I could see the Reds picking 10th. Can't even tank right.Originally Posted by Kc61
I could see the Reds picking 10th. Can't even tank right.
All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!
Kc61 (10-01-2022),REDREAD (10-02-2022),Revering4Blue (10-03-2022)
I am absolutely rooting for the worst-case scenario. I want them to have the very worst and most disadvantageous pick possible, because it is what they deserve for being incompetent and parsimonious. They should not be rewarded for being cheap.
Eric Stratton, Rush Chairman. Damn glad to meet ya.
cumberlandreds (10-03-2022),Falls City Beer (10-02-2022),Slyder (10-04-2022)
Pirates and Reds tied at 60-99
What would you say.....ya do here?
I believe Pirates have the tiebreaker and would get third place in lottery odds, based on 2021 record. Three games to go for both teams.
Prediction:
The Reds are going to screw this up too. They will sweep the Cubs at home, end up with 99 loses, and in the 4th position for the draft lottery.
Hoping to change my username to 75769024
I've lost track of exactly what MLB has done to the draft. Since it's a lottery, what's the lowest the Reds can end up picking?
ETA: Never mind - read up higher. Can pick as low as 10th. That's hilarious. Just, well done, Castellinis.
Well, that's what those words mean. He was here. If they don't keep him, he will have been lost/subtracted. I headed out the door today with two shoes on my feet. If I don't return with them, I have lost them. If I do return with them, I haven't added them. ---M2
REDREAD (10-03-2022)
Just to update, Reds mathematically can finish with second, third or fourth place in draft lottery odds. Tigers and Royals both will finish with a better record than Reds. Remember, first - third worst records have the same (best) odds to get the first pick.
Reds are tied with Pirates who play three at home with Cards. Pirates have the tiebreaker.
Reds mathematically could tie the A’s, and Reds would have the tiebreaker. Oakland with 102 losses. Oakland had the better 2021 record. But this would require Reds to lose three and Oakland to sweep Angels in Oakland. Remote.
Three way tie? Guessing Reds would finish in third place due to 2021 records, but let’s run that down if it comes to pass.
Last edited by Kc61; 10-03-2022 at 09:05 AM.
You're right.
If it's a three-way tie among Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, and Oakland, the Pirates would have second position, the Reds third, and the A's fourth.
i was just about to ask what the tiebreaker would be for the reds and pirates. so, it's whoever had the worst record last year would get the higher pick? damn. i wish it was H2H this year.
RedTeamGo! (10-03-2022)
you gotta admit, whatever happens, the reds went full bore these past couple weeks trying to get the best draft pick possible (i know not really, but sure looks that way at times).
REDREAD (10-03-2022),RedTeamGo! (10-03-2022)
So Reds and Pirates remain tied for third/fourth draft lottery position - both with (untimely?) wins tonight.
They are locked into those two spots, just a question of who is three and who is four. Pirates would get tiebreaker.
Come on Reds: lose both these games. Do it. You won the Greene game. These two are absolutely meaningless. I want to see the worst lineup possible today.
You can do itttttt
What would you say.....ya do here?
REDREAD (10-04-2022)
The difference between 3rd & 4th is 16.5% odds (which is the same as 1st & 2nd) and 13.25% odds. FWIW.
One thing to keep in mind with the lottery is a counter-intuitive dynamic. As a team near the top of the draft, your average draft position will be a few spots lower than your rank of odds to to win. That is, it is more likely than not that the Reds will draft 4th place or lower because the collective odds of the other teams are much greater to land a high spot than the Reds' odds. The single likeliest pick # for us 7th. Once you get in to that top part of the lottery, the marginal advantages are pretty small.
https://www.tankathon.com/mlb/pick_odds
%Chance by Pick (if Reds stay in 4th)
1: 13.2%
2: 13.1%
3: 12.9%
4: 12.4%
5: 11.7%
6: 10.6%
7: 15.7%
8: 9.0%
9: 1.2%
10: >0.0%
Last edited by RedsManRick; 10-04-2022 at 12:03 PM.
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
lollipopcurve (10-04-2022),mth123 (10-04-2022)
... But I don't want that to be true.
Yes, but if you finish with the third worst record isnt 7th the worst you can do while if you finish 4th 10th is the worst?
What would you say.....ya do here?
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