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Thread: Reds Offense 2022

  1. #1
    Member Ron Madden's Avatar
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    Reds Offense 2022

    Kyle Farmer said Saturday that he has goals set for himself in 2022. Among them? “Instead of a certain average - hard-hit balls, barreled balls," Farmer said.

    You can count Farmer's line-drive homer Saturday night among that description. During the Reds’ 6-3 win over the Padres, Votto also added a pair of RBI hits, the first of which was a scalded double down the right-field line.

    Votto followed that up Sunday with a gargantuan blast in the second inning of Cincinnati's 15-4 win over Arizona at Salt River Fields that went a Statcast-projected 465 feet after coming off the bat at 111.9 mph. His second at-bat resulted in an RBI double that was sizzled to right field at 107.8 mph.

    “He’s really committed to getting off to a good start,” Reds manager David Bell said. “Seeing that happen for him is just impressive. Everything about him, everything he does is impressive.”

    The hardest-hit ball of Sunday belonged to outfielder Aristides Aquino, who stamped his mark in pursuit of an Opening Day roster spot by clubbing a grand slam in the second that had a 114.9 mph exit velocity. Tommy Pham and Cristian Santana also each hit a home run as Cincinnati delivered its highest scoring output of Cactus League play.

    “Joey and Moose have a lot of power, and so does India, so I think it’s going to be a lot of fun to watch,” Farmer said of the team’s power potential entering 2022.

    “That Kyle Farmer and Nick Senzel are at the bottom, it says a lot about the rest of the guys,” Bell said. “It’s a lineup that gets on base. Clearly, there’s guys in the middle of the order that can drive ‘em in, and hopefully we can start that process back over at the bottom of the order. I would say it’s a well-balanced lineup.”
    Jesse Borek, reds.com
    Last edited by Ron Madden; 04-04-2022 at 11:38 AM.


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    Member mth123's Avatar
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    Re: 2022 Reds Offense

    I actually think there is enough upside with Senzel and Moose and maybe Pham that the offense won't be as terrible as we fear it will. Those guys can make up some of what was lost in Castellanos and Winker. I'm much more concerned about the Starting pitching (and the bullpen).

    Not saying the offense will be top 5 or anything, but I think they can score enough to win with a solid rotation. They no longer have a solid rotation.
    All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!

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    Re: 2022 Reds Offense

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    I actually think there is enough upside with Senzel and Moose and maybe Pham that the offense won't be as terrible as we fear it will. Those guys can make up some of what was lost in Castellanos and Winker. I'm much more concerned about the Starting pitching (and the bullpen).

    Not saying the offense will be top 5 or anything, but I think they can score enough to win with a solid rotation. They no longer have a solid rotation.


    Fangraphs has the Reds projected as 14th in MLB and 7th in the NL for RS/Game. They have them giving up the 6th most runs/game in MLB. So yeah, that seems right.

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  7. #4
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    Re: Reds Offense 2022

    I think the offence can be middle of the pack in MLB. So 6-8 range in the NL. Problem with the team will be pitching. I expect the pen to be better but obviously the rotation will be far worse.
    I expect Greene to take his lumps. Vlad has no put away pitch. He most likely will struggle. Sanmartin I expect to not be very good. Minor just a head scratching addition. Fly ball pitcher who wasn't good in a pitchers park.
    The offense may struggle with all the injuries popping up.
    It's going to be a heavy platoon lineup. At least 3 spots. Possibly 4 of the 9.
    A couple years from now. The pitching has a chance to be really good though.

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    Re: Reds Offense 2022

    My worry is just how thin the offense is. If everybody stays healthy and performs more or less at their ability, it should be solid, maybe even slightly above average. But that's not going to happen. Can Votto maintain his resurgence? Can India and Stephenson sustain or improve, avoiding sophomore regression? Can Nick Senzel be made of something other than glass? Can Moustakas and Fraley post reasonably normal BABIPs? Can Naquin sustain his? Can Aquino do something other than homer and strike out? Will Barrero get healthy and show he belongs? Is there any money to pursue an upgrade should the need arise?

    Meanwhile, the cavalry in AAA consists of Brandon Drury, TJ Friedl, Alejo Lopez, and Jake Bauers. Not exactly a group to dream on.

    Point is, while there's a reasonable amount of talent on the opening day roster, I see A LOT more downside variance than upside. Answer just 3 or 4 of those questions above with a 'no' and it's hard to see things going well. It feels like the offense of a team projected to win 76 games but who talks themselves into seeing themselves as on the cusp of being a 90 win team while winning 66 is a stronger possibility.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 04-04-2022 at 12:36 PM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Re: Reds Offense 2022

    Reds offense against RHP looks pretty good, though without big power hitters. A decent mix of LHH and good hitting righties, Pham, India, Stephenson, who can handle righties adequately.

    Reds offense against LHP, a problem last year, looks worse without Castellanos and with Solano injury. I don’t see Aquino, Garcia, and Drury as likely answers in that platoon.

    And, as RMR says, the offensive depth isn’t there. Especially since Reds’ offensive prospects are mostly inexperienced and haven’t completed AA or AAA as of yet.

    Now that Suarez has moved on, Reds should maintain more rallies with more contact. They still have some high strikeout hitters, but not in the main lineup against RHP. Aquino and Garcia are high strikeout hitters in lesser roles.
    Last edited by Kc61; 04-04-2022 at 01:41 PM.

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    Re: Reds Offense 2022

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post

    Now that Suarez has moved on, Reds should maintain more rallies with more contact. They still have some high strikeout hitters, but not in the main lineup against RHP. Aquino and Garcia are high strikeout hitters in lesser roles.

    Strikeouts weren't really an issue last year, they were about MLB average.

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    Re: Reds Offense 2022

    Quote Originally Posted by LeatherPants View Post
    Strikeouts weren't really an issue last year, they were about MLB average.
    The problem isn’t the overall number of strikeouts, though the fewer the better.

    The problem is having certain hitters who strike out so often that they become rally killers time and again.

    Suarez was such a hitter who was plopped into the middle of the lineup almost every day. And when he played, less often, Aquino too.

    I”d like to see the Reds have fewer and fewer of those types of hitters. Until there are none.

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    Re: Reds Offense 2022

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    The problem isn’t the overall number of strikeouts, though the fewer the better.

    The problem is having certain hitters who strike out so often that they become rally killers time and again.

    Suarez was such a hitter who was plopped into the middle of the lineup almost every day. And when he played, less often, Aquino too.

    I”d like to see the Reds have fewer and fewer of those types of hitters. Until there are none.
    Who scares you like that? Outside of Moose, Farmer and Naquin, I’m not seeing any OBP impaired guys. Two out of those 3 I listed have power to spare and likely won’t be playing against matchups that pitch with the same handiness that they bat. In those cases Solano from DH to 3b and Aquino in RF. Solano can get on base and Aquino fairs very well against lefties.

    I get your sentiment, but in today’s MLB, you’re not going to get a lot of guys that limit the Ks. I think the Reds did a fairly good job of getting guys that get on base, and the guys who don’t can run into one. The only weak link is Farmer. If Bell manages platoons correctly, that could bode well.

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    Re: Reds Offense 2022

    Quote Originally Posted by Old school 1983 View Post
    Who scares you like that? Outside of Moose, Farmer and Naquin, I’m not seeing any OBP impaired guys. Two out of those 3 I listed have power to spare and likely won’t be playing against matchups that pitch with the same handiness that they bat. In those cases Solano from DH to 3b and Aquino in RF. Solano can get on base and Aquino fairs very well against lefties.

    I get your sentiment, but in today’s MLB, you’re not going to get a lot of guys that limit the Ks. I think the Reds did a fairly good job of getting guys that get on base, and the guys who don’t can run into one. The only weak link is Farmer. If Bell manages platoons correctly, that could bode well.
    Aquino against lefties last season - .198/.316/.444/.761 with a 28.6% K rate. That’s against LEFTIES.

    His lifetime split is better because of his early success. Good luck with that.

    I’ll cut Aramis Garcia some slack because he only has 200 PAs in the majors. But lifetime a 39% K rate and a 3.7% walk rate.

    Those are the two guys I have in mind.
    Last edited by Kc61; 04-04-2022 at 03:38 PM.

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    Re: Reds Offense 2022

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Aquino against lefties last season - .198/.316/.444/.761 with a 28.6% K rate. That’s against LEFTIES.

    His lifetime split is better because of his early success. Good luck with that.
    .761 isn’t a hateful OPS for a backup outfield. Yes it’s very power driven. But you can pick his spots. You’re acting like he’s a middle of the lineup starter. He’s outfielder #5 that gets spot starts against lefties or brings power from the bench.

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    Re: Reds Offense 2022

    Quote Originally Posted by Old school 1983 View Post
    .761 isn’t a hateful OPS for a backup outfield. Yes it’s very power driven. But you can pick his spots. You’re acting like he’s a middle of the lineup starter. He’s outfielder #5 that gets spot starts against lefties or brings power from the bench.
    Aquino’s role is to destroy lefties. He’s the Reds lefty masher. .761 doesn’t do it. Not even close.

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    Re: Reds Offense 2022

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Aquino’s role is to destroy lefties. He’s the Reds lefty masher. .761 doesn’t do it. Not even close.
    2/3 of the starting outfield is right handed. I think he’ll be fine as a 5th outfielder. Not ideal. But fine. But if we’re picking nits about 5th outfielders, this lineup is better than a lot want to give it credit for.

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    Re: Reds Offense 2022

    Quote Originally Posted by Old school 1983 View Post
    2/3 of the starting outfield is right handed. I think he’ll be fine as a 5th outfielder. Not ideal. But fine. But if we’re picking nits about 5th outfielders, this lineup is better than a lot want to give it credit for.
    Except that the Reds were poor against LHP last year. And that was WITH the excellent Castellanos.

    The notion that Aquino, Garcia and Drury are going to fix this is a huge reach.

    I will give them credit for Solano whose stint with the SF Giants was productive.

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    Re: Reds Offense 2022

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Except that the Reds were poor against LHP last year. And that was WITH the excellent Castellanos.

    The notion that Aquino, Garcia and Drury are going to fix this is a huge reach.

    I will give them credit for Solano whose stint with the SF Giants was productive.
    OTOH, Winker was pretty bad against LHP so there is some offset there. Tommy Pham should be a big upgrade over Winker vs. LHP. The fix for Castellanos is mostly going to have to come from Senzel IMO. Its a big if though, both healthwise and stepping forward in production. That leaves Solano as a decent upgrade over Suarez. Farmer, India, Stephenson and Votto are probably break-even compared to last year. Aquino and Garcia are questions but probably as good as others they used last year (including Aquino himself). Fewer PA by Naquin vs. LHP should help as well. I don't think its completely terrible. IMO, Senzel is the key against LHP.

    Making up for Winker vs. RHP seems the bigger challenge on a year over year basis.
    All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!

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