"Lose For Crews"

[Wonderful Monds]

One outfield bat, even someone as great as Soto moves the needle virtually nowhere in MLB. This team is threadbare. That team would look like the 2022 Nationals.

NBA/NFL =/= MLB

Even to that point, having a Soto level bat to root for in future seasons is more exciting and fun than not having one, no matter how much it moves the needle.

But they actually have a core in the minor leagues with a lot of potential (which I know you’re gonna dispute lol) so getting this Crews dude would be pretty helpful imo

[Falls City Beer]

I mean I guess I can’t imagine spending much time watching this current dumpster fire either lol. I don’t even get them on my current TV package which is now Sling.

Tomorrows cornfield extravaganza might be the last game I watch on purpose all season. Barring any unexpected call ups like a Elly call up in September or something.

That’s exactly what ownership wants. Checked out fans. No expectations, no need to bump payroll.

[mth123]

I just don’t buy for a second that the Reds will draft the best players even if they are in a position to do so. They’ve had good and bad drafts pretty recently. It’s not like they’ve permanently turned a corner.

Sure but having the opportunity to do so is better than helplessly watching somebody else pick the guy you want in front of you.

Doesn't mean I'm rooting for a loss on any individual day though.

[westofyou]

Marc elias was literally hired to follow the Astros model. They stated baldly it was a tank. And that was just the public statements. I even know from not-public statements. You are just laughably wrong.

https://twitter.com/buster_espn/stat...XPRzAzzN-U0uhw

[RedTeamGo!]

In fact, if I have to suffer through this level of embarrassment this team already achieved this season, I’d prefer they do it “right” and get the best possible player out of it. And shame the ownership as deeply as possible.

I hope they lose every remaining game tbh

Now we’re talking! Burn this house down!

[RedTeamGo!]

1. The odds that the Reds get the first pick are going to be extremely low whether they finish with the 3rd or 5th worst record. 16% vs. 10%.

2. Assuming they get the #1 pick, the difference between the player the Reds would draft with the #1 pick and the #5 pick is rather small.

Here are the #1 picks in the draft over the last 20 years:

Bryan Bullington
Delmon Young
Matt Bush
Justin Upton
Luke Hovhevar
David Price
Tim Bechham
Stephen Strasburg
Bryce Harper
Gerrit Cole
Carlos Correa
Mark Appel
Brady Aiken
Dansby Swanson
Mickey Montiak
Royce Lewis
Casey Mize
Adley Rutschman
Spencer Torkelson
Henry Davis
Jackson Holliday

Here are the #5 players taken in the draft over the last 20 years:

Clint Everts
Chris Lubanski
Mark Rogers
Ryan Braun
Brandon Morrow
Matt Wieters
Buster Posey
Matt Hobgood
Drew Pomeranz
Bubba Sterling
Kyle Zimmer
Jackson Frazier
Nick Gordon
Kyle Tucker
Corey Ray
Kyle Wright
Jonathan India
Riley Greene
Austin Martin
Colton Cowser
Elijah Green

With the first pick there were 7 players with at least 10 career WAR, 6 with at least 30 career WAR, 1 with at least 40 career WAR

With the fifth pick there were 6 players with at least 10 career WAR, 2 with at least 30 career WAR, 2 with at least 40 career WAR

An advantage with the first pick, but still lots of swings and misses. The draft is a crap shoot, no matter where you draft.

Did you know if you have the first pick in the first round you also have the first pick in the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th….. rounds? And did you know you will likely have the largest player payroll. And did you know if you have the first pick overall you can take literally any player you want? I mean, this isn’t rocket surgery.

And for your first point - there isn’t much difference between 16.50% and 10%? Hm nah.

[RedTeamGo!]

Yeah comparing a 19 year draft pick in baseball to a fully-developed NFL franchise quarterback is really pretty meaningless.

Crews will be a junior in college going into next years draft. Same age a lot of nfl 1st overall picks are. Yes, I know it’s different, mlb and nfl. However, sometimes it ain’t. Crews is looking like a sure-fire thing. People will point to Senzel, but he really wasn’t like this. He was a bit of a late riser IIRC. If I remember correctly going into that season he was not even expected to be a top 10 pick. He had a great season and the Reds got infatuated with him. I remember the board being pretty damned split on that pick. If the Reds have the number 1 pick next year I’ll be shocked if Crews isn’t a consensus number 1 type player for the entire college year.

[757690]

Did you know if you have the first pick in the first round you also have the first pick in the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th….. rounds? And did you know you will likely have the largest player payroll. And did you know if you have the first pick overall you can take literally any player you want? I mean, this isn’t rocket surgery.

And for your first point - there isn’t much difference between 16.50% and 10%? Hm nah.

Again, for both points, odds are low, extremely low. The draft has always been a crap shoot, now it’s crap shoot with a lottery. Odds got even lower.

If this was football, definitely worth losing to get the #1 pick.

But with MLB, your best shot is a 1 in 6 chance of getting the #1 pick. And the odds of that #1 pick being a difference maker is below 50%. A 1 on 6 chance of a maybe difference maker.

I’d rather focus on winning games.

[Kingspoint]

It's a lot more fun watching your kids grow when they are young than when they are teenagers.

[RedTeamGo!]

Again, for both points, odds are low, extremely low. The draft has always been a crap shoot, now it’s crap shoot with a lottery. Odds got even lower.

If this was football, definitely worth losing to get the #1 pick.

But with MLB, your best shot is a 1 in 6 chance of getting the #1 pick. And the odds of that #1 pick being a difference maker is below 50%. A 1 on 6 chance of a maybe difference maker.

I’d rather focus on winning games.

With TJ Zeuch and Matt Reynolds. How enthralling!

[KronoRed]

Does anyone really think this draft lottery won't be fixed? have a hard time seeing the Reds being the folded corner pick.

[Mitri]

Now that I've looked at the draft lottery odds, as well as the current standings, I really don't think it matters what happens to the Reds. Even without Castillo and Mahle, they're better than the A's and Nats and probably the Pirates. They'll probably finish with somewhere between the 3rd and 7th worst record, but would really have to stink to land in the top 3 anyway. And that only increases their chances 2.5% or something.

So I'd prefer for them to not completely tank in the final months and maybe even gather some momentum heading into '23. They'll still have a shot at a very high pick even if they win more than expected.

[Ron Madden]

You Play To Win The Game

[Benihana]

Crews would be a welcome addition to this organization.

I’d really like to get the best corner bat and/or the best college pitcher with their two first round picks.

[Assembly Hall]

Tank? No thank you.