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Thread: "Lose For Crews"

  1. #511
    Member mth123's Avatar
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    Re: "Lose For Crews"

    Quote Originally Posted by RedTeamGo! View Post
    Was Votto projected to be a hall of famer? (The answer is no) With that said, yeah, EDLC looks pretty damned special.

    As for the pitching piece, Greene, Lodolo, and Ashcraft just graduated.
    You have those three guys and Diaz. 9 other pitching spots to fill. This staff would lose 85 games on a team with a top offense. So if the current team is the starting point, the fact that they have Greene, Lodolo and Ashcraft doesn't matter. They're a terrible team with them. What's coming to supplement them? Lots of position guys but very little pitching. That's the entire point. When looking for outside acquisitions, starting pitching is easily the biggest need. Hopefully you can add Antone and he stays healthy and his arm rebounds from a second TJ surgery and maybe you get a couple relievers from the minor league starter group. Cessa can be a swingman if you want to pay him. The last two spots in the rotation are brutally bad, The middle of the bullpen is a disaster.

    Want to fix it? Go get more starting pitching. Allow Cessa to help the pen instead of using him as a starter. Allow guys like Boyle and Williamson to fast track as hard throwing relievers for short stints instead of waiting another year hoping they gain what they need to be a big league starter.

    Those teams prior to 2010 had Ceuto and Bailey coming to add to Arroyo. They prioritized more pitching when they drafted Leake and traded for Latos. That's when those team became really good. So if Greene, Lodolo and Ashcraft are essentially Cueto, Bailey and Arroyo, they still need to add new versions Latos and Leake if this team is to be a serious contender. I agree about Elly De La Cruz. He's coming so is Encarnacion-Strand, McLain, and eventualy Marte and Arroyo. Stephenson will be back, Votto too. I expect a better year from India. Steer, Fraley, Friedl, Fairchild and Farmer can all play a role. Barrero still needs PT. I think what they need to fix the position side is largely in house (but they will still need a couple of additions). That's why pitching needs to be the priority.
    Last edited by mth123; 10-01-2022 at 10:46 AM.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

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  4. #512
    Member Bourgeois Zee's Avatar
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    Re: "Lose For Crews"

    Quote Originally Posted by LeatherPants View Post
    Not an extensive search, but just so everyone has the information handy, here’s where some of where the Reds farm system were ranked over the years. I haven’t found a central location to find these, so it’s a mixture:

    Keith Law 16th, Jan 2014
    Keith Law 17th, Jan 2015
    John Sickles 14th, April 2015
    Keith Law 12th, Feb 2016
    Baseball America 12th, Feb 2016
    ESPN 8th, Jan 2017
    MLB Pipeline 9th, Feb 2017
    John Sickles 14th, Feb 2017
    ESPN 8th, Jan 2018
    Bleacher Report 9th, Jan 2018
    ESPN 6th, Feb 2019
    Baseball America 25th, Aug 2020
    ESPN 20th, Feb 2022
    MLB Pipeline 4th, Aug 2022
    This is a fun stroll down amnesia lane. Lots of well-regarded guys here. Let's start with the top 10 rankings (largely because that's where the rubber is likely to meet the road):

    The 2017 minor league class included a nearly-ready Luis Castillo and Jesse Winker, Tyler Mahle (having just finished his first foray into AA), a recently-signed Taylor Trammell and Tony Santillan, and a whole host of young pitchers (Robert Stephenson, Cody Reed, Amir Garrett, Sal Romano), plus a dominating low A/ Pioneer League Nick Senzel. No one should have an issue with that rankings-- it compares quite nicely with others in baseball in that respect.

    The 2018 rankings added Hunter Greene and Jeter Downs to a dominant AA Mahle (perhaps the best minor league season of the past 20 years for a SP in Cincinnati), plus the aforementioned Stephenson and Winker (who'd only played 40-ish games in the majors the season before and was largely still viewed as a prospect). This is the beginning of the Greene/ Tyler Stephenson era-- two prospects who are a long, long way away from the major leagues, toiling in the minors, and still well thought of. It looks like both will end up pretty solid players, fwiw, and both are still remarkably young.

    The 2019 ranking added 2018 draftees Jonathan India and Josiah Gray to the mix and lost Winker and Mahle as prospects. India became the ROY.



