anything back regardless.

You would also need to include Nick Quintana (For Tucker) and Connor Phillips (who was also included in, and was probably the best part of, the Winker/Suarez deal) as part of the return.

I would say the FA's weren't worth resigning (Castellanos and Lorenzen) and can't bring anything back so no big mistake there. Including Suarez in on the Winker deal for salary relief was terrible, and giving away Miley was unwise regardless of his health in retrospect. He could have at least brought back a prospect. The return for Grey was light for a pitcher of his talent. I would have kept him in place of Minor and non-tendered Garrett. It was probably the right time to trade Winker. I like Barnhart, but he wouldn't have helped much if he stayed.

[TRF]

I think Petty having the year he had at 18-19 at the level he had it is more than "decent".

[757690]

Williamson is still considered a top 100 MLB prospect on most lists. Phillips may join him this offseason. It’s way too early to draw any conclusions on any of the prospects acquired in the off season trades, but most of them still have strong trade value at the very least.

[JCM11]

Chase Petty might be my favorite pitching prospect in the Reds system. I do wish we had got a guy closer to the majors for Sonny, but Petty is barely 19 and already in A+ ball. The only real mistake they made seems to be the return for Winker as Williamson has been a letdown. He could still turn out to be a useful MLB guy, but it's pretty clear he's no Lodolo. I think they could have a got a better haul for Wink, and moved Geno in a separate deal. I do like Phillips, and I think Fraley is useful as a platoon corner OF.

Of all the dozen or so deals the Reds have made the past year that Naquin return may end up being the best pound for pound move we made. The Drury trade also has a chance to be a home run.

[CaiGuy]

Even though I agree that Chase Petty is a petty (pun) solid prospect, the more I think about the Sonny Gray trade I hate it. Grey has been solid when healthy this year and is looking good going into the stretch. And he has a team-friendly option for 2023. He could have been that vet to help the Reds' rookie pitchers next year, or at least could have brought another really good return (multiple prospects) at the deadline.

[RedTeamGo!]

Michael Lorenzen may have been the CF we have been looking for, though.

Take your "like" and get outta here

[JCM11]

Even though I agree that Chase Petty is a petty (pun) solid prospect, the more I think about the Sonny Gray trade I hate it. Grey has been solid when healthy this year and is looking good going into the stretch. And he has a team-friendly option for 2023. He could have been that vet to help the Reds' rookie pitchers next year, or at least could have brought another really good return (multiple prospects) at the deadline.

The dumbest thing was turning around and taking on Minor for the same amount Sonny is making this year. Plus Gray's 2023 contract is a team option without a buyout included. Most of the moves this past off season reeked of panic moves.