    What's interesting is that the emergence of prospects Castillo, Winker, Mahle, et al., largely was a driving force why the Reds went to the playoffs in 2020 and 2021. Too, they were able to deal from that storehouse of prospects for Trevor Bauer and Sonny Gray. It's apparent that better prospects (and better prospect farm rankings) probably mean better teams.

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  6. #513
    Daffy Duck RedTeamGo!'s Avatar
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    Re: "Lose For Crews"

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    You have those three guys and Diaz. 9 other pitching spots to fill. This staff would lose 85 games on a team with a top offense. So if the current team is the starting point, the fact that they have Greene, Lodolo and Ashcraft doesn't matter. They're a terrible team with them. What's coming to supplement them? Lots of position guys but very little pitching. That's the entire point. When looking for outside acquisitions, starting pitching is easily the biggest need. Hopefully you can add Antone and he stays healthy and his arm rebounds from a second TJ surgery and maybe you get a couple relievers from the minor league starter group. Cessa can be a swingman if you want to pay him. The last two spots in the rotation are brutally bad, The middle of the bullpen is a disaster.

    Want to fix it? Go get more starting pitching. Allow Cessa to help the pen instead of using him as a starter. Allow guys like Boyle and Williamson to fast track as hard throwing relievers for short stints instead of waiting another year hoping they gain what they need to be a big league starter.

    Those teams prior to 2010 had Ceuto and Bailey coming to add to Arroyo. They prioritized more pitching when they drafted Leake and traded for Latos. That's when those team became really good. So if Greene, Lodolo and Ashcraft are essentially Cueto, Bailey and Arroyo, they still need to add new versions Latos and Leake if this team is to be a serious contender. I agree about Elly De La Cruz. He's coming so is Encarnacion-Strand, McLain, and eventualy Marte and Arroyo. Stephenson will be back, Votto too. I expect a better year from India. Steer, Fraley, Friedl, Fairchild and Farmer can all play a role. Barrero still needs PT. I think what they need to fix the position side is largely in house (but they will still need a couple of additions). That's why pitching needs to be the priority.
    I absolutely agree the reds need to add from outside the org if/when the window opens. I donít think anyone disagrees with that point. Who is saying otherwise?
    What would you say.....ya do here?

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    Old school 1983 (10-01-2022)

  8. #514
    Member kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: "Lose For Crews"

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post
    This is a fun stroll down amnesia lane. Lots of well-regarded guys here. Let's start with the top 10 rankings (largely because that's where the rubber is likely to meet the road):

    The 2017 minor league class included a nearly-ready Luis Castillo and Jesse Winker, Tyler Mahle (having just finished his first foray into AA), a recently-signed Taylor Trammell and Tony Santillan, and a whole host of young pitchers (Robert Stephenson, Cody Reed, Amir Garrett, Sal Romano), plus a dominating low A/ Pioneer League Nick Senzel. No one should have an issue with that rankings-- it compares quite nicely with others in baseball in that respect.

    The 2018 rankings added Hunter Greene and Jeter Downs to a dominant AA Mahle (perhaps the best minor league season of the past 20 years for a SP in Cincinnati), plus the aforementioned Stephenson and Winker (who'd only played 40-ish games in the majors the season before and was largely still viewed as a prospect). This is the beginning of the Greene/ Tyler Stephenson era-- two prospects who are a long, long way away from the major leagues, toiling in the minors, and still well thought of. It looks like both will end up pretty solid players, fwiw, and both are still remarkably young.

    The 2019 ranking added 2018 draftees Jonathan India and Josiah Gray to the mix and lost Winker and Mahle as prospects. India became the ROY.



    What's interesting is that the emergence of prospects Castillo, Winker, Mahle, et al., largely was a driving force why the Reds went to the playoffs in 2020 and 2021. Too, they were able to deal from that storehouse of prospects for Trevor Bauer and Sonny Gray. It's apparent that better prospects (and better prospect farm rankings) probably mean better teams.
    That’s a pretty awful hit rate on your Top-10 prospects over a decade. If there were five teams with worse results over those 10 years I’d be stunned. Couple that with the cheapness and that’s why things stand the way they do.

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  10. #515
    Daffy Duck RedTeamGo!'s Avatar
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    Re: "Lose For Crews"

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    That’s a pretty awful hit rate on your Top-10 prospects over a decade. If there were five teams with worse results over those 10 years I’d be stunned. Couple that with the cheapness and that’s why things stand the way they do.
    Senzel is going to be infamous on here for the rest of our lives. This is how conversations about reds prospect is going to for next 20 years:

    “Wow, the Reds have some really good looking prospects on the farm”

    “Oh, just like Nick Senzel??”
    What would you say.....ya do here?

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  12. #516
    Be the ball Roy Tucker's Avatar
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    Re: "Lose For Crews"

    Quote Originally Posted by RedTeamGo! View Post
    Senzel is going to be infamous on here for the rest of our lives. This is how conversations about reds prospect is going to for next 20 years:

    “Wow, the Reds have some really good looking prospects on the farm”

    “Oh, just like Nick Senzel??”
    I thought the July version we saw might have been his liftoff. But then the August version hit with a dull thud and the September version was even worse.
    Transport me to the orb match.

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  14. #517
    Man Pills Falls City Beer's Avatar
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    Re: "Lose For Crews"

    Quote Originally Posted by RedTeamGo! View Post
    I absolutely agree the reds need to add from outside the org if/when the window opens. I don’t think anyone disagrees with that point. Who is saying otherwise?
    The people who thought that nuking an 83 win team was prudent.
    The owl of Minerva flies only at dusk.

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  16. #518
    Daffy Duck RedTeamGo!'s Avatar
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    Re: "Lose For Crews"

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    The people who thought that nuking an 83 win team was prudent.
    So, nobody? Acknowledging what is going on does not = supporting it.
    What would you say.....ya do here?

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    Old school 1983 (10-01-2022)

  18. #519
    Man Pills Falls City Beer's Avatar
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    Re: "Lose For Crews"

    Quote Originally Posted by RedTeamGo! View Post
    So, nobody? Acknowledging what is going on does not = supporting it.
    Oh ok. Lol.
    The owl of Minerva flies only at dusk.

  19. #520
    Member mth123's Avatar
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    Re: "Lose For Crews"

    Quote Originally Posted by RedTeamGo! View Post
    I absolutely agree the reds need to add from outside the org if/when the window opens. I don’t think anyone disagrees with that point. Who is saying otherwise?
    A bunch of people, not you, in about three or four threads.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

  20. #521
    Daffy Duck RedTeamGo!'s Avatar
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    Re: "Lose For Crews"

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    Oh ok. Lol.
    Some folks just like talking about baseball without whining like my 3 year old daughter constantly. Crazy. I know.
    What would you say.....ya do here?

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  22. #522
    Be the ball Roy Tucker's Avatar
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    Re: "Lose For Crews"

    Quote Originally Posted by RedTeamGo! View Post
    Some folks just like talking about baseball without whining like my 3 year old daughter constantly. Crazy. I know.
    Just wait till she’s a teenager.
    Transport me to the orb match.

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  24. #523
    Man Pills Falls City Beer's Avatar
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    Re: "Lose For Crews"

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    A bunch of people, not you, in about three or four threads.
    There are very visible people saying that they should have torn down the 83 win team. Not needed to. But should have. Maybe you think they should have taken the Cardinals/Braves/Giants route of reloading instead of tearing it down to the studs. But that’s not been clear in any discussion this season. My sense is that you’re pretty pleased with Krall’s stewardship and deals.
    The owl of Minerva flies only at dusk.

  25. #524
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: "Lose For Crews"

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    If they can develop them, itís a great thing. But itís not even close to a guarantee of anything. Iíd rather have a front office hell bent on winning and an empty farm than the Redsí current farm and absolutely no interest in winning.
    Yep, with roughly 1/3 of all MLB not really caring if they win or not.. it's not nearly as hard to win as it used to be.
    [Phil ] Castellini celebrated the team's farm system and noted the team had promising prospects who would one day be great Reds -- and then joke then they'd be ex-Reds, saying "of course we're going to lose them". #SellTheTeamBob

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  26. #525
    Member Old school 1983's Avatar
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    Re: "Lose For Crews"

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    The people who thought that nuking an 83 win team was prudent.
    No.


